D. Crookall . K. Arai (Eds.)
Global Interdependence
Simulation and Gaming Perspectives
Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference
of the International Simulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA)
Kyoto, Japan: 15-19 July 1991
Editorial Assistants
J.C. Hilbun· B.F. Harris
With 72 Illustrations
Springer-Verlag
Tokyo Berlin Heidelberg
New York London Paris
Hong Kong Barcelona
Dr. David Crookall
Department of English, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0244, USA
Dr. Kiyoshi Arai
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Kinki University, Kyushu,
Iizuka-shi, Fukuoka 820, Japan
Editorial Assistants
Joy C. Hilbun and Brenda F. Harris
University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0244, USA
ISBN-13:978-4-431-68191-5
e-ISBN-13:978-4-431-68189-2
DOl: 10.1007/978-4-431-68189-2
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. International Simulation and Gaming Association. International Conference (22nd : 1991 : Kyoto, Japan) Global interdependence: simulation,
gaming, and perspectives : proceedings of the 22nd International Conference of the International
Simulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA), Kyoto, Japan, 15-19 July 1991 / D. Crookall,
K. Arai, eds.; editorial assistants, J.C. Hilbun, B.F. Harris. p.
cm.
Includes bibliographical
references. ISBN-13:978-4-431-68191-5
1. Game theory - Congresses.
2. Simulation methods-Congresses. 3. Intercultural
communication-Congresses. 4. Economic development-Mathematical models-Congresses.
5. Economics-Mathematical models-Congresses. 6. Environmental policy-Mathematical
. HBl44.I58 1991.
models-Congresses. I. Crookall, David. II. Arai, K. (Kiyoshi), 1950519.3-dc20. 92-5641
© Springer-Verlag Tokyo 1992
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1992
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material
is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
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The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the
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Typesetting, printing and binding: Best-set Typesetter Ltd., Hong Kong
Welcome Messages
I wish to express a most heartfelt welcome to our distinguished visitors from all
over the world, who have come to attend this 22nd Annual International
Conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association, cosponsored by the Science Council of Japan and the Japanese Association of
Simulation and Gaming. I am sure the conference will be a tremendous
success.
Toshiki Kaifu
Prime Minister
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Congratulations to the ISAGA'91 organizers for your outstanding international
leadership on hosting the conference on the theme of Global Modeling for
Solving Global Problems. Please extend my best wishes to all ISAGA participants now in Kyoto.
Harold Guetzkow
Northwestern University
Post -Conference Reflections
The Science Council of Japan was established in 1949 as a governmental
organization, representing 530,000 qualified Japanese scientists, both domestically and internationally, and covering all scientific fields from the cultural
and social to the natural sciences. The aim of the Council is to promote
scientific development and to help improve administration, industry, and the
well-being of the general public through science.
As President of the Council, I am pleased that it was able to sponsor the
22nd Annual International Conference of the International Simulation and
Gaming Association, in cooperation with the Japanese Association of Simulation and Gaming (which is registered with the council). It was an extraordinary
pleasure for me to have had the opportunity of being with such distinguished
scientists from around the world, and to have listened to their lectures and
presentations on their many achievements.
The field simulation and gaming has been developing in step with advances
in computer technology, and has become a valid scientific method for making
predictions about the future using sophisticated computerized models to
simulate complex natural and social phenomena. Today, this methodology is
becoming increasingly important in many areas, such as the prediction of
global environmental problems in the 21st century, the future prospects of
the world economy and international politics, and the evaluation of business
strategies.
The science of simulation and gaming in Japan has been gaining international reputation in some areas, such as pioneering studies for predicting
the lessening of international political tensions and predictive research concerning the world economy. Global simulation models, such as the FUGI
Model, are based on quantitative descriptions of dependence among many
nations.
The applications of simulation/gaming methodologies, however, are spread
across a wide range of scientific fields; this makes the recently recognized need
for cooperation among the researchers even more urgent. Fortunately, in 1988,
the Japanese Association of Simulation and Gaming was established through
VII
VIII
Post-Conference Reflections
the efforts of the scientists concerned. I am very honored to have been elected
as first president of the association.
It was indeed a great honor and privilege for me to attend the Conference,
with distinguished delegates active in this scientific field, and it is gratifying to
witness the wide ranging discussions in these proceedings.
Jiro Kondo
Science Council of Japan
Preface
This volume records the proceedings of the 22nd Annual International Conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA),
15-19 July, 1991, Kyoto, Japan, sponsored by the Science Council of Japan
and the Japanese Association of Simulation and Gaming (JASAG). The conference theme was Global Modeling for Solving Global Problems.
The first 2 days of the conference were held in the magnificent Kyoto
International Conference Hall; the 3rd day was spent admiring the floats of the
famous Gion Festival in the exquisite city of Kyoto and the Daibutsu (or Great
Buddha) of the Todaiji Temple in Nara and visiting one of the Sharp factories.
During the last 2 days of the conference we were made most welcome in the
Faculty of International Relations of Ritsumeikan University. The day after
the conference, a number of delegates went to Hiroshima (the Peace Memorial
Hall, Museum and Park) and also to one of Japan's "Scenic Trio," the island
of Miyajima with its breathtaking views and the Itsukushima Shrine.
The conference was attended by some 400 delegates from over 30 different
countries. Over 100 sessions, both theoretical and practical, were given: keynote
speeches, round-table discussions, workshops, papers. This volume reflects most
of those sessions, in the form of either a full paper or a short abstract.
Simulation/gaming is fast gaining recognition as an extraordinary powerful
methodology in many areas. Few other methodologies appear to have as much
immediate relevance to global interdependence and to have as great a potential in
dealing with global problems and in making links between the local and the global.
Increasing numbers of people are becoming aware of the need to think and act in a
perspective of global interdependence, whether this be couched in political, environmental, or cultural terms. The world is becoming smaller as contact among peoples of the planet
grows; vital concerns, such as the environment or development, are becoming ever more
tightly woven into a transnational web. Events and issues, mundane or momentous, from
the local to the global,_ increasingly mesh with a wider planetary context. The need,
therefore, is greater than ever before, not only to encourage more effective communication
between, but above all to enable deeper understanding and tolerance of, the various
cultural groups around the world. Because of its dynamic, interactive, leamer-centered
nature, and because it is grounded in emerging, concrete realities, simulation/gaming is
admirably equipped to help us gain greater understanding of these complex international
IX
X
Preface
phenomena and thus to contribute to the enhancement of international understanding
[Crookall D (1990) Editorial: Future perfect? Simulation & Gaming: An International
Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 21(1)3-11].
The papers in this book are grouped into clusters, which-as usual when
dealing with simulation material-overlap in many ways. The eclectic nature of
simulation/gaming as well as its immediate application to real-world problems
mean that conventionally defined disciplinary boundaries are inadequate for
many publications on simulation/gaming. The clusters chosen here serve to
indicate a general emphasis or theme, rather than a speciality; some papers
could easily have appeared in more than one category. Each cluster is contained in a section, as follows:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Professional and Methodological Issues
Communication and Culture
Environmental and Developmental Issues
Economics and Business
Abstracts
The first section contains an important chapter (Meadows) on the need to
make simulation/gaming more professional. The other chapters look at various
aspects of simulation/gaming as a methodology, for example, design, evaluation, and modeling. The second section tackles a broad array of topics and
concerns related to communication and culture, which are both interdisciplinary
and interdependent. The first chapter (Lederman) provides a valuable overview and analysis of key concepts, while the other chapters deal with certain
facets of this double theme: intercultural communication, global awareness,
language games, international negotiation. Section 3 also deals with two
themes, the environment and development, which are closely related and
which tend to involve policy exercises. The first chapter (Greenblat) illustrates
the complexity and breadth of the issues involved, while the other chapters
focus on specific areas, such as agriculture, town planning, and ecology. (The
paper by Toth is good example of an account which, involving both culture and
the environment, could have easily been located in the previous section.)
The next section, 4, looks at some of the topics from the angle of business
and economics. A brief predictive overview is provided in an intriguing first
chapter (Teach), while the other chapters dwell on several topics, including
global modeling, post-communist economies, decision making, and stock
markets. Finally, Section 5 contains the abstracts of many of the remaining
conference sessions. Taken together, these papers provide a glimpse of the
state of simulation/gaming and its contribution to global interdependence.
Acknowledgments
In addition to sponsorship by the Science Council of Japan and the Japanese
Association of Simulation and Gaming, a great many people and organizations
Preface
XI
were involved in organizing and supporting the conference. They are all to be
thanked heartily; without each of their contributions, the success of the conference would have been diminished. I wish here to record many people's
deep gratitude to Kiyoshi Arai for his tremendous work, and to express my
own warm appreciation for his co-editing of these proceedings. The following
people and organizations all deserve our gratitude; those omitted in error are
asked to forgive the oversight.
Welcome and Keynote Speakers
First thanks go to Toshiki Kaifu, then Prime Minister of Japan, for his welcome message. Harold Guetzkow, Professor Emeritus, Northwestern University
and one of the world's most respected simulation scholars, is thanked for his
good wishes, read at the ceremony. Jiro Kondo, President of the Science
Council of Japan, has very kindly formulated some after-conference thoughts.
(These three texts appear before this Preface.)
Several people gave opening keynote presentations; they deserve special
thanks for the insight they provided and the outlook which they encouraged.
Their words (some of which appear in this volume) set the scene and tone for
the rest of the conference week.
JiTO Kondo, Science Council of Japan, Japan
Linda C. Lederman, Rutgers University, USA
Dennis L. Meadows, University of New Hampshire, USA
Anatol Rapoport, University of Toronto, Canada
Hiroharu Seki, Ritsumeikan University, Japan
Diana Shannon, Rutgers International Simulation and Gaming Center, USA
This volume is dedicated to Hiroharu Seki for his enthusiasm in applying the
methodology of simulation/gaming to global problems and for his initiative in
establishing the Japanese Association of Simulation and Gaming (JASAG).
Committees
Ten different committees were involved in one way or another with the conceptualization, planning, funding, and organization of the conference. Each
committee is to be warmly thanked for the work it accomplished to make the
conference the success that it was.
Honorary Committee
Teiichi Aramaki, Governor of Kyoto Prefecture
Koji Fushimi, Post-President of the Science Council of Japan
Masateru Ohnami, President of Ritsumeikan University
Yutaka Ohno, Director of the Institute of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan
University
Naoshi Sanada, Vice-president of Ritsumeikan University
Tomoyuki Tanabe, Mayor of Kyoto City
XII
Preface
Organizing Committee
Chair: Hiroharu Seki, Ritsumeikan University
Vice-chair: Akira Onishi, Soka University
General Secretary: Kanji Sato, Soka University
Members:
Hirotsugu Akaike, Institute of
Kiyoshi Arai, Kinki University
Takeshi Arai, Ritsumeikan University
Statistical Mathematics
Norio Baba, Osaka Kyoiku University
Ikuro Anzai, Ritsumeikan University
Ikuhiko Hata, Takushoku University
Yoichi Erikawa, KOEI Co.
Arata Ichikawa, Ryutsukeizai
Tadashi Hidano, University of the Air
University
Kazuo Inoue, Ritsumeikan University
Chiyoko Ishida, Niigata University
Tadashi Kawata, Sophia University
Tosiyasu Kunii, University of Tokyo
Sakutaro Kyozuka, Chuo University
Kinhide Mushakoji, Meiji Gakuin
Takehiko Matsuda, Sanno University
Sogo Okamura, Tokyo Denki
University
University
Yozo Shimizu, Japan Personal
Computer Software Association
Toshiyuki Sakai, Ryukoku University
Mitsuo Takahashi, Tsukuba University
Rei Shiratori, Tokai University
Fukuji Taguchi, Nagoya University
Paul Smoker, Antioch College
Tatsuo Urabe, Nagoya University
Sakio Takayanagi, Chuo University
Kenji Yamashita, Ritsumeikan
Kei Takeuchi, University of Tokyo
University
Masaya Yamaguchi, Ryukoku
University
Program Committee
Chair: Akira Onishi, Soka University
Vice-chair: Kiyoshi Arai, Kinki University
Members:
Norio Baba, Osaka Kyoiku University
Ikuhiko Hata, Takushoku University
Kazuo Inoue, Ritsumeikan University
Tomio Kinoshita, Kyoto University
Jan Klabbers, Erasmus University
Rotterdam
Kinhide Mushakoji, Meiji Gakuin
University
Hiroharu Seki, Ritsumeikan University
Paul Smoker, Antioch College
David Crookall, University of Alabama
Arata Ichikawa, Ryutsukeizai University
Toshio Iwasaki, Japan Economics
Foundation
Tosiyasu Kunii, University of Tokyo
Masatsugu Matsuo, Hiroshima University
Hideki Ohata, Waseda University
Yukio Sato, Hiroshima University
Yoshihisa Shinagawa, University of Tokyo
Sakio Takayanagi, Chuo University
Public Relations Committee
Chair: Ikuro Anzai, Ritsumeikan University
Vice-chair: Yoichi Erikawa, KOEI Co.
Local Arrangements Committee
Chair: Kazuo Inoue, Ritsumeikan University
Vice-chair: Ikuro Anzai, Ritsumeikan University
Finance Committee
Chair: Arata Ichikawa, Ryutsukeizai University
Vice-chair: Minoru Asahi, Ritsumeikan University
Preface
XIII
Planning Committee
Chair: Kanji Sato, Soka University
Vice-chair: Chiyoko Ishida, Niigata University
Funding Committee
Chair: Kinhide Mushakoji, Meiji Gakuin University
Vice-chair: Arata Ichikawa, Ryutsukeizai University
Conference Consultant
David Crookall, University of Alabama
Special thanks must be expressed to a number of individuals for their very
special help on various aspects of the conference. By last-minute, popular
request, several people-Cathy Greenblat and Richard Powers, for exampleconducted evening workshops. Ikuro Anzai, Kazuo Inoue, and Katsuari Kamei
made everyone most welcome (unfailing help, friendly smiles, buffet suppers,
going-away presents, and even real magic) in Ritsumeikan University. Kanji
Sato and Arata Ichikawa held the purse strings with great expertise, knowing
when to tighten and untie the knots-we are most' grateful to them. Two
wonderful secretaries provided unfailing service over many weeks and their
work is greatly appreciated: Yuriko Shimano and Chikako Nakahara. Atsushi
Takamizawa and Akira Watanabe helped out on all sorts of things with unflinching good humor. Yo shiro Tabuchi, JASAG secretary, was a tremendous
help in many ways. Joy Hilbun and Brenda Harris, with no uncertain skill,
much good humor, and great willingness, put in many hours helping to put
together this book. Thanks also go to Alexandra Bernstein (National Academy
of Sciences) and Barbara Jacobsen (Rutgers) for their editorial help and to the
employees of Springer-Verlag Tokyo. Last (but by no means least), we thank
Springer-Verlag (Tokyo). All these deserve gratitude from all those who
attended the conference and who contributed to this book.
Support
A large number of professional assocIatIOns and SOCIetIes very kindly lent
their name in support of the conference. This brought the conference to the
attention of people working in many different fields and did much to attract
delegates. The organizations to be thanked include:
Architectural Institute of Japan
Behaviormetric Society of Japan
Ecological Society of Japan
Information Processing Society of Japan
Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan
Institute of Statistical Research
Japan Association of Economics and
Econometrics
Japan Association for Philosophy of
Science
Association of Japanese Geographers
Center for Environmental Information
Science
Information Science and Technology
Association
Institute of Systems, Control, and
Information Engineers
Japan Association of International
Relations
Japan Association for Planning
XIV
Preface
Japan Association for Social and
Economic Systems Studies
Japan Election Studies Association
Japan Industrial Management Association
Japan Social Studies Research Association
Japan Society for Industrial and Applied
Mathematics
Japan Society for the Promotion of
Science
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
Japan Society of Educational Technology
Japanese Association of International Law
Japanese Group Dynamics Association
Japanese Society of Social Psychology
Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence
Law and Computers Association of Japan
Mathematical Society of Japan
Nippon Toshi Joho Gakkai
Peace Studies Association of Japan
Robotics Society of Japan
Society of Environmental Science, Japan
United Nations University
Administration
Japan Association for Urban Sociology
Japan Ergonomics Research Society
Japan Personal Computer Software
Association
Japan Society for Comparative
Civilizations
Japan Society for Science Education
Japan Society for the Study of Business
Administration
Japan Society of Educational Information
Japanese Association for Mathematical
Sociology
Japanese Psychological Association
Japanese Society of Soil Mechanics and
Foundation Engineering
Japanese Society for Science of Design
Linguistic Society of Japan
National Defense Society
Operations Research Society of Japan
Remote Sensing Society of Japan
Society of CAl in Japan
Society of Information Theory and its
Applications
Generous financial aid was received from several public bodies, and they are
warmly thanked. Their aid enabled the conference to achieve its objectives
with great success.
Kyoto Municipal Government
Kyoto Prefectural Government
The conference also benefitted immensely from a grant from the Commemorative Association for the Japan World Exhibition (1970).
In addition, donations were given by a large number of organizations, corporatiops, or companies. Each donor is thanked; they all contributed greatly to
the success of the conference.
ArgoTechnos21
Association of Tokyo Stock Exchange
Canon
CREO
Dempa Publications
DEC Japan
Fujitsu
Imagineer
Itoman
Japan Automobile Manufacturers
Association
Japan Foreign Trade Council
Japan Systems Engineering Corporation
Kanda Tsushinki
Kankaku Securities
KOEI
Matrix
Artdink
C.Itoh
Chori
Daiwa Securities
Dexter
ENIX
Hitachi
Intercom
Iwatani International Corporation
Japan Federation of Construction
Contractors
Justsystem Corporation
Kanematsu
Kawasho
Marubeni
Matsushita Electric Industrial Company
Milky Way
Preface
Microsoft
Mitsubishi
Mitsui
NEC
Nichimen
Nippon Telenet
Nissho Iwai
Obayashi
PFU
Regional Banks Association of Japan
Softbank
Softwing
Sumitomo
Federation of Electric Power Companies
Japan Iron & Steel Federation
Marine and Fire Insurance Association of
Japan
Tomen Corporation
Toshiba
Toyota Motor
xv
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Nagase
NHK Joho Network
Nippon Express
Nissei Sangyo
Nomura Research Institute
Okura
Professional Computer Automation
Shimizu
Software Japan International
Sogo Toshikaihatsu
Suzuyo
Japan Gas Association
Life Insurance Association of Japan
Nomura Securities
Tokyo Bankers Association
Toppan Printing
Toshoku
Toyota Tsusho
In addition, we thank several private organizations for their greatly appreciated services and cooperation.
Apple Computer Japan
Fujitsu
Hi-Vision Promotion Center
Japan Airlines
Konami
NEC
Artdink
Hitachi
Imagineer
KOEI
Maruzen
Sharp
About ISAGA
The main aims of the International Simulation and Gaming Association
(ISAGA) are to serve as a forum for the exchange of ideas and information on
all aspects of simulation/gaming and to further the development and use of
simulation/gaming around the world. Previous ISAGA conferences have taken
place in such locations as:
Aberdeen, Scotland
Caracas, Venezuela
Elsinor, Denmark
Geneva, Switzerland
Toulon, France
Venice, Italy
Alma Ata, Kazakhstan
Durham, NH, USA
Haifa, Israel
Sofia, Bulgaria
Utrecht, Netherlands
Weimar, Germany
The official periodical of ISAGA is Simulation & Gaming (see below). Proceedings of some of the previous conferences have been published; they are as
follows:
XVI
Preface
Bruin K, de Haan J, Teijken C, Veeman W (eds) (1979) How to build
a simulation/game. (Two volumes) Centrale Reproductiendienst der
Rijksuniversiteit, Gronigen
Crookall D, Greenblat CS, Coote A, Klabbers JHG, Watson DR (eds)
(1987) Simulation-gaming in the late 1980s. Pergamon Press, Oxford
Crookall D, Klabbers JHG, Coote A, Saunders D, Cecchini A, Delle Piane
A (eds) (1988) Simulation-gaming in education and training. Pergamon
Press, Oxford
Klabbers JHG, Scheper WJ, Takkenberg CAT, Crookall D (eds) (1989)
Simulation-gaming: On the improvement of competence in dealing with
complexity, uncertainty and value conflicts. Pergamon Press, Oxford
The most recent ISAGA Steering Committee is composed of the following
members:
Officers
President
Past President
President-Elect
General Secretary
Treasurer
Journal Editor
SAG SET Representative
ABSEL Representative
NASAGA Representative
Hiroharu Seki, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan
Dennis Meadows, University of New Hampshire, USA
Fred Percival, Napier Polytechnic, Scotland
Jan Hisok G. Klabbers, Erasmus University,
Rotterdam, Netherlands
Alan Cudworth, Nottingham Polytechnic, England
David Crookall, University of Alabama, USA
Alan Coote, p.i. Associates, Wales
Richard Teach, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
Steven Underwood, University of Michigan, USA
Regional Secretaries
Africa
Australia (AUSSAGA)
Central/Eastern Europe
Japan (JASAG)
Italy (SIGIS)
Latin America
Western Europe
USA
Philippines (PHILSAG)
Kunle Akinyemi, University of Ilorin, Nigeria
Elizabeth Christopher, Charles Sturt University,
Australia
Victor I. Rybalski, Kiew Institute of Technology,
Ukraine
Hiroharu Seki, Ritsumeikan University, Japan
Arnaldo Cecchini, Venice University, Italy
Leopoldo Schapira, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba,
Argentina
Jan H. G. Klabbers, Erasmus University, Rotterdam,
Netherlands
Steven Underwood, University of Michigan, USA
Florosita Q. Pimental, Quezon City, Philippines
Members at Large
Kiyoshi Arai, Kinki University in Kyushu, Japan
Douglas W. Coleman, University of Toledo, USA
Richard D. Duke, University of Michigan, USA
Adriana Frisenna, Venice University, Italy
Hans Gernert, Humbold University, Berlin, Germany
Cathy Stein Greenblat, Rutgers University, USA
Dmitri Kavtaradze, Moscow State University, Russia
Ludmilla Kraova, Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Preface
XVII
Hubert Law-Jones, Technion, Israel
Linda Langerman, Rutgers University, USA
Laurent Mermet, Paris, France
Elzbieta Naumienko, Warsaw, Poland
Krzysztof Nowak, Katowice, Poland
E. Radaceanu, Institutal Roman de Management, Bucarest, Romania
R. Siebecke, Friedrich-Schiller Universitat, Jena, Germany
Wladyslaw R. Switalski, Warsaw University, Poland
Ivo Wenzler, Multilogue International, Ann Arbor, USA
To obtain information on ISAGA and its conferences, either write to JHG
Klabbers, Secretary General, ISAGA, Gostervelden 59-6681, WR Bemmel,
Netherlands, or consult a recent issue of the journal.
Simulation & Gaming
Simulation and Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design and
Research is the world's foremost journal devoted to academic and applied
issues in the fields of simulation, computerized simulation, gaming, modeling,
play, role-play, and active, experiential learning, and related methodologies in
education, training, and research. The broad scope and interdisciplinary nature
of Simulation & Gaming is demonstrated by the variety of its readers and
contributors, such as sociologists, political scientists, economists, psychologists,
and educators, as well as experts in environmental issues, international studies,
management and business, policy and planning, decision making and conflict
resolution, cognition, learning theory, communication, language learning,
media, educational technologies, and computing. The journal carries scholarly
research articles, reports, read-to-use simulation/games, reviews of books and
simulation/games, news of ISAGA activities, and announcements about events
and resources.
Before submitting a manuscript, authors should write (enclosing a selfaddressed, self-adhesive label and, in the USA, $2 in stamps) for a copy of the
Guide for Authors to David Crookall, Editor, Simulation & Gaming, English/
Morgan, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA, or c/o Sage
Publications, 2455 Teller Road, Newbury Park, CA 91320, USA or 6 Bonhill
Street, London EC2A 4PU, UK. To subscribe, contact Sage Publications at
one of the above addresses.
Finally ...
Each ISAGA conference is a wonderful event, and the conference in Kyoto
was a truly enriching experience-one which all delegates will cherish for years
to come. Thank you, Kiyoshi, for pulling it all together.
David Crookall
Tuscaloosa and Washington, USA
Contents
Welcome Message. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Toshiki Kaifu
V
Welcome Message. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Harold Guetzkow
V
Post-Conference Reflections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Jira Kondo
VII
Preface........................................................
David Crookall
IX
List of Contributors
XXV
Section 1 Professional and Methodological Issues
Preparing the Gaming Profession to Deal with Problems of the
Twenty-first Century. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dennis L. Meadows
3
Applying Principles of Graphic Design to Game Design ....... . . . . . . .
Diana E. Shannon
17
A Global Model of Simulation and Game Evaluation ................
Danny Laveault, Michel St-Germain, and Pierre Corbeil
32
Information Technology and Simulation Games . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gee Kin Yeo
43
Towards a Concept of Meta-Game: Some Applied Results. . . . . . . . . . . .
Yusaku Shibata, Hirofumi Kurihara, and Shinzo Takatsu
49
Software to Communicate Global Models ..........................
Kenneth L. Simons and Peter J. Poole
57
Modeling Organizations with Visual Agents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Kenneth A. Griggs
66
XIX
xx
Contents
Future Perspectives for Global Modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hiroharu Seki
74
Behavioral/Social System Simulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Charles M. Plummer and David W. Hollar
79
Section 2
Communication and Culture
Communication and Understanding Around the World... .... .... ....
Linda Costigan Lederman
89
Synchrony in Intercultural Communication .........................
Young Yun Kim
99
Global Network Simulation: An Environment for Global Awareness. . .
David Crookall and Patty Landis
106
Global University for Global Peace Gaming ........................
Takeshi Utsumi and Arturo Garzon
112
Establishing Cross-Cultural Connections in the Classroom .. . . . . . . . . . .
Arlen Gargagliano
121
Collaborative Creation of Adventure Games in the ESL One-Computer
Classroom .....................................................
Douglas W. Coleman
125
Chinese Word Games for School Children. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gee Kin Yeo
131
Simulation/Gaming for Language Learning in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zhipu Qui and Joanne Velan Dunn
135
Training International Commercial Negotiators Through Simulation. . . .
Jose Pavis
143
Global Modelling: A Game-Generating Game ......................
Elizabeth M. Christopher
159
Simulation Structure and Attitude Change in a High Technology
Culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T.R. Schumacher
Section 3
165
Environmental and Developmental Issues
Introducing Gaming-Simulations into the Plannit;lg Process in a
Developing Country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Cathy S. Greenblat
The NEW COMMONS GAME. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Richard B. Powers
175
184
Contents
XXI
Asian Agriculture: A Tragedy of the Commons in the Making? . . . . . . . .
Khalid Saeed
192
Three Simulation/Games and Their Impact on Participants. . . . . . . . . . . .
Ludmilla l. Kryukova
202
Global Change and the Cross-Cultural Transfer of Policy Games. . . . . . .
Ferenc L. Toth
208
Policy Exercises on Global Environmental Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Laurent Mermet
216
An Open Simulation-Game with a TV Studio as a Tool for
Long-Term Policy Formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Kiyoshi Arai
223
A Computer-Supported Meeting Environment for Policy Exercises. . . . .
Rudiger B. Wysk
230
Municipal Planning Room for Policy Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Yasufumi Igarashi, Toshiyuki Kaneda, and Yoshinobu Kumata
238
Space Influences on Earth's Ecological and Economic Systems
Norihisa Kaneda, Yoshio Ishikawa, Tatsuo Motohashi,
Yoshiki Yamagiwa, and Kyoichi Kuriki
246
Section 4 Economics and Business
Global Changes in Business and Economics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Richard D. Teach
259
An Econometric Simulation Model: The Case of FUGIIMS . . . . . . . . . . .
Masua Aiso, Akira Onishi, Fumiko Kimura, Masayasu Atsumi,
Toshiaki Imoto, and Yuji Tokiwa
263
Managing Post-Communist Economy: A Gaming/Simulation Study
Miroslaw Dlugosz and Elzbieta Naumienko
267
Strategic Decision Making in Business Gaming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Arata Ichikawa, Minoru Mukuda, and Hideo Inaba
279
Management Games in the International Business Classroom .........
Ronald D. Klein
287
Business and Engineering Gaming in the Ukraine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Victor l. Rybalski
294
Stock Market Simulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Iva Wenzler and Marijo Polic
300
Using Spreadsheets for Complex Business Simulations
Fernando E. Arellano and Richard D. Johnson
307
XXII
Contents
A Holistic Approach to Using a Marketing Strategy Simulation. . . . . . . .
Olivia de Bergerac
312
Simulation Gaming and the Improvement of Quality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
James M. Freeman
318
Section 5 Assembled Abstracts
Building More Meaning into the Organizational Modeling Process .... .
Margaret M. Beranek and Connie E. Wells
327
Organizational Modeling: Rationales, Issues, and Methods ...........
Minder Chen and Kunihiko Higa
327
Using a Simulation Tool for Defining Global Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dorien J. de Tombe
328
A Proposal for the Development of an International Business
Simulation Laboratory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Joanne Velan Dunn
328
Law, Contract, and Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Kaoru Endo
329
Design of a Computer Game for Managing an Apparel Retail Store . . . .
Maiko Fukuda, Katsuaki Kuroda, and Masanobu Miki
329
A Micro World for Kanji Learning............... .................
Toshihiro Hayashi and Yoneo Yano
330
Game Paradigm CAl . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Takayuki lida and Akira Kikuyama
330
Residents' Attitude Shifts in an Environmental Dispute: A Case Study
on a Golf Course Location Dispute . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Yoshiki Kago and Sachihiko Harashina
330
Future Status of Airborne Infectious Diseases: Evolution and
Eradication ....................................................
Masayuki Kakehashi and Fumitaka Yoshinaga
331
Development of a Game-Wise CAl and the Prerequisites. . . . . . . . . . . . .
lkuo Kitagaki
Heat Trap: Methodological Considerations for a Policy Exercise on
Greenhouse Gas Emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Jan H.G. Klabbers
History Education and the Use of Simulation/Games. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
K. Yoshihiro Kuriyama
331
332
332
Contents
XXIII
Modeling and Managing a Top Management Game by an Expert System
Tool...........................................................
Toshiro Kurozawa
333
Differences that Make a Difference: Intercultural Communication,
Simulation, and the Debriefing Process. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Linda Costigan Lederman
333
Capturing Organizational Knowledge Through Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Yihwa Irene Liou and Kunihiko Higa
334
Modeling and Diagnosing a Misconception by Hypothesis-Based
Reasoning for ITS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Noboru Matsuda and Toshio Okamoto
334
On Problem Solving and Decision Making of MUSAS, a Musical
Arrangement System .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tatsuya Mikami and Kazuo Inoue
335
Simulation of Polarization from Each Group Decision. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Mieko Nakamura
335
Gaming/Simulation for Research into Road Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Toshinori Nemoto
336
A Simulation Based on a Self-Referential Model of Organizational
Intelligence ....................................................
Toshizumi Ohta
336
Business Games in Managerial Training/Development and the
Transition to a Free Market Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Eduard Riidiiceanu
337
A Simplified Simulation Model for Country Risk Evaluation ..........
Kanji Sato
337
Analysis and Simulation of Credential Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hiroyuki Shiraishi
338
Strategy Formation in Universities: Changing Strategic Decision
Processes of Loosely Coupled Systems Through Information
Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Shigehisa Tsuchiya
Concept Formation Model of the Shape of Two-Dimensional
Multimodal Functions and Its Application to Optimization. . . . . . . . . . . .
Mitsuru Tsukamoto, Katsuari Kamei, and Kazuo Inoue
338
339
A Classroom Simulator for Computer Language Education ...........
K. Tsushima, H. Kaga, and K. Fujii
339
One Step Beyond: Problems with Traditional Game Evaluation
Bart van Linder
340
XXIV
Contents
Automating Model Formulation for Decision Support. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ajay S. Vinze and Arun Sen
A Simulation Approach to Process Modeling in Information Systems
Analysis and Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Rosemary H. Wild and Kenneth A. Griggs
340
341
List of Contributors
Aiso, M. 263
Arai, K. 223
Arellano, F ..E. 307
Atsumi, M. 263
Beranek, M.M. 327
Bergerac, O. de 312
Chen, M. 327
Christopher, E.M. 159
Coleman, D.W. 125
Corbeil, P. 32
Crookall, D. IX, 106
Dlugosz, M. 267
Dunn, J.V. 135,328
Endo, K. 329
Freeman, J.M. 318
Fujii, K. 339
Fukuda, M. 329
Gargagliano, A. 121
Garzon, A. 112
Greenblat, C.S. 175
Griggs, K.A. 66,341
Harashina, S. 330
Hayashi, T. 330
Higa, K. 327,334
Hollar, D.W. 79
Ichikawa, A. 279
Igarashi, Y. 238
Iida, T. 330
Imoto, T. 263
Inaba, H. 279
Inoue, K. 335,339
Ishikawa, Y. 246
Johnson, R.D. 307
Kaga, H. 339
Kago, Y. 330
Kakehashi, M. 331
Kamei, K. 339
Kaneda, N. 246
Kaneda, T. 238
Kikuyama, A. 330
Kim, Y.Y. 99
Kimura, F. 263
Kitagaki, I. 331
Klabbers, J.H.G. 332
Klein, R.D. 287
Kryukova, L.1. 202
Kumata, Y. 238
Kurihara, H. 49
Kuriki, K. 246
Kuriyama, K. Y. 332
Kuroda, K. 329
Kurozawa, T. 333
Landis, P. 106
Laveault, D. 32
Lederman, L.C. 89,333
Linder, B. van 340
Liou, Y.1. 334
Matsuda, N. 334
Meadows, D.L. 3
Mermet, L. 216
Mikami, T. 335
Miki, M. 329
Motohashi, T. 246
Mukuda, M. 279
Nakamura, M. 335
Naumienko, E. 267
Nemoto, T. 336
Ohta, T. 336
Okamoto, T. 334
Onishi, A. 263
Pavis, J. 143
Plummer, C.M. 79
Polic, M. 300
Poole, P.J. 57
Powers, R.B. 184
Qui, Z. 135
Riidiiceanu, E. 337
Rybalski, V.1. 294
Saeed, K. 192
Sato, K. 337
Schumacher, T.R. 165
Seki, H. 74
Sen, A. 340
Shannon, D.E. 17
Shibata, Y. 49
Shiraishi, H. 338
Simons, K.L. 57
St-Germain, M. 32
Takatsu, S. 49
Teach, R.D. 259
Tokiwa, Y. 263
Tombe, D.J. de 328
Toth, F.L. 208
Tsuchiya, S. 338
Tsukamoto, M. 339
Tsushima, K. 339
xxv
XXVI
List of Contributors
Utsumi, T. 112
Vinze, A.S. 340
Wells, C.E. 327
Wenzler, 1. 300
Wild, R.H. 341
Wysk, R.B. 230
Yamagiwa, Y. 246
Yano, Y. 330
Yeo, G.K. 43,131
Yoshinaga, F. 331
Section 1
Professional and
Methodological Issues
Preparing the Gaming Profession to Deal
with Problems of the Twenty-first Century
Dennis L. Meadows l
Abstract. Solving global problems will require great foresight, concerted action across
national boundaries, and profound changes in technology, culture, and economics. This
conclusion is fully recognized by New Earth 21, a recent Japanese initiative to deal with
climate change. I propose here a partnership between the global gaming community and
the scientific and political leaders who have begun to plan the New Earth 21 initiative.
Collaboration would pay dividends for both sides. Those concerned with global problems will gain access to a set of powerful tools for social research, communication, and
training. Garners would gain political and financial support for their work. They would
also be confronted with the need to make long overdue changes in the conduct of their
profession: standardizing and extending professional training programs, raising the
quality of documentation, and developing better means for accessing the growing body
of important educational games.
Key words. climate change; gaming profession; global models; global problems; Limits
to Growth; New Earth 21; simulation profession
For two days this past June I participated in a meeting organized by the
Japanese to focus on a fundamental problem of the twenty-first century. About
one hundred of Japan's most senior government, corporate, and scientific
leaders came to Atlanta, Georgia in the United States to meet with a similar
number of their American counterparts. The purpose of the seminar was to
find partners who could help undertake a monumental new project, "New
Earth 21," a 100-year effort to counteract threats of global climate change
[Fukukawa (1991) The challenge of Japan and the United States: Recovery of
the global environment (unpublished). Available from The Global Industrial
and Social Progress Research Institute, 3-8-21 Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo,
105 Japan].
My purpose today is to summarize why and how the international community of gamers should offer to become a partner in the New Earth 21
initiative. I have four reasons for my proposal:
1 Institute for Policy and Social Science Research, Hood House, University of New
Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, US; phones 603/862-2186 (w) 603/868-1942 (h);
facsimile 603/862-1488; telex 493 0372; e-mail d_meadows@unhh.unh.edu
3
4
Meadows
1. This Japanese initiative is unique in the breadth of its vision and in the level
of national support. It is the only plan I have seen that could possibly avert
what I believe will otherwise be the catastrophic consequences of global
warming. It deserves support by all the globe's citizens.
2. I know absolutely that efforts to avoid climate change cannot succeed
without the forms of social innovation and learning that emerge from
gaming and simulation experiments.
3. Creating tools useful to the New Earth 21 program will enable our
profession to build important foundations for dealing with other global
problems as well.
4. Efforts to become an effective partner in the New Earth 21 program will
confront our discipline clearly with the need to make some long overdue
improvements in its own administration and practice.
Outline of My Remarks
My comments today will elaborate on each of those four points. First, I will
define the difference between global problems and other challenges with which
society has had more experience and more success. I will summarize several
relevant conclusions that have emerged from my own 20 years' professional
experience using global models in games and simulations. Included in my
summary will be some new results that are reported publicly here for the first
time. I will briefly mention the six main goals of the New Earth 21 initiative
and show how achieving them will require new advances from the gaming and
simulation community. Finally, I will point to several changes our profession
should bring to its own practice, if it is to be an effective and a credible partner
in humanity's efforts to cope with global problems.
The goals I have outlined for this speech constitute an ambitious agenda.
Obviously I cannot deal conclusively with any of these topics. But my purpose
is not to layout a final plan. I want to raise your interest in this proposal. I
want to give you some basic information related to it. I want to suggest a list of
topics that we might fruitfully discuss in more informal settings during and
after this conference. Throughout this discussion, I will use the terms "we"
and "our" specifically to designate the global community of those who use
educational games and simulations in their profession.
Universal Versus Global Problems
As we begin to confront issues like climate change, it is crucial to recognize the
fundamental differences between universal and global problems. For dealing
with the first, society can draw on many decades of experience, numerous
institutions, and countless technologies. However, mankind is in a. very preliminary stage of preparing to cope with the second.
Preparing the Gaming Profession
5
Universal problems are those which affect the peoples of many countries,
but they can and must be dealt with internally to a region or a nation. Soil
erosion, ground water pollution, deforestation, municipal waste accumulation,
and hazardous waste spills in the soil are examples. While international collaboration can be helpful, for example through the transfer of appropriate
technologies, the solution to these problems lies intrinsically with those who
live and produce within the region.
Unilateral initiatives can be effective with universal problems. For example,
West Germany was able to reduce contamination of the air in its own cities
even while this problem grew to catastrophic proportions in East Germany.
Global problems are fundamentally different. While they also affect peoples
of many countries, global issues can be dealt with only through concerted
action across regional, national, and even continental boundaries. Global
problems generally do not respond quickly. They typically require actions that
must be sustained in a consistent fashion for many decades in order to achieve
fundamental solutions. They generally do not have purely technical solutions.
Initiative cannot be unilateral. For example, Japan cannot avoid the consequences of climate change by reducing its own CO 2 emissions, so long as
other major nations ignore the problem of global warming.
Global problems require unprecedented foresight. In some ways, dealing
with global problems is like steering a mighty ship to avoid icebergs in the fog.
Because of the inertia in a large ship, it can take a great distance and substantial time to change its course. As a consequence, when the ship is passing
through a fog, its navigators use radar to identify obstacles early enough so that
they still have time to pick a safer course. Global modelling first began to
develop in the early 1970s as a form of radar for use with social systems. Those
early models let policy makers begin to peer several decades ahead in the
evolution of their social and economic systems to anticipate the nature and the
magnitude of emerging global problems.
I directed one of the earliest global modelling efforts, and the conclusions
that emerged from our research are still relevant today. Let us look at some of
those conclusions.
Perspectives on Global Problems from
The Limits to Growth
In the period 1970-1972, I carried out with colleagues at MIT a program of
data research, mathematical modelling, and simulation to understand the longterm causes and consequences of growth in the globe's population and of
exponential expansion in the physical aspects of the world's economic output.
Our analyses lead to construction of WORLD3, a computer simulation model,
and our results were reported in four texts including The Limits to Growth
(Meadows et al. 1972, 1973, 1974, 1977). The basic conclusion was simply
stated:
6
Meadows
If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization,
pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged,
the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the
next 100 years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and
uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.
With this conclusion came two insights. First, changes in technology alone
will not solve global problems. Technological advance generally serves only to
shift the burden of the problem from one sector to another. For example,
increasing fertilizer use will increase food production and thereby decrease
hunger, but it also raises pollution of ground and surface waters while
hastening the depletion of fossil fuels. New technologies can be helpful, but
changes in social values and institutions are required as well. For example,
the ultimate solution to hunger lies in stabilizing the population-a goal that
implies many changes including reductions in desired family size and improvements in the status of women.
The second insight was to recognize the difference between problem and
symptom. The underlying cause of most global problems is the continuation of
exponential growth in population, resource use, and energy consumption on a
finite planet. Hunger, ozone depletion, and climate change are symptoms of
that problem. You will never get rid of all the symptoms as long as the real
problem is not addressed. For example, attempting to deal with climate change
while ignoring population growth and material economic expansion is like
prescribing aspirin for a chronic headache while ignoring the growing brain
tumor that is causing it.
In April 1991, we began a comprehensive reanalysis of the data, references,
and computer simulation runs used in our original analysis. The results will
lead to the publication of a new book in the spring of 1992, Beyond the Limits
(Meadows et al. 1992).
This recent work already makes one conclusion absolutely clear. The
principal facts that led to our original results have not been changed during
the past 20 years. The growth trends in world population, industrialization,
pollution, food production, and resource depletion still continue essentially
unchanged. Figures 1 and 2 show two of the graphs that were published
originally in The Limits to Growth. Here they have been extended with data
for the past 20 years. The two figures are characteristic of most data plots
you could draw to show behavior of the globe's demographic and economic
parameters over the past 2 decades. Most physical indices of mankind's
activities have nearly doubled since our first study, and population has grown
even faster than we projected-rising from 3.7 in 1970 to 5.3 billion in 1990
(UNEP 1991).
WORLD3 was not designed for the task of making precise predictions, but
anyone who cared to interpolate on our graphs could see that our standard
reference projection produced turning points in population and economy
around the year 2030. I still believe that our standard run is a useful forecast. Since The Limits to Growth was published in 1972, humanity has come
Preparing the Gaming Profession
7
billions of people
6
5
4
3
2
o
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Source : DJ Bogue
UN, World Population Prospects: estimates
& projections as assessed in 1984.
Fig. 1. World population projections. From Meadows et al. 1992 with permission
approximately one-third of the way towards the "Global Turning Point" in
its physical expansion.
Although global population, energy use, and resource usage are now above
the planet'S long-term carrying capacity, our new simulations still show that
there is time to change course and move along an orderly path towards a
sustainable and equitable global society which can satisfy the basic needs of all
its citizens. But this can be done only with major new initiatives, enacted
urgently, that confront realistically the nature of our problems, our resources,
and our options.
Social Versus Technical Solutions
Up to now most international initiatives dealing with a global problem have
been fundamentally unrealistic; they have treated some individual symptom of
the limits to growth as if it were an independent problem. They have assumed
that this problem could be addressed and solved in isolation from the underlying growth trends. They have assumed that technological solutions would be
possible and that social change was neither possible nor necessary. New Earth
21 does not make those mistakes.
8
Meadows
parts per million by volume
390
380
/
370
360
350
",.'~
340
330
~/
1958·1970dala
'" /
model prediclion
based on 1958·1970dala ",..
310
~; ~
1860
F
Y
320
"'
1880
1900
1920
~
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: Lester Machla.
UNEP. Environment Data Report. 1989·90.
Fig. 2. Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. From Meadows et al. 1992
with permission
There is explicit recognition in the Japanese proposal that there must also
be great advances in social innovation-changes in personal lifestyles, international ethics, and even in the paradigms governing present policies of
industrialization and energy use.
The New Earth 21 project will produce fundamental solutions, but only if
these other aspects of the problem can receive the same attention that is given
to the technical and economic issues. It is here that I see that major opportunities and challenges for the simulation/gaming profession-or gaming
profession for short. We can provide tools to assist in reaching each of the
project's six objectives. The precise nature of our work would have to be
designed through discussions with other disciplines engaged in the New Earth
21 project. But I can suggest possible goals here and cite examples of simulations and games that are already available. I know that each of you could add
many suggestions to the short list I will provide. I hope you will take the time
to do so.
Tools Available from Gaming
The recommendations presented in Atlanta at the meeting on the New Earth
21 project included six sweeping changes:
Preparing the Gaming Profession
9
1. Build international systems that will serve nations' short-term and long-term
interests. This requires games which show the long~term
dynamics of change
in demography, economy, and environment. STRATEGEM is such a game.
I designed it originally for the US Agency for International Development to
serve as a training tool for development specialists in Central America. The
game represents the major forces governing development of a region over
50 years. Volunteers have disseminated the game widely; it has been
translated into at least eight languages. Over 2,000 sets have been manufactured for use in about 30 countries.
2. Improve the science for predicting causes and consequences of environmental deterioration. During the 1980s the International Geophysical and
Biosphere Program (IGBP) supported extensive efforts to develop models
of the natural systems involved in climate change. But their simulations take
demography and economy as exogenous factors. We could reintegrate those
essential causes of climate change back into the modelling framework
through games that represent international negotiation processes.
3. Accelerate environmental assistance and technology transfer to the poorer
nations. Technology transfer programs have been notoriously ineffective.
Games like Duke's ADVANTIG could be used to clarify the institutional
and psychological factors that determine one country's use of tools developed by another nation.
4. Develop the required new technologies and create new businesses to support
and disseminate them. New devices will have little effect if there are not
trained managers to sell and service the technologies as well as to train
clients in their effective use. Of course business schools around the world
use games for training managers. There is an enormous inventory of simulations and games that could be useful for training those who will build the
new industries that "sell" protection against climate change. For example,
Elgood (1988) presents a wonderfully useful catalogue of several hundred
commercially available business games that are used in training business
managers.
5. Establish international codes of environmental conduct for corporations.
Ethics are not conveyed by lectures. They come out of perceptions, habits,
and norms that survive the test of practical utility within a community. We
need to help corporate officials see operationally what norms prevail at
present, and get them to understand that a different code of conduct with
more emphasis on sustaining the environment's resources will serve their
underlying interests much better. Games like Shirts' WHERE DO YOU
DRAW THE LINE? can be useful in understanding what ethics currently
prevail. I worked with colleagues in Budapest to adapt Shirts' exercise for
use with Hungarian industry; the resulting game has given managers surprising insights about their collective ethic related to disposal of industrial
wastes.
6. Educate the public to increase their wisdom and spirit of cooperation related
to these problems. Role-playing simulations are an effective way for individuals to experiment with alternative modes of behavior and to see the
10
Meadows
long-term problems that can be caused by short-sighted policies. New
games-based curricula, which teach creative modes of cooperation and
negotiation, are especially important for children in school; they will inherit
the problems that have accumulated through our actions.
To this list we could add other tools. Reaching consensus on solutions to
global problems will place dramatic new demands on leaders' capacities to
negotiate and compromise. This is already a major focus of gaming activity
(Christopher and Smith 1987).
Each summer in Salzburg, Austria, MIT Professor Lawrence Susskind (see
Dolin and Susskind 1992) of the Harvard/MIT Negotiation Project conducts a
2-week training program on environmental negotiation. The basic tools for his
training program are case studies and games. The enormous demand by countries
for participation in this program shows the effectiveness of games for this purpose.
The Ministry of the Enyironment in the Netherlands has just committed
major funding to a new project that will develop games useful for training
Ministry staff involved in climate change negotiations. That effort could be
enlarged and enriched through more widespread participation by the gaming
community.
Games such as BAFA BAFA have been created to inform individuals about
the nature of, and the implications resulting from, differences in cultural
norms. It would be useful to extend this type of simulation to incorporate
factors that produce differing national responses to the threat of climate
change.
Our work can theoretically contribute these and many other important new
tools for social research, negotiation, education, and social system design. But
our capacity for this work is limited by several practical considerations. If our
discipline is to be an equal partner with many others in projects like New
World 21, we need to improve our practice until it meets the standards
observed by most of the other professions.
New Standards for the Profession
For almost a decade I served as Associate Editor for four of the principal
English language journals that report on work involving simulations and games
related to social systems (System Dynamics Review; The Journal of the System
Dynamics Society; Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal of Theory,
Design, and Research; Technological Forecasting and Social Change). From
that vantage point, I have seen three areas in which our discipline falls short of
the standards observed by many of our peers.
The first area involves our educational programs. There are few formal
training programs in game design and use. There is no generally accepted
list of requirements for those who wish to work in our field. Thus, there is
no process of accreditation that outsiders can use to gauge the professional
qualifications of those involved in gaming.
Preparing the Gaming Profession
11
It would be impossible and undesirable to expect that all formal training
programs in gaming would have an identical curriculum. But it would be very
helpful to compile a list of the various topics which provide expertise in
gaming, and then collect course curricula related to each topic. This would
facilitate the design of game-related curricula and courses, and permit new
training programs to be initiated with less work and with more deliberation.
Making widely available the curricular materials from the Certificate Program
in Gaming administered by Professor Richard Duke at the University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan would give us a foundation for starting this
effort.
Gaming draws on many different areas of expertise-business management,
organizational psychology, economics, environmental sciences, to name just a
few. Nonetheless, there must be some core curriculum that we would expect
most professionals to master. We should identify the members of this list and
decide how they can best be incorporated in the formal education of those who
join our field.
Until there is some basis for evaluating different academic programs' and
certifying professionals at different levels of competence, the academic community is not likely to accord us nearly as much respect as we think we
deserve. More importantly, there will be few new training programs created in
our area, and our capacity to playa major role in any program of social change
will be severely limited by personnel constraints.
The second area where we need work is in documentation standards. The
past work in global models nicely illustrates the problem. During the 1970s,
approximately 20 major global modelling projects were carried out in at least a
dozen nations. Published papers result from all of these efforts, and many of
them produced major books (Meadows et al. 1982).
Unfortunately, the standards of documentation observed by the field during
this frenzy of work was so poor that the reader of these publications has almost
no possibility to reproduce the published computer simulations or to test the
sensitivity of published results to changes in assumptions. Of the 20 models
that were published, only one gave readers all the information necessary for
them to reproduce all published results independently. Indeed, I believe that
scientists in at least 15 of the projects could no longer reproduce the results
that they themselves published only a decade ago. If the professional literature
in the physical science disciplines were so lax, progress within the discipline
would be slow and there would justifiably be little respect for practitioners in
the field.
I think that we can and must do better. We could easily start by adopting, as
a norm, the requirement that any reader of a published report should have
access to all information required independently to conduct the game or
simulate the model referenced in the text. If the information necessary to
achieve this cannot be published as part of the article, it could be provided to
the central archives of the journal with permission for it to be reproduced and
distributed on request.
12
Meadows
Even when we have achieved some uniformity in documentation standards,
we will need to work towards making our products more permanently available. I know that many of you in this audience have experienced the frustration
of learning that some "wonderful" game you have heard about is not available
in a form that would let you take it over for use in your own programs.
For every 100 simulations and games that are created by someone for use in
their own teaching or to provide the basis for a professional publication,
probably less than five are documented sufficiently that others can actually use
them. And most of those five rapidly go out of print.
Many times I have turned to that wonderful catalog of games and simulations compiled by Horn and Cleaves (1980) to find exercises that would be
useful to me. Invariably I find several entries of potential value, but almost
never have I managed to get full documentation of the kit. The author has
moved and left no forwarding address, the computer software is now obsolete
and cannot be operated on current machines, or the documentation is no
longer reproduced. For these and many other reasons, our best work is quickly
lost to the general community. If our work is to produce a steadily accumulating library of tools for dealing with global problems, we will need to invest
more effort in archiving our products. It would cost comparatively little to
achieve this.
A third deficiency of our field is the low interest and the sparse knowledge
related to the real impact of the games and simulations we develop. All of us
have repeated the Chinese proverb "When I hear I forget, when I see I
remember, when I do I understand." I use the phrase myself, and I am sure it
is true. But how much objective evidence do we have for that statement? I
recently went through several dozen back issues of Simulation & Games: An
International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research in search of theoretical
or empirical articles on the effectiveness of games. I found practically
nothing-certainly not a single article that could be used to select which of
several alternative games might be most effective in a given situation; nothing
also that differentiated between short-term and long-term learning effects.
Here again the problem remains unsolved, not because it is inherently
difficult, but because no one in the profession has given it much attention. I
suggest that we might turn to the example of the National Diffusion Network
(NDN) which has been operated by the US Department of Education for the
past 15 years (Ralph and Dwyer 1988). NDN has constituted a Program
Effectiveness Panel, a group of 25 experts who use rigorous statistics and sound
didactic theory to test and certify teaching materials that have proven effectiveness. Their approach could be modified for our use.
How Can this Be Done?
Three facts are relevant, as we think how a program of this sort could be
implemented. First, there is an enormous depth and diversity of competence in
the international gaming community. Second, there is no coordination and
Preparing the Gaming Profession
13
not even much communication among gaming professionals within different
branches and in different countries. Third, there has not been any attempt to
secure funding that would support the profession as a whole.
The last time I checked, I identified eight professional societies created
around the interests of professionals involved in gaming: ISAGA, NASAGA,
ABSEL, SAGSET, MORS, JASAG, AEE,1 and an association of East
European gamers. I am sure this list is incomplete, and I know that the
majority of those with expertise in this field do not affiliate with any society.
The United States government alone spends many tens of millions of dollars
annually on game-related research and training programs. Expenditures by
industry are not tabulated, but they certainly exceed those by the federal
government. This is an enormous resource.
I have asked myself why there is no fairly coherent international community
for the gaming discipline as there is for many of the other disciplines. For
example, Japanese physicists regularly meet their colleagues from other
countries at international meetings. They all read the same journals, and the
leaders of the field are well known to each other and in frequent contact with
one another. The difference is that basic science is an end in itself; gaming is a
means to an end-actually many different ends. So the gaming community has
been pulled into a large number of groups, each pursuing radically different
goals, working with different clients, and gauging their success according to
different criteria-high school education, corporate training, social science
research, and military strategy.
Until now gaming has attracted little program support. There are no endowed chairs for gamers in universities; no foundation has created a new
institute for the advancement of our field. But that is easy to explain. There is
no critical mass of professionals seeking support in a common area of concern,
the senior professionals do not constitute a coherent community of interest,
and there is no way for an outsider to judge who is doing the best work.
I know that if gaming is going to make a major contribution to the way we
solve global problems we will need more funding. That will require of us more
coordination. Let me cite an example from my own work to show how this
might be done without encroaching on individual and group perogatives.
lISAGA: International Simulation and Gaming Association, Jan Klabbers, General
Secretary, Oostervelden 59, 6681 WR Bemmel, Netherlands
NASAGA: North American Simulation and Gaming Association, John del Regato,
President, Pentathlon Institute, P.O. Box 20590, Indianapolis, IN 46220 US
ABSEL: Association for Business Simulations and Experiential Learning, Robert
Wells, Center for Business Simulation, LB 8127, Georgia Southern College,
Statesboro, GA 30460-8127 US
SAGSET: The Society for the Advancement of Games and Simulation in Education
and Training, Secretariat, Center for Extension Studies, University of Technology,
Loughborough, Leicestershire, LEll 3TU UK
MORS: Military Operations Research Society
JASAG: Japan Association for Simulation and Gaming
AEE: The Association for Experiential Education, CU-Box 249, Boulder, CO 80309
US
14
Meadows
Building a New Professional Network
Twelve years ago Donella Meadows and I observed that around the world
there were many centers of teaching, research, and consulting on issues related
to sustainable development. But the staff members of these institutes did not
communicate with each other, and there was no central forum for them to
meet, exchange information, and provide mutual support. None of these
people were about to accept someone else's directives about the focus of their
work. But they were united by three common features: the desire and the
capacity to do work that addressed important problems, intense interest in
global problems, and a proven record of achieving influence on local decision
makers. Most importantly, each of the centers clearly saw that they could be
more effective in achieving their own goals within their own region if there was
an exchange of people and ideas between centers engaged in related work.
To realize the potential for synergism, we called leaders of this group
together for a week-long conference in the fall of 1982. The meeting was an
opportunity to become personally and professionally acquainted, to identify
areas of common interest, and to sort out a set of norms and administrative
procedures that would let all members of the group realize the benefits of
association without intruding too much on their own programs and goals.
We decided to call the association INRIC-The International Network of
Resource Information Centers. It was incorporated as a non-profit education
and research organization in the United States. We have found it comparatively easy to raise about US$50,OOO/year to pay for the central activities of the
group.
The money pays for a quarterly newsletter, The Balaton Bulletin, that runs
about 50 pages an issue and that is comprised mainly of news from the
members about their work, new programs, goals, and the opportunities they
see for joint work. Another major use of funds is to cover expenses of an
annual meeting, which brings together once a year about 50 members from the
25 centers.
The third category of expense is a venture fund that pays for travel and
meeting expenses whenever personnel from two or more of our member
centers wish to meet for discussions about a joint project. This model would
work as well for those in the gaming community who wish to come together
around projects that address the longer-term global issues.
These annual meetings have been an incredible stimulus to the work of
INRIC's members. They attract potential funders and they let us reinforce and
refine our special goals, tools, and concerns. They are a way of bringing
younger staff members rapidly to the mastery of technique and the acquaintance of the world's leading scientists in their field. There is no permanent staff,
just an administrator who works about 2 months a year to coordinate the
distribution of the newsletter, the submission of reports required to maintain
our tax-exempt status, and the organization of our annual meeting.
This approach could easily be employed to bring coordination and significant
financial support to the work of those in the gaming community who wish to
Preparing the Gaming Profession
15
collaborate with the New Earth 21 initiative and other projects that address
global issues.
The Next Steps
ISAGA is a network, not a hierarchy. That means that work does not get done
by one person assigning it to another. Instead we move ahead as a profession
when one individual or group volunteers to take on some responsibility. I will
close my formal remarks by listing some of the concrete steps we could
undertake now-especially if you find the idea appealing of a partnership in
efforts to avoid climate change.
Incorporate ISAGA as a non-profit research and teaching organization so
that it qualifies to receive foundation support. Design a first teaching workshop
that will demonstrate the use of games that address aspects of the New Earth
21's six point program. Propose to the Dutch Ministry of the Environment
that ISAGA convene a meeting of garners who could evaluate the Ministry's
proposals for a project to develop climate change negotiation games. Develop
recommendations on documentation standards, so that they could be considered for adoption by the leading journals in which we publish our work.
Prepare a large, multi-year proposal for an American or a Japanese foundation
requesting support to survey gaming curricula and gaming professionals around
the world and to develop a list of central requirements, and a proposal for
accrediting academic programs. Assemble a small group who will study the
example of INRIC and then adapt the design of that network for the purposes
of those who would like to promote the application of gaming to global issues.
The list could go on, but I believe I have made my point. There is much to
be done, and it will be easy to do it. These steps sound insignificant, but they
will lay foundations for us to tap the enormous resources of our discipline. As
Daly (1973) once observed, "The path to a sustainable society is unclear, not
because it is hard to see, but because so little effort has been spent in finding
the way."
References
ADVANTIG. Duke R (1988) Multilogue (Multilogue, 321 Parklake Ave., Ann Arbor,
MI 48103, US)
BAFA BAFA. Shirts G (1973) Simile II, Del (PO Box 910, Del Mar, CA 92014, USA)
Christopher E, Smith L (1987) Leadership training through gaming. Kogan Page,
London
Daly H (1973) Toward a steady-state economy. Freeman, San Francisco
Dolin EJ, Susskind LE (1992) A role for simulations in public policy disputes: The case
of national energy policy. Simulation and Gaming: An International Journal of
Theory, Design, and Research (23)1:20-44
Elgood C (1988) Handbook of management games. Gower, Hants, UK
Horn RE, Cleaves A (1980) The guide to simulations/games for education and training,
4th edn. Sage, Newbury Park, CA
16
Meadows
Meadows DH et al. (1972) The limits to growth. Universe Books, New York
Meadows DL et al. (1973) Toward global equilibrium. Productivity Press, Cambridge,
MA
Meadows DL et al. (1974) Dynamics of growth in a finite world. Productivity Press,
Cambridge, MA
Meadows DL et al. (1977) (ed) Alternatives to growth I: A search for sustainable
futures. Heronbrook Publications, Box 844, Durham, NH03829, USA
Meadows DH et al. (1982) Groping in the dark: The first decade of global modelling.
Wiley, New York
Meadows DH et al. (to be published) Beyond the limits. Chelsey Greene, Vermont
Ralph J, Dwyer MC (1988) Making the case: Evidence of program effectiveness in
schools and classrooms. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, USA
Publication #1989-248-893/00755
STRATEGEM. Meadows D (1984) IPSSR (Hood House, UNH, Durham, NH 03824,
US)
UNEP (1991) United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Data Report.
Basil Blackwell, Cambridge Center, MA
WHERE DO YOU DRAW THE LINE? Shirts G (1977) Simile II, Del (PO Box 910,
Del Mar, CA 92014, US)
Applying Principles of Graphic Design to
Game Design
Diana E. Shannon!
Abstract. Historically, graphic design considerations have failed to be fully realized
during the early stages of game design and construction, entering in only during the final
production stage to facilitate mass production or to meet certain publishing criteria.
Consequently, critical communication and visual decisions were left to artists most often
removed from the experience and dynamics of the gaming/simulation session. The
increasing sophistication and availability of a variety of graphics and publishing software
for PCs offer game designers the means to create and modify game materials during the
critical early stages of game construction. Appreciation, knowledge, and consideration
of the principles of graphic design is crucial, however, in order to use any graphics or
publishing software effectively, as well as to critique the work of graphic designers hired
for a game design project. This paper will recommend how best to utilize graphic design
expertise for game design projects. Through illustrated examples, this paper will introduce principles of layout, typography, and color in the creation of game materials. This
paper will also consider the implications and appropriateness of format, intended
audience, and budget on the design process.
Key words. communication; desktop publishing; graphic design; printing
Does gaming/simulation have an image problem? As both a game as well as a
graphic designer, I believe it does. Many games I have examined and played
suffer as a result of last-minute, retrofit graphic design, if there is any graphic
design at all. Poorly designed game materials result in inefficient communication dynamics which both hamper the game process and diminish the educational impact. Furthermore, such games appear dull and uninviting to play.
Consequently gaming simulations remain ineffectively used and unexploited.
What impact do your games have on current and potential users? How do
the visual and graphic components of your games affect game play? In other
words, do they keep game play running, or do they impede play by forcing
participants to scan confusing or poorly printed materials? Are your game
materials' directives self-evident, or do they require extensive explanation by
the game facilitator? Are your games designed so that they attract and hold the
attention and interest of the participants, or do they rest unexplored, perhaps
1 Shannon
Associates, RR1 Box 221A, Strafford, VT 05072, US
17
18
Shannon
even abandoned, before or during play? Do your game materials enliven
play? Do they encourage creativity or spontaneity? Are your game materials
internally consistent, and does the game as a whole convey an identity which is
sustained after the experience, for both educational and promotional benefits?
If you have concerns raised by these questions, then you need to seek out
graphic design expertise at the start of your next game design endeavor.
Graphic design concerns must be seriously considered during the entire game
design process. In this paper, I will describe what graphic design is and how it
best serves game design. I will then discuss a few major principles of graphic
design and show how I have applied them in some of my own game design
projects.
At this point it is interesting to examine where game design fits into the larger
perspective of a communications development timeline. As you can see from
Table 1, game design as we practice it today is very much a product of a long
and rich history of technological advance and social development. It has
been influenced by and owes much of its present form to cultures and trades
undergoing development and improvement for thousands of years. As game
designers, we have yet to truly appreciate and learn from the lessons and
practices of other older disciplines, among them graphic design.
What Is Graphic Design?
In his masterfully written, designed, and printed Envisioning Information,
Edward Tufte states:
We thrive in information-thick worlds because of our marvelous and
everyday capacities to select, edit, single out, structure, highlight, group,
pair, merge, harmonize, synthesize, focus, organize, condense, reduce,
boil down, choose, categorize, catalog, classify, refine, abstract, scan,
look into, idealize, isolate, discriminate, distinguish, screen, sort, pick
over, group, pigeonhole, integrate, blend, average, filter, lump, skip,
smooth, chunk, inspect, approximate, cluster, aggregate, outline, summarize, itemize, review, dip into, flip through, browse, glance into, leaf
through, skim, list, glean, synopsize, winnow wheat from chaff, and
separate the sheep from the goats (Tufte, 1990).
Gaming/simulations are "information-thick worlds" of their own. A typical
gaming session requires participants to utilize many of the above-mentioned
capacities under the pressure of practical time constraints. It is crucial, therefore, that a game's visual format aid and even encourage a game participant's
efforts under such conditions. In Graphic Design for the Electronic Age, Jan
White states that "information is neutral material. It is a data base, lying
fallow. It has to be accessed and used. Only when it is transformed into
knowledge does it have value" (White, 1988). Graphic design enables that
transformation.
Graphic Design and Game Design
19
Table 1. Communications timeline. Adapated from: White 1988
32,000BC
1600 BC
1500BC
1500 BC
105
150
600
748
770
1120
1221
1450
1465
1465
1470
1525
Earliest known cave decorations
First real alphabet developed in
Mideast; brought to Greece by
Phoenician traders around 1100
BC
First book: Egyptian book of the
Dead, a long papyrus scroll
Chinese develop ideographs
Ts'ai Lun invents paper made from
tree bark, cloth, hemp waste, and
fish net
Books of folded parchment begin
replacing scrolls
Paper making spread from China to
Korea, Japan, and Persia
First newspaper printed in Beijing
Japanese Empress Shotoku sanctions
first printing on paper; a million
prayers to ward off smallpox
epidemic
Playing cards invented in China.
Chinese developed movable type
made of wood blocks
Gutenberg invents printing press
with movable type matrices in
Mainz
Gutenberg's 42-line Bible is first
printed book with movable type
First printed music
Nicolas Jenson produces Jenson, the
first roman typeface, in Venice
Newsletter developed as an early
form of newspapers and are
widely use to keep trading houses
informed
1622
1709
1714
1718
1791
1798
1839
1855
1866
1880
1904
1930
1940
1962
1972
1972
First graphite pencil
First modern copyright act
law in England
Typewriter patent issued
First banknotes printed in
England
First Amendment to the
US Constitution which
guarantees freedom of
the press
Invention of the papermaking machine
First use of
daguerreotypes
(photographs) in
European journals.
Vegetable parchment
paper (tracing)
introduced
Lithographic printing on
metal produces
decorated tin cans
Halftone perfected for use
in newspapers
Offset printing developed
Four-color offset press
Simulation gaming begins
Xerox, electrostatic
printing introduced
Color xerography
introduced
Personal computer
concept and name
comes into use
I have found that the role of graphic design in game design is often misperceived by game designers. To begin with, graphic design is not decoration,
icing on the cake, or frills. Rather, it is functional. Graphic design organizes,
clarifies, and sharpens the communication process, thereby increasing the rate
at which game players understand their role and responsibilities during a
gaming session. Good graphic design is not a luxury only rarely affordable with
large project budgets. Instead, graphic design should be considered an investment. Successful graphic design sells itself.
Graphic design is not an afterthought, but is planned. Design success results
not from luck, innate artistic talent, intuition, or flashes of brilliance, but from
experience and from trial and error. The addition of graphic design cannot
cover for or "mask" a poor game. At its best, graphic design strengthens the
impact of a well-designed game.
20
Shannon
Graphic design is not an ends in itself-beauty, prettiness, fashion-but a
means to an end-a more effective game. And, contrary to what advertising
might suggest, graphic design is not desktop publishing but a profession with its
roots in the early printing establishments, a pursuit much older than game
design. (Desktop publishing is a new technology available to a mass market
of users, including graphic designers. However, just as an ability to use a
paintbrush does not make one a fine arts painter, using a desktop publishing
software package does not qualify one to be a graphic designer, either.)
How Does Graphic Design Fit into the Game Design
Process?
Game design projects present enormous challenges for graphic designers.
Games must be designed for multiple audiences-for players as well as for
facilitators. Game projects often involve the design or use of a myriad of
related pieces, parts, and paraphernalia. Complex game topics (complex
because game designers often grapple with issues difficult to teach in traditional
ways using books and lectures) may require a graphic designer to spend an
extensive amount of time researching appropriate symbology and styles. And
game design often includes many different specialty areas of graphic design
known formally as publication, presentation, package, and industrial design.
Altogether, not a simple job assignment.
To clarify the task facing the graphic designer, I will examine each stage of
what Greenblat (1988) has defined as the five stages of game design and
suggest how a graphic designer might best contribute to a game design team.
Stage one, Setting Objectives and Parameters, includes deciding subject matter,
purpose, potential operator, potential players, context of use, resources (for
design and play), time, and conditions of a proposed gaming simulation. If you
lack access to a graphic designer at this stage-perhaps you are writing a
proposal-then these parameters should be handed to a graphic designer at
your very first meeting. This is extremely critical information; all of these
parameters will shape the majority of graphic design decisions, particularly the
game's format (size, shape and appearance). Having these parameters early on
in a game design schedule will enable the graphic designer to think about the
game, to begin a period of creative distillation, even if the designer is not yet
actively participating in the project's work. From these parameters, a graphic
designer can provide some idea of the estimated cost of a projected production
run, always useful information when writing a proposal budget.
A graphic designer can aid greatly in stage two, Model Development. A
graphic designer's expertise in creating visual aids and schematics might
produce a sophisticated visual model most representative of the game model.
Many of my early game projects, including STRATEGEM-1, and FISH
BANKS, LTD., made repeated use of causal loop and system dynamics
modeling diagrams as the visual basis for the game model and subsequent game
Graphic Design and Game Design
21
materials, particularly the game boards. A recent game design consultation for
the United Nations Development Programme at the National Development
Planning Commission in Ghana with Cathy Greenblat involved a great amount
of graphic design time that yielded the game model schematic shown in Fig. 1.
I strongly believe that a well-designed model graphic during this stage has an
enormous chance of becoming a significant game piece. Time well-invested
here will accelerate the design process at later stages.
During stages three and four, Representation and Construction, game model
elements are assigned a particular game form and created in draft form. Here a
graphic designer may bring fresh ideas into feasible, new ways in which model
elements can be represented in the game. Game models are "communicated"
through a final physical set of game materials. Graphic designers have a great
experience determining the most relevant and efficient printed forms for
different communication needs. Constructing draft materials is also very much
a part of the graphic design routine. Graphic designers are particularly skilled
at creating "comps," which are mock-ups of a graphic piece prepared for final
client approval before being sent to the printer. Creating draft game sets with
graphic designers will teach you many new representational tricks and save
time and money in later stages, especially production. Too many games have
been created with no consideration of print production, resulting in draft game
sets so complicated that they have to be entirely redesigned at great expense.
Or even worse, they remain on the designer's shelf, in draft form, unavailable
to potential users.
If the previous stages were done well, stage five or Preparation for Use by
Others, should require little creative effort. In fact, most of the decisions
regarding mass production should have been planned in advance as a result of
work completed during the earlier stages, particularly stages one and four.
A Few Principles of Graphic Design
I have referred in preceding sections to the graphic design format of games. By
format, I mean a particular identity conveyed to users through a consistent
visual structure of all game materials. Achieving a consistent graphic design
format for a game produces a familiarity which results in more efficient game
play, as well as an identity which is remembered after the session, enhancing
the impact of lessons learned as well as advertising the game to new users.
Format is the results of numerous factors, among them layout, typography, and
color.
Layout Principles
Layouts are specific solutions to the communication needs of each game piece,
be it a booklet, a game board, or a form. The foundation of any layout is its
grid. Grids can be composed of several columns or of a single column, of equal
or varying sizes. In some cases, as with forms and game boards, they may also
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(oPYRIGHT© 1991 GRE£NBLAT/IHAHNON
Fig. 1. Graphic design principles greatly influenced the development of this game model schematic of the new planning system in Ghana
Graphic Design and Game Design
23
consist of rows. The function of grids is to provide consistency, in spite of the
fact that text and graphic elements may be changing on each page. A grid sets
the boundaries for the "live matter area," that is, the area outside of the
margins where text and graphics are placed. Do not assume that live matter
area consists of "white space" to be filled up by text and graphics. White space
on its own is a critical element of any layout, serving to contrast any black
elements and to provide visual "breathing room" to get ideas off the page and
transformed into working knowledge. Be generous in its use. Remember the
ying and yang principle, where black cannot exist without white (White 1974).
Within the layout itself, care should be taken when arranging objects relative
to each other. For example, on a game board, be aware how various borders
and area outlines impact on white space and on each other. Tufte (1983)
discusses the problem of graphical clutter whose resulting visual noise impedes
the flow of information. Desktop publishing and the plethora of accompanying
drawing programs are major culprits, providing would-be graphic designers
with exotic patterns and borders to use when simple black lines would be more
effective. Figure 2 shows a desktop-published chart in contrast to a graphicallydesigned chart. The lower chart maximized what Tufte defines as the "data-ink
ratio," the proportion of ink devoted to conveying data information over the
total ink used to print the graphic (Tufte 1983). Viewers can grasp the message
of the lower chart in a shorter, less visually fatiguing amount of time, freeing
them to proceed with other information gathering.
Layouts should entice the game players to read and to use the materials.
This can be achieved by designing interesting opening pages, employing signals
such as drop caps to announce beginning sections, or adding occasional dashes
of color. For the opening page of the HOSTAGE CRISIS player booklet,
shown in Fig. 3, I allowed much white space; the window graphic symbolically
invites players to look through or step into the game. Figure 4 shows how a
distant sun and the suggestion of a journey have been utilized to intrigue
players at the start of a CAPJEFOS session.
Layouts should consist of easy transitions from section to section, preventing
the game player from getting lost. This is why I have repeatedly chosen to
design games almost entirely of participants' booklets that contain all or a
majority of the critical materials [ENCOUNTERS WITH AIDS (1988),
HOSTAGE CRISIS (1988), DEATH OF A DISSIDENT (1990), FIRE IN
THE FOREST (1990)]. A participant booklet with clear sections, directives,
and smooth transitions requires far less work for the facilitator as well. Draft
game sets, whether consisting of booklets of players' materials or a collection
of related printed pieces and paraphernalia, should not be critiqued statically
like snapshots, but collectively like a movie, as a continuous stream of images,
much as they are presented to the player during the game. I often accomplish
this by tacking all of the pages and materials to the wall in a room, in the
sequence they are viewed by players in a game. This enables me to view the
game in its entirely, as well as evaluate its collective visual and psychological
impact.
24
Shannon
25.0
20.0
II
If
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W
15.0
J
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Fig. 2. Comparison of a desktop-published chart (upper) and a graphically-designed
chart (lower)
Typographic Principles
Roman alphabets boast over 10,000 different typefaces. Typography alone is
capable of vast expression; some examples are presented in Fig. 5. Lacking
graphics or photographs, you might find simple typographic variations to
be a neat solution for a game format. Figure 6 depicts the opening pages of
SACRILEGE IN TALBOTSVILLE, a game about the First Amendment in
which proponents of artistic freedom of expression clash with defenders of
public decency laws in a small community. Besides two typefaces, I used no
other graphical elements for the game's format, choosing to counterplay a
gothic typeface, Fetter Fraktur, with a modern face, Bodoni, and in a subtle
manner extend the game's inherent tensions (both typefaces represent conflicting philosophical and artistic esprit du temps).
Graphic Design and Game Design
~
25
ou are about to embark on an adventure,
involving the hijacking by Middle East terrorists
of an international airliner, and the holding of
hostages. You will be learning much about the
Middle East, Islam, and terrorism. You will also find
yourself thinking and talking about justice and injustice,
ethics, power, violence, human rights, national selfdetermination and aspirations, and why people from
other cultures often think very differently from us.
Participants who have played this simulation have told
us that they found most challenging the complexity of the
issues raised. They said that they had learned things that
they could not have learned from books, movies or
television. The reason is that you will be playing roles,
of terrorists, the president and his advisors, hostages, or
television correspondents. One of you may be asked
HOSTAGE CRISIS
Fig. 3. A visually inviting opening page of HOSTAGE CRISIS
The intended audience represents the major factor influencing typographic
choice. In Fig. 7, two formats of the ENCOUNTERS WITH AIDS series were
adopted to address the needs of two different audiences: adults and adolescents. Note how the format, both the typography and layout, vary based on
the intended game player.
26
Shannon
Fig. 4. A distant sun and the suggestion of a journey intrigue players at the start of
CAPJEFOS
timid
ORNATE
LOUD
ANCIENT
elegant
casual
f<~
Ratural
Fig. 5. Typography and expression
Graphic Design and Game Design
27
j\ttornel;!
~tl1;!rn
®risfno{~
18 yt!or$ old
1:1t iw rifw
IlppubUrwl
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!
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•
Oll nre. fro'lIkJv. ratlu
~ .. r~v()hed
bv
the th em .. of Ih .. II- I u tu e a ncl would
prder 1101 10 have it exh ihitccl in
jlublk. You an' rnai.~
d 31H1 th (·
mothl'r of a Iw o.~ f ear·o
l d daughter.
•
ol1r.
In
ill.·
a!hnt~\
•
l itn~
J1 i1 e ~ t il
you wonde r wha t kin d o f a wo rld
i nh ~ri
t. On bulan ef', you would
prf'fc r a l:t!.telclij!; ex hibition tn o ur. in whi rl.
I!0Vt'llmCIl I could cl f'f'rec wlwi a rt C'i li 7. ~ n s,
('an or ("a nnu l :Ie.·. Your (·ol1.se rvQli ve
Imshaml i!l lI l 'liC I Ih a l you Il r c defending .hi!!:
kind o(o. rl .
In ('ollrt. \ ' OU nHlV wiJolh In adnuu:(" th e vi c""
tltu l lh€' (";,rnmuni ty. thro ug11 illS politic'al
jJr(w"'!I
~. i ~ the prope r arbitralor of what is
u j ·Ct' I,I .. bl(", ThnjolC HI'I:H1iCd to I Ill' i h.lu e ha d
thei r
OJl
I ,o
rtuni
~
0.1 th e po lll' an,1 lol't.
You ", .. v de-dde to defen d th ~ ar ti s tic m erits
of th e S~ ral
o .s tatue a nd t he propri ety o f
finand ll:; it s exhibition with I'ubli(" funds. If
~O.
you mn~
' wi ~ h to ,Iraw o n th e followin, .
• Art is no t a bout prdtinet'!i a nd not
lim it ed to what ii< beau tiful. II expresses
our ru lture. "-"peets of ""' hiC'h may be
orfensh'C" to ii-orn e. It is a bout life. and li fe
("an he uffensh 'e .
• Ar ti!i'!i like 'ernlllo belie\'c l' trongly th a t
art ~e n ' e the pub lic in te r f'. t. By lS haking
up rea lit . wor ks of art com pel d ti ze ns 10
(Iues lion ass umptio ll s about 50ciety and
t hf" m !jel
v ~.
Th rough liclf-examinatiun ,
d liz e n ~ are (retd and empowered to
3.dr~
and d evelup rons lru r ti\'c
liolutiull S fo r proh lelll!' in soc iety.
Fig. 6. Simple typographic design gives SACRILEGE IN TALBOTSVILLE its distinctive character
Other key design considerations related to typographic decisions include
legibility. Legibility is determined by many factors , including size of type, line
length, space between lines, page size, paper type, toner/ink type, difficulty of
language, and organization. If your materials appear illegible, it is important to
consider not one, but all of these factors.
28
Shannon
ENCOUNTER 3
H1V & Your Child
ROLE
You are the Group Leader for this encounter.
Speaker A, the mother of a 12-year-old HIVpositive hemophiliac, will discuss with Speaker B,
the father, how to talk to their son about his
health condition.
GOALS
Your goals are to help the participants keep the
encounter going smoothly, to maintain the time
limits, and to lead a discussion afterwards.
RESOURCES
You have some information about the issues
that arise in this encounter. You also have a
timer to keep track of the time available for each
step of the round. When you set it, push the
number of minutes you want. Then push
"Start." The timer will immediately show one
minute less than you indicated, as it shows the
time remaining in whole minutes until it gets to
1 minute; then it shows seconds remaining.
ENCOUNTERS WITH AIDS-GROUP LEADER
27
a
Fig. 7a,b Two formats of the ENCOUNTERS WITH AIDS series used to address
adults (a) and adolescents (b)
Graphic Design and Game Design
29
Who are the Speakers?
S
peaker A is Joyce, a six1een year
old. Keisha, one of her best friends
since third grade, was in a serious
car accident in 1984. It seems that the
U.S. blood supply wasn't being screened
for HIV at that ~me,
and Keisha had a lot
of blood transfusions. Last month, Keisha's
doctor told her to get tested for HIV. The
test showed that she is HIV positive-that
she is infected with HIV. She has no
symptoms of AIDS.
S
peaker B is Darryl, a 16 year old.
everal years ago, Keisha, a friend
from his neighborhood, was in a
car a-:cident. Because she had a lot of
blood transfusions then, her doctor hod
her tested for AIDS. The test showed that
she is infected with HIV.
Darryl was shocked at the news because
he never thought someone he knew could
get AIDS. He and other peaple hove been
staying away from her lately. It's sad, but
Darryl can't blame them-nobady wants
ta get AIDS and die. He likes Keisha, but
he's not taking any chances.
In this encounter, you will
1
2
3
help the encounter run smoothly
keep the Speakers with the time limits, and
lead a discussion afterwards.
b
30
Shannon
Color Principles
Like typography, color is capable of enormous expression (White 1990). Color
has many functions in graphic design, among them to label, emphasis, locate,
analyze, identify, unify, and pace. Color attracts attention, and anything on a
page in color will be noticed first. While it is critical that important page
elements be in color so they are noticed, too much color highlighting decreases
the impact of all color use. Too much color, particularly in text sections, is not
readable. Bright colors are effective in small spaces, dull or pale colors in large
ones.
When choosing colors, keep in mind the intended audience. While some
colors have universal meanings (red means "stop" or "warning" in most parts
of the world), color has inherent cultural significance. Remember that 8% of
men and 1% of women are color-impaired, with red and green being most
problematic. In consideration of such audiences as well as in anticipation of
less than ideal photocopying conditions, try to introduce shape and texture, as
well as color, into critical game symbology. Some examples are shown in
Fig. 8.
Conclusion
What has been lacking to date in many game design endeavors is the contribution of a sufficiently trained and experienced visual perspective. I have
noted just a few graphic design principles and examples which will aid in the
+
DODO
Fig. 8. Examples of shape and texture that can be used for game symbology
Graphic Design and Game Design
31
creation of more effective game materials. The nature of gaming/simulation
has attracted many users and designers who appreciate multi-disciplinary
approaches to problem solving and education. Let us then find more opportunities to enlist the expertise and experience of graphic designers in our work.
References
Capjefos. Greenblat CS, et al. (1987) CSG Enterprises (40 East 19th St., New York,
NY 10003)
Death of a Dissident. Kennedy M, Keys M, Shannon DE (1990) The Moorhead
Kennedy Institute of the American Forum for Global Education (45 John St., Suite
908, New York, NY 10038)
Encounters with Aids. Greenblat CS, Gagnon, Shannon DE (1988) CSG Enterprises
(40 East 19th St., New York, NY 10003)
Fire in the Forest. Kennedy M, Keys M, Shannon DE (1990) The Moorhead Kennedy
Institute of the American Forum for Global Education (45 John St., Suite 908, New
York, NY 10038)
Fish Banks, Ltd. Meadows DL, Shannon DE, Fiddaman T (1987) IPSSR (University of
New Hampshire, Durham, NH, 03824)
Greenblat CS (1988) Designing Games and Simulations. Sage, Newbury Park
Hostage Crisis. Kennedy M, Keys M, Shannon DE (1988) The Moorhead Kennedy
Institute of the American Forum for Global Education (45 John St., Suite 908, New
York, NY 10038)
Sacrilege in Talbotsville Kennedy M, Keys M, Shannon DE (1990) The Moorhead
Kennedy Institute of the American Forum for Global Education (45 John St., Suite
908, New York, NY 10038)
Strategem-l. Meadows DL, Toth FL, Naumienko E, Shannon DE (1986) IPSSR
(University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, 03824)
Tufte ER (1983) The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Graphics, Chesire
Tufte ER (1990) Envisioning Information. Graphics, Chesire
White JV (1974) Editing by Design. Bowker, New York
White JV (1988) Graphic Design for the Electronic Age. Watson-Guptill, New York
White JV (1990) Color for the Electronic Age. Watson-Guptill, New York
Diana Shannon is a freelance graphic and game designer based in Strafford,
Vermont. She has collaborated on numerous game design projects in Africa,
Mexico, Europe, and the CIS. When not designing games, she enjoys crosscountry skiing, biking, and gardening.
A Global Model of Simulation and
Game Evaluation
Dany Laveault1, Michel St-Germain 2, and Pierre Corbeil 3
Abstract. A global model of simulation and game evaluation is necessary if one is to
demonstrate the anticipated benefits of games for learning or to develop more useful
and efficient games. Many criteria and aspects of evaluation have already been documented. The relationship among these criteria and the functions and goals of evaluation
are not, however, always clear. Important new criteria and interactions need to be
emphasized. We have developed an evaluation model that blends new and wellestablished criteria. We have applied them to different aspects of evaluation of simulation and games and tried to integrate them in a global and systemic model. An
application of the model to the evaluation of educational software is also considered.
Key words. design; education; educational software; evaluation; global model;
simulation/gaming
Confusion in determining proper evaluation procedures is a direct consequence
of confusion in defining the function of evaluation at different phases of the
game development. Each function of evaluation requires specific instruments
of measurement. The goals of evaluation are different for game designers and
game consumers. The first aspire to formative evaluation that will help build a
better game. The second prefer a more summative form of evaluation that
provides the criteria for the selection of a game among its competitors.
The model we have developed builds on some of the criteria used in research
methodology, in education and in the social sciences. It applies them to
different aspects of evaluation of simulation and games. The selection of an
appropriate methodology of evaluation is a function of the goals of evaluation,
of the moment the evaluation occurs, and of the person doing the evaluation.
Some of these methodologies concern the evaluation of a game while it is still
'Facuite d'education, 145 Jean-Jacques-Lussier, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1N 6N5;
phone (613)564-7728; facsimile (613)564-9098; e-mailladta@uottawa.bitnet
2 As!; phone (613)564-6561
3960, rue Saint-Georges, Drummondville, Quebec, Canada J2C 6A2; phone (819)4784671; facsimile (819)474-6859
32
Simulation and Game Evaluation
33
in its conceptual phase. Some others are more appropriate to test a prototype
of the game and the success of its application in different contexts.
Two important phases of evaluation are described in general ter.ms in Fig. 1.
They are:
1. Ex ante evaluation. At this stage, the goals of evaluation are mainly
formative. The game designer wants to know how the prototype can be
improved. This phase of evaluation includes two different aspects. First, in
terms of internal criticism, the evaluation deals with absolute criteria of
evaluation that determine the value of the game in itself. Second, in terms
of external criticism, evaluation deals with relative criteria. These criteria
help to compare the value of the game to that of similar games. Both
evaluations involve the game designer.
2. Ex post evaluation. At this stage, the designer has produced a working
version of the game to be field-tested. The goals of this evaluation are both
formative and summative. They subsume three main aspects. The first,
evaluation of learning, deals with several facets of learning, whether it is
learning the game or learning from the game. The second, game calibration,
considers how well adapted the game is to the needs of the end users. The
third, evaluation of the debriefing session, assesses the merits of the debriefing on the learning process. These aspects involve both the game users
and the game participants. They are useful in helping the designer to
improve the game and its documentation.
For conceptual simplicity, we have defined separately each of these phases.
A systemic model of game evaluation, however, implies there are interactions
among the aspects. They are addressed in the section dealing with the evaluation of important interactions.
Ex Ante Evaluation
Ex ante evaluation occurs at the conceptual phase of game construction. Figure
2 illustrates the criteria associated with the two main aspects of ex ante evaluation: internal and external criticism. Following is a description of the criteria
associated with each aspect of this evaluation.
Internal Criticism
The criteria of internal criticism correspond to validity, reliability, and utility.
These criteria and their connection with simulation and game evaluation have
been described at length in a paper by Ruben and Lederman (1982). Our
purpose here is not to describe them again but to relate them to other criteria
in a global model of evaluation.
Validity seeks to determine whether the game model is a proper reconstruction of the phenomenon it describes. It includes face validity and construct
validity (for more information, see Ruben and Lederman 1982). Norris and
34
Laveault et al.
,....--- Remediation -+-"'lI
Formative
evaluation
Internal criticism
External criticism
.....-1~
Diagnostic feedback
I
Learning
• The game
• From the game
• set
• group dynamics
• psychological profile
- formal development
- moral development
- cognitive styles
- attitudes
Final adjustments
Summative
evaluation
Debriefing
• content
-moment
Fig. 1. Outline of a global model of simulation and games evaluation
Simulation and Game Evaluation
Internal criticism
Validi
Reliabili
- Internal
- Product stability
- External
- Process stability
35
Utili
- Cost-benefit
ratio
- Face
- Construct
I
External criticism
Ergonomics of
the material
Suitability of
activities
- Manageability
- Credibility
- Ease of
administration
- Synchronicity
- Continuity of
feedback
- Symmetry
Compatibility
with other games
- Concomitant
validity
- Predictive validity
Fig. 2. Criteria associated with ex ante evaluation
Snyder (1982) offer an additional consideration on validity. They distinguish
between internal and external validity.
Reliability refers to the reoccurrence of learning outcomes across several
plays. Depending on whether the game is internally or externally parametered,
the assessment of reliability will focus more on learning processes or on
products.
Utility involves a cost and benefits analysis of the game. This analysis checks
that the goals of the game are achieved at a reasonable cost. Costs include not
only financial units, but also time on task, efforts, and so on.
External Criticism
Elder (1975) lists six characteristics that can help to rate a game in comparison
to other games. We have added two more characteristics to his initial list and
grouped all eight as follows: suitability, ergonomics, and compatibility.
Suitability seeks to determine whether a game is appropriate for a certain
clientele. It includes credibility, symmetry, and synchronicity. Ergonomics
considers whether the game is user friendly and allows for an easy and fast flow
of information among players. Criteria about ergonomics include manageability, ease of administration, and continuity of feedback.
36
Laveault et al.
Game designers can build on the frame of previous games. Standard frames
are specially useful since they allow users to tryout new games without
spending too much time on learning the game. The use of computers increases
the need for common interfaces. Corbeil et al. (1989) distinguish between two
kinds of compatibility: concomitant (or frame) validity and predictive (or
chain) validity.
A game may be more effective than another because it has a better framework or more familiar user interface: this is concomitant validity. Furthermore,
simple, interacting games are preferable to a single, complex game. When the
approach and activities are compatible throughout the series of games and
when a game is a pre-condition to other activities in the chain, the game has
predictive (or chain) validity.
Summary
Internal criticism is useful in assessing whether the conceptual model of the
game is appropriate. External criticism aims at assessing whether a game is
user friendly. The coordination of these two aspects is important: a bad conceptual model of the game may reinforce some partial knowledge or simplistic
perceptions of reality. The conceptual model is of utmost importance. External
criticism is not relevant if the conceptual model is flawed. However good the
model is, it is not going to be efficient if the ergo no my and the suitability of the
game are not appropriate.
Ex Post Evaluation
Ex post evaluation may proceed once a prototype of the game is available. It is
then possible to experiment with the different modalities of playing the game.
This is necessary to determine how successful the game is in reaching its goals.
Ex post evaluation deals with the fine-tuning of the game model, as well as the
game materials, including the user's and the game leader's guide. After the
game has been played several times or for a period of time, some insight may
emerge on the best way to use the game and on what the debriefing approach
should be. This phase of game evaluation includes three different aspects: (1)
evaluation of learning, (2) evaluation of game calibration, and (3) evaluation of
the debriefing session. Here is a description of each of these aspects.
Evaluation of Learning
This evaluation is two-fold: it deals as much with the processes involved in
learning the game as with the processes involved in learning from the game.
Laveault and Corbeil (1990) have used Kolb's model of experiential learning
(Kolb 1974) to describe the processes involved in both kinds of learning. Figure
3 illustrates the two learning cycles involved.
Each cycle follows this sequence: concrete experience, reflexive observation,
abstract conceptualization, and active experimentation. The first cycle starts
Simulation and Game Evaluation
37
with the concrete experience of game rules and ends with the active experimentation of game strategies. The second cycle starts with the concrete
experience of the conceptual model and ends with the active experimentation
of the concepts to be learned through the conceptual model.
The first cycle is about learning the game. No ex post evaluation is possible if
the participants do not have some expertise with the game rules. This means
that the participants are not only aware of the game rules but have developed
some fluency in game strategy through the complex coordination of game rules.
The easier it is to learn the game, the sooner learning will arise from the
concepts modeled by the game.
The second cycle is about learning from the game. There is little learning
from the game without some learning of the game. Evaluation of learning from
the game has to be related to the game's learning objectives and to the game's
type. For example, it may be easier to reach objectives of creativity with an
internally parametered game. Other reasons that may explain why learning
does not occur include (1) learning the game takes too much time, (2) the
game design (e.g., degree of parametrization) is not appropriate for the
learning objectives, and (3) the game model is invalid or unreliable.
Evaluation of Game Calibration
This aspect of evaluation determines how appropriate the game activities are in
terms of the learning experience. Relevance of the activities depends on the
CE .... RO
CYCLE #2
AC.-"
AE
CE
rRO
CYCLE #1
"--AC/
Legend: CE: concrete experience
RO: reflexive observation
AC: abstract conceptualization
AE: active experimentation
Fig. 3. Learning cycles in a simulation game
38
Laveault et al.
objectives of the game. The game may be intended for the discovery of new
of dealing with a problem (exfacts, new ideas, new concepts, new w~ys
ploratory learning). It may also be intended for the actualization of previously
acquired knowledge, concepts, or ideas (confirmatory learning).
To check the game calibration, the game evaluator has to pay attention to
the following factors:
1. Set. Participants are not always prepared to use games as a method for
learning. They should be aware that their involvement in the game is
important. They should also have a rough idea of the way they will learn
from the experience. Evaluation should include consideration of what has
been done to create the right learning set among the participants.
2. Group dynamics. Some games involve group dynamics to an important
extent. The group dynamics and the game user's ability to capitalize on
them may affect the prospect of reaching the game's objectives. Evaluation
should determine how important the group dynamics are to the achievement
of the game's objectives.
3. Psychological profile of the participants. To produce stable learning, the
game developer must consider the personal characteristics of the game
users. They include:
a. Formal development. The ability to play the game depends partly on
the participant's cognitive ability. Furthermore, the likelihood of using
higher forms of reasoning is dependent on the subject's familiarity with
the content of problem-solving situations. Game players may thus refrain
from using higher levels of reasoning in non-familiar or non-credible
game situations.
b. Moral development. When games involving moral values are aimed at
changing attitudes, the level of moral development should be considered
(see Kohlberg 1981). Game rules may reinforce some moral values to the
detriment of others. The implicit morality of the game may also conflict
with some players' system of values. It is crucial to take this into account
if the outcome of the game determines a winner in a way that is inconsistent with some players' concepts of good and bad.
c. Cognitive styles. These are important in two different and complementary ways. To accelerate learning, the game developer may try
to match the game activities and materials with the users' learning
characteristics. To develop new learning abilities, the designers may
stress learning approaches that are unfamiliar to the game user. In the
first case, the emphasis will be on the adaptation and customization of
the game materials, scenarios, and feedback. In the second case, it will
be on the diversification of the modalities of learning.
d. Attitudes. Evaluation of attitudes seek to answer two main questions:
what are the attitudes of the players about the game, and has there
been a change in the players' attitudes according to the game's affective objectives. In education, one important reference on this matter
is the taxonomy of affective objectives of Krathwohl et al. (1964),
Simulation and Game Evaluation
39
which describes five hierarchical levels of interiorization of affective
learning.
Evaluation of the Debriefing Session
Debriefing is a basic part of game and simulation activities if participants are to
benefit from their social or transactional aspect. A good debriefing session will
help the participant to reflect objectively on the learning experience and gain
new knowledge from this reflection. Debriefing may occur alone or in a group
and may take place whenever the game has started. Evaluation of a debriefing
session should pay special attention to the content of debriefing and to the
moment it occurs.
Evaluation of debriefing sessions must determine if appropriate means
have been taken to prepare the participants. Many factors may impinge on
the usefulness of a group debriefing session. The discussion on the learning
experience should not refer to a participant's learning capacity or capacity to
change. Such matters may make participants defensive. It should be done
independently of the evaluation of the game as a learning tool or as an
entertaining activity. It must also reinforce the expression of opinions and the
description of one's own learning experience.
Though comparisons among players are inevitable, the debriefing session
should not emphasize them. Possible consequences of excessive interindividual
comparisons may result in an increase in conformity, social desirability, or an
"Emperor's new clothes" syndrome, where participants feel compelled to
perceive what has been perceived by others.
To assess the merits of a debriefing session, learning from the game should
be measured before and after the debriefing session. In formal testing procedures, one can use a typical measure of change, such as the sensitivity to
teaching index (see Roid and Haladyna 1982). Such an index may help to
discover the facets of learning where the debriefing session has been the most
instrumental.
Evaluation of Important Interactions
The global evaluation of a game must consider the interactions that may occur
among criteria. Some of these interactions may change the final judgement on
the game and may also convey significant formative information. For illustrative purposes, five of these interactions ·are detailed below.
1. Moral development and credibility. Some simulations or games may lack
credibility because they are in contradiction with some of the players' moral
convictions or system of values.
2. Formal development and manageability. Some aspects of game management
may be too much for people who have not reached a certain level of formal
development. In this condition, the game has to be either more manageable or targeted more precisely to a specific population.
40
Laveault et al.
3. Cognitive styles and ease of administration. The ease of administration may
depend on the perceptual and learning modes of the players. One solution
would consist in mUltiplying the ways of playing with the game materials.
This would bring out, however, some other problems of manageability and
ease of administration.
4. Set and attitudes. Overstating the advantages of a game as a learning method
may be as detrimental as understating the value of a game. Evaluation of
attitudes towards the game must include the effect of set on the players'
attitudes and learning expectancies.
5. Compatibility and learning the game. Less time will be spent on learning the
game if the game frame is already familiar to the players. As a result, more
time will be spent on learning from the game. The time on task is important
in assessing the game's effectiveness.
Evaluation of Computer-Based Games and Simulations
The evaluation of computer-based games and simulations proceeds as in the
global model of evaluation described above. Some criteria, however, have
been added and receive a different emphasis. Among the evaluation criteria set
up by Gillis for the Ministry of Education of Ontario (Gillis undated) one can
identify the following as specially important:
1. Compatibility. There is no point in using a computer if the same results may
be achieved by similer means, such as paper and pencil materials.
2. Technical reliability. The software must run correctly despite human
mistakes. It must also be able to run on different machines of the same
type, whatever their specific configuration.
3. Documentation. The evaluation of documentation is specially important. It
must illustrate clearly how to use the software, whether this be on screen or
on paper.
4. Feedback. Software can be specially good or bad at feedback. In some
cases, it is possible for a player to use the feedback option as a tool to reach
the right answer, instead of trying the different strategies that are intended
as the path to learning. A good feedback procedure requires that the
information received by the participant does not exceed his capacity to
process it.
5. Manageability. Complex games are difficult to manage. They gain from
being done on a computer. The ergonomics of the screen/page design and
of the input and output formats influence how the player manages this
information. There is a point, however, when one should consider splitting
a game that is too complex. Very often, the players themselves will make a
complex software more simple. They simply skip some of the important
options of the game.
6. Symmetry. Computers have great potential to deal adequately with
symmetry. The players may assume different roles. The computer also
Simulation and Game Evaluation
41
makes it easier to replay a game since the presence of other players is not
always essential.
7. Ease of administration. Some software may be difficult to install. Some also
requires some form of help during the game or simulation session. Proper
documentation, on-line help, and self-tutorial materials will ease administration. Evaluation must consider the interaction between ease of administration and documentation quality to make valid recommendations.
Conclusion
A global system of evaluation of game and simulation activities must consider a
series of criteria as well as their interactions. Failure to do so may result in
either rejecting potentially good games or accepting inadequate games. On the
one hand, one faulty criterion interacting with many others may give the wrong
impression that a game is irreparable. On the other hand, omission of some
important criteria may lead to the acceptance of a weak game or simulation
activity. This is why a global model of evaluation is so important.
The same global model may be used for the evaluation of educational
computer software. The specific nature of the computer media requires,
however, that some criteria receive special attention .
. So far, we have considered double interactions in our model. The study of
even higher interactions, though more difficult, may prove very useful. Such
conditions of evaluation are necessary, not only to make better judgement but
also to better understand what makes a good game or simulation activity.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank Martine Clement, consultant in Educational
Technology, for her help in creating the artwork for the figures.
References
Corbeil P, Laveault D, St-Germain M (1989) Games and Simulation Activities: Tools
for International Development Education. Canadian International Development
Agency, Ottawa
Elder CD (1975) Problems in the structure and use of educational simulations. In: CS
Greenblat, RD Duke (eds) Gaming-Simulation: Rationale, Design and Applications.
Wiley, New York
Gillis L (undated) Un plan d'evaluation formative des logiciels types. Centre
d'informatique scolaire, Ministere de l'education de l'Ontario, Toronto
Greenblat CS (1975) Gaming-simulation for teaching and training: an overview. In: CS
Greenblat, RD Duke (eds) Gaming-Simulation: Rationale, Design and Applications.
Wiley, New York
Kohlberg L (1981) The philosophy of moral development: Moral stages and the idea of
justice. Harper and Row, San Francisco
Kolb DA (1974) On management and the learning process. In: DA Kolb et al. (eds).
Organizational Psychology. Jossey Bass, Englewood Cliffs, NJ
42
Laveault et al.
Krathwohl DR, Bloom BS, Masia BB (1964) Taxonomy of Educational Objectives,
Handbook II: The Affective Domain. McKay, New York
Laveault D, Corbeil P (1990) Assessing the impact of simulation games on learning: A
step-by-step approach. Simulation/Games for Learning 20(1):42-54
Norris DR, Snyder CA (1982) External validation of simulation games. Simulation &
Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 13(1):73-85
Roid GH, Haladyna TM (1982) A Techn9logy for test-item writing. Academic, New
York
Ruben BD, Lederman LC (1982) Instructional simulation gaming: Validity, reliability
and utility. Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and
Research 13(2):233-244
Dany Laveault is full professor in Measurement and Evaluation,
University of Ottawa. His main interest is the evaluation of simulation
and games, specially those used as educational software for computerassisted instruction.
Michel St-Germain, associate professor, is currently the director of the
Formation a l'enseignement (Teacher Education Department) at the
Faculty of Education of the University of Ottawa. He regularly uses the
case method in his teaching activities in education administration. He has
developed a computer management game and integrated decision-making
assitance systems for the Education Policy and Planning Division of
UNESCO.
Pierre Corbeil teaches histc ry at CEGEP de Drummondville. He holds
degrees from the University of Toronto and the Universite de Montreal.
He has designed several simulation games. His interests include wargaming and writing science-fiction (in French). He is presently a member
of the NASAGA Board.
Information Technology and
Simulation Games
Gee Kin Yeo l
Abstract. Most simulation games have been designed with predetermined rules. When
computerized, their game data and administration rules are locked in the program codes
with changes permitted only to the extent allowed for by the program. A framework
for developing simulation games using the present information technology has been
proposed in order to decrease the difficulty in the transfer of the game from the game
designer to the game administrator, to increase the flexibility of game administration,
and to improve the learning process for the game participants. In turn, simulation
games can be useful in the learning of information technology. Within the suggested
framework, the roles of the game designer and the game administrator can be combined
easily to enhance the educational perspectives of a game, and using it in courses such as
decision-support systems or quantitative methods.
Key words. game administration; game design; information technology; learning;
simulation games
Most simulation games have been designed with predetermined rules. When
computerized, their game data and administration rules are locked in the
program codes, which allow only certain changes. Many recent computerized
simulation games also come with administration systems and certain support
features for participants. They are known as simulation game systems (SG2 ). A
framework for developing and maintaining SG2 has been proposed by Yeo
(1991). It can decrease the difficulty of transfer of a game from the game
designer to the game administrator, increase the flexibility of game administration, and improve the learning process for the game participants. The framework takes into consideration the different requirements, of the different
groups of people involved with a simulation game, namely, the game designer,
the game administrator, and the game participants. In the framework, a Model
Specification System is used to describe the game model and a Game Specification System is used to describe how the game is to be played. The result is a set
1 Department
of Information Systems and Computer Science, National University of
Singapore, Kent Ridge, Singapore 0511, Republic of Singapore; phones 065-772-2908
(w), 065-469-3238 (h); facsimile 065-779-4580; e-mail yeogk@nusvm.bitnet
43
44
Yeo
of generated routines that can be combined with some development tools, as
well as in the framework, to facilitate the building of the game administration
system and the participants' support system. In Yeo and Ho (1990), it has been
shown that a system of management games developed in such a framework
allows business information to be flexibly disseminated and game performance
of participants to be more adequately evaluated. Figure 1 shows the analogy of
the SG2 to the decision-support system (DSS) generator. Decision-support
systems can be built with DSS tools, but are more easily generated with DSS
generators; likewise, simulation game systems can be built with general
programming tools but are more easily generated in SG2 .
In this paper, I shall discuss the information technology employed in the
implementation of the framework. Relevant features of database management
systems (DBMS), fourth generation languages (4GL), and DSS generators will
be drawn. I shall also discuss how the roles of the game designer and the game
administrator can easily be combined within the framework to enhance the
educational perspectives of a game, and use of it in a course in DSS or in
quantitative methods.
Data Management
Most existing simulation games use the traditional approach to data management, resulting in the well-known, associated problems such as difficulty in
accessing data, redundancies in data, data security, and the lack of data
independence. In view of these problems, a database approach is used in the
Specific Simulation Game Systems
Simulation Game System Tools
Fig. 1. Analogy of the simulation game systems (SG 2 ) to the decision-support system
(DSS).
Information TechnoLogy and SimuLation Games
45
SG2 • The three-level architecture (the internal, conceptual, and external levels)
provides physical and logical data independence. The data required by the
entire simulation/game system are defined through the conceptual schemas.
How the data is stored in the database, that is, the internal schema, is taken
care of by the DBMS, thereby providing physical data independence. External
schemas with the appropriate access authorizations are defined to give the
simulation software, the game administrator, and the participants their "views"
of the database. Any change in their data access rights are changed through
their respective external schemas, thus providing logical data independence.
At the heart of the SG2 is a data dictionary (Allen et al. 1982). The data
dictionary is the knowledge base of the simulation game. It will hold all the
information the SG2 needs to know about a specific simulation/game in order
to support the development and maintenance of its administration system and
participants' support systems. Minimally, it is to contain the attributes and edit
criteria for each data element, such as type, width, output format, range, input
pattern, and screen and report labels. It can also be extended to maintain a
centralized source of information on all program modules and their required
resources. Thus the detailed function, data requirement, or side effects of a
PRODUCTION subroutine in a management game, for example, can also be
documented in the dictionary. Ideally, it is to be an active data dictionary,
meaning that additions or modifications to the data elements, the data structures, and the way in which they are used must be made through additions or
changes to it. Maintenance of the possible versions of a simulation/game can
therefore be controlled.
W~en
data elements have been defined and their relationship captured in
the data dictionary and the DBMS, the simulation/game becomes only an
application program manipulating them. With an existing simulation/game, a
parser can be used to derive the data elements from the program. Otherwise,
the semantics implied by the relation expression documented in the data
dictionary can actually be used to provide the programming logic in routines
that can eventually be combined to become the whole simulation program.
Obviously, queries on the database and even complex manipulation can be
achieved with the data manipulation language provided with the DBMS.
Fourth Generation Languages and DSS Generators
A good user interface, consistent screen design, and quick report and program
generation are the main features of the 4GL (Martin 1985) used in prototyping
the SG2 . On-line contextual help is easily provided (i.e., the information given
depends on the position of the cursor at the time the HELP key is pressed).
The interface between the 4GL with the DBMS provides the facilities for
maintaining data integrity. For example, when help is requested for a particular Participant Game Data or Game Parameter, the information given is
taken from their description stored in the data dictionary. Because 4GLs are
designed for on-line operations, the following features are possible:
46
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Yeo
Errors can be detected as soon as they are made.
Cross-validations dependent on other data values can be performed prior to
the values being saved.
Pop-up windows and form-filling for data entries can be used where
possible.
Standard screens for entering, displaying, and checking data are usually
generated as soon as data have been defined. Facilities are also available for
controlling the layout, content, and information shown on the screen to suit
user's needs. Designing reports in the 4GL environment is easy. The report
generator will display the fields of the database tables and let the user choose
those to be included in the report. Facilities such as sorting, record grouping,
and data aggregation are commonly available. Thus, performance evaluation of
the simulation game with simple evaluation rules can easily be built in with just
the report generation facilities.
Continuing development in the 4GLs leads to the enhancement of decisionsupport facilities. These include functions for modeling and multidimensional
presentation of data. With proper interfaces built on the data dictionary and
other components of the simulation/game system, these facilities can be made
available for game participants to build their own support systems for decision
making in the game. Yeo and Nah (to be published) describe the construction
of a participants' support system making use of a well-known DSS generator.
The framework of SG2 supports the extraction of relevant data from the game
database to form a database just for the participants. Data access tables from
the DBMS defined earlier by the game administrators are consulted during the
extraction. Decision model building and maintenance, what-if, and scenario
analysis capabilities are provided with the DSS language.
CAL for Information Technology
Management games have traditionally been used to support management
courses in providing a simulated environment for exercising managerial skills in
problem solving. Courses on information systems may also benefit from the use
of simulation games. Building a DSS requires task context training where the
user is shown how to produce output and how to use that output in the context
of a given job function. I have employed a management game to support a
course on DSS in the Department of Information Systems and Computer
Science at the National University of Singapore (Yeo et al. 1990). The course
is offered to the 3rd-year students in information systems who have studied
core courses in computer science. A first objective of the course is to let the
students see the advantages of the need to support decision making with
information systems. The second objective is to apply the present information
technology to fulfill such needs. The management game is used to provide an
environment for simulated decision making for which information systems may
Information Technology and Simulation Games
47
be built. Another promising area in using the management game in connection
with the course is in examining the group decision-making process.
Extensions or modifications can easily be made to the simulation/game to
provide simulated data evolution to support a course in DBMS. For example,
the periodically-generated data from the game provides an excellent example
of a temporal database. In supporting a course in quantitative methods for
management, different problem areas could be explored to provide exercises
in applications of operations research and statistical analysis. For example,
decisions on the production levels of consumers and industrial products can be
formulated as a linear programming problem. The complex decision situation
generally existing in simulation/games provides good examples for practice on
multi-criteria decision making.
Software engineering economics can also be learnt using simulation/game
systems. A simulated software house can be designed to incorporate decision
making in areas such as hardware and software acquisition, project scheduling,
control, and manpower planning.
Conclusion
The preceding paragraphs examine the support of existing information technology in building a new generation of simulation/game systems, and how
simulation/game systems may, in reverse, support the teaching of existing
information technology. New information technologies continue to emerge. To
this date, concepts in multimedia and hypertext, neural networks, objectoriented design, and programming are being actively discussed in computer
science and information systems literature. Applications of these concepts in
building better simulation/game systems and the utilization of them in teaching
should be included in the directions for researchers in simulation/games.
References
Allen FW, Loomis MES, Mannino MV (1982) The integrated dictionary/directory
system. Computing Survey pp 245-286
Martin J (1985) Fourth generation languages (vol. 1). Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs,
NJ
Yeo GK (1991) A framework for developing simulation game systems. Simulation &
Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 3(22):308-327
Yeo GK, Ho CL (1990) Information dissemination and performance evaluation in
simulation game systems, Technical Report TR21190. Department of Information
Systems and Computer Science, National University of Singapore
Yeo GK, Nah FH (to be published) A participants' DSS for a management game with a
DSS generator. Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design,
and Research
Yeo GK, Nah FR, Chew BW (1990) Initial observations from learning DSS in
a simulated decision environment, Technical Report TRIO/90. Department of
Information Systems and Computer Science, National University of Singapore
48
Yeo
Gee Kin Yeo has been responsible for developing MAGNUS, a management game. She is a senior lecturer in the Department of Information
Systems and Computer Science and has been teaching courses in operations
research and decision support systems. A member of the ACM, the Computer Society of IEEE, and the International Association for Statistical
Computing, her current research interests include model management in
decision-support systems and computers in education. She is a member of
the Editorial Board of Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal of
Theory, Design, and Research.
Towards a Concept of Meta-Game:
Some Applied Results
Yusaku Shibata!, Hirofumi Kurihara 2, and Shinzo Takatsu 3
Abstract. When the situation of a game is extremely uncertain, players should first
define a general game framework. Such a game can be called a meta-game because
the purpose of the game is to define the framework. Global problems are infinitely
uncertain, and require a high degree of cooperation between international organizations
that generally does not occur without some kind of catalytic coordination. The first
objective of the meta-game is for all players to understand the process of global
problem solving. The second objective is to understand team coordination. Sustaining
such a massive coordination over a long period and retaining policy stability throughout
the process are the basic requisites of complex problem solving. Sustained drive and
energy, as well as a creative catalytic leadership style, are scarce skills within our
society.
Key words. catalytic coordination; crisis management; decision making; general
framework; global problem; meta-game; policy
Uncertainty and complexity are buzz words in the study of global problems. In
order to solve these problems, international organizations must cooperate
under focused strategies yet still have a flexible management style (Mushakoji
1990, Chadwick 1990). The key factor in this effort is the structural change of
institutions based on a new way of thinking. Puri and Bhide (1981) insisted that
the difficulties and risks in institutional change will be especially formidable for
the Japanese culture:
... the ability to innovate and explore the uncharted is precisely what
separates the leader from the industry follower. The Japanese system
1 Coordination Bureau, SINPL-MEGANET, 7-22-14 Imaizumidai, Kamakura, 247
Japan; phone and facsimile 0467-45-5981
2Information and Systems Laboratory, Tonen Corporation, Shuwa Iidabashi Building,
2-3-19 Koraku, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 112 Japan; phones 03-5684-1525 (w) 0474-48-1194
(h); facsimile 03-5684-1539
3 Department of Business Administration, Senshu University, 2-1-1 Higashimita, Tamaku, Kawasaki, 214 Japan; phones 044-911-7131 (w) 03-3488-0320 (h); facsimile 044-9111241
49
50
Shibata et al.
has shown great strength in coming up from behind. But the kind of
organizational skills that were needed for catching up are probably not
appropriate for being at the cutting edge. In time, Japanese society and
industrial organizations may transform themselves in order to fulfill these
new tasks. Until then, non-Japanese competitors have real opportunities
to hold their own by exploiting Japanese institutional rigidities.
Drucker (1981) has a completely different opinion:
What is a fact is that the secret behind Japan's economic achievement is
not a mysterious Japan, Inc., a creation that belongs, if anywhere, in
some Hollywood grade B movie. Far more likely, it is that Japan-at
present alone among the major industrial nations-has addressed herself
to defining the rules for a complex, pluralist society of large organizations
in a world of rapid change and increasing interdependence.
However, these contradictory statements indicate an important common
point, which is that many organizations, regardless of whether they are
Japanese or non-Japanese, are trying to adapt to a changing world. Complex
innovations will come up against many obstacles. This makes a new meta-game
not only desirable but also indispensable. This paper describes the features of
complex problem solving, the obstacles, a conceptual design of a meta-game
named SINPL, and experimentally applied results of this concept to the
planning of future generation manufacturing systems.
An Example of a Complex Problem
Future Manufacturing Trends
According to a report by ATKearney (1988), manufacturing industries are
faced with new challenges which are caused by mounting global competition
and accelerated innovation. Decision making will become more complicated in
terms of where to make or buy materials and parts across the world. Strategic
alliances between companies and cooperative production agreements will be
added to an increasingly complex manufacturing equation. External social
influences will also alter the manufacturing environment. There will be more
women and minorities at work. The work force will become older, and will
have greater difficulty in adapting to changes. While some countries will
continue to use innovative methods to curtail imports, aggressive companies
will learn how to overcome trade obstacles. The political climate between the
East and the West will continue to improve.
In a report to the EC Commission, Cooley (1989) pointed out that, although
many people believe that we need better technology and more financial power
to be competitive, what firms truly need is better human and organizational
innovation and greater integration of technical, human, and organizational
elements. However, our future will never belong to powerful bureaucracies,
but to human organizations that will be able to set human goals shared by
Towards a Concept of Meta-game
51
the largest fraction of people, and to achieve them by using knowledge and
technology, in the public and general interest. Therefore, the main challenge
for the manufacturing industry in the next 20 years is not competition between
the richest areas of the world for control, but its contribution to the sustainable
development of planet earth, and the needs of around 8 billion people.
ESPRIT of the EC, the Society of Manufacturing Engineers of the US, and
IMS (Intelligent Manufacturing System) of Japan are concurrently developing
human-centered manufacturing systems. However, the various worldwide
practices in shaping manufacturing systems and the generally weak attempts to
follow anthropocentric orientations in manufacturing seem to be the major
hindrances for the realization of the objectives (see, e.g., Japan Electronics
Industry Development Association 1991).
ATKearney (1988) has studied the issues and implications of the next 10
years for the Society of Manufacturing Engineers. Manufacturing planners
should cover a wide variety of tasks and activities. Since no one individual can
be omnipotent, manufacturing planning teams must be made up of strategic
planners, systems integrators, and technical specialists. Each of these roles
requires a different balance of skills. All players must understand the process
of global problem solving, which requires sustained effort over a period of
time, and a catalytic coordination team which is ultimately concerned with the
process.
Although many organizations are trying to adapt themselves to the changing
world, uncertainties and contradictions remain. Specialization and organizational segmentation hinder an integrated approach to the development of more
human production systems. For example:
Anthropocentric production systems offer an interesting avenue to
enhance competitiveness of industry in Europe. They are also compatible
with the social values of Europe. In spite of these advantages, the
development of anthropocentric production systems is slow and uneven.
Structural rigidities enhance development along traditional lines and
hinder promising innovations. In order to support constructive breakthroughs, systematic knowledge has to be developed that can be easily
adjusted to different environments. Such a type of knowledge can only be
developed within an institutionalized and permanent setting (Lehner
1991).
Planners are confronted with nothing less' than a sweeping cultural change.
During times of crisis, great leaders have also emerged. However, we now
need managers with a very different leadership style, a style which has not
been systematized and is still not taught in engineering or business schools.
The major challenge for manufacturing industries will not be the competition
between rich countries, but the contribution they have to make to the sustainable development of the planet. To find this creative direction, the metagame players must learn how to analyze the interaction of complex obstacles.
They will become the catalytic forerunners of great leaders.
52
Shibata et al.
Usually, there is a gap between objectives and realistically possible actions.
A new strategy is a bridge over this gap. According to Petrella (1989), what
firms need is better human organization, and integration between technical,
human, and organizational elements. This calls for a qualitative jump in the
understanding of how humans interact with technology and, above all, in the
design of increasingly complex techno-organizational systems. This will enable
the setting up of human goals shared by the largest proportion of people
throughout the world.
How can the new objectives of world manufacturing industries be attained?
It is not only by making a good plan, or by establishing a new institution, but
also by mobilizing existing organizations and motivating people.
Pascale (1978) found that a different approach is effective in uncertain and
complex situations. Generally speaking, whereas Westerners regard ambiguity
as a symptom of organizational ills, the notion of ambiguity is normal in
Japanese business and it helps Japanese managers to justify their practice of
making tentative decisions or no decisions. In their estimation, the solution
always involves groups of persons at different levels with different mandates.
The distribution of power is such that they lack full control. Perhaps these
circumstances have made well-structured games of little benefit in Japan, but
will render ill-structured meta-games of greater service, not only for the
Japanese, but also for Westerners in a future where uncertainty and complexity
are likely to prevail.
A Conceptual Framework SINPL
It is extremely difficult to playa meta-game without predetermined rules. The
difficulty could be alleviated to some extent by preparing a conceptual framework (meta-rule) which consists of a planning process (meta-process model), a
problem structure (meta-problem model), and a team structure (meta-role
model) (see, e.g., Abt 1970, Duke 1974, Arai 1990, Ozbekahn 1971). One
realization of these features is SINPL.
A special feature of SINPL is that it does not start from a given problem
but from a desirable future norm, from which the name SINPL (SImplified
Normative PLanning method) is derived. The game contains five steps,. as
follows (Fig. 1):
1. Forecasting desirable future (process) and vision scenario (structure)
2.
3.
4.
5.
Insight of contradictions (process) and problem structure (structure)
New idea proposal (process) and normative objectives (structure)
Strategic planning (process) and strategic patterns (structure)
Action proposal (process) and launching tactics (structure)
The chief advantage in using meta-games like SINPL is that they provide a
mode of experimentation with alternative strategies and tactics in a constantly
changing environment. The fluid nature of a meta-game approximates the
uncertainties encountered in a real situation. The artificially controlled contexts
Towards a Concept of Meta-game
53
(1) Forecasting
Future §.cenario
(5) !:.aunching
(4) Strategic
Tactics
.,Elanning
(3) !:formative
Objectives
Fig. 1. Planning process model of SINPL
which the conceptual framework imposes has built into it a certain relationship
between the decisions made by some of the players and the responses of other
stakeholders. These relationships are initially unknown to the players and are
only revealed as the meta-game proceeds. So the outcome of a particular
decision or strategy has immediate effects, thereby providing data for analyzing
and evaluating the selected course of action, with neither the time lag nor the
potentially irreversible consequences of a decision in the real world.
Forecasting a Future Scenario (Scenario: S)
The purpose of this step is for participants to share a common future scenario.
Teams brainstorm, which reveals the hidden thinking of the participants.
The session leader, in collaboration with the participants, classifies and
systematizes the idea cards. In one run, participants produced an attractive
view of the future: multinationalization of the manufacturing company,
emphasis on systems integration, diversification of business, humanization of
the company, improvement of welfare facilities, longer paid vacation and
overseas travel, new factories in provincial districts, and one computer terminal
for each employee.
Insight into Contradictions (Insight: I)
An underlying contradiction is a set of obstacles held together by a common
underlying factor. Obstacles are solid, real factors that actually exist and
indicate contradictions. This was the time to examine the real situation. It
was very painful, but it was the key to a creative approach to the future.
Participants used their intuition to cluster related obstacles as follows: obstacles
to communication within the company, lack of employee responsibility, sense
of urgency, competition in the market, ambiguity in customer specification,
ambiguity in company vision, and inadequate employee education and training.
Normative Objectives (Norm: N)
New idea proposals point to major new directions which will effectively break
through the contradictions. Proposals should be unique and creative, and not
simply improvements on existing programs and procedures. Also, proposals
54
Shibata et al.
are independent from each other and are not sequential steps. Proposals
require fresh, innovative thinking. The workshop resulted in the following
recommendations: shift national government policy, reorganize industrial
structure, improve school and in-company education, instigate organizational
reform, re-educate top management, recruit top level people, and set up a
company-wide coordination center.
Strategic Plan (Plan: P)
There was a gap between the objectives and the realistically possible actions.
Based on brainstorming, the session leader classified and systematized the
cards and made a strategic plan to bridge this gap as follows: organize a new
informal network of concerned engineers, organize a new trade association,
assign a training manager, support meta-game participation in the company,
use outside consultants, and distribute suggestion boxes.
Launching Tactics (Launch: L)
At the last session of the SINPL workshop, the participants created the steps
necessary to implement the first 3 months. They answered specific questions
focusing on the their own actions rather than others'. Some of the commitments were: decide company policy at the board meeting and publicize it to all
employees, have a periodical meeting between employers and employees,
have company-wide SINPL workshops, consult with headhunting companies,
conduct an opinion survey covering all employees, and start human relations
education.
Concluding Remarks
We feel that SINPL as a meta-game is an insightful conceptualization of a
strategic planning process. It highlights critical issues and provides a guideline
for developing creative strategies where diverse organizations and individuals
interact. It further suggests group processes and agenda formats which guide
each step of strategic planning. From a number of applications of SINPL, the
authors are convinced of its practicality and power, but also convinced that
considerable training is required to (1) internalize cognitively the planning
process as a discrete series of workable steps, (2) integrate diverse participants
and idea cards in each step, and (3) transfer and apply the findings to their
daily problems.
In addition, our experience suggests that timely support from an outside
network of creative catalytic consultants is indispensable to sustain such a
massive coordination drive over a long period of time (for further discussion,
see, e.g., Friedman 1987, McCarthy 1984, Satou 1986, Shibata 1984, Takatsu
1986).
Towards a Concept of Meta-game
55
References
Abt CC (1970) Serious games. Viking, New York
Arai K (1990) "SIMPLE" as a Policy Formation Exercise (in Japanese). Proceedings of
the 2nd JASAG Meeting. Japanese Association of Simulation and Gaming, Tokyo
ATKearney (1988) Countdown to the future: The manufacturing engineer in the 21st
Century. Society of Manufacturing Engineers, New York
Chadwick RW (1990) Global modeling for global responsibility (in Japanese). Simulation and Gaming 1(1):45-49
Cooley M (1988) European competitiveness in the 21st Century. Commission of the
European Communities, Strasbourg
Drucker PF (1981) Behind Japan's success. Harvard Business Review 59(1):83-90
Duke RD (1974) Gaming: The future's language. Sage, Beverly Hills
Friedman J (1987) Planning in the public domain-From knowledge to action. Princeton
University Press, Princeton
Japan Electronics Industry Development Association (1991) Study Report on the New
Factory System (in Japanese). Japan Electronics Industry Development Association,
Tokyo
Lehner F (1991) The development of anthropocentric production systems in Europe:
Challenges to science and technology. In: Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Science and Technology Policy Research organized by the Science and
Technology Agency of Japan, Jan 24-26, Kanagawa, Japan
McCarthy T (1984) The critical theory of Juergen Habermas. Polity Press, Cambridge
Mushakoji K (1990) The study of global problems: A new challenge for simulation
modeling (in Japanese). Simulation and Gaming 1(1):2-6
Ozbekhan H (1971) Planning and human action. In: Weiss PA (ed) Hierarchically
organized systems in theory and practice. Hafner, New York
Pascale RT (1978) Zen and the art of management. Harvard Business Review 56(2):
153-162
Petrella R (1989) Competitiveness for what? In: Cooley M (ed) European competitiveness in the 21st Century. Commission of the European Communities, Strasbourg
Puri T, Bhide A (1981) The crucial weaknesses of Japan. Wall Street Journal, June 8
Satou Y (1986) From Weber to Habermas-A horizon of association (in Japanese).
Sekai Shoin, Tokyo
Shibata Y (1984) Toward a policy guidance system for complex innovation. In: Eto H,
Matsui K (eds) R&D management systems in Japanese industy. North-Holland,
Amsterdam
Takatsu S (1986) Experimental study of design factors for MISIDSS (in Japanese).
Senshu University Business Review 41:261-326
Yusaku Shibata has been hooked on complex problem solving for more than
30 years, mainly as an engineering-manager with Hitachi. Now, he is trying
to apply his lifelong experience to global problems, such as future generation manufacturing systems planning in developed countries and sustainable regional development planning in developing countries. He is a
member of the Operations Research Society of Japan and the Japanese
Society of Organizational Science.
Hirofumi Kurihara is a member of the Operations Research Society of
Japan, in which he is an active member of a study team for organizational
56
Shibata et al.
intelligence. His special interest is the application of psychology to
organizational intelligence.
Shinzo Takatsu, Dr. of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, is
Professor of Systems Analysis in the Department of Business Administration, Senshu University. His current interests are general systems theory
and organizations theory. He is a member of the Operations Research
Society of Japan and the Japan Industrial Management Association.
Software to Communicate Global Models
Kenneth L. Simons! and Peter 1. Poole2
Abstract. Global simulation models can be powerful tools (1) to develop academics'
knowledge of the global socio-politico-environmental world and (2) to analyze possible
policies. However, they require considerable knowledge about their workings and the
types of questions they are designed to answer before one can use them. Hence it is
useful for communication among academics, analysis, and education in schools and
universities to develop descriptions of the models and accessible computerized versions
of the models. This paper presents new tools for an interactive, adaptive, and userfriendly genre for presenting and using complex simulation models. This way to communicate simulation models has hitherto not been possible nor emphasized. The
software should not only include the models, but also document them and guide people
through a learning process. These issues apply to all kinds of simulation modeling, but
illustrations in this paper come from global social and environmental models.
Key words. computer interfaces; education; environmental models; environmental
policy; global models; simulation/gaming
Traditionally, global modelers have spent most of their effort building and
analyzing global models, and relatively little effort documenting those models
and making them accessible to others. This approach has been appropriate for
two reasons. First, the process of modeling has been (and is) time consuming
and, given their limited resources, researchers have rarely been able to spend
the time to make polished documents and computer applications that communicate the models. Second, computer hardware and software have lacked
abilities (a) to integrate building and documenting models and (b) to create
easy-to-use versions of models without intensive work by professional programmers. These difficulties have caused poor communication of global
models. As part of a project to develop educational software based on classic
1 Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh,
PA 15213-3890, US; phones 412-268-6851 (w), 412-361-1447 (h); facsimile 412-268-6938;
e-mail ks3y+ @ andrew.cmu.edu
2 Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77
Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, US
57
58
Simons and Poole
global models, we are addressing the second difficulty, the need for an easy
way to make models accessible to others (researchers, students, the public,
policy makers). If global models are to playa role in global policy, they should
ideally take a form which policy makers can understand and explore to the
depth that- they feel is necessary, not the form of enigmatic entities on inaccessible mainframe computers. If global models are to advance research, it
will help to distribute those models in forms which other researchers can easily
access and which allow them to question and modify the models as they see fit.
Greater openness of model software enhances a model's replicability, transforming the software from computerized narratives into scientific, empirical
tools. This paper addresses the second problem, the need for methods to
develop easy-to-use software that conveys understandings obtainable from.
simulation models. Methods to integrate model building and model documentation are not addressed in this paper.
The Models in Our Project
For our project, we chose four classic models of global environment and
society. The models are:
1. Watson and Lovelock's (1983) DAISYWORLD model that illustrates the
Gaia hypothesis
2. A simple radiative-convective model of the greenhouse effect, paired with
an energy balance model
3. Forrester's (1973) WORLD DYNAMICS model of population, economic
consumption, and natural resource interactions
4. Edmonds and Reilly's IEA/ORAU LONG-TERM GLOBAL ENERGYCO 2 MODEL (hereafter ENERGY-C0 2 MODEL) of energy supply and
demand over the next century (1983).
These models span three intellectual perspectives about Earth:
1. DAISYWORLD represents the Earth as a biosphere that modulates
physical conditions for life.
2. The one-dimensional climate model of the greenhouse effect represents the
world as a geosphere composed of physical-chemical cycles.
3. WORLD DYNAMICS and the ENERGY-C02 MODEL represent the
world as a social system in which human behavior determines global
phenomena.
The ranges of subject matter and of modeling methods spanned by the project
help ensure that the techniques developed in the project are applicable to all
sorts of global models. In addition, this selection of famous models allows
multidisciplinary teaching about earth systems. In the literature (e.g., Roberts
1978, Alker 1985) they are portrayed as classic models, but most students and
researchers have had the chance to read only critical commentary or reviews of
them. The fact that knowledge of these models comes from secondary sources
Software to Communicate Global Models
59
(caused by the lack of accessible original models) can be likened to the
availability of Shakespearean plays only in summary form. These classic
computer models are worthy of being kept in libraries, just as other media
(music recordings and films) are regularly archived.
At this time, we have completed the GAIA THEORY AND DAISYWORLD (hereafter DAISYWORLD), and the energy-balance model and
WORLD DYNAMICS are in progress. A version of DAISYWORLD has
been translated into Portuguese, for demonstration in Brazil. The Appendix
compares our software with other earth-systems software.
Components of the Software
Depending upon its purpose, the software may need any or all of the components shown in Table 1. For details on how to create these components, see
Simons K.L. (1991) Software construction for simulation models: A handbook
for simulation model software in HyperCard (unpublished material, available
from the author).
Program Information
Ideally, how to use the program should be obvious to the user from looking at
the computer screen. Screens should be carefully designed to guide a user's
attention as desired. Introductory information, help buttons or menus and a
paper booklet can provide additional information as necessary.
Model Information: Documentation
In order to be straightforward about the assumptions of a simulation model, we
believe that the model should be documented in any program that uses it
(Fig. 1). Most current simulation programs do not provide such documentation. Putting these diagrams and equations on the computer ensures that
information about the model will always be available when someone uses the
model, and it encourages rather than discourages exploration of the model's
Table 1. Components of the software
Program information Model information
Cover illustration
(optional)
Summary report
(optional)
How to use the
software
Credits
Accompanying
booklet (optional)
Introduction
Documentation of
model
Contextual
information
Demonstrations
Source code
Model use
Education
Simulation start/
stop
Views of the
results
Ways to modify
the simulation
Structured exercises
Captivating activities
Reports for the user on
what was learned
Rewards for progress
60
Simons and Poole
assumptions. Similarly, the software can provide reasons why the model was
built, a history of the modeling project, criticisms and answers to them, a
bibliography, data that support the model or are used in it, and any other
information relevant to the model. Inclusion of source code or files from
modeling programs allows other researchers to modify models as they wish and
encourages academic debate.
Model Information: User Introduction
Most users will also need a basic introduction to the model: what it is about,
why it was built, what are its parts, and what conclusions can be drawn from it.
This information is sometimes conveyed in separate books and articles, but it is
preferable to make it available again on the computer, where people who use
the model can always find it. The introduction could be a reader with textual
information and illustrations, it could be animated demonstrations, or it could
be a guided series of exercises using the simulation.
Model Use
During the simulation, the user usually takes on some role. For example, with
a global environmental model, the user might act as a Special Assistant for
the Global Environment to the UN Secretary General. In this case, the goal
might be to determine environmental policies that are effective and politically
±
~
Planetary
•
Temperature ~+
~
~
( 0) 0
Growlh
CD:~)
\
~
Solar
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:,·;~
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- .. Are~
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See
Detailed
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Fig. 1. Model documentation
Software to Communicate Global Models
61
feasible, and the model would be used to analyze the effects of different
policies.
Model use can be either active or passive. In active use, the user makes
decisions during the simulation. In passive use, the user makes decisions before
the simulation starts, then watches their consequences (Fig. 2). Active use of a
model is often exciting, which helps keep users' attention. Passive use can be
more understandable: people make one set of decisions and they get back one
set of results.
A combination of traditional graph displays, customized animation, and
multimedia can benefit educational software. For example, EARTHQUEST,
SIMCITY, and SIMEARTH make good use of the color, sound, and animation capabilities of personal computers. Animation is especially well suited
for active model use, but traditional graphs and charts should be available too.
For example, a world simulation might display a picture of the globe, with
pictures of people, factories, and food indicating levels of population, capital
investment, and food harvests in different regions of the world. Traditional
graphs of, say, population over time, and pie charts of population in different
continents, provide information in a form that is valuable but not easily
accessible from the animated display.
Education
To communicate the models for education, we use these approaches:
(
em~
Start ) ( Print )( Help)
..,.,.,.""""""""""""'" (Set up Computation)
Set up Model Tests )
(
#
of Daisy Species
Daisy Albedos
ley
~g
7
6
a
10
D
Solar Luminosity Cloud species
® normal species
Oconstant
cloud species
® i ncreasi ng
both types
decreasing
o
o
o
Fig. 2. Model use
1.6
62
Simons and Poole
1. General descriptions using text; these are little different from a paper,
sometimes more difficult to use than a text book, but ensure that the
information is available with the model.
2. Series of diagrams that act like overlays, beginning with simple diagrams
and progressing to complex diagrams; this helps explain the complex structure of models and important feedback loops. The computer wins over
books or blackboard presentations in displaying diagrams this way.
3. Occasional prompts and queries with answers, such as one might find in
good educational text books.
4. Exercises with questions and answers that require using the model, such as
one would find in a text book.
5. Ability to translate the software into other languages; translation will also
become easTer with the development of an industry-standard international
character set.
The packages are designed so that they can be adapted both by the user
and by the instructor. User-friendly programming environments, such as
HYPERCARD and STELLA II, ensure this flexibility.
Audience and Purpose
We have developed a flexible and adaptable interface that allows the software
to be tailored for particular audiences. We have also created software to fit the
needs of multiple audiences. Within our project, using global models of earth
systems, we identify four possible audiences.
Researchers can examine assumptions and consequences of a model, modify
the model for further testing, and incorporate ideas from the model into their
own work. University students might have similar wishes, and professors may
want exercises to use for students in classes. Students who are interested in
actual modeling can adapt the software, and thus use these packages as a
springboard to develop their own models. For historians and sociologists who
explore the history and practice of simulation modeling, the models are
adaptable, user-friendly, and publicly archived. Policy makers want summaries
of the models' implications and of the scientists' estimations of their validity.
Our simulation software can provide this information in a form that is succinct
yet complete.
Open and accessible models enable scholars to explore what the Forrestertype models meant and why they proliferated during the 1970s. Software about
the DAISY WORLD model helps one understand Lovelock's insistence that
the concept of a living planet deserves being called a theory, that is Gaia
Theory, and not just a hypothesis. Software about the ENERGY-C0 2
MODEL helps one understand why it became the dominant energy and greenhouse gas emissions model in the mid- and late-1980s. For sociologists who are
interested in conceptual models of social structures, an open computer software environment like this allows them to probe theories of complexity and to
Software to Communicate Global Models
63
develop empiricaIIy testable computer representations of social systems
(Luhmann 1988, Maturana 1980).
Testing Effectiveness
Testing the software informally during and after development is important in
order to find out what users learn. Formal testing after development can
rigorously investigate what people learn, but it is expensive in time and money.
Tests of whether a user learns particular concepts, given before and after use of
the software, are simplest. Alternatively, the cognitive mapping method used
by Bostrum et ai. (in press) investigates what concepts people hold and how
they think about those concepts, before and after use of training materials.
Verbal protocol analysis (Ericcson and Simon 1980, Newell and Simon 1972)
can be used to understand how users think about particular parts of the
software and to see whether they understand and learn as intended.
Summary
This paper presents a genre of open and flexible software that describes and
aIIows use of global models. Specific software has been developed for teaching
global environmental systems from a multidisciplinary perspective. Details of
the tools needed for software development are available from the authors
(Simons 1991, Software construction for simulation models: A handbook for
simulation model software in HyperCard, unpublished material).
Acknowledgments
This project began at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1989.
Thanks to the following programs and departments for their financial support:
Departments of Civil Engineering, Political Science, and Urban Studies and
Planning; School of Engineering; Undergraduate Research Opportunities
Program; Center for Global Change and the Houghton Fund. Thanks for
advice and assistance especiaIIy to Prof. Joseph Ferreira and Dr. Marvin
MiIIer. At Carnegie Mellon University, thanks for advice and assistance
especiaIIy to Prof. Baruch Fischhoff and Dr. Ann Bostrum. We are also
grateful for the hospitality and support of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan. For work done by Kenneth Simons beginning
fall 1990: This material is based upon work supported under a National Science
Foundation Graduate Fellowship. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or
recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do
not necessari.ly reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
64
Simons and Poole
References
Alker HR (1985) Global modeling alternatives: The first twenty years. In: Ward MD
(ed) Theories, models, and simulations in international relations: Essays in honor of
Harold Guetzkow. Westview, Boulder
Bostrum A, Fischhoff B, Morgan G (in press) Characterizing mental models of
hazardous processes: A methodology and application to radon. Journal of Social
Issues
EARTHQUEST. Earthquest Inc. (1990) Earthquest Inc., Palo Alto (125 University
Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94301, USA)
Edmonds J, Reilly J (1983) A long-term global energy-economic model of carbon
dioxide release from fossil fuel use. Energy Economics 5(2):74-88
Ericcson KA, Simon HA (1980) Verbal reports as data. Psychological Review
87(3):215-251
Forrester JW (1973) World dynamics, 2nd edn. Productivity Press, Cambridge,
Massachusetts (Wright-Allen Press, 1971)
GAIA THEORY AND DAISYWORLD: A PLANETARY LIFE-SUSTAINING
SYSTEM. Simons KL, Poole PJ, Bell M, Rathbun K, Trimble E, Young A (1991)
Simons KL, Pittsburgh (Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890, USA)
HYPERCARD version 2.1. Claris (1991) Claris, Santa Clara (Box 526, Santa Clara,
CA 95052, USA)
IEA/ORAU LONG-TERM GLOBAL ENERGY-C02 MODEL: PERSONAL
COMPUTER VERSION A84PC. Edmonds J, Reilly J (1986) Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Oak Ridge (Carbon Dioxide Analysis Information Center, Oak Ridge"
National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA)
Luhmann N (1988) Tautology and paradox in the self-descriptions of modern society.
Sociological Theory 6 (Spring):21-37
Maturana HR (1980) Autopoiesis: Reproduction, heredity, and evolution. In: Zeleny M
(ed) Autopoiesis, dissipative structures, and spontaneous social orders, AAAS
selected symposium 55. Westview, Boulder
Newell A, Simon HA (1972) Human problem solving. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs
Roberts PC (1978) Modeling large systems: Limits to growth revisited. Taylor and
Francis, London
SIMCITY. Maxis (1989) Maxis, Orinda (2 Theatre Square, Suite 230, Orinda, CA
94563-3041, USA)
SIMEARTH. Maxis (1990) Maxis, Orinda (2 Theatre Square, Suite 230, Orinda, CA
94563-3041, USA)
STELLA II. High Performance Systems (1990) High Performance Systems, Hanover
(Suite 300, 45 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755, USA)
Watson AJ, Lovelock JE (1983) Biological homeostasis of the global environment: The
parable of Daisyworld. Tellus 35B:284-289
Kenneth Simons researches and teaches about dynamic models of social
systems and the use of models for corporate and government policy. He has
developed, written about, and created tools for software which uses both
managerial and global simulations. When an undergraduate at MIT, he
worked for 4 years with its System Dynamics Group. He is a doctoral
student and a National Science Fellow at Carnegie Mellon University.
Software to Communicate Global Models
65
Peter Poole is completing a doctorate on advanced industrial societies and
the management of international environmental problems. His work in
political science draws on his previous studies in industrial engineering and
civil engineering, and field research at the Center for Global Environmental
Research of the Japanese Environment Agency.
Appendix
Other Earth-Systems Software
Several other software packages can be used to teach about earth systems. These
include the following:
1. Global Data. Data on world issues, collected by the UN, the World Bank and groups
like the World Resources Institute have been made available for microcomputers
from the World Game Institute in Philadelphia.
2. Games. SIMEARTH, created in collaboration with James Lovelock, has been
translated into Japanese by Imagineer Co., in Tokyo. EARTHQUEST integrates
historical and geographical information with instruction about local and global
environmental problems.
3. Educational software. This category stresses learning and teaching, not gaming just
for fun. At an introductory level, the free GLOBAL WARMING STACK prepared
by Apple is quite good, though it is oriented for junior high school or high school
American children. GLOBAL RECALL, produced by the World Game Institute,
presents global data in captivating manner.
4. Adaptable educational software. Our project falls in this category.
Modeling Organizations with Visual Agents
Kenneth A. Griggsl
Abstract. This paper describes a Smalltalk-80-based prototype system that uses icons to
model an organization. Users communicate complex goals to the system, such as
meeting scheduling, by manipulating the icons. Underlying the icons is an elaborate set
of data and knowledge structures. The icons are objects that appear to be user 'agents'
in the sense that they are seen to contain data and behavior needed to complete the
user's goal. The system employs object-oriented programming techniques, expert
systems, and other AI techniques.
Key words. agents; object-oriented programming; organizational modeling; organizational simulation; Smalltalk
The value of visual models in interface design is well established scientifically
and commercially. The commercial successes of iconic interfaces found in
games and other interactive simulations show that, at least for certain classes of
problems, iconic representations have much merit.
Visual interface techniques are designed to offload much of the cognitive
effort from the user to the system. The ideal interface is transparent to the
user-it is an extension of the user's reality and needs no added learning.
Sophistication is hidden from the user and seemingly trivial user acts are
translated into complex system behavior. These developments lead to the
question "can a simulation using graphical objects model a complex phenomenon such as an organization?" This paper describes a Smalltalk-80-based
working prototype system that uses iconic objects and agencies to achieve this
end.
1 Decision Science Department, 2404 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822; phone (808)9567494; facsimile (808)956-3261; e-mail griggs@uhccvx.uhcc.hawaii.edu
66
Modeling Organizations with Visual Agents
67
Objects
The notion of objects and object-oriented programming originated with the
Simula language (Birtwistel 1973) and was further developed via the creation
of the Smalltalk language at the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (Goldberg
and Robson 1983, Goldberg 1984). An object is a packet of information and
descriptions of its manipulation; a message is a description of an object's
manipulations (Goldberg and Robson 1983). Objects are instances of classes
which are themselves part of a class hierarchy. The class hierarchy is an
inheritance path for data and behavior. An icon is a graphical object.
Agents and Agencies
Agents provide behavior and data useful in completing a user's goal. An agent
has been defined as a "'soft robot' living and doing business within the
computer's world" (Kay 1984). Agents act for users and may encapsulate
knowledge beyond the user's own. An agent is an object, sometimes represented by an icon which is programmed to use, communicate, and manipulate other objects to complete a complex task. The agent icon may be
programmed by a system developer or by the user. When object environments
contain multiple, intercommunicating agents, they are termed agencies.
The Visual Agent Approach
The concept of a visual agency is borrowed from computer games such as the
legendary PINBALL CONSTRUCTION SET, where users can construct a
pinball game from a variety of components represented as icons-plungers,
flippers, and so on. The visual agent approach is a kind of "organization
construction set" that includes the user as part of the construction. The purpose of the approach is to create an iconic environment in which a user can
perform complex, organization-wide tasks with minimal training and effort.
Figure 1 is an example of a hierarchical object classification scheme used to
create an object environment for an organization. The classification scheme is
also a Smalltalk-80 class hierarchy. Each icon is an independent agent in the
sense that specific data and behavior related to each function is encapsulated
within the data and knowledge structure linked to the icon. An agent may be
left out of a process and yet a goal may be completed through the efforts of
other agents. Variations on this theme have been proposed [Minsky 1985,
Griggs (1989) GDI (Goal Directed Interface): An intelligent, iconic, objectoriented interface for office systems. University of Arizona, Tucson. Unpublished work].
Specifically, the visual agent approach contains several distinct aspects. The
approach (1) postulates a simple model of a user environment having persons,
things, and processes to form an agency; (2) represents knowledge in the
68
Griggs
Los Angeles, Western
Structures _ _ Buildings
<'" Regional Marketing
CommunicatioI1- ArcNe~
.
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Chicago
Calfornia Test
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User
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Clark Grininger
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~
Tim Hill
Michelle Mark
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Fig. 1. An organizational class hierarchy
environment through rules, frames and scripts, and object-oriented programming techniques; (3) uses an iconic representation; (4) requires that the user's
own person icon be present for all interactions so that actions appear to happen
in a user-controllable context (the user's icon is, literally, in the interface); (5)
provides a selection window through which the user communicates the goal by
grouping relevant icons; (6) uses a rule-based expert system to examine an
icon configuration and, through its knowledge, derives a user goal (despite
ambiguous or faulty icon placements); and (7) tries to complete the user goal
through the use of scripts and multiple expert systems.
The user's personal icon is needed since (1) the user is a necessary part of
the goal completion process and is the principal actor within it, (2) engagement
is enhanced when the user is visually represented, (3) system activities are
viewed from the user's perspective and are represented as such, and (4) data
and knowledge about the user and problem domain are linked to their visual
representation.
Modeling Organizations with Visual Agents
69
An Example of a Visual Agency-A Scenario
Clark Grininger is a marketing executive for a consumer products company
headquartered in Chicago. The team consists of Clark Grininger (Assistant
Director, Marketing), Tim Hill (Director, Market Analysis), and Michelle
Mark (Analyst, Systems Support) . Joe Kotowski, an accounting student intern,
is not a team member, but will act as a support person for the project. Much of
the communication for the project will be via an internal, corporate-wide
network (Arcnet) which handles electronic mail and database queries. A
variety of geographically dispersed databases will be consulted and updated
during the project. Much of the project work will consist of extracting data
r
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:
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70
Griggs
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Michelle Mark
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Button
Tim Hill
The User 's
Icon
The Selection
Window
Fig. 3. Beginning the meeting scheduling process by moving the appropriate agents into
the selection window
from a variety of remote databases, communicating with project team members
via electronic mail, scheduling meetings, and creating a variety of status
reports. Figure 2 is a mapping of the framework of Fig. 1 to a set of icons.
The user is represented in the classification scheme and is both a user and a
project member. User data and behavior might include, for example, the user's
meeting location preference, appointment calendar, project membership and
so on-in short, anything of use in the application environment.
This hypothetical agency represents a subset of the complete user view of the
organization. The environment consists of an iconic representation of persons
(Michelle Mark, Joe Kotowski, Clark Grininger, Tim Hill), things (Chicago
Headquarters Office, Los Angeles Western Region Marketing Office, the
Modeling Organizations with Visual Agents
71
user's Planning Calendar), and processes (Send Mail, Get Data, Schedule
Meeting) representing a particular agency environment. The user (Clark
Grininger) is both a user and a member of a project team and thus inherits
properties of both.
Figure 3 depicts a screen in which the user has moved two person icons
(Michelle Mark, Tim Hill) and a process icon (Schedule Meeting) into the
selection window. An expert system containing knowledge about icon configurations attempts to determine a user goal.
Conclusions reached by the expert system are fed back to the user in the
form of verification prompts having a list containing one or more possible goals
ranked by certainty. In the example, the user wants to schedule a meeting with
Michelle Mark and Tim Hill. Based on the type of icons in the selection screen,
the Schedule a Meeting goal has the highest likelihood of being the goal and is
placed at the top of the list. Accordingly, Send Mail is placed in second
position. The user then picks the proper goal from the list and the process is
carried forward. This technique provides a degree of user forgiveness. Figure 4
shows the sequence of events in the process.
An initial evaluation of the icon configuration is needed since an actual
organization model world might have hundreds of icons. In such an environment, the number of combinations of icons quickly becomes explosive and
unmanageable. For example, assuming an average configuration to be four
icons out of a possible 30, the number of potential icon configurations is
roughly 27,405.
The Current Prototype System
Currently, the prototype system consists of a small model world with three
persons, two processes (send mail, schedule meeting), and two things (a
building, a planning calendar). Using several sets of rules, the system successfully discriminates between user goals, intelligently schedules meetings (suggests meeting times and places, resolves conflicts), and automatically sets
up e-mail protocols between users. The primary motivation for creating the
prototype was to explore the feasibility of larger simulations involving complex
goals and objects. Additional functionality will be added to the system and an
empirical test of the validity of the concept is planned.
Summary
This paper reports on a prototype iconic environment, created in Smalltalk-80,
that is a simulation of an organization. The simulation employs a set of icons
(including the user) that represent organizational entities and uses rule, script,
and frame-based knowledge structures to achieve complex user goals.
72
Griggs
Visual Agent
Interface
.......
Feedback &
Verification
P~81
[]
/'
0
~
/
An Icon
Configu ration
Icon Configuration
Evaluator
~
---7'
Icon Configuration
RuleBase
Confirmed User
Goal
Object Frames
Application Script
Application
Knowledge Bases
Completed or Failed
User Goal
Fig. 4. Event sequence in the visual agent approach
References
Birtwistel GO (1973) Simula begin. Auerbach, Philadelphia
Goldberg A (1984) Smalltalk-80: The interactive programming environment. AddisonWesley, Reading, MA
Goldberg A, Robson D (1983) Smalltalk-80: The language and its implementation.
Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA
Kay A (1984) Computer software. Sci Am 251(3):52-59
Minsky M (1985) The society of mind. Simon and Schuster, New York
PINBALL CONSTRUCTION SET. Budge B (1983) Electronic Arts, San Mateo (1820
Gateway Drive, San Mateo, CA 94404 USA)
Modeling Organizations with Visual Agents
73
Kenneth A. Griggs is an assistant professor in the Decision Science Department at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. His interests include all
aspects of object-oriented programming as well as the coupling of artificial
intelligence techniques with object environments.
Future Perspectives for Global Modeling
Hiroharu Seki1
Abstract. This paper explains the origin of simulation studies for global modeling, and
looks at three different types of simulation. It also examines the shift towards cultural
aspects of simulation studies. Finally, a new proposal is made for a research program to
develop an infrastructure of person-computer simulation.
Key words. all-computer simulation; cultural difference; gaming; global modeling;
intellectual social developmental genom; person-computer simulation; subjectiveobjective nexus; world order scenarios
I will begin by summarizing a short history of simulation research related to the
recent increased capabilities of personal computers, multidimensional real
network formation in the social system even in international fields, and the
salient aspects of transnational global problems which are interconnected with
each other. These problems are difficult to solve without alternative efforts at
transforming the previous antagonistic relations among nations into radically
different forms of intimate cooperation between these nations. This step would
surely mean developing future research programs for simulation and gaming in
the twenty-first century.
Origins of Simulation Studies for Global Modeling
The person-computer simulation study, originally devised by Harold Guetzkow,
was the result of efforts to integrate actor orientation to surrogate decision
makers of sovereign states with systems orientation to the traditional Westphalian International Relations.
Guetzkow himself tried to transform person-computer simulation to all
computer simulations. His efforts were partly influenced by Forrester's System
1 Faculty of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University, 56 Tojiin-Kita, Kita-ku,
Kyoto, 601 Japan; phone 075-465-1111; facsimile 075-465-1214
74
Future of Global Modeling
75
Dynamics which were successfully applied to the Club of Rome type research
for the early studies on The Limits of Growth.
GLOBUS was developed as an extension of this direction and was a research
program for computerizing global modeling through time-consuming data base
construction. However, GLOBUS was not able to forecast the recent drastic
change in European politics including German unification and the formation of
the EC. GLOBUS' failure to forecast international relations has resulted in a
decline of global modeling studies as illustrated at the ISA Convention held in
Vancouver, March 1991.
The post-cold war period and the post-gulf war period have raised significant
new issues for world order scenarios and their theories covered by the ordinary
description of international politics. It is urgent for us to develop global
modeling simulations and gaming studies for the exploration of world order
scenarios.
Three Types of Simulation in Comparison and Perspective
The comparison of all-computer simulation, gaming, and person-computer
simulation was attempted by Hayward Alker in the 1960s. However, this was
only a kind of pragmatic comparison; it was neither a syntactic nor semantic
comparison. Pragmatic comparison is mostly based upon the criterion of
computer methodology. Syntactic comparison is based primarily upon the
analytical contents of interrelationships among the parts of systems. Semantic
comparison should be based on epistemological and ontological issues. Alker
tried to compare the accuracy, repeatability, speed of calculation, degree of
freedom, and flexibility in three types of simulations. All-computer simulation
is extremely strong in the areas of accuracy, repeatability, and speed of calculation. However, it is clearly weak in the sense that it might very frequently
fall into the trap of analyzing fictitious systems. In this case, the computer will
only play games which have no relationship with reality. On the other hand,
gaming has strength in freedom and flexibility. It is weak in accuracy, repeatability, and speed of calculation, but this weakness is an inevitable characteristic of reality, and gaming could simulate this reality of weakness by its
fundamental similarity to the real world. Thus, the potentiality of personcomputer simulations could be achieved only if the strength of both types of
simulations could be successfully integrated.
Present developments in the uses of personal computers and computer
networks creates new possibilities. The dramatic development of computer
capabilities led to the availability of natural language processing in different
cultures of the world. Global modeling research programs using the method
of person-computer simulations could be started as a sincere effort of human
self-understanding, that is, such simulations could successfully become a mirror
of reality. It could also become a kind of intellectual social developmental
genom if we could compare it with a biological genom on global modeling
exercises.
76
Seki
The conditions for conducting this kind of research program by constructing
infrastructures of person-computer simulations based on global modeling are
being matured, given the present development of computers with network
formation. Within the complex network system of human brains, new types of
computer networking are being introduced in the form of transforming the
existing global social system. Using this computer network system to mirror the
real global system, our understanding of reality can be further developed, as
illustrated by the new creative definition of the intellectual social developmental genom. The global modeling research program using person-computer
simulations is surely revolutionary at the global level of identity formation and
new stages in the history of human intellectual development. The development
of the fifth generation computer was tried in order to approach the human
brain in a manner different from the ordinal type of high-speed, real-time
fourth generation computer. If such computers could be developed, the present
incompatibility with the human brain in person-computer interfacing would
become easier to resolve than in the previous stage of computer development.
Person-computer simulations which try to advance the self-awareness of the
global system to the next level of self-understanding should be conducted.
Culture-Based Differences of Simulation Philosophy
GLOBUS was not successful in achieving high validity in comparison with
European reality. Identifying the outcome through simple observation is easy.
Doing so using behavioral science methods is not. Thus, the reasons for
reviving gaming types of simulation have come to the forefront within this
context. Cultural comparison of the gaming environment can be considered in
light of its comparative relationship to three types of simulation. The gaming
type of simulation would provide opportunities for comparison of different
cultures via the human brain through learning or multi-cultural gaming runs.
Of course, the learning of different cultures by the human brain is generally
very difficult and it takes a lot of time even in the case of the human brain to
adapt to a new social context. The gaming method could easily simulate
cultural differences by the human brain through comparisons or multi-cultural
simulation runs even in the absence of learning by each brain. Harold Guetzkow
visited five continents after the 1980s. He was surprised by his observation of
how different ideas for designing various simulations co-existed with each other
in different cultures and thus he wrote a report based on his travel experience.
However, he did not explore the fundamental reasons why such differences
exist. What sort of influence on science and technology would be created in the
different cultural environments? Such questions will become salient in the case
of interface between gaming and computers. In the exercise of gaming practice,
cultural or even individual differences could be exposed. Such differences are
generally not recognized in models or in indicators, both of which are easily
computerized. Exchanged documents during gaming practice or autobiographies written by surrogate decision makers in the post-gaming practice
Future of Global Modeling
77
could be a source for exploring individual or cultural differences. Personcomputer simulations which tried to simulate tension reduction mostly in the
Asia Pacific region in the 1990s were conducted in the latter part of 1969. It
was more or less successful in forecasting the present situation of the Asia
Pacific in the sense of relative drop of American hegemony, turbulence of
politics in China and the Soviet Union, improvement of Sino-Soviet relations,
and Korean unification. Forecasting the 1990s through simple person-computer
simulations using the computer center of The University of Tokyo in 1969 was
far more successful than the extremely complicated GLOBUS which was
unable to forecast political changes in Europe within even short period. A
comparison of GLOBUS with our Asian Pacific Gaming raises the question of
issues of cultural differences as well as the three different forms of simulation.
Other types of gaming in the 1970s and 1980s in Japan were also successful
in forecasting Korean unification in the 90s or German unification before it
really developed. Have cultural differences influenced the outcome? Or has
the gaming type of exercise influenced the outcome? These are significant
questions that should be raised and answered.
Research Program for Person-Computer Simulation:
Three Perspectives
Person-computer simulations could become the most appropriate method of
scientific research of the three types of simulation. The background to this
situation is the radical transformation of social systems into the network-based
computerization of the present global society. Person-computer network is
internalized in the social system. How to see the social system as a whole
through the window of computer networks is related to the fundamental
reconsideration of the methodology of the scientific research. All computer
simulations tend to show a strong intellectual bias toward rejecting the human
factor even in the highest stage of development of contemporary social systems. The so-called fifth generation computer might revise this strong intellectual bias. But in what degree is such revision going to be realized? Gaming
seems to be a primitive type of simulation in the highest stage of development
of social systems. It is different from all computer simulations in the sense that
it reflects human factors, but the analysis of the gaming process and of the
outcomes of gaming is extremely difficult. Gaming is not appropriate for
the purpose of scientific inquiry compared with all-computer simulations on
the epistemological dimension. Exploring alternatives in the policy sciences
demands clear understanding of alternative causal relations. However, in
gaming methodology it is nearly impossible, except for the narrow case of
mathematical game theory.
In the case of person-computer simulation, the most significant question is
how it can revive the strengths of both types of simulations in order to rectify
their weaknesses. Once innovative research programs construct the kind of
78
Seki
infrastructure through which the above conditions could be satisfied, it will
surely become a pioneer type of "human frontier" research project. Here is
the first perspective for person-computer simulations. When the models for
internal understanding of total social systems are established as prototypes in a
multi-dimension human-computer-interface created by the exercise of personcomputer simulation, such models could be defined as the set of intellectual
social developmental genom analogically compared with the biological genom.
Of course, such prototypes have varieties of variations. And the variations
would be well illustrated by the combinations of different modules. We have
already experienced such possibilities in designing our person-computer
simulation for global modeling.
Hiroharv Seki is a professor and Chairman of the Institute of International Relations and Area Studies at Ritsumeikan University. He is also
the Executive Chairman of the Japan Council on International Affairs
and an Executive Member of the Organizing Committee of IPRA '92.
Behavioral/Social System Simulation
Charles M. Plummer, and David W. Hollarl
Abstract. The BehaviorallSocial System Simulation (B/SSS) is a computer-based simu-
lation providing capability to simulate relationships between and among individuals
and groups. The simulation is programmed in the object-oriented language SmalltalkN
and operates on a Macintosh llcx personal computer. The BISSS provides the user the
opportunity to apportion varied levels of resources among individuals and groups and
establish varied probabilities of individuals and group success, with flexibility for the
operator to change the rules and objectives governing the simulated behavioral/social
system to explore alternative possibilities.
Key words. BehaviorallSocial System Simulation (B/SSS); computer simulation; humancomputer interaction; object-oriented programming system (OOPS); SmalltalkN Mac;
social psychology; time perspectives
Social system simulations, as surrogate environments, can potentially provide
powerful tools. They may model cross-cultural experiences, transcend time by
providing future scenarios or recreating historical events, model interactions
in an ideal system which would otherwise be impossible to study, and demonstrate interactions in infrequent, distant, or dangerous situations under
controlled conditions.
Social systems consist of individuals with unique personalities pursuing
multiple individual goals, and are difficult to simulate. An object-oriented
computer language has advantages over previous approaches. It is based on
classes of objects, each having the potential of interacting with one another,
and it can thus be used to form a more natural representation of real social
systems.
The Behavioral/Social System Simulation (B/SSS) provides a user-friendly
simulation which could be used for research, evaluation, and instruction.
1 Simulation
Systems Laboratory, Rochester Institute of Technology, City Center 05588,
50 West Main Street, Rochester, New York 14614-1274, US; phone: 716-475-5292;
facsimile 716-475-5595
79
80
Plummer and Hollar
Social Systems and Simulation
A system could be seen as a group of individual entities or organizations in
interaction that serves a common purpose or function. Plummer (1989b)
defines a social system as ". . . an organized and structured individual or social
entity, comprised of individuals engaged in specific patterns of interaction, in a
structure that has boundaries and ongoing duration, which has developed to
achieve one or more specific goals or purposes."
A simulation of a social system would be a controlled, operating model of
some real-world social system imitating relationships between individuals and
groups. A desirable simulator would have the following characteristics: (1)
varied levels of resources and effort could be apportioned among individuals
and groups, (2) probabilities could be altered to produce different levels of
individual and group success, (3) the user would have flexibility to change both
the "rules" governing the system, and (4) the user could also change the
duration of the simulation.
Structure of the Social System Model
The underlying model for this simulation is based on a social interaction (noncomputer) simulation designed to model a social system (Plummer 1978). In
this study, simulation was used as an experimental treatment to study the
impact of the stressors "acceleration of change" and "information overload"
on the foreshortening of human temporal perspectives ("future shock").
Subjects (n = 179) were randomly assigned to high, medium, or low resource
conditions in a simulation, and various measures of time perspective were
administered following the experiment. Resources were represented by tokens,
and bonus points were awarded for acquiring tokens of the same color.
The simulation experiment directed individuals to trade with one another,
with a trade consisting of the exchange of tokens of unequal value between two
individuals. The prototype computer-based version of the B/SSS described
here is based upon these primary underlying structural characteristics.
Model Design Specifications and the User Interface
The simulation provides for modeling the following structural characteristics of
the interaction of individuals within a social system:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Primary purpose or goals of individuals and groups
Rules upon which the system functions
Alternative roles available to individuals
Alternative physical locations and rules governing movement and interaction
Behavioral/Social System Simulation
81
5. Information which pertains to the social system
6. Resources available to individuals and groups to influence desirable outcomes within the social system
An example of the model design specifications for the interface of the B/SSS
with the user appears in Fig. 1 (see also Plummer 1989a, 1990). The Operational Control component at the top center displays alternatives available
to the operator, to execute the functions of communication, command, and
control within the simulation. The Design System component at the upper lefthand center displays design options to the user. At the lower left of center
appears the Display Status component, which provides indicators of the status
of the simulation system at a selected time or phase. The center stage is
analogous to the stage of a theater. It provides the environmental context in
which all action occurs. At center right, lower right, and bottom locations
appear the individual, groups, and organizations that the user has created.
The simulation user creates individuals (Fig. 2) who have varied levels
of characteristics in each of six areas: intellectual, ethical/reflective, social!
CONTROL
(Menu Choices for
Operator: communications,
command, and control of
the simulation)
DESIGN SYSTEM
(Goals/Rules/
Resources/Constraints/
Parameters: options
available to design desired
individual/social system
characteristics)
Organization 001
STAGE
(The environmental
context in which action
occurs)
DISPLAY STATUS
(Measuremenll
Instrumentation: displays
status of simulated
environment, and entities
within ~-organizt/
groupflndividual-at a
selected time or phase)
Organization 002
Organization 003
Fig. 1. Behavioral/social system user interface
82
Plummer and Hollar
interpersonal, physical, financial, and creative/productive. These individuals
pursue strategies to achieve certain levels of goals in each of these six sectors.
Groups are defined as consisting of individuals of shared similarities in one or
more sectors, at the discretion of the simulation user. Individuals, groups, and
organizations interact in response to tasks specified by the user. Status display
can be used to indicate the status of both the task and the individuals, groups,
or organizations operating on the task at a given time or phase. The B/SSS has
been developed to run on a Macintosh Hcx in SmaHtalklV. The original model
of the simulation was a non-computer, social-interaction-based version, named
"Future Changing Society Simulation" (Plummer 1978).
Behavioral/Social System Simulation Version in
Smalltalk/V Mac
The B/SSS contains features that provide the user with more flexibility for
establishing alternative social systems. First is the capability to have five groups
or social classes with varied resource levels. From highest to lowest resource
levels, these groups are named the Yup, Hex, Rad, Serv, and Rax groups.
INTELLECTUAL
FINANCIAL
PHYSICAL
YUP
NAME:
SYMBOL:
~
EXAMPLE GROUPS OF INDIVIDUALS
I-EX
RAD
SERV
~
@
Fig. 2. Operationalization of sectors within one individual in behavioral/social system
simulator
Behavioral/Social System Simulation
83
Second is the capacity to modify the extent of interaction between groups, to
provide for modeling "open" or "closed" social systems, or for studying bias
and prejudice. A user can decide whether a group will try to avoid trading with
members of other groups and only seek to trade with other members of the
same class or whether they will seek to trade with members of any other group.
Third is the ability to change the strategy for token trading, Trading strategies
available to users include random or artificially intelligent trading decisions.
With the intelligent strategy, each entity seeks to make a trade which will yield
at least a minimal profit. The random trade strategy is not concerned with the
value of the token given or received. Together, these features provide for
representing some critical attributes of social systems in the real world.
Object-Oriented Approach to Modeling the Real World
Object-oriented programming offers a powerful, more natural approach to
real-world simulation than originated from an earlier simulation language
(Simula). In the traditional programming, paradigm procedures function on
and manipulate data structures. In contrast, object-oriented programming
simulates the way the real world works and therefore represents a better choice
for such a simulation. Smalltalk is an object-oriented language that offers an
excellent environment for simulation. Figure 3 shows the hierarchy of the
classes that were used for the Social System Simulator.
Real and Simulated Experiments
Comparisons were made between the SmalltalklV B/SSS simulation experiments and the experiments Plummer (1978) performed using the Future
Changing Society Simulation. Here there were 7-9 members from each of the
Object
/I~
Simulation
Social System
Yup
SimulationObject
Resource
I
/\
// 1\'"
Token
Social Entity
Hex
Rad
Serv
Rax
Fig. 3. Hierarchy of classes
ResourceTokens
84
Plummer and Hollar
three resource levels within four groups under predictable conditions, and four
similar groups under an unpredictable condition (n = 179). These simulations
lasted for 65 min. The SmalltalkN simulation prototype was operated using
three groups with varying parameter settings with seven members in each
group for a total of 84 entities during the experiment, with entities moving at a
step speed of five and experiments lasting 10 min of simulation time. Both
human and computer entities were started with comparable resource levels
(high = 150, medium = 100, low = 50). Table 1 presents a comparison of
the final resource levels of human subjects with computer-generated results,
disclosing very similar results.
A second simulation experiment was also run with differing parameter
settings using five resource levels. The groups started with the resource levels
illustrated in Table 2. In this experiment there were four entities in each group.
The step speed was again at the default of five and each simulation lasted
10 min. The resulting averages are presented in Table 3.
Table 1. Experimental results of three group simulation experiments
FCSS
BISSS
Computer results
Human results
High resources
Medium resources
Low resources
546.43
421.84
393.98
543.1
438
411.4
All groups
421.84
464.17
Table 2. Initial conditions of the five-group simulation experiment
A verage
Range
Yup High resources
Hex Up medium resources
Rad Medium resources
Serv Low-medium resources
Rax Low resources
240
130
89
69.5
52
205-300
115-155
80-105
60-75
45-60
All groups
116.1
45-300
Table 3. Experimental results of the five-group simulation experiment
Average
Range
Yup High resources
Hex Up medium resources
Rad Medium resources
Serv Low-medium resources
Rax Low resources
700
523.17
508.92
456.67
470.25
520-765
410-550
395-505
370-505
360-500
All groups
531.8
360-765
Behavioral/Social System Simulation
85
Desirable Future Enhancements
There are several useful features that could be added to the B/SSS to assist the
user and also provide more realism, such as adding more menu choices, adding
graphic and statistical reporting options, providing additional alternative
intelligent strategies for interaction, and more alternatives for resource allocation. With entities operationalized in all six dimensions, one could simulate
varied levels of financial resources and also have varied levels of attributes and
goals in intellectual, ethical, physical, and social/interpersonal dimensions.
Entities could then trade resources in one area for resources in another area.
Summary
The experimental comparison of simulated and real data from human subjects
showed that the B/SSS gave results similar to those produced by real people in
these preliminary studies. Future applications of the simulation are planned
for studying individual and group behavior, including principles underlying
cooperative and competitive behavior, processes of attitude formation and
change, human decision-making under uncertainty, and environmental change
as a source of social stress.
Acknowledgments
Grateful appreciation is expressed to Robert Gayvert, RIT Research Corporation for his advice and technical assistance to this project.
References
BEHAVIORAL/SOCIAL SYSTEM SIMULATION (B/SSS). Plummer CM, Hollar
DW (1991) Simulation Systems Laboratory, Rochester (Rochester Institute of
Technology, City Center 05588, 50 West Main Street, Rochester, New York 14614
US)
Knapp V (1986, 1987) The Smalltalk simulation environment, Parts 1 & 2. Proceedings
of the Winter Simulation Conference. Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego
Hedry B (1989) Distributed object-oriented discrete event simulation. MS computer
science thesis proposal, Rochester Institute of Technology
Plummer CM (1978) Impact on time perspectives of differing levels of environmental
change and individual resource control in social systems simulating components of
'future shock.' PhD dissertation, Indiana University
Plummer CM (1989a) Social system simulator design specification 0.0. Paper presented
at the North American Simulation and Gaming Association Annual Conference,
Indianapolis, Indiana
Plummer CM (1989b) Design and evaluation of computer-based behavioral/social
system simulations. In: Klabbers JHG, Scheper WJ, Takkenberg CA Th, Crookall D
(eds) Simulation-gaming: On the improvement of competence in dealing with complexity, uncertainty and value conflicts. Oxford, Pergamon Press
86
Plummer and Hollar
Plummer CM (1990) Design and application of a behavioral/social system simulation
version 1.0. Simulation Systems Laboratory, Rochester
SmalltalkN Mac: Object-Oriented Programming System. Digitalk, Inc. (1989) Digitalk,
Inc., Los Angeles (9841 Airport Boulevard, Los Angeles, California 90045)
Unger BW (1986) Object-oriented simulation-Ada, C2 +, Simula. Proceedings of the
Winter Simulation Conference. Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego
Charles M. Plummer is Director of the Simulation Systems Laboratory and
a principal scientist at Rochester Institute of Technology. He has designed
several simulations, authored publications, and conducted several externallyfunded projects involving the use of simulation technology. He chaired the
Simulation Systems Special Interest Group of the American Educational
Research Association, served as an Associate Editor of Simulation & Games:
An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research, and is currently
an elected member of the Board of Directors, North American Simulation
and Gaming Association.
David W. Hollar, laboratory assistant in the Simulation Systems Laboratory
has just completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science at
Rochester Institute of Technology, with emphasis on artificial intelligence,
object-oriented programming systems, and data communications. He is now
with International Business Machines in Washington, DC.
Section 2
Communication
and Culture
Communication and Understanding
Around the World
Linda Costigan Lederman!
Abstract. Communication and understanding is a global issue. This presentation takes
a systems theoretic perspective to the discussion of communication. It begins with
the description of complex information processing systems which are at the heart
of communication and their various features. Human beings are identified as these
complex information processing systems. The presentation goes on to discuss the
importance of recognizing that communication is often taken for granted. The advantages of viewing human communication from a systems perspective, the differences
between a linear information transfer model and a transactional model of communication are pointed out. The implications for intercultural communication and understanding, of modeling communication in this way, and more about the applications
of these considersations for people concerned with simulations and games are also
included.
Key words. communication; communication models; culture; global modeling; information processing; intercultural; language; linear model; meaning
The title of my presentation is global as to befit this conference, which is
concerned with global modeling for solving global problems. Certainly effective
communication between people and between nations has become a problem of
global proportions. The subject, however, is far greater than I could possibly
address in the time allotted. I shall limit myself, therefore, to one critical
aspect of communication: information processing. My purpose today will be to
discuss with you how a systems theoretic perspective on communication and
understanding can provide insight into the most complex, challenging, and
formidable of information systems to be found anywhere on the globe. Let me
begin my remarks by describing to you briefly these information processing
systems. I'll take these first few paragraphs to describe them, and then tell you
what they are called.
First, I can tell you that everyone knows something about these information
systems, although some know more than others. Those of you who know more
1 Department
of Communication, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, US
89
90
Lederman
about these information processing systems, know how little you know about
them. You know that the more you know about them, the more you know how
little you know because these information processing systems are far more
complex than they appear to be on the surface. I hope I have not lost you in
the paradox I am trying to paint with words. What I am getting at is that the
information processing systems I have in mind are complex enough to be
worthy of a lifetime of study. Thus even though these systems are familiar to
us, they need to be described in detail to remind us of the complexity which we
may take for granted due to our familiarity with them.
The information processing systems about which I am concerned today
are multidimensional and multifaceted. They can be and in fact usually are
programmed to handle a variety of languages-English, Japanese, Russian,
French, German, Spanish, to name but a few. Some of them are capable of
handling as many as several of these languages. Along with the languages I
just mentioned, all of them are programmed to handle other complex symbol
coding systems, such as mathematics, logic, decision making, analytic processes, or logistics. These systems, once created and programmed, participate
interactively in vast networks of other similarly programmed information
processing systems, all of which have the capacity to generate information as
well as to classify it, sort it, store it for future use, modify it, update it,
transmit, and retrieve it, usually upon demand. These systems are designed to
be user friendly, in the sense that they take into account the needs of the users
who interface with them. They are capable of communicating with other
systems even with seemingly incompatible features.
The systems to which I am calling your attention have a life span of decades
and can usually, although not always, can be counted upon to improve with
age, at least before they begin to become out of date and less efficient. But
even when they can no longer function in some ways as they did when they
were newer, they have capacities in their later years that go beyond that for
which they were originally programmed. Thus they have the capacity to do
more than operate in the transfer of information or data from one place to
another. They can assimilate information from various sources and systems
within the environment in which they are located. These sources of information
can vary from the most complex to the most elemental and still be manageable
by the information processing systems I am describing. But they can, too, take
raw data from the environment, gather it up, make sense of it, interpret and
decide what to keep and what to discard, what to store for immediate access,
and what to keep for future retrieval. These systems have the capacity to
process information, and are endowed with rich and continuously upgrading
processes for interpreting data.
In a word, these are remarkable systems-systems which in one way go
beyond anything any of us here might design, create, or invent-yet in another
sense, these information processing systems are the products of you and me,
or others like us. They are dynamic, interactive, mutually affected by, and
affecting other systems with which they interface and interact. Let me say one
more thing about these systems before I label them. They are able to react to
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other systems. To respond and create new and different information based on
the information provided by other systems and their processing and interpreting of that information. Beyond processing of information, therefore, these
systems themselves create information and information about information,
and react to this information based on the complex, reiterative, multiphased
processes of information input-output.
You may have begun to surmise that the information processing systems to
which I am referring are human beings. People can be viewed as informationprocessing systems. Viewed as such, people appear to have all of the richness
of systems such as those engaging in communication I have been describing
and more. In sum, people as information-processing systems are complex,
multifaceted, and multidimensional. They are programmed to handle a variety
of languages, as well as to handle other complex, symbol-coding systems. They
participate interactively in vast networks-other people all of whom, too, have
the capacity to generate information as well as to classify it, sort it, store it for
future use, modify it, and update, transmit and retrieve it, usually upon
demand. As systems, people do more than operate in the transfer of information or data from one place to another. They assimilate information, and/or
take raw data from the environment, gather it up, make sense of it, interpret
it, and decide what to keep and what to discard, and so on. Beyond the
processing of information therefore, people, as systems, create information and
information about information, and react to this information and to others
based upon the complex, reiterative, multiphased processes of information
input-output.
Why, you may wonder, especially when the title of my presentation is
"Communication and Understanding," have I chosen to talk about people as
information processing systems? I have not made this choice because I wish to
present people as machines. People are not machines. Quite the contrary.
Because people are not machines, it is often possible to take for granted the
complexity of design and maturation that goes into the evolution of each
human being's capability to participate in communication, to be, as I have been
describing it, a system capable of sensing, sorting, interpreting, and responding
to information.
I have made this choice to describe people as information-processing systems
for three important reasons, each of which I want to discuss. The first reason
for thinking of human beings as information-processing systems, and viewing
the process in which they engage from a systems perspective, is that communication is such an on-going and ubiquitous experience that it is easy to take
it for granted. While most of us may remember when we first learned to read
or write, few, if any, among us can remember our first words or sounds.
Few can remember beginning to engage in the process of communication.
Engagement in communication begins at least at the moment of birth. As
Vickers (1967) put it "Insofar as I am human, it is at birth I was claimed by a
system which systematically programmed me for operation in itself." Communication as a process is so inherently part of the human experience that it
may appear as if it were "natural"and therefore be taken for granted. It is not
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natural. Our instincts are natural, and communication certainly relies on the
use of our instincts. But communication relies upon the process of socialization
in which we learn about those instincts and about ways that are socially
acceptable expressions of them. So the first reason for viewing communication
from a systems perspective is to provide a reminder of the complexity of the
process and all that has been and is continuously programmed into us to allow
us to participate in it.
There is a second reason for thinking about communication from a systems
perspective. The second reason is to emphasize communication as a vital life
process, what Thayer (1968), among others, has called the metabolism of
information. Viewed this way, there are two vital life processes. The first is the
metabolism of matter or energy. The second, is the metabolism of information.
As humans, we can no more function in the society if we fail to metabolize
information than we can function in the physical world if we cannot metabolize
matter. If we cannot breathe, we cannot live. If we cannot ingest, digest, and
egest matter, we cannot support life physically. So, too, if we cannot ingest
information, process it and eliminate that which we do not need, we cannot
support life socially. If we cannot process the information we see here in Kyoto
and tell the difference in directionality between the way cars move on the roads
of Kyoto from the roads with which many of us are familiar, we cannot even
cross a street here.
By thinking of humans as information processors, I am shifting levels of
analysis. Rather than viewing people as part of vast social systems, which
we are, I am reminding us that as people we are also in and of ourselves
information-processing systems. This individual level of analysis is required if
one is really to discuss communication and understanding. For understanding
does not take place at the level of social systems. It takes place, if at all, at
the level of individuals. Groups do not understand one another. Individuals
understand one another. If understanding between groups, nations, and
cultures is to exist at all, then understanding takes place on the individual, oneto-one basis. Thus a second reason for discussing communication from a
systems perspective is to reinforce the complex nature of individual human
beings, let alone the social systems which individuals form, and therefore
simple answers will not be found in human global issues.
Finally, I have selected to approach the topic of communication from a
systems perspective because there are a number of faulty assumptions often
made about human communication that become obvious when we think of
human beings as systems-systems which take in information and process it.
The three most problematic and faulty assumptions are that (1) meanings are
in words, (2) the messages sent equal the messages received, and (3) communication equals the transfer of information. Let us examine each of these
faulty assumptions and see wherein each is erroneous and is avoided by a
systems perspective.
The first faulty assumption is that meanings are in words. It is easy to believe
this. Today as you listen to my words-or to the simultaneous translation
of them-it is easy to think that words carry meanings and that therefore
Communication and Understanding
93
we need only learn words to communicate. But only the literal meaning of a
word exists in the symbol itself. The connotations and the various associations
of language in use are derived in people not in words. Words are symbols;
it is people who bring the meanings to those symbols. If we view people
as information processors, one way of taking into account that part of the
human information-processing activity is the interpretative function. That
is to say, that part of processing information is bringing meaning to it.
Meanings exist more in people than in the words they select to convey their
meanings.
The second faulty assumption about the way communication works is that
the message sent equals the message received. When we view communication
as an event in which one person sends a message to another, we think that
good communication occurs when the message sent equals the message received. Viewing communication from a systems perspective reminds us that the
messages are input and output of systems and that these are interpretative
systems. Therefore, what something means to one human being is not inherently and necessarily what it will mean to the next.
The third faulty assumption is that communication equals the transfer of
information. If we assume that meanings are in messages, that messages
sent are equal to those received, then we see communication as a linear,
information-transfer process. But while getting the information from one
place or person to another is a necessary condition for communication, it is
not a sufficient condition. Along with the transfer of the information are the
interpretative processes which each human being brings to the communication
transaction.
A systems theoretic perspective allows us to conceptualize and model
communication in such a way as to avoid the misconceptions I have been
discussing. Most of these misconceptions grow out of what is called in the
communication discipline the linear model of communication. This model,
originally put forth in the work of Shannon and Weaver (1949), works well
when the object of concern is information and the transfer of information from
one place to another. Those familiar with the work of Shannon and Weaver
know that they were electrical engineers and that their concern was the fidelity
of phone lines for transporting electric impulses with accuracy and without
distortion. To this day, this is a concern with technologists and others concerned with telecommunications. The model is a good one for machines. It is
an important one when we want to assure that the information generated at
point one is the same as that transmitted to point two. Unfortunately, this
kind of linearity was applied to the message exchange between people. It is
represented in a linear fashion. Figure 1 represents this model.
In the model, S stands for the sender of the message, M stands for the
message, C for the channel or pathway for that message, and R stands for the
receiver of the message. The model was put forward by Berlo (1960). It is
based on the linear notion of the work of Shannon and Weaver and assumes
that the sender and the receiver of the messages are people and that people can
function like transmitters and receivers.
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s
SF.NDER
Fig. 1. Linear model of communication
In the information-transfer paradigm, information and its transfer equal
communication. Viewed this way, communication is simply the amassment of
information. But beyond information, communication exists as a complex
process involving interpretations of information. It is this interpretative aspect
of communication which accounts for the creation of meaning. Communication
is not simply a process in which a message is sent and received. It entails the
interpretation of that message and the attribution of meaning to the message
by its creator (the encoder of the message) and its recipient (the decoder).
Philosophically, it is possible to mount the same arguments about messages to
which no meanings are attached as to trees falling in forests where no people
are present.
But an apparent anomaly presented itself often enough as to discourage
communication scholars in the application of this notion. What became evident
and impossible to explain with this linear model was that the message sent did
not always equal the message received. Speakers did not always convey to
listeners what they wanted to, even when the speakers were good. This led to a
variety of changes in the conceptualization of communication and how it works
when it involves people and human factors. The most compelling of these is the
systems approach, in which people are viewed as systems and messages as the
input and output of each of these systems; messages which are exchanged
between them. Figure 2 presents a model of communication based on this
systems approach. It is referred to as the transactional model of communication, and is a synthesis of the work of many communication scholars, beginning
with Newcomb (1961).
In this model the sender and receiver of the message are represented by A
and B. The change to the symbols A and B is to indicate that all people in the
process of communication are both senders and receivers of messages, and that
it is artificial to the point of misrepresentation to divide the functions as if some
people only send and some only receive messages. In the model, X represents
the message. You can see that the model is not linear. The arrows in the model
are two way, to represent the exchange between participants and the impact of
people on messages and messages on people.
What are the advantages of seeing communication from this perspective? In
the contribution by Dennis Meadows New Earth 21 and education is discussed.
Meadows discusses the six elements in that project and the need to educate
the public. It is that need that highlights this way of thinking about communication. If communication were merely the transfer of information, then the
Communication and Understanding
95
A ....- - - -.. . B
x
Fig. 2. Transactional model of communication
project would not require reeducation. It is that people are not merely the
passive recipients of information that in this case presents the challenge. It
presents the challenge of attempting to get those messages through. Of trying
to understand sufficiently the people to whom the messages are intended
in order to know how to send the messages in ways that are likely to be
meaningful to them.
This is the challenge to those of us using simulations and games. It is our
understanding of the experiential that allows us to find avenues to create
transactions between people that are rich in their potential for educating and
for the transfer of paradigms of how to get information to people. We know
from our own experiences, especially here at ISAGA, that communication
is complex and that it is intercultural. That communication is a product of
culture and that it is therefore culture-bound. As early as the 1960s, Marshall
McLuhan, the mass media theorist, wrote about the global village. As early as
that time, he envisioned the change in our world in which we could know one
another like the residents of one village because of the capacity of electronic
media, especially television, to let us "travel" to places from our armchairs.
Thirty-odd years later, the technological societies in which many of us live and
the potential for immediate and further technological change abound more
than even the mind of a brilliant thinker like McLuhan could anticipate. We
see this in our everyday lives when we can communicate with each other
before, during, and after ISAGA through electronic, technological means. We
have telecommunications, computers, televisions, fax machines to name but
the most obvious used today.
But at the same time, people have not changed. Each of us is born and
raised in a particular culture. And that culture teaches us many things, including the socially-defined right and wrong ways of doing most things, including
communicating. From a systems perspective, we can think of comm\lnication
and culture as a dialectic relationship. That is, we can look at the ways in which
cultures create communication and communication creates culture. We can
look at ourselves here today and see that we are at once the products of our
culture and the producers of that culture.
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Thus, a systems perspective provides us with a way to think about communication between people, including between people of different cultures. If
each of us is a system programmed to participate in the culture in which we are
raised and socialized, then the impact of that social system needs to be taken
into account when members of different social systems attempt to communicate
with one another. This means that we need to know the differences that make
a difference; we need to be able to find ways in which to reduce the stress
associated with communication between people of different cultures. Intercultural communication requires a kind of adaptation that goes beyond the
accommodations of daily interpersonal communication. It requires a kind of
self-reflexivity and self-altering, an ability to be creative and find new and
meaningful ways of sharing meanings with others. Those of us who work with
simulations and games are familiar with these kinds of needs. We design and
use simulations and games for many of these same purposes. If we are to find
a way to create understanding between people that is as advanced as the
technologies we are creating to carry messages between people, we need to
find ways in which to educate people about themselves and others, as well as
about the differences between them that make a difference.
The challenge, then, in finding applications for the solutions to global
problems is to find ways to get human beings to want to make the changes
necessary to deal with global problems. Meadows addressed us about the
changes necessary in global systems. I am referring here to the changes necessary in human information-processing systems. I am referring here to the
need to get people to process information differently and thereby to be willing
as well as able to make the changes they need to ensure that the earth and its
inhabitants survive.
Thinking about communication from a systems perspective is a major step in
the direction towards change in people. It has advantages over the more linear
notions about human communication. First, this way of thinking allows us to
identify the elements of communication, to describe and explain them in
relation to one another, and to create a model and work it to see what it will
take to create change for humans. Second, thinking about communication from
a systems perspective allows us to identify and list the assumptions underlying
that model, to examine them, and to be prepared to challenge them. Finally,
this approach allows us to examine the ways in which humans need to be
approached and worked with if we are to maximize their ability to communicate well with one another-to find the basis for understanding between them.
One of the most obvious means through which this understanding can take
place is language. Language and culture have an inseparable relationship.
Both language and culture are dynamic and complex, but patterned. Spoken
communication and its cues, are constrained by culture, as is the interpretation
of the linguistic cues. Misunderstanding related to intercultural differences
in language use can only be prevented by an awareness of how a culture is
operating on the production and interpretation of communication. There are a
myriad of differences in intercultural communication which can influence how
meaning is interpreted. These differences can be explored systematically by
Communication and Understanding
97
examining the dynamics associated with the elements of the communication
process: people (acting as encoders and decoders), messages (words and
actions), media (pathways), and context (framework). Let's look amongst
ourselves gathered here today, for example. The aggressive Westerner and the
self-effacing Easterner have learned different styles of self-presentation. These
differences are open to misinterpretation since they are differentially valued in
the cultures in which they have been learned.
Related to presentation of self is rapport/style or the degree of friendliness
or politeness which is deemed desirable. These, too, are culturally influenced.
Most speech activities-discussing a topic (collaborative or combative);
negotiating (how people agree or disagree); conversation management (turn
taking, interruptions, length of pause, use of silence, feedback); ways of
structuring information (getting to the point, digression, sender- or listenercentered); ways of speaking (voice tone, intensity, volume, pitch); definitions
and interpretations of words and their use, and so on-are culturally derived.
The same holds true for other fundamental elements of communication:
media and context. The selection of the appropriate medium for a message-is
it a handshake or a wave, a kiss or a smile, words or non-words, written or
spoken?-is culturally derived. So, too, is the understanding of the context.
The definition of the situation and what is expected and appropriate to it are
part of the element of the context of communication. These are culturally
derived and therefore likely sources of differences amongst people from
various cultural backgrounds.
You and I here today come from different cultures and different disciplines;
we have different goals and different skills. What we have in common is our
interest in simulations and games and our concern with their application
towards making the world a more liveable place. As we heard in the presentations this morning, the solutions cannot be merely technical. The solutions
need to take humans into account. And this is what I have been talking about
this afternoon. Communication and understanding between people requires
understanding of people. It requires understanding of what people are and how
they function in communication. It requires facing our assumptions and not
falling victim to them-not falling prey to the assumption that because we have
created new technologies for the transfer of information that we have automatically created new capacities in human beings for the processing of that
information or for more effective communication. We as simulation and game
people are concerned with the ways of knowing. We are skilled at designing
and using systems which represent those issues, concerns, and ideas we want to
model. We can model global issues. It is human response to those issues to
which we also need to attend. There is a story of an elephant at the circus
which would help me make my point of the pitfalls to avoid. It was chained to
a small wire from the time it was an infant elephant. When it was huge and full
grown it remained tied to that tiny chain. A visitor to the circus remarked to
the elephant trainer that he was afraid the elephant might break loose and hurt
people. The trainer assured him that it was impossible. "That elephant learned
in infancy that he couldn't escape from that chain no matter how hard he tried.
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He doesn't know he's changed." said the trainer, "He doesn't know how much
he has grown." Let us not in our design of new and complex systems forget
about people. Let us not assume that they have changed, for even if they have
and they know it not, they, like the elephant at the circus may not be able to
take the new steps of which they are capable.
In our work with simulations and games, it is our job to make sure that we
help the humans for whom they are designed. We have to encourage them to
realize the capacity to change and to do what they perhaps could not once do.
That is the challenge that faces us.
References
Berlo D (1960) The process of communication. Holt, New York
Newcomb T (1961) The acquaintance process. Holt, New York
Shannon C, Weaver W (1949) The mathematical theory of communication. University
of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL
Thayer L (1968) Communication and communication systems. Irwin, Homewood, IL
Vickers G (1967) The multivalued choice In: Thayer L (ed) Concepts and directives.
Spartan, Washington, DC
Linda Costigan Lederman, Chair, Department of Communication, Rutgers
University, US, specializes in instructional and interpersonal communication
with an emphasis on experiential learning. Dr. Lederman received her
education at Brown University (BA), Columbia University (MA), and
Rutgers University (PhD). She has written 4 books, 20 book chapters
and/or journal articles; presented more than 100 conference papers and
professional seminars; and designed/published a variety of communication
simulations and games including L & L ASSOCIATES, and with Lea
P. Stewart, SIMCORP, LIND LEE ENTERPRISES, THE MARBLE
COMPANY GAME, and PASS IT ON. Dr. Lederman is immediate past
Editor of Communication Quarterly and Associate Editor of Simulation &
Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research. Her
research focuses on the use of qualitative methods, most especially, simulation/games and focus group interviews, to generate qualitative data about
affective and behavioral dynamics associated with verbal communication.
Synchrony and Intercultural
Communication
Young Yun Kim!
Abstract. The concept of synchrony presented at the conference is elaborated here as a
foundation of effective intercultural communication. Synchrony refers to a state of
congruence and harmony in verbal and nonverbal communication patterns of two or
more interactants. Synchronic communication naturally occurs when the interactants
share common cultural norms and whose psychological orientation toward each other is
one of harmony and cooperation. Because synchronic communication, by and large,
follows cultural scripts shared by the interactants, creating synchrony across cultures
requires a special awareness and effort by at least one party. A three-person role-play
that is designed to enhance an awareness of synchronic communication is presented at
the end of this paper.
Key words. adaptation; accommodation; congruence; harmony; intercultural communication; kinesics; paralinguistics; role-play; synchrony
Culture has been compared to computer software because it provides a "program" for our perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors (Hall 1976). Cultural
programming for communication goes far beyond words. It includes many
nonverbal acts, upon which judgments are based of what is transpiring and
from which conclusions are drawn as to what has occurred and how to react to
it. What words we say and how we say them are largely within the perimeters
of our cultural program, including the time and timing of speech acts, the tone
of voice appropriate to the subject matter, the facial and bodily expressions
accompanying speech, and the physical distance separating one speaker from
another (Gudykunst and Kim 1992).
Because members of a given culture share a common set of communication
norms, they are able to understand, respond to, and coordinate each other's
verbal and nonverbal acts and messages with fidelity. When this interpersonal
"coordination" (Pearce and Stamm 1973) occurs in a high-level fidelity, a state
of synchrony or harmonic convergence is achieved between the participants'
of Communication, University of Oklahoma, 610 Elm Avenue, Norman,
Oklahoma 73019, US; phone 405-325-3111; facsimile 405-325-7625; e-mail aa0101 @
uokmvsa. bitnet
1 Department
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communication styles-just as the sound from a radio station becomes crystal
clear as we tune in at the correct frequency level. Although synchronic communication generally occurs without the conscious awareness of the participants, the participants themselves do sense the "togetherness" that results
from the smooth and cohesive flow of their interaction.
This paper advances a view that the concept of synchrony is equally relevant
to situations of intercultural communication in which interact ants do not share
common communicative norms and styles. Even casual observers recognize
that Americans, for instance, do not move or vocalize the way Japanese do,
and that each group's common behavioral patterns help define its cultural
distinctiveness in communication. The present discussion of intercultural
synchrony emphasizes, however, that, unlike intracultural communication
situations, participants in intercultural encounters must make conscious efforts
to create synchrony, and that a synchronic state, when created, is likely to
serve as a crucial enhancer of the quality of communication between cultural
strangers. Learning a language may be necessary but not sufficient to communicate with those in other cultures.
Synchrony
Synchrony takes various forms, both in spoken language and nonverbal
activities. Hall (1976), in studying synchronic patterns in various cultures,
focused his analysis primarily on kinesic and proxemic behavior patterns
such as bodily, posture, and facial expressions. He used the term, "syncing,"
or "being in sync," to describe the phenomenon in which people when communicating move together, in part or in whole. In doing so, each party mirrors
or complements the other, in whole or in part, in a kind of dance. Such is the
case of the Japanese bowing, in which two people's lowering of the head and
the upper body follows a symmetric or complementary form and rhythm of
movement.
Along with bodily activities, synchrony occurs in the paralinguistic aspects of
speech. When two friends confide in each other, for example, they often speak
"in one voice" each converging to, and echoing, the other's tempo, loudness,
pitch, tone, and pauses-just as singers in a chorus sing the same melody
together or sing two different melodies at once in harmony. Research in
Speech Accommodation Theory (Giles 1977) and Communication Accommodation Theory (Gallois et al. 1988) provides an explanation and empirical
evidence for such paralinguistic convergence. Studies have shown that, in
cooperative and trusting social contexts, speakers tend to shift their speech
styles to increase perceived similarity between them. It has also been demonstrated that speakers diverge from an interaction partner's speech style when
they find their identity threatened by the encounter or the other party.
Synchronic communication can occur in other aspects of verbal messages as
well. It has been observed that people adjust their verbal message strategies
Synchrony and Intercultural Communication
101
and contents in ways that are more appropriate to particular encounters.
Bernstein (1966, 1981) has suggested that people tend to focus on the lexical
and syntactic levels of others in terms of elaborated and restricted codes, and
then adapt their linguistic choices accordingly. Higgins et al. (1982) found that
speakers were more likely to "stick to facts" relating something about a target
person, when they believed the listener did not have the same information
about this person. Speakers have also been shown to assess listeners' common
sense for additional information inferences, and do not feel the need to verbalize what listeners can figure out from something they hear. (See Cheng 1991
for a review of related studies.)
The various forms of synchrony-kinesic, paralinguistic, and linguistic-are
most evident in communication encounters in which the interactants are
conjoined with mutual interest, concern, and cooperation, as explained by the
Principles of Cooperation for conversation (Grice 1975, Levinson 1983). In this
state of psychological convergence, as in the case of two good friends sharing
an intimate moment, synchronic communication naturally unfolds and manifests itself in harmoniously-orchestrated bodily rhythms and movements and
cohesive verbal exchanges. As such, synchrony provides an optimal context in
which interactants experience minimum interpersonal strain and maximum
communicative fidelity.
Creating Intercultural Synchrony
Given that synchronic communication is based on a common, culturallyprogrammed, behavioral repertoire and that this phenomenon is most salient
when the participants are in a cooperative mode, difficulties of creating
synchrony across cultures are unavoidable. Intercultural communication
typically begins in an asynchronic state with limited psychological and communication coorientation between participants. Much of one's taken-forgranted cultural assumptions can be a hindrance to this situation, and kinesic,
paralinguistic, and linguistic practices are only partially readable to each other.
More than likely, the interactants themselves recognize this "out-of-sync"
situation and feel the confusion and discomfort it brings. Even an American
and an English person may experience at least some level of difficulty in this
regard, and the chances of one's being unable to synchronize with the other
increases as cultural distances increase.
To the extent that intercultural synchrony does not occur naturally, the
communicators have to "work" to create it. They need to make a conscious
effort to establish a congruent and harmonious interaction rhythm if they are to
enhance their chances of succeeding in their communication activities. At least
one party has to make adjustments in his/her own "normal" communication
style to accommodate and adapt to those of the other person. Without such
deliberate attempts, the participants' communication experiences are likely to
remain awkward, uncomfortable, and unsuccessful.
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Preparing for Intercultural Synchrony
Achieving intercultural synchrony is a process that requires experience. To
facilitate this learning process, a newcomer to intercultural communication
activities should work to (1) to recognize that each interactant is an individual
and (2) to remain calm. First, synchrony is facilitated when the communicator
approaches an intercultural encounter with a personalized orientation, or a
view that takes into account the fact that the interaction partner is as much a
unique person as s/he is a member of a cultural group. No two persons in any
group are alike; yet we often let our stereotypes dictate the way we deal with
a specific person with whom we are communicating. Social identity theory
(Tajfel 1974, Turner and Giles 1981) articulates this general tendency that
people generally have of seeing outgroup members in light of their group
membership, and not by their individual identity. This stereotype-based group
orientation contributes to the phenomenon of "intergroup posturing" (Kim
1991), which is manifested in exaggerated "we-they" distinctions, in hasty
and premature judgments of outgroups, and in impersonal treatments of the
individual outgroup members.
Second, when dealing with strangers from a different and unfamiliar culture,
our communication experiences are characteristically stressful. Stress is a
natural human reaction whenever our internal capabilities are not adequately
prepared for the demands of a situation. Much research attention has been
given to the stress-related phenomena of intercultural communication such as
"intergroup anxiety" (Gudykunst 1988, Stephan and Stephan 1985), "culture
shock" (Furnham and Bochner 1986), and "adaptive stress" (Kim 1988, 1991).
Yet, to create synchrony interculturally necessitates that we are able to relax
and manage stress. It is this ability to relax in the potentially stressful situations
of communicating with cultural strangers that helps us remain flexible and not
rigid or closed-minded. As we relax, we are better able to focus our attention
fully on the stranger without being distracted by our internal anxiety and
without making premature judgments about him/her. In doing so, we can more
accurately recognize the stranger's new and unfamiliar communication style,
which then "frees" us from the control of our cultural norms of communication
and allows us to make appropriate adjustments in our behaviors.
Fig. 1. The synchronic process
Synchrony and Intercultural Communication
103
It is clear, then, that we must overcome the tendency of intergroup posturing
and learn to give each cultural stranger a chance to fully reveal himself/herself
by paying special attention to his/her uniquenesses. The personalized orientation, along with our a!:>ility to relax in the face of cultural unfamiliarity and
differences, should faciiitate our behavioral flexibility to mirror and complement the cultural stranger's verbal and nonverbal communication patterns
(Fig. 1.) In light of the significance and utility of synchrony in intercultural
communication, a three-person role-play is presented in the Appendix as an
initial attempt to develop useful learning activities.
Conclusion
In sum, this essay has forwarded the concept of synchrony as vital to enhancing the quality of intercultural communication in subtle but profound
ways. Synchrony, when achieved, should provide a harmonious interpersonal
milieu, in which psychological and behavioral differences can be bridged and
cooperative interactions can be facilitated. Our ability to create synchrony,
in turn, serves as a basic communication competence crucial to developing
mutually satisfying relationships with cultural strangers-one at a time. To
this end, we need to improve our ability to stay relaxed and flexible and to
attend to the other person's uniquenesses while being mindful of his/her
cultural characteristics. The question, then, remains: How willing are we to
give each intercultural encounter a full chance it deserves and the best effort it
requires?
References
Bernstein B (1966) Elaborated and restricted codes: Their social origins and some
consequences. In: Smith AG (ed) Communication and culture. Holt, Rinehart and
Winston, New York, pp 427-441
Bernstein B (1981) Codes, modalities and the process of cultural reproduction: A
model. Language in Society 10:327-363
Cheng L (1991) Topic management as communication accommodation strategies in
intra- vs intercultural interactions. Doctoral thesis, Ohio State University
Furnham A, Bochner S (1986) Culture shock: Psychological reactions to unfamiliar
environments. Methuen, London
Gallois C et al. (1988) Communication accommodation in intercultural communication.
In: Kim YY, Gudykunst WB (eds) Theories in intercultural communication. Sage,
Newbury Park, pp 157-185
Giles H (1977) Language, ethnicity and intergroup relations. Academic Press, London
Grice H (1975) Logic and conversation. In: Cole P, Morgan J (eds) Syntax and
semantics 3: Speech acts. Academic Press, New York, pp 41-58
Gudykunst WB (1988) Uncertainty and anxiety. In: Kim YY, Gudykunst WB (eds)
Theories in intercultural communication. Sage, Newbury Park, pp 123-156
Gudykunst WB, Kim YY (1992) Communicating with strangers: An approach to
intercultural communication, 2nd edn. McGraw-Hill, New York
Hall ET (1976) Beyond culture. Anchor Books, Garden City, NY
104
Kim
Higgins et al. (1982) The "communication game": Goal-directed encoding and cognitive
consequences. Social Psychology 1:21-37
Kim YY (1988) Communication and cross-cultural adaptation: An integrative theory.
Multilingual Matters, Clevedon, UK
Kim YY (1991) Intercultural communication competence: A systems-theoretic view. In:
Ting-Toomey S, Korzenny F (eds) Cross-cultural interpersonal communication. Sage,
Newbury Park, pp 259-275
Levinson SC (1983) Pragmatics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Pearce B, Stamm K (1973) Communication behavior and coorientation relation.
In: Clarke P (ed) New models for mass communication research. Sage, Beverly Hills,
pp 177-203
Stephan W, Stephan C (1985) Intergroup anxiety. Journal of Social Issues 41(3):
157-175
Tajfel H (1974) Social identity and intergroup behavior. Social Science Information
13:65-93
Turner R, Giles H (1981) Intergroup behavior. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Young Yun Kim is a professor of Communication at the University of
Oklahoma. She has written Communicating with strangers (with W.
Gudykunst) and Communication and cross-cultural adaptation: An integrative theory. Among her edited books are: Interethnic communication and
Theories of intercultural communication (with W. Gudykunst). Her current
research foci include the role of communication in interethnic and interracial relations and the dimensions of communication competence that
facilitate intercultural adaptation and relationship building. She serves
on several journal editorial boards including Communication Theory,
International Journal of Intercultural Relations and Simulation & Gaming:
An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research.
Appendix: A Role-Play on Synchrony
The specific synchronic communication activities involved in this role-play is limited to
kinesic behaviors. This role-play serves, however, as a protocol, based on which similar
versions can be developed for paralinguistic, linguistic, and other aspects of communication. Debriefing activities are incorporated into the instruction for each player.
Once the role-play is completed, members of each three-person team share individual
experiences, followed by a discussion among the entire group.
Instructions for Person A
Standing up, B will be initiating a 10-min conversation with you introducing himself/
herself. Engage in this conversation by asking appropriate questions to learn about B,
and observe and identify B's facial expressions, hand gestures, body postures, and body
movements. As you recognize B's unique kinesic style, make necessary adjustments in
your own style in such a way that is congruent to B's. Throughout the conversation, try
to be relaxed. Be prepared to discuss the following after the role-play.
1. What specific patterns of B's facial, hand, and body movement were you able to
identify?
Synchrony and Intercultural Communication
105
2. What adjustments did you try to make in your own facial, hand, and body movements to make them more congruent with B's?
3. Did your efforts to synchronize with B's movements make any difference in the
conversation process? If yes, how? If no, why not?
Instructions for Person B
Standing up, initiate a lO-min conversation with A introducing yourself (your name,
background, current work, etc.). Speak and act naturally. After the conversation, be
prepared to discuss the following.
1. Do you feel good about the conversation with A? Why? Why not?
2. How do you feel about your partner A? Did you notice any specific things A did that
helped you to carryon the conversation?
Instructions for Person C
Standing up, observe a lO-min conversation between A and B. Position yourself on the
sideline where you cannot interfere with the conversation. B will initiate a conversation
introducing himself/herself to A. A will attempt to synchronize with B by adjusting
his/her kinesic styles to that of A. Closely observe how A synchronizes his/her hand
gestures, body postures, facial expressions, and body movements with those of B. Also
observe how A's synchronizing helps B's behavior and the flow of the conversation as a
whole. Be prepared to discuss the following after the conversation.
1. What specific styles in B's body language were you able to identity?
2. How successful was A in synchronizing with B's body language?
3. How did A's synchronic effort help the flow of conversation?
Global Network Simulation:
An Environment for Global Awareness
David Crookall 1 and Patty Landis 2
Abstract. Two multi-site, network simulations are described-ICONS and IDEALS.
Many overlaps exist between the two projects, both in form and substance, but the
differences are important too. Project ICONS focuses on foreign policy and foreign
language translation; Project IDEALS concentrates on international understanding and
cross-cultural communication. Both projects use specialized simulation management
software to allow teams, situated in different parts of the world, to send messages to
each other and to hold real-time teleconferences.
Key words. computerized simulation; cross-cultural communication; environmental
concerns/issues; foreign language; foreign policy; global concerns/issues; international
understanding; network gaming; network simulation; software; teleconferencing;
translation
Computer-assisted simulations in international education have a variety of
applications which span academic disciplines. The earliest simulations to take
advantage of computer networks were pioneered by Professor Robert C. Noel
of the University of California at Santa Barbara (Noel 1969, 1979; Noel et al.
1987). The POLIS simulations utilized ARPANET and later Telenet to link
several universities in the United States and abroad, via connections through
US military bases. These simulations use the computer as a tool to facilitate
and organize communications among teams situated around the globe. Students
relate to each other and respond to human situations, with the computer as a
background aid, as opposed to reacting to a computer program that largely
1 Project IDEALS, English/Morgan, Box 8670244, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa,
AL 35487-0244 US; phones 205-348-9494 (w), 205-752-0690 (h); facsimile 205-348-5298;
e-mail crookall@ua1vm(Bitnet).crookall@ua1vm.ua.edu (Internet), crookall@igc.org
(PeaceNet/EcoNet)
2 Project ICONS, Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
20740 US; phone 301-405-4171; e-mail patty@umd2.umd.edu (Internet)
106
Global Network Simulation
107
determines the course of the simulation (for a discussion, see Crookall et al.
1986).
The International COmmunication and Negotiation Simulation (ICONS)
and the International Dimension in Education via Active Learning and
Simulation (IDEALS) are two simulation projects which developed on the
foundation laid by POLIS. Project ICONS evolved from POLIS, and Project
IDEALS can be considered as a third generation of network gaming. Both
ICONS and IDEALS offer large-scale, multi-site, interactive educational
experiences in a variety of fields related to international and global concerns.
In a word, Project ICONS provides a range of simulation exercises, particularly in the areas of foreign policy and foreign language, while Project
IDEALS uses simulation as a tool to foster international understanding and
develop cross-cultural communication skills among people of diverse cultural
and ethnic backgrounds.
In both projects, the simulation experience is grounded in the principles of
experiential learning. The experience itself motivates students to become fully
involved by giving then an opportunity to take responsibility for their own
learning. As in many simulation/gaming activities, learning by doing becomes a
reality, or as Confucius once said:
I hear and I forget
I see and I remember
I do and I understand
Computers and Networks
The central component of both projects a is large-scale simulation assisted by
computers and telecommunications. Students take on the roles of high-level
officials representing various countries involved in negotiations or attending an
international conference. The country teams are situated at different campuses
(usually one team per campus) and communicate using computer networks and
specialized simulation management software called Polnet II (containing over
40,000 lines of C code). This has been designed specifically to allow participation in simulations by teams of students located at various sites across the
globe.
In order to participate in ICONS or IDEALS, a team must have access
to a personal computer (PC), a word processor, a printer, a modem, a telecommunications package, and a phone line. Any PC can be used, including
IBMs, clones, Apple family PCs, and Acorn BBCs or Archimedes. There
are several alternatives for connecting to Polnet II, housed at the host institutions (Maryland or Alabama). The main options are Internet and SprintNet.
Internet is a worldwide telecommunications system, the US-based part developed by the US National Science Foundation for educational and governmental use. Many universities have interactive connections to Internet and
allow local high schools to tie into the system. The principle advantage of
108
Crookall and Landis
Internet (NSFnet) is that there is no cost to the end user for communication. If
an institution does not have access to an Internet connection, a commercial
communication service called Sprintnet (previously Telenet) may be used to
make the connection for the ICONS simulation. Local participants can also
dial in using a regular phone line.
Messages are exchanged over the computer network in two ways. A daily
mail system allows teams to send texts to other teams, which may be situated
on the other side of the planet. In addition, real-time teleconferences are
scheduled on a regular basis and focus on a particular issue. In a teleconference, students in Japan, France, Argentina, and the US, for example, would
actually be communicating simultaneously with each other. As the team in
France sends off its message in the dialog, it automatically appears on the
screens of the teams in Japan, Argentina, and the US.
Structure
Both projects have a basically similar three-part structure. Teams spend
some weeks preparing for the simulation. This may involve conducting research into the issues, studying background documents, preparing position
papers, refining their country's foreign policy, looking at cross-cultural communication, learning how to use the computer, developing familiarity with
simulation methodology, and organizing their team.
The actual simulation generally lasts 4-6 weeks, during which time participants become immersed in their learning environment. They hold formal and
informal meetings, make decisions, negotiate, draft texts, do library research,
take part in teleconferences, use computers and telecommunication networks,
videotape sessions, and keep a log or journal of their experiences. This phase
may contain pauses for feedback (formative debriefing) on such aspects as
group work and cross-cultural communication skills.
'
The third phase, following the simulation, lasts 2-3 weeks and is dedicated
to the most important aspect of the learning experience: debriefing the simulation experience. Debriefing is conducted primarily on each individual campus, although pilot networked debriefing sessions have proven successful at
both the faculty and student levels. Participants analyze the entire experience,
drawing upon the on-line questionnaire data as well as additional criticalappraisal forms, viewing videotapes, taking part in structured discussions,
examining their personal logs, and conducting searches on the messages sent
during the simulation.
One aspect of the debriefing process is looking at the messages which were
sent during the simulation. The message bank is opened up at the end of each
simulation to permit students to track messages that were exchanged between
other countries. This facilitates research into negotiation styles and a comparison of strategies. In addition, students are encouraged to discuss and write
about the simulation experience in relation to real-world issues.
Global Network Simulation
109
Project ICONS
Project ICONS was developed in 1981 at the University of Maryland. The
simulations enable students to obtain a realistic sense of the complex relations
among international issues and an understanding of the role that language
plays in international affairs. Groups of student decision makers at participating institutions are each assigned to represent the government of a particular country. The country-teams spend several weeks negotiating real-world
problems, such as global warming, international debt, international trade, the
nuclear non-proliferation treaty, human rights, and drug trafficking. The issues
that will be covered are defined in detail in a scenario tailored for each
individual simulation.
Messages are generated in the foreign language of the country being represented. For example, a team in Argentina or a team in the US representing a
Spanish-speaking country, sends its messages in Spanish. Language students at
the receiving end translate these messages and pass them along to the foreign
policy students for appropriate action. Thus far, ICONS simulations have been
conducted in Spanish, French, English, German, Russian, Japanese, and
Hebrew. Language students are given the opportunity to apply their language
skills in situations where their peers depend upon the accuracy and promptness
of translations.
Participation in an ICONS simulation permits students to create and test
negotiation strategies, improve communication skills in several languages,
understand the interdependence of international issues, appreciate cultural
differences in approaches to world problems, work in teams to solve problems,
and use computers for multinational communication. ICONS is a program
which brings students and faculty from various disciplines together to deal with
issues that bridge traditional departmental boundaries.
In the 1990-91 academic year, ICONS conducted ten simulations. These
included two university programs and eight simulations for high school
students. Twelve simulations were conducted in the 1991-92 academic year,
with a pilot program in Latin America concentrating on illicit drug issues.
ICONS currently services more than 100 schools and universities from many
countries, including Britain, Japan, Argentina, Chile, France, Germany,
Finland, Korea, the US, and other countries.
Project IDEALS
Project IDEALS is based on ICONS and offers a learning environment in
which the primary objective is to bring students together from different
cultural backgrounds, essentially foreign (or international) and native (or host)
students, both in the US and abroad. Like ICONS, IDEALS is a multi-site,
semester-long, socially-interactive simulation.
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Crookall and Landis
Teams are made up of native (host) and international (foreign) students.
Each team develops an identity, usually by taking on the role of a hypothetical
country. Participants within each team develop cross-cultural awareness and
skills through interaction with others in their team, as well as through telecommunication with other distant teams. They also develop skills in decision
making, negotiation, and leadership.
The ultimate goal of the simulation is for teams to negotiate an agreement
related to some international situation. For example, the task might be to
hammer out the text for a treaty governing some aspect of the global environment, such as CFC emissions, the use of the ocean's resources, and the
future of Antarctica. The technological, economic, social, cultural, and ethical
dimensions of these issues are hotly debated, from several cultural perspectives, within and among teams.
Participating institutions are to be found in Australia, Finland, France, Hong
Kong, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Singapore, the UK, and the US. Software
design and development currently under way consist of additional modules for
Polnet II, including an on-line questionnaire authoring system, a text analysis
facility, and a simple mathematical modeling capability.
Workshops
Both IDEALS and ICONS provide 2-day training workshops for team facilitators. The workshops provide an overview of the simulations, computer
training, and sessions on the content and curriculum of the specific simulation.
Workshops are usually held in the semester preceding participation in a
simulation. Information on how to participate in ICONS or IDEALS can be
obtained by contacting one of the authors. For further information, see
Crookall et al. (1988), Crookall and Wilkenfeld (1985), Klobusicky-Mailander
(1991), Rawson (1990), Tammelin (1991), and Wilkenfeld (1983).
Conclusion
ICONS and IDEALS offer two related, but very different simulation experiences designed to improve students' personal grasp of international
issues and communication. Participation in these programs gives students the
opportunity of interacting on a substantive level with students on their own
campus and at other institutions around the world. Through computer-assisted,
interactive network simulation, students are given the opportunity to learn
about global interdependence and to take responsibility for that learning.
Acknowledgments
Support for ICONS has been provided by the US Institute of Peace (USIP),
the Organization of American States (OAS), the US Department of Education,
IBM, the Maryland State Department of Education, the state of Maryland,
Global Network Simulation
111
the state of Pennsylvania, and the Toronto Board of Education. Support
for IDEALS has been provided by the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education (FIPSE), US Department of Education, by the University of Maryland, and by the University of Alabama.
References
Crook all D, Wilkenfeld J (1985) ICONS: Communication technologies and international relations. System: An International Journal of Educational Technology and
Applied Linguistics 13(3):253-258
Crook all D, Martin A, Saunders D, Coote A (1986) Human involvement in computerized simulation. Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory,
Design, and Research 17(3):345-375
Crookall D, Oxford R, Saunders D, Lavine R (1988) Our multicultural global village:
Foreign languages, simulations, and network gaming. In: Crookall D, Saunders D
(eds) Communication and simulation: From two fields to one theme. Multilingual
Matters, Cevedon, Avon
Klobusicky-Mailander E (1991) Iconomics 101: A telecommunications simulation on
Europe 1992. Simulation/Games for Learning 21(1):43-53
Noel RC (1969) The POLIS Laboratory. American Behavioral Scientist 12:30-35
Noel RC (1979) The POLIS methodology for distributed political gaming via computer
networks. In: Bruin K et al. (eds) How to build a simulation/gaming. Leeuwarden,
Netherlands
Noel RC, Crookall D, Wilkenfeld J, Schapira L (1987) Network gaming: A vehicle for
intercultural communication. In: Crookall D, Greenblat CS, Coote A, Klabbers
JHG, Watson DR (eds) Simulation-gaming in the late 1980s. Pergamon, Oxford
Rawson JH (1990) Simulation at a distance using computer conferencing. Educational
& Training Technology International 27(3):285-292
Tammelin M (1991) Project ICONS: Using a multinational computer-assisted simulation in a language class. In: Savolainen H, Telenius J (eds) EUROCALL 1991:
International conference on computer-assisted language learning. Helsingin
kauppakorkeakoulun julkaisuja
Wilkenfeld J (1983) Computer-assisted international studies. Teaching Political Science
10:4
David Crookall is Director of Project IDEALS at the University of Alabama
and a tenured faculty member in the French university system. He is past
president of ISAGA and Editor of Simulation & Gaming: An International
Journal of Theory, Design, and Research.
Patty Landis is the ICONS Simulation Director at the University of
Maryland. In this capacity, she writes simulation scenarios, conducts
simulations, and plans and organizes the ICONS simulations. In previous lives she has been a US Foreign Service Officer and a government
instructor.
Global University for Global Peace Gaming
Takeshi Utsumi l and Arturo Garzon2
Abstract. This paper describes the construction of an infrastructure for global education
and peace gaming, in particular on the issue of environment and sustainable development in Third World countries. The games are intended to train would-be decision
makers in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques. Experience shows that the expertise necessary to participate in peace games does not exist in
many parts of the world. To help educate future participants and to promote the cause
of peace by enhancing exchanges of education and joint research, the Multinational
Project on Secondary and Higher Education (PROMESUP) of the Organization of
American States (OAS) is joining efforts with the GLObal Systems Analysis and
Simulation (GLOSAS) Project to create a GloballLatin American (electronic) University (GLAU) as an initial step in that region towards full implementation of a Global
(electronic) University (GU) consortium. This paper provides a brief account of the
steps taken over the past 12 years which have led to the development of the GU so that
Latin American institutions can meet the challenge of global issues.
Key words. conflict resolution; crisis management; distance education; global environmental peace gaming; global lecture hall; global neural computer network; global
university; globally distributed decision-support system; GLOSAS project; OAS;
REDLAED
The need to understand the economic, social, and environmental issues in
different regions of the planet and the need for the peoples of the world
to learn to communicate and to cooperate has never been more pressing.
Economic, ecological, and political issues today are global, and they must be
faced in all of their complexity. It is imperative to develop an authentic sense
of planetary citizenship to confront planetary issues that endanger the life of
our species. This task is too large for government regulation, aid agencies, or
1 GLOSAS/uSA, 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-3998, US; phone 718-9390928 (w/h); telex 386131 (GIS USA); EASYLINK 62756570; SprintMail TUTSUMII
GU. USAfASSOCIATES. TNET; Internet utsumi@cunixf.cc.columbia.edu
2 Department of Educational Affairs, Organization of American States, 1889 F Street
N.W. Washington, DC 20006, US; phones 202-458-3309 (w) 301-983-8762 (h); facsimile
202-458-3149; SpintMail AGARZONfGU.USAfASSOCIATES.TNET
112
Global Peace Gaming
113
development banks alone. Restoration of the environment must engage all
citizens of the globe, and yet sustainable development is ultimately a local
activity.
To support the struggle for the preservation of our ecological heritage, we
propose a worldwide telecommunications network for education and non-profit
purposes: a Global (electronic) University (GU) consortium. One initial step
of this would be the establishment of a Global/Latin American (electronic)
University (GLAU), cooperating with the recently created Latin American
Network for the Development of Distance Education (REDLAED).
GU can facilitate the operation of existing distance educational enterprises
by developing a cooperative and worldwide infrastructure and by bringing
the powers and resources of telecommunications to ordinary citizens around
the world. The quality of education for those unable to attend conventional
universities in disadvantaged countries could be greatly enhanced.
Connections between departments of economics, sociology, and political
science in various countries are being established to explore conflict resolution
and for new-world-order alternatives to war, with the use of global teleconferencing. Faculties, researchers, would-be decision makers, and students of
those institutions and universities can be the players of a global peace game.
Background
In 1972, the GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation (GLOSAS) project on
energy, resources, and environment (ERE) systems for global peace gaming
was started (Utsumi 1977, Rossman and Utsumi 1986, Utsumi et al. 1986).
With computerized simulations and a combination of advanced telecommunication channels, such gaming will enable experts in many countries to collaborate in finding new solutions to the problems that have previously been the
causes of war.
Over the past 12 years, GLOSAS played a major role in making possible the
extension of USA data communication networks to other countries, particularly
to Japan. GLOSAS helped the deregulation of Japanese telecommunication
policies for the use of electronic mail and computer conferencing through
USA-Japan public packet-switching lines. This enabled cost reduction of telecommunications and the European Economic Community (EEC) and Latin
American countries have followed suit.
Multipoint-to-multipoint multimedia interactive teleconferencing technology
which GLOSAS/USA has developed and demonstrated for the past several
years uses audio, data, text, computer, and slow-scan TV teleconferencings,
audio-graphic, facsimile, packet-radio and packet-satellite, and full-color, fullmotion video teleconferencing. GLOSASIUSA has conducted many demonstrations of a global lecture hall, in which participants in several countries
can hear, talk to, and see the other participants, using inexpensive methods
for Third World countries. Demonstrations included uplinking to satellites
combined with audio and slow-scan teleconferencing, global computer con-
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Utsumi and Garzon
ferencing, and facsimile for question-and-answer exchanges. The most ambitious demonstration had 14 sites linked together, from the east coast of the
USA to Korea, Alaska, and Australia.
In the particular case of Latin America, their educational systems have
not been able to provide the quality and quantity of education needed for
self-sustained development. To confront this situation, Latin American
and Caribbean governments, with the support of the Regional Program for
Educational Development (PREDE) of the Organization of American States
(OAS), commenced the implementation of distance education projects with
the purpose of improving and expanding educational opportunities for a
growing population of students who could not attend the traditional education
system.
In order to support the efforts of Latin American distance educators,
GLOSAS/USA organized a demonstration of the large-scale interactive
satellite teleconference, global lecture hall with the use of various inexpensive
global telecommunication media to show the possibilities of global education.
This was done on the occasion of the XVth World Conference of the International Council of Distance Education (ICDE) in Venezuela, 1990.
Global University
The GU will distribute education from all the world's best sources to all the
students who crave knowledge, wherever they are, so as to enlarge and expand
the present exchange of courses into a worldwide educational system. The
system will provide a specially tailored educational program for each individual, bringing to his/her home an array of resources that can empower
individuals and bring new wealth to the Third World.
GLOSAS/USA was established as a publicly supported, nonprofit, educational service organization in 1988 for quality and availability of international
educational exchange through the use of computer, telecommunication, and
information technologies. It seeks to create a Global (electronic) University
(GU) Consortium which will become a more permanent organization of the
international education exchange via various telecommunication media.
To help educate future participants of peace games and to promote the cause
of peace by enhancing exchanges of education and joint research, GLOSAS is
attempting to create a Global/Pacific University (GPU), a Global/Latin
American University (GLAU), and a Global/European University (GEU)
consortia. These, along with a Global/Indian University (GIU) (Charp 1988),
can become part of a true Global University.
Global Peace Gaming of GLOSAS
The global peace gaming of GLOSAS is a computerized gaming/simulation to
help decision makers construct a globally distributed decision-support system
Global Peace Gaming
115
for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war. The idea involves
interconnecting experts in many countries via global value-added networks
(VANs) to collaborate in discovering new solutions for world crises, such as
the deteriorating ecology of our globe, and to explore new alternatives for
a world order capable of addressing the problems and opportunities of an
interdependent globe (Mische 1988).
The globally distributed peace gaming/simulations will be for policy analysis,
conflict resolution, cooperation, and training in negotiation techniques.
Gaming/simulation is the best tool we have for understanding the world's
problems and the solutions we propose for them. The distributed mode with
autonomously maintained and updated databases and simulation models will
not only give credibility and integrity to the databases and models but will also
motivate local people.
One of the largest and perhaps most successful demonstrations was held at
the conference on Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution given by the
World Future Society in New York, 1986. A global gaming/simulation session
with a multimedia teleconference on the USA-Japan trade and economy issues
was demonstrated. Nearly 1,500 people took part, in New York, Tokyo,
Honolulu, and Vancouver.
Some countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have been experiencing
environmental deterioration due to the mass impact of a rapidly growing and
poorly educated population. A GLAU can take full advantage of the potential
that telecommunication networking offers for education, information, simulation, exchange of ideas, cooperation, and problem solving. Education and
socioeconomic system simulations are the warp and woof in the fabric of
projects that GLOSAS/USA is weaving in collaboration with voluntary
associates in several states and overseas countries. In Latin America, education
and system simulations are two of the many activities needed to save the
environment while pursuing industrial development.
GLOSAS/USA submitted a project plan to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) that will expand and exploit telecommunications
systems within Latin America and outside to the United States and Japan. The
specific objectives are:
-
To organize the operation of telecommunication networks for sharing
experiences and reporting regional issues
To build databases on environmental issues in distributed mode
To implement training and educational courses
To construct a globally distributed decision-support system with distributed
interactive computerized gaming/simulation systems for problem analysis,
policy formulation, and assessment, which will be used for training of
decision makers in conflict resolution and negotiation
These are to be done with distributed computer conferencing, databases, and
simulation systems among several Latin American countries to provide globally
distributed peace gaming/simulations focusing on environmental issues. Several
systems will be interconnected to form a global neural computer network in
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Utsumi and Garzon
such a way that the total system will act as if it were a single system with
parallel processing of those subsystems in individual countries-here, each
game player with his submodel and database corresponds to a neuron of a
global brain.
A comprehensive model of global resources, ecology, and economy is
needed for the rational management of ecology and for economic cooperation
among nations and economic blocs. We propose a public open modeling
network (OMN) which will consist of models developed by local experts
interconnected by global VANs (Utsumi et al. 1986). Interconnection of dissimilar computers and models for peace gaming on ERE systems, architectures
for linking heterogenous computers were outlined by Utsumi and DeVita
(1982).
An outline of the hierarchical structure and distributed components of an
integrated, interactive peace gaming/simulation system for energy, economics,
foreign trade, and so on is depicted in Fig. 1 (Utsumi 1974a). Each block in the
figure represents dissimilar computers of the public VANs in those countries.
These computers include simulation models designated in each block. All
models will be executed simultaneously and concertedly via satellite and
terrestrial telecommunication links. For example, suppose pollution in Japan
exceeded a certain allowable level, say, around 1977 on Fig. 2 (Utsumi 1974b),
the Japanese expert watching it on the display unit will stop the entire simulation. All participants, wherever they are located, will then try to find, with
the use of the conferencing system, a consensus on a new set of pseudoalternative policy parameters which will be executed until a new crisis appears,
say, around 1984 on the figure. The process will be repeated for rational policy
analysis, based on facts and figures, and with international cooperation of
experts in both countries.
The purpose of an interactive gaming mechanism is to help find appropriate
alternative policies by establishing consensus among participating parties. It is
suggested here that globally distributed computer simulation should be tested
interactively with the game player inserting pseudo-policy parameters into the
models whenever necessary. This is called peace gaming/simulation (Utsumi
1977) similar to war games practiced by military strategists (Schram et al.
1971). With the advent of global VANs and standard interface protocols for
interconnecting various dispersed, dissimilar host computers, the potential
exists for ensuring the coordination of international efforts by providing more
frequent communications and an environment for shared development, enabling more credible simulation study than was previously possible.
It is now possible to combine existing technologies to make sophisticated
and more holistic explorations of various scenarios for solving global social
problems. Many small computers in different countries can be interconnected,
through globally distributed network and information processing, into modeling
and simulation instruments for playing peace games on the scale of Pentagon
war games (McLeod 1987).
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Fig. 2. Growth of Japanese petrochemical industry. (From Utsumi 1974b with permission)
Total Annual Plastic Production (Yen)
Price Index = - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ' - - - ' - - Total Annual Plastic Production (Ethylene)
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Global Peace Gaming
119
Conclusion
Global education via satellite and other telecommunication media is the
way towards the twenty-first century "Age of Knowledge," laying a social
infrastructure for global citizenship of the global village. Extending communications through a global network and sharing ideas and educational
opportunities with other locations is of paramount interest. The exchange of
knowledge among countries can make major contributions to world peace.
Developments in global electronic education can transform education at all
levels around the world, and can enrich and transform human society.
GU is an evolutionary concept with no global precedent. It can now take
shape gradually through parallel steps and many kinds of initiatives in many
regions, encouraging a sense of universally shared responsibility and a spirit of
participation, in an enterprise truly global in scope.
The world is shrinking in the electronic sense and all people and all educational programs are becoming increasingly interconnected. With this interconnection, however, there comes the potential for escalating regional conflicts,
so the need for global education with global peace gaming has never been
greater. Senator Fulbright once said that "learning together and working
together are the first steps toward world peace." The time is ripe for global
education. The technology is now available. What we need now are people
who are eager to face the challenges of our time and to forge ahead toward the
education of the twenty-first century.
References
Charp S (1988) Editorial. THE Journal 8 August
McLeod J (1987) TAK is TICKING. Simulation December: 273-274
Mische G (1988) Partners for world-order alternatives. Breakthrough 9:1-3, 18
Rossman P, Utsumi T (1986) Waging peace with globally-interconnected computers. In:
Didsbury HF Jr. (ed) Challenges and opportunities: From now to 2001. World Future
Society, Bethesda, MD
Schram S, Marks H, Behrens W, Levin G, McLeod J, et al. (1971) Macro-system
simulation. Panel discussion session at the 1971 Summer Computer Simulation
Conference (SCSe). In: 1972 SCSC Proceedings. Society for Computer Simulation,
San Diego, pp 1491-1502
Utsumi T (1974a) Joint US/Japan project on global systems analysis and simulation
(GLOSAS) of energy, resources and environment (ERE) systems. In: Proceedings of
the conference on energy modelling and forecasting, Berkeley California, 28-29 June
1974. National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA, pp 121-144
Utsumi T (1974b) Japan petrochemical industry model for the GLOSAS project. In:
Proceedings of 1974 SCSC. Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego, pp 318-325
Utsumi T (1977) Peace game. Simulation November: 135
Utsumi T, DeVita J (1982) GLOSAS project. In: Schoemaker S (ed) Computer networks and simulation II. North Holland, Amsterdam, pp 279-326
Utsumi T, Mikes PO, Rossman P (1986) Peace games with open modeling network.
In: Schoemaker S (ed) Computer networks and simulation III. North Holland,
Amsterdam, pp 267-298
120
Utsumi and Garzon
Takeshi Utsumi is Chairman of GLOSAS/USA which he created in 1988; a
member of the Board of the University of the World in California; Director
of the World Association for the Use of Satellites in Education (WAUSE)
in Bari, Italy; a board member of the Institute for Educational Studies in
Atlanta, Georgia; an advisor to Electronic Information Exchange System
(EIBS) of the New Jersey Institute of Technology; and Technical Director
of the GLOSAS/Japan.
Arturo Garzon is Principal Specialist of the Department of Educational
Affairs in the Organization of American States, and the Editor of the
Interamerican Review of Education. He majored in science teaching and
earned a masters degree in educational technology at Florida State
University. He joined the OAS in 1972 to provide technical assistance
to member States in introducing educational innovations and promoting
technical cooperation.
Establishing Cross-Cultural Connections
in the Classroom
Arlen Gargaglianol
Abstract. In this paper I will describe my presentation at the 1991 ISAGA conference.
This session demonstrated how role-plays based on contemporary videos or critical
incidents can be used for increasing cultural awareness and generating communication
in a variety of learning situations.
Key words. critical incidents; cross-cultural awareness; cross-cultural communication;
debriefing; role-play
My presentation at the 1991 ISAGA conference contained possible activities
for (1) generating communication among multicultural, non-native English
speaking participants/students and (2) increasing cultural awareness. Both
activities use situations of misunderstanding due to cultural differences as a
basis for role-play. The first activity was a role-play based on video segments
from a contemporary US television show. The second activity was a role-play
based on a critical incident. Both activities explore the use of different options
in particular situations, and inspire discussion on the varied interpretations of
the encounters by the students/participants.
There are a couple of reasons why I began to explore the area of role-play.
Role-play in a limited form has been a part of my English-as-a-SecondLanguage (ESL) classroom for some time. I say limited because initially I was
creating situations for role-play that were often too contrived, and students
were not participating in the way I had hoped they would.
Another reason for working on role-play activities was that for the past
several years my classroom population has consisted primarily of Japanese
students. In general, these students have studied English for many years, but
have virtually no experience in speaking the language. Though these students
were continually encouraged to participate in class discussions, they appeared
reluctant to join in and were often overpowered by their non-Japanese class1 English Language Center, Concordia College, 171 White Plains Road, Bronxville,
New York, 10708 US; phones 914-337-9300 ext. 2134 (w) 914-235-6922 (h); facsimile
914-395-4500
121
122
Gargagliano
mates. Then I began experimenting with assigning specific roles for role-play
activities. I found that if my students were assigned a new identity, student
participation improved dramatically. In addition, these activities gave us a
chance to explore stereotypes and prejudices, while generating a great deal of
communication in English.
The first role-play was based on a video segment from the popular US
television show Thirtysomething. The segment was divided into four separate
scenes. All the scenes were about the wedding of two people who were from
two very different cultural backgrounds.
Initially I described how a theme-related discussion should be used before
viewing a video segment. For example, because this segment deals with the
marriage of two people from very different cultural backgrounds, we could
address such questions as: Are intercultural marriages common in your
culture? What are some of the problems encountered by people in intercultural
marriages? How does one propose marriage in your culture? Participants
agreed that this type of discussion serves as an introduction to the topic of the
segment, as well as to the vocabulary.
In the first scene of the video segment we see several family members eating
dinner. They are discussing something in Polish and are speaking loudly,
simultaneously, and using many gestures. One person, a female guest, has no
idea what is going on. She, Ellen, appears frightened by what she views as a
major family argument. Ellen is seated next to her boyfriend, who is introducing her to his family. When the conversation changes to English, Ellen
learns that they were discussing Sylvester Stallones' not winning the academy
award for the movie Rocky. Ellen is quite surprised to learn the topic of
discussion.
We then viewed a second segment in which Billy, Ellen's boyfriend, stands
up to make an announcement in Polish. By the parents' reaction, we can see
that he has announced he has asked Ellen to be his wife. Ellen appears
confused as Billy's mother repeatedly kisses her hands (a congratulatory
gesture) and his family smiles at the exciting news.
Immediately following this segment I stopped the tape. At that point I
assigned roles. The students played the roles of Billy, Ellen, Billy's father, his
mother, and his grandmother. They were told to sit at desks arranged in the
position of a large dining room table, and to continue the discussion immediately where the tape left off. The rest of the participants were observers.
The role-play went on for about 5-10min. Their conversation was based on
themes introduced by the video. They elaborated by bringing up additional
questions such as where they would live, and how often they would be able to
come back to visit. Some participants spoke using their own accents, while
others used an accent they thought their character would use.
When we stopped the role-play, one of the observing participants suggested
that we change it so that the situation be more realistic according to the
participants' cultural backgrounds. We changed the role-play around so that
Japanese participants played Japanese parents in a situation as described in
the video. This role-play did not flow as well; in fact, it just stopped. The
Cross-Cultural Connections
123
participants said that they weren't sure how Japanese parents would react.
They said they had felt more comfortable in the more unfamiliar roles.
A few different points came up during the debriefing. One participant said
that he was really into the character, but suddenly he started thinking about
the role-play itself and lost his train of thought. We briefly discussed how
people can fall out of character, which makes it sometimes difficult to get back
into the role-play. When I commented on one participant's use of an accent
different from his own, he said he had adopted it as part of making the role
more vivid.
We also discussed how much people draw on their personal experiences
when acting within a role-play. One participant suggested that it is the reality
of certain situations for participants that make role-plays such effective learning experiences. We talked about the applications of this type of experiential
learning to business training and the use of video as a tool for generating
communication about a variety of situations.
The second role-play we worked on was given in written form to all of the
participants. It was based on the following critical incident:
A group of students from country X attend a basketball game in the
United States at the college where they are currently studying. While
watching the game, the referee makes what they consider a bad call, so
they start whistling loudly. A young professor turns to them and says
"Hey, what's the matter with you guys?" Two of the students reply
"Nothing, what's the matter with you?" The professor then replies
"I'll see you two at the Dean's office at 8:00 a.m. Monday morning."
Surprised, the students he addressed begin to laugh. The young professor
adds "I was only kidding before, but now I mean it. You better be there
Monday morning."
After reading the incident, the participants were divided into groups of four.
Within each group they were assigned roles: the Dean, the young professor
and the two students. They were asked to imagine that they were in the Dean's
office on the following Monday morning.
After several minutes of role-play, the participants switched roles and
continued. Then the role-play was discussed. During the debriefing, several
points where raised. One point that came up was how people interpreted the
role of the Dean differently. For example, in one group the Dean was completely authoritative, while in another, the Dean was much more diplomatic
in terms of asking those involved what they thought should happen next. We
also discussed whether in that case the role of the Dean was that of student
advocate. Participants pointed out that because the critical incident is somewhat vaguely described, the role-play has a lot of flexibility and it becomes a
richer vehicle for exploration by people involved in it.
Perhaps the most fascinating part of the debriefing was the participants'
discussion about applications of these role-plays to their own varied situations.
For example, I never would have imagined using these type of activities in a
business situation. However, several of the participants were involved in cross-
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Gargagliano
cultural awareness training for businesses and said that they were very excited
about using these types of role-plays in their work.
Acknowledgements
The author thanks David Crookall for his suggestions and support, and
Margaret Pusch for introducing her to the idea of using critical incidents.
Arlen Gargagliano teaches English as a Second Language at Concordia
College in Bronxville, New York, where she is also International Student
Advisor. She conducts workshops for students, educators, and educational
consultants on cross-cultural awareness. She is currently exploring the use of
video as a means of both stimulating and recording role-play situations.
Collaborative Creation of
Adventure Games in
the ESL One-Computer Classroom
Douglas W. Coleman!
Abstract. This is a report on a workshop conducted at ISAGA '91 in Kyoto, Japan. The
format of this workshop was as follows. First, two short simulations used in an ESL
teacher-training course were demonstrated to participants: one of a "traditional"
(grammar-focused) language-learning exercise, the other of a "communicative" activity.
A debriefing was conducted in which participant reactions were discussed, as well as
the apparent effects of the simulations on actual teacher trainee behavior. Finally, the
presenter showed how generic computer software can be adapted to a novel use in the
ESL classroom, describing an activity in which ESL students collaboratively create a
computerized text-adventure game. The activity is intended to promote self-reliance in
writing tasks by taking students from an environment of peer support to one of
increasing independence. At the same time, it creates a "bridge" for the novice teacher
from a highly teacher-centered (traditional) classroom to one in which the teacher's role
is quite different.
Key words CALL; computer-assisted language learning; English as a Second
Language; ESL; simulation/gaming; teacher training; TESL
In this workshop, two short simulation-activity demonstrations were followed
by a brief explanation of a generic system adapted for the collaborative creation of adventure-game-type, interactive fiction in the one-computer English as
a Second Language (ESL) classroom. The first short demonstration was of
a simulation of a "traditional" foreign-language-learning exercise focused
primarily on grammatical explanation rather than on communication in the
target language. The second demonstration simulated a brief language lesson
in the form of a "Direct Method" variant resembling Asher's (1977) Total
Physical Response (TPR) method. Slightly extended forms of these simulations
are used in a graduate ESL teacher-training course. Invariably, students in the
course recognize that they frequently can perform with 100% accuracy on a
traditional exercise even in cases (like the one in the simulation) in which they
do not understand any of the target language forms with which they are
1 Department of English Language and Literature, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH
43606-3390 US; phones 419-537-2318 (w), 419-475-8301 (h); facsimile 419-537-4940· email fac3079@uoft01.bitnet
'
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126
Coleman
Model:
Tu piuro.
Response: Tu-chi piuro.
Ta swoike.
Model:
Response: Ta-chi swoike.
Model:
Response:
1. Tu ofizino.
2. Ta skelpe.
3. Ta zione.
4. Tu meanso.
5. Tu tramo.
Fig. 1. "Traditional" language exercise
dealing. They also realize that they have learned from the second type of
lesson something about how to communicate in the target language despite its
complete lack of grammatical explanation. Even after experiencing such
demonstrations themselves, however, the same teacher trainees, when in the
role of language teacher, still tend to continue to use classroom techniques
based almost exclusively on the traditional type of lesson. A writing activity
couched in semi-traditional terms, but involving collaborative creation of
adventure games in the one-computer classroom, is proposed as a "bridge" to
help novice language teachers learn more about simulation/gaming in language
learning. The activity itself is described in the second part of this write-up.
Simulation of a Traditional Language Learning Exercise
I prepared the material shown in Fig. 1 on the blackboard before the workshop
actually began. (Note: both this and the second simulated-language lesson are
based on hypothetical "languages.") I explained the following points to the
participants: (1) tu and ta are Type X words; (2) piuro, swoike, ojizino, etc. are
Type Y words; (3) the grammatical order requires Type X + Type Y; (4)
adjacent Type X and Type Y words must have grammatical agreement; (5) to
form your response from the model, change Type X + Type Y to Type X +
chi + Type Y.
After this explanation, I led participants in providing a choral response to
each item. They were obviously quite familiar with the format of the exercise,
as they performed without hesitation despite only a brief exhortation to "provide the appropriate response-everyone together." Participants showed a
marked degree of confidence that they were giving the "correct answers," as
Creation of ESL Adventure Games
127
in fact, they were. Accuracy was essentially 100%. Movement through the
simulated lesson was brisk and very smooth.
Simulation of a Direct Method Variant
Immediately after this first demonstration, I presented a brief language lesson
in the form of a Direct Method variant resembling Asher's (1977) TPR method
in some ways and Gattengo's (1972) so-called Silent Way in others. As props, I
used a ballpoint pen, a paperback book, and a I-yen coin. Offering the pen to
one participant, I said Koi dwugop. When she hesitated, I requested more
emphatically Prosh, Koi dwugop. When she took it, I said Tienko. Then I said
to her Prosh, Dei dwugop-at the same time holding out my empty hand to
take back the pen. When I had the pen in my hand once more, I responded
Tienko. With another participant, I repeated much the same procedure, but
this time with the book, saying first Koi tiber and after that Prosh, Dei tiber.
Then I performed these actions (with yet another participant) with the coin,
this time accompanying them with Koi monet and Dei monet. After another
trial or two, I gave one (female) participant the coin (saying Koi monet) and
then, pointing at another (male) participant, said Prosh, Duo tan dei monetstressing the elements duo tan while pointing. When the male participant had
received the coin, I said to the woman Tienko. Then, turning to the man, I said
Prosh, Duo tani dei monet-this time stressing the elements duo tani while
pointing at the woman. He gave her the coin, I said Tienko, and the second
simulated language lesson ended there.
Overall, there were significantly more hesitations during the second simulated lesson than during the first. However, it should also be noted that the
accuracy of the responses required of the participants was still essentially
100%.
Debriefing/Discussion
First we discussed the traditional sort of lesson. Everyone seemed to agree that
the vast majority of our collective language-learning experiences most closely
resembled that type of presentation. The point that none of the participants
knew what any of the items on the blackboard meant was raised (though they
might make some guesses), and it became clear that this seemed to have no
effect whatsoever on their ability to do the exercise. A few of the participants
seemed surprised; undoubtedly, familiarity with the format was so great that
some never noticed this not-so-minor detail. One participant asked me directly
at this point what the model-and-response sentences meant; I replied (as is in
fact the case) that I had no particular meanings in mind for them when I
created the simulation. As another participant pointed out in the discussion,
much, if not all, of the grammatical explanation was itself superfluous to the
exercise, since the sample model/response pairs probably provided the necess-
128
Coleman
ary information to participants in order to allow them to produce the required
permutations for the response column.
Comments from participants relative to the second activity tended to focus
on its more communicative nature. They noticed that they came to understand
words of the (albeit hypothetical) language very rapidly. What soon became
clear was that they also were learning rules of word order (e.g., koi or dei
followed by dwugop or tiber or monet) and different forms for masculine/
feminine pronouns (duo tan vs duo tani), as well as socially important language
functions such as how to emphasize a request (with Prosh) or express appreciation (with Tienko) for an action performed on one's behalf.
At this point, I mentioned my observations of teacher-trainees who had
experienced simulated lessons just like these, later in their own ESL teaching.
As I said in the introduction to this article, their own teaching styles made
extensive use of materials strongly resembling the traditional language exercise
in the first simulated lesson. We briefly discussed why this might be so. There
seemed to be general agreement among those present that two causes were
most likely. First, novice teachers are often lacking in confidence (falling back
on a familiar teaching style provides the comfort of at least knowing that one is
engaging in an activity with a broad social acceptance, among colleagues as
well as students). Second, most teacher trainees themselves have several years'
prior experience as language learners, most of it in the traditional mode (it
is unreasonable to expect the intellectual "ah-ha!" that comes with their participation in a set of short simulations in a one-quarter course to completely
overcome these years of exposure to something else).
A Bridge Activity
What I am proposing is that collaborative creation of adventure games by
students in the one-computer classroom is one way to acclimate novice ESL
teachers to simulation/gaming by having them lead students in an activity in
which the end result is a piece of interactive fiction. This activity takes place
over a few class periods, as described below.
For the activity, we have an MS-DOS PC system outfitted with a color LCD
display unit that sits on any overhead projector to produce a wall-size image.
To build the piece of interactive fiction, a shareware hypertext program called
HYPE works quite well for displaying the story; it requires a word processor
that can produce "straight ASCII" files (GALAXY is one possibility, PCWRITE, another; both are also shareware).
Via the computer, the teacher shows students the opening scene (of only a
few sentences) of a piece of interactive fiction. This scene ends with two
branches; the teacher selects one alternative-advancing the story by one
scene. The second scene, like the first, ends with two branches. The teacher
returns to the opening scene and asks the students to predict "What if?" the
other alternative is chosen. The teacher this time selects the second alternative,
but the students see that this version of the second scene is blank. At this
Creation of ESL Adventure Games
129
point, the teacher leads the students in creating one. The activity up to this
point is a fairly traditional teacher-centered one. (Note that the students' new
second scene is also set up to end with two alternatives.) When the new version
of the second scene is completed, the story file is modified, so that the students
can see the effect of having two alternative second scenes.
With our typical maximum class size of 16 students, the students can then be
divided into four groups of four working on alternative third scenes. Each of
these teams writes and checks the language of its scene, and turns in the result
at the end of that class period. (All scenes end with two alternatives, unless it is
necessary to accommodate a class size of greater or less than 16.) The teacher
enters the new third scene alternatives before the second class. In that session,
students are divided into eight pairs, each working on a different fourth scene;
as before, each new scene typically ends with two alternatives. The teacher
collects the pairs' productions for incorporation into the story file before the
third class session. In this third class period, students work individually to write
and edit their own endings to the story. They are then able to explore and
discuss each others' various endings in the fourth (and final) class period
devoted to the activity.
This particular activity resembles a "frame game," in the sense that it allows
a new group to create a completely original interactive story with only minimal
additional preparation by the teacher, who must write the opening scene and
one alternative second scene. My motivation in designing this activity was to
foster increased self-reliance on the part of ESL students engaged in writing
and editing tasks. Over a period of four class sessions, it takes students from an
enviromnent of peer support to one of increasing independence, although they
are engaged in a cooperative effort throughout. It should be noted, however,
that it also takes the teacher and students from a classroom environment that is
highly teacher-centered (in a very authoritarian sense) to one in which the
teacher's role is quite different. While this is happening, the novice teacher
gets to see how an adventure game might be created, and how it fosters student
discussion and leads to writing that is both creative and communicative, not
mechanical. In sum, as the students and teacher trainee are constructing an
interactive adventure game, they are in the process of constructing a bridge
that leads to greater student independence in writing and greater teacher
confidence in non-traditional approaches to language learning.
References
Asher 11 (1977) Learning another language through actions: A complete teacher's
guidebook. Sky Oak Productions, Los Gatos, CA
GALAXY ver. 2.3. Schauer S, Foster B (1987) Omniverse, Renton (Omniverse, PO
Box 2974, Renton, WA 98056 USA)
Gattengo C (1972) Teaching foreign languages in schools: The silent way. Educational
Solutions, New York
HYPE. Thompson B, Thompson B (1985) Public domain hypertext program. Available
from the authors c/o AI Expert Magazine, 500 Howard St., San Francisco, CA 94105
USA
130
Coleman
PC-WRITE (ver. 3.02). Wallace B (1988) Quicksoft, Seattle (Quicksoft, Inc., 219 First
Ave. N, #224, Seattle, WA 98109 USA)
Douglas W. Coleman is Director of English as a Second Language in the
Department of English Language and Literature of the University of Toledo
(Toledo, OH USA). During 1990 and 1991, he has guest edited three special
Reports and Communications sections of the journal Simulation & Gaming:
An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research on "Computerized
Simulations and Language Learning".
Chinese Word Games for School Children
Gee Kin Yeo!
Abstract. Mastering the Chinese language is becoming a serious problem for school
children of ethnic Chinese in Singapore, where English is the working language and
very often the home language as well. While it is believed that learning through play can
be achieved to some extent with computer games, developing computerized word games
in Chinese is not easy because of problems of input/output and the internal representation of Chinese characters. Many Chinese systems depend on additional hardware cards
installed on standard PCs to increase the processing speed. Games developed on such
systems will not be readily portable. To achieve portability, some features of game
interaction are sacrificed. There are two components of the game system we have
designed: one for teachers who prepare the word database and one for the children who
play the games. Graphics and sound effects are also added to improve the appeal to
small children.
Key words
CALL; Chinese computing; interaction mode; portability; word games
Singapore is a multiracial society where English is the working language. In
many homes of the over 70% Chinese descendants, English is also the mother
tongue of small children. Surveys by the Ministry of Education show that it has
increased from 9.3% in 1980 to 23.3% in 1989, and has become the main
language of communication in the homes of school ~hildren
of ethnic Chinese.
On the other hand, more and more Chinese school children are finding the
learning of Chinese language in schools a tedious task. In the majority of
primary schools, Chinese is being taught as a second language, utilizing up to
only 5 h of formal lessons in a week. Thus, teaching Chinese effectively in
the classroom alone is becoming more and more difficult. This provides our
motivation in developing computer games to help children learn the Chinese
language at their leisure and in a fun way.
Games have been used very often to stimulate learning. Many Singapore
children are exposed to a variety of computer games. Earlier computerized
1 Department of Information Systems and Computer Science, National University of
Singapore, Kent Ridge, Singapore 0511, Republic of Singapore; phones 065-772-2908
(w), 065-469-3238 (h); facsimile 065-779-4580; e-mail iscyeogk@nusvm.bitnet
131
132
Yeo
language games were aimed mostly at vocabulary building and grammatical
rigor. More recently, computerized adventure games are also being looked
upon as effective communication development aids (Baltra, 1990). Adventure
games may exploit Chinese history, such as in ROMANCE OF THE THREE
KINGDOMS, the BANDIT KINGS OF ANCIENT CHINA, or GENGHIS
KHAN, which are popular among school children in Singapore. However, the
presentation and interaction media are still in English. Because of intrinsic
technical difficulty, computerized Chinese language games are far less numerous than their counterparts in alphabetic languages. Even if they were already
available in abundance elsewhere, it is necessary for Singapore to develop
games more attuned to its unique social and educational settings.
Chinese Computing
Chinese is not alphabetical. A Chinese character, as opposed to characters
in the Latin alphabet, has not only a definite shape in a two-dimensional
ideogram, but also its own sound and meaning. A Chinese character is made of
radicals, while a radical may itself be an independent character and take up
more than one different form. In pronunciation, a sound can be varied in five
different tones. In the Kang Shi dictionary compiled in the Qing Dynasty,.
there are 49,030 characters, 214 radicals, and 412 sounds. A word with a
distinctive meaning is made up of between one, and four characters in general,
with the majority having one or two characters.
The problem of representation and processing in computers of some 4,000
Chinese characters in common usage has been the preoccupation of many
Chinese linguists and computer scientists for the last 3 decades or so. With the
appearance and large scale application of low-cost microcomputers, research
activities have intensified, resulting in the development of more than 500 input
methods· and some desktop publication and typesetting systems (Lua et al.
1990) .
.Inputting a Chinese character into a microcomputer using the Qwerty keyboard requires two distinct steps. The first involves a mental mapping of the
two-dimensional ideogram into an input code. The second is the physical
process of converting this input code into the internal code of a Chinese
character within the computer system. Just as there are many different input
methods, there has also not been a consensus on the codes for internal representation. Essentially, the extended GB codes are adopted in mainland
China, while Big-5 is generally used in Taiwan.
System Design
We started simply, requiring the word games to be mainly drill-and-practice.
Since they were meant to supplement classroom exercises, we wanted to give
the teachers more control over the content of the word database. Thus, there
Chinese Word Games
133
was to be a wordbase management system for the teachers, separated from the
game system. Developing such a system with Chinese software alone poses
severe memory limitation problems. Thus, we used a Chinese system with a
hard card, which also facilitates the input and output for the wordbase management system. The wordbase management system allows the teachers to create
different databases for children in different standards. A requirement of the
resulting games is that they must be portable. This allows every child to play
the games on any microcomputer anywhere, and so they must not rely on the
Chinese hard card.
Word recognition is one of the main problems for school children in learning
Chinese. For example, character x is often confused as character y as they
make up xa and yb, two distinct words. Here x could be similar to y in
pronunciation, or share some similar radicals in their ideograms. Two of the
three games we designed aim to familiarize children with the correct characters
in the formation of words-one game on word formation of two characters,
and the other on matching words for idioms. The third game contains riddles.
The technique involved in making the games portable is actually not very
difficult. The databases created by the teachers will contain only the internal
codes of the Chinese words set up for the games. Thus, besides the databases,
the library which contains the bit patterns of the Chinese characters in the
internal codes has to be included with the games in order to display the characters on the screen. Randomly generated characters required in the games also
come from the library. Graphics and music were also added to enhance the
appeal of the games. The software used to develop the whole system includes
Clipper Summer '87, dBase III Plus, Turbo C+ + Language, and the Graphics
Animation System for Professional.
Future Work
There are obvious shortcomings in the word games designed. First, the gaming
activities involved are essentially "receptive," in that they merely require
players to select from items already given. The major difficulty in allowing
other forms of input using only the standard keyboard comes from the fact that
there is no standard Chinese input method. The existing input methods are
either too intelligent, hence offering far too much assistance for language
learning purposes or too difficult for small children. There ought to be a
Chinese input method that is natural in the process of learning the characters
themselves. This problem is generally acknowledged and is still being actively
addressed (Chen et al. 1987).
The only gaming characteristics included in our games are time limitations
and scoring boards. Much can be learned from word games in English in the
CALL literature, (see, e.g., Jones and Fortescue 1987), where simulation and
role-play activities to practice communicative skills can also be incorporated.
As mentioned earlier, children often mix up words containing similar radicals. We actually attempted to design a game challenging children to compose
134
Yeo
valid characters from some radicals given. The game was not included in the
end because a library of radicals would require a much bigger space and it
would be hard to maintain a reasonable search-time involved. But the idea to
work with radicals should not be abandoned altogether.
Future work is also required in the design of a Chinese dictionary database,
incorporating attributes essential for language learning. Different games can
then use the same database. The schema and data structures devised can be
independent of the representation codes of the Chinese system. Hence, in a
special sense, the authoring system of the games can be portable, too.
It is our ambition to provide a wide enough variety of games to satisfy all
tastes and abilities. Behind the ambition is our strong desire to help Singapore
children learn the Chinese language.
Acknowledgements
Dr. Lua K.T., the Chinese computing expert in the Department of Information
Systems and Computer Science, National University of Singapore, has contributed a great deal towards the project as well as this paper.
References
Baltra A (1990) Language learning through computer adventure games. Simulation &
Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 21(4):445-450
Chen A, Chen Z (1987) Methodology of Chinese character coding and symbols for
shape-representation of Chinese characters (in Chinese). Computer Research and
Development 24(1):20-38
Jones C, Fortescue S (1987) Using computers in the language classroom. Longman,
London
Lua KT, Gan KW, Wong YW (1990) Asian language processing. Information Technology 3(2):65-77
Gee Kin Yeo has been responsible for developing MAGNUS, a management game, for many years in the National University of Singaore.
Graduated with mathematics honors from Singapore, she did postgraduate
work at the University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. She is a senior
lecturer in the Department of Information Systems and Computer Science
and has been teaching courses in operations research and decision-support
systems. A member of the ACM, the Computer Society of IEEE, and the
International Association of Statistical Computing, her current research
interests include model management in decision-support systems and computers in education. She is a member of the Editorial Board of Simulation &
Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research. She is
married with three children, with whom she enjoys solving mathematical
puzzles.
Simulation/Gaming for Language Learning
in China
Zhipu Qiu 1 and Joanne Velan Dunn 2
Abstract. This paper reviews research on simulation/games development at Nanjing
University, China. The research responded to the need for culturally-based, interactive
learning situations which would motivate foreign students to use the Chinese language
in different situations with different media. The presentation at ISAGA included a
videotaped demonstration as well as descriptions of games and simulations for foreign
language communication (Chinese). Included in this paper are design considerations
and descriptions of computer, video, and manipulative simulation/games for elementary
and advanced students, and international business majors studying Chinese as a foreign
language.
Key words business; Chinese; communication; cross-cultural; foreign language; gaming; multi-disciplinary; simulation;
Since 1985, simulation and gaming approaches for teaching Chinese as a
second language gained research attention at Nanjing University, China, as an
important method for teaching Chinese. Research centered on designing more
interactive, efficient, and true-to-life methods for encouraging students of
Chinese to use the language in situations which are realistic and meaningful.
In addition, the use of multimedia technology extended the possibilities of
offering the learner an even broader arena for communication and cultural
experience.
Research integrating simulation and games with multimedia to teach Chinese
as a foreign or second language is innovative for China. Generally speaking,
simulation and games are considered of little importance for instruction. The
Chinese usually associate games with children or sports. Games for teaching
language have not been highly regard.ed and little has been reported and
researched in the use of simulation for teaching Chinese.
1 Department
of Chinese Language and Literature, Nanjing University, Jiangsu
Province, Nanjing, People's Republic of China 210008; phone 86-25-634651 ex. 3393
2 Department of Instructional Communications, Community College of Allegheny
County, Allegheny Campus, 808 Ridge Ave. M-523 Pittsburgh, PA 15212-6097 US;
phones 412-237-2628 (w) 412-922-5159 (h); facsimile 412-922-5159
135
136
Qiu and Dunn
The interest in simulation/gaming techniques was stimulated by the influx of
foreign students wishing to study Chinese and by the realization that the
traditional, structured approach alone (including memorization and pattern
drills) may not be enjoyable and effective with foreign students. This presentation outlined the research at Nanjing University and described the involvement
with simulation and games as an effective method for allowing students on a
number of levels and disciplines to become familiar with and communicate in
Chinese.
Design Considerations
Simulations for language offer the following possibilities for elementary and
advanced learners:
At the beginning levels, simulation/games:
- Promote familiarity with the language-pronunciation, structure, and
meaning of the written character
- Offer the opportunity to explore the language in a non-threatening situation, so students develop concepts about, and skills in using, the language
- Allow play within a cultrual setting, making the language relevant and
dynamic
On more advanced levels, simulation/games:
- Allow students to draw on interpersonal and problem-solving skills from
their own experiences
- Help students fine-tune communication strategies
- Offer practice in functioning appropriately within authentic cultural
situations.
For example, in 1984, a simple computer program was developed at the
Applied Linguistics Center at Nanjing University to familiarize the elementary
student with simple Chinese characters. More recently, SINOPHONE, developed in 1989, includes video role-plays and simulations. The role-play situations encourage the modeling of appropriate language behavior. Simulations,
however, allow more flexibility in communication where the learners draw on
their own language strategies and problem solving abilities within a specific
cultural context.
In designing the simulation/games for second language learning, the following points were considered:
-
-
The use of the simulation/game for facilitating skill- getting and skill- using.
Skill-getting activities must also be pseudo-communication (Rivers and
Temperly 1978)
The role that simulation/games playas an important part of the process
involved in the practice of pseudo-communication
The use of appropriate instructional media to enhance, make more realistic,
and individualize knowledge practice
Simulation/Gaming for Language Learning in China
-
137
The identification of the learner's goals, skills, and strategies which affect
their success
The identification of the problems to be presented, as well as appropriate
strategies and formats
-
Descriptions of Simulation/Games Developed at
Nanjing University
CHINESE CHARACTER PUZZLES
These puzzles were created in 1984 to introduce some of the basic concepts of
Chinese writing. The puzzles were one of the first attempts in China to use the
computer as a tutor for language training. Because many of the Chinese
characters are made up of pictograms, and ideograms not unlike computer
icons, the computer seemed a natural choice for developing a pilot project on
the recognition of Chinese characters.
Unlike English words, which are based on phonetic symbols and the formation of sound patterns, many Chinese characters graphically represent
the words or concepts they are communicating. For example, the Chinese
character for "man" is writtenA. It resembles the figure of a man)... The
ancient character for sun was written <:> and then gradually simplified and
squared off, changing its shape to EJ. It is easy to guess the meaning of many
characters and have some fun doing it. So after a short introduction, learners
are asked to select ten basic characters one by one from a menu and then to
choose a meaning which most closely resembles the character. If they choose
an incorrect response, they are given a clue consisting of the ancient or original
pictograph of that character. They are then given another chance to select a
meaning.
FINDING THE WAY
This simulation using more complex Chinese characters was designed to help
students recognize signs on buildings and in public places in China. The
participants are shown eight characters and their English equivalents.
~
d1~
-$~
~
.yt;
telephone
~
post office
fr
t;4
dian hua
youju
bank
yin hang
hotel
fandian
book store
shudian
department store
evt'A~
baihuo gongsi
~ ){tj
PJf
men's room
-*Jij
P1
women's room
nan cesuo
nu cesuo
After the students have seen the signs they are asked to look at a city map on
the next screen. First the cursor moves by itself from place to place, revealing
the Chinese name of each place where it stops.
138
Qiu and Dunn
L -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
~
I*
(cursor)
Then students use keys or a mouse to move the cursor by themselves in
response to questions like: "Can you find where to go to change money?" On
the next screen a new map appears and the places are in different positions.
In 1985, this program was presented to participants in the US and China and
was found effective in helping the beginner to recognize the concept of Chinese
characters as well as sparking their interest in the written language.
DRAGON BONES
This is a game for elementary students that was designed to help them have fun
and feel comfortable using basic Chinese conversational patterns. DRAGON
BONES is composed of 36 dice-like cubes coded in seven colors which display
more than 200 key words and phrases. Approximately ten of the selected
Chinese patterns closely resemble English language structures. This design
strategy was selected to facilitate learning for English speakers.
For example:
[IJ
[[]
Wo
kt
I
He
[IJ
I
kn
movie
.'tlf.,-
I
dl.anYl.ng
sees
at "-
Wo
zuotian
I
yesterday
-1~
dianying
see
I
Ta
~
I
~
movie
d .~-t:(
l.anYl.ng
saw
movie
In Chinese kan is a verb that means to see. In English there are many forms of
the verb to see (see, saw, seen, sees, has seen, etc.) but there is only one form
kan used in Chinese for every tense, case, person, and gender. Another
Simulation/Gaming for Language Learning in China
139
example is the use of pronouns. In English the pronoun forms change, but in
Chinese wo (lor me), ni (you), and ta (he and she) are always the same form
in spoken and written Chinese. With this in mind, the primary colors (red,
blue, yellow) are used for dice containing nouns, noun phrases, and pronouns.
[!] [!]
Wo
a~
love
I
1~
Ni
You
~
I
n~
you
[!]
[!]
love
me
a~
[!]
a~
She
Ii~ I
loves
wo
I~ I
ta
him
The secondary colors, purple and green, are used for adjectives, adverbs, and
adverbial phrases. Two white dice contain 12 functional words and an orange
one contains the most useful daily expressions. There are 36 dice in all and
these are divided into ten learning stages. They may be used individually or
with others and in teams. Highly motivated students may be able to master all
stages in about 25 h while using a participant's manual and an audio cassette.
CHINESE LINKING-LEARNING CUBES
The uniqueness of the Chinese characters, and Japanese kanji as well, offer
many possibilities for interesting simulation/game design. CHINESE
LINKING-LEARNING CUBES are one design where different character
parts can be combined to form new words. The CUBES are a series of
rectangular blocks made up of eight small separate dice-like cubes containing
printed characters on each of the sides. These cubes are linked in such a way as
to allow the students to manipulate the connected cubes to form new words.
About 20 different characters may be formed using each block.
140
Qiu and Dunn
The concept of Chinese character formation has remained the same from
ancient times to the present. Most Chinese characters are made up of two
parts: the radical which connotes the meaning, and the sound part which
connotes the pronunciation. The five elements (gold (metal), wood, water, fire,
and earth) form the basic radicals used in Chinese writing. Normally the
radicals are placed either on top or on the left side of a character. The radicals
for rain, grass, bamboo, and so on are usually placed on top, water, wood, fire,
and so on are often placed on the left. With this concept in mind, radicals and
sound parts are linked together in such a way that 15 rectangular blocks may
generate 300 characters. Used along with different game designs, the instructional goal is to increase motivation and thinking skills. This manipulative
game was received with great interest by ISAGA participants because it presented the concepts quickly and allowed the audience to manipulate the
characters themselves.
SINOPHONE
This simulation and its scenarios were designed to assist the participants to
explore the organizational culture and climate of a Chinese and an American
company and to analyze the management styles of each. The goals of the
simulation are:
-
To explore different negotiation and management styles
To present interactive models which allow students to analyze cross-cultural
consensus and decision-making
To "partieipate" in the communication process in a second language
(Chinese)
SINOPHONE is a series of scenarios in videotape format which present culturally based background information for use in negotiation training. The
scenarios accompany "What to Say and How to Say It" (Qiu 1990), a text for
students of advanced Chinese designed to familiarize the readers with the
proper use of expressions, not only in everday situations but in more complex
ones, such as correct ways to praise, complain, criticize, discuss art, religion,
war, marriage, and business negotiations. The book evaluation gave rise to a
need for developing video scenarios combining true-to-life cultural situations
and new language material into scenes to be used as models for illustrating the
correct communication techniques. In addition, the scenes provide a starting
point for students to begin interacting among themselves.
The scenarios may be open ended situations, first showing how to interact
and then offering a problem or conflict for further continuation. The instructor
functions as a facilitator, mainly to keep the simulation running smoothly.
Decisions are made by the participants and are predetermined by the amount
of resources available.
The following is an example of a cross-cultural negotiation simulation where
two countries are involved in forming a joint venture. The original material is
in Chinese (Qiu 1990).
Simulation/Gaming for Language Learning in China
141
-
Description of the scenario. A Chinese computer company is negotiating
with a large American computer company to establish a joint venture in
Shanghai. The problems:
a. Representatives from the American company are dissatisfied with the
location for the future site of the company. They feel that is too far from
the city center and the investment climate is not what was expected.
They hope there is a possibility for a municipality near Shanghai to
provide a location closer to the center of the city.
b. How can the investment climate be improved? For example, how to cut
through the red tape and formalities, how to improve conditions for
transportation, and how to simplify customs procedures. Given a map
and a video scenario, both sides announce their position and begin the
discussion.
- New expressions for use in the situation. The expressions provided include
those for making agreements, disagreeing, arguing, making excuses, and
making assumptions.
- Videotape scenario. The scenario is of an informal meeting held at a
Chinese computer company.
- Activities involving participants. These include reading relevant articles and
textbooks, making notes and summarizing points, preparing questions,
answering the questions posed in the videotape, reporting main points to
the team at meetings, and preparing new rounds for negotiation.
It was found that this type of video scenario for business/advanced language
and situational practice is effective in improving communication and thinking
skills.
Conclusion
Participants at ISAGA were enthusiastic about the simple and interesting
way in which the Chinese games and simulations clarified basic concepts and
presented cultural situations. It was surprising that the materials demonstrated
were received with interest both by those who had little knowledge of Chinese
and by those who were familiar with the language.
It must be kept in mind that the uniqueness of each language, the level of
instruction, and the content objectives pose both advantages and constraints in
simulation/game development. But, there is no doubt about the value of
simulation/games as a communication and learning tool for foreign language
and cross-cultural instruction. (For further discussion, see Crookall and Oxford
1990). These kinds of studies and simulation/game use and development are
just beginning in China. We shall continue to develop simulation/games to
improve not only language skills but also cross-cultural understanding.
Acknowledgments
Domo, Domo, Domo! We wish to thank the ISAGA organizers, especially
Professor Kiyoshi Arai, for helping with the international arrangements and
142
Qiu and Dunn
all the supporters of the conference. Without your help we could not have
attended.
References
Crookall D, Oxford R (eds) (1990) Simulation, gaming, and language learning.
Newburg House/Heinle & Heinle, Boston
Qiu, Zhipu (1990) What to say and how to say it. Nanjing University, China
Rivers WM, Temperley M (1978) A practical guide to the teaching of English as a
second or foreign language. Oxford University Press, Oxfrod, UK
Qiu Zhipu is one of the few professors in China researching and developing
simulation games. He was a Fulbright scholar at the University of Pittsburgh
1981-82, visiting Research Professor at Middlebury College Vermont,
and Exchange Professor at Oberlin College, Ohio. He is Professor of
Linguistics, Director of Research of Applied Linguistics at Nanjing University and Professor-in-Charge of the Chinese programs at Nanjing/Johns
Hopkins Center (1986-88). In 1984 he was elected one of the top 25 teachers
of Chinese by the Chinese Ministry of Education. He received a Chinese
National Science Foundation Award for writing the first dictionary covering
the lexical differences between Mainland China and Taiwan. In the last 10
years he has published nine books. He is a violin maker, writer, photographer, inventor and cultural expert.
Joanne Velan Dunn, Instructional Designer, has been involved with game
design since graduate school when she was a conference organizer for
ISAGA in 1974 in Pittsburgh. She has worked in China as a consultant over
the past 9 years. She received the Norman Linck Award for outstanding
contributions to the field of Educational Communications and Technology
and the AECT award for building American/Chinese relations. She is an
artist and interested in visual and creative thinking.
Training International Commercial
Negotiators Through Simulation
Jose Pavis 1
Abstract. International trade is spreading fast in every corner of the world. Face-to-face,
personal communication between individuals from divergent cultural backgrounds,
using different communicative styles, is now a very common phenomenon. How much
potential exchange of goods and services is lost due to miscommunication with the other
trading partner? A great deal. We need to develop the human resources required
to conduct successful negotiations with people from foreign cultures. A negotiation
simulation (the CROSS-CULTURAL NEGOTIATING GAME) with export managers
from Australia, Saudi Arabia, France, China, and Brazil was designed with the dual
purpose of (1) yielding data as close as possible to "real" cross-cultural business
negotiation discourse lending itself to systematic analysis and (2) providing material for
training future export managers in "the art" of negotiating cross-culturally.
Key words communicative styles; cross-cultural communication; intercultural effectiveness; negotiations; simulation
What happens when a Japanese interacts verbally and non-verbally with an
American, a Korean, or a Zimbabwean? How likely are they to understand
(or misunderstand) each other if they do not take their different cultural
backgrounds into account? What goes on when on the streets of Windoek,
Namibia, a herero woman tries to sell a carved soapstone to a passing Japanese
tourist? What goes on when a team of high-powered US executives negotiate
the sale of aircraft equipment to members of a Chinese trade commission in
Shanghai? It would be very valuable to observe and record "live" authentic
interactions of this kind, but for obvious reasons this is not possible. Simulating
such situations with authentic cross-cultural participants is the best alternative.
In this article, I will report on some findings about cross-cultural commercial
negotiations which export managers from Australia, China, France, Saudi
Arabia, and Brazil carried out in front of three video cameras. The simulation
which I designed (the CROSS-CULTURAL NEGOTIATION SIMULATION)
was aimed primarily at providing me with data relevant to the study of com1 Department of French Studies, Sydney University, Sydney, NSW 2006 Australia;
phones 2 692 2381 (w) 2 665 0712 (h); facsimile 2 692 4757 (w) 2 664 2018 (h)
143
144
Pavis
Cross-cultural
businesS' ne,gotiations
(by professional international negotiators)
10
1
8
• Anintercultuml
communicative
event
Designing simulation exeICises
(for trainees)
3
6
~hanlysiS
(linguistics Idiscourse
4
analysis, questionnaile t--"Researchfindings
to participantsjetc.)
5
1--"
ExeICises forfuture
cross-cul11lra1
:rnmg'
tiation
Fig. 1. Overview of the simulation project
mercial negotiations, and subsequently analyzed as an intercultural communicative event (Steps 1-4 in Fig. 1).
Some Definitions
It is important to have a conceptual grasp of the situation which brings com-
mercial negotiators together. Let us examine how some key words are defined.
NegotiatinglBargaining
The following are the minimal features defining a negotiating/bargaining relationship: (1) Two or more parties are involved, (2) there must be a conflict of
interest between the two parties, (3) parties are joined together in a voluntary
relationship (they can push for several possible agreements; they always have
the option to leave the relationship), (4) the activity is aimed at finding an
agreement to the issue(s), and (5) it involves the exchange of offers and
counter-offers in a sequential (not simultaneous) manner.
Negotiating can be seen as a game-a conversational game. The above
statements constitute the rules of the game. These rules are universal and
Training International Commercial Negotiators
145
CROSS-CULTIJRAL
NEGOTIATION PROC ESS
SOME CULTURAL VARIABLES AFFEC TING
NEGOTIATION OUTCOMES
Socio-cognitive p-I'Ocesses
(Information processing, episode representation,
conflict management styles, face-saving orientation
intergroup pelCeption, power distance, etc.)
Communicative and negotiati!lgLtY.1es
(Persuasive strategies, high '15. low contextcu11ures,
directness Vs. indirectness, bidding strategies, etc)
Fig. 2. Some cultural dimensions affecting the negotiating process
cannot be broken. But, as we shall see, in the actual conduct of cross-cultural
negotiations, variability rules outnumber these few fixed, rigid rules. Four sets
of variables can be said to influence the outcome of a negotiation: (1) the
structural context within which bargaining occurs, (2) the behavioral predispositions of the parties involved, (3) the nature and underlying characteristics of the bargainers' interdependence, and (4) the use of social influence
and influence strategies in bargaining. For each of these dimensions, "cultural
variabilities" will have to be taken into account; negotiators from Australia and
Saudi Arabia for instance, have a different mental representation of what is
appropriate bargaining behavior. Each bargaining relationship can be characterized by a specific power relationship. This is true for any negotiation context, but "power distance," individual relations to power, "face-saving" and
"face-threatening" strategies-in other words "conflict styles"-vary according
to cultures. As Ting-Toomey (1988) writes:
While face is a transcultural concept that governs the active negotiation
processes in all cultures, the nuances and subtleties that attach to different facets of "face work management" vary from one culture to the
next.
146
Pavis
The name of the "bargaining game" is to convince the other party to agree
with one's views in order to buy or sell something, but, as Marsh (1988) warns:
"There is no place in international negotiations for the John Wayne, shootfrom-the-hip, "wing-it" bargainer. Even the concept of "bargaining effectiveness" has to be interpreted in a "cultural context." Figure 2 shows some of the
cultural dimensions affecting the process of negotiating.
Intercultural Communication
Gudykunst et al. (1988) claim that intercultural communication studies try to
answer: (1) What is the influence of culture on interpersonal communication?
(2) What is the role of communication and culture in the development of
interpersonal relationships? Both questions are relevant to the study of crosscultural business communication, which is just one specific instance of an
intercultural communicative event. Kim (1984) states that "intercultural communication" refers to the "communication phenomena in which participants,
different in cultural backgrounds, come into direct contact with one another."
The focal point of intercultural communication is not the participants but
the communication processes between individuals. Her current work on
"synchronicity" is aimed at looking at what happens during un/successful
intercultural communication instances. She mentions three main dimensions
along which inter-cultural communication should be examined: (1) the level of
cultural group membership (world regions, national cultures, ethnic-racial
groups, etc.), (2) the social context (immigrant acculturation, businessorganizational contacts, etc.) and (3) the communication channel (interpersonal, media, etc.) (Kim 1984). Nishida (1985) offers the following definition of intercultural communication competence: "The ability to speak a foreign
language in an \lppropriate manner and to demostrate a knowledge of appropriate communicative behavior in a given situation in order to interact effectively
with people from different cultures" (my italics). This tacit knowledge of
appropriateness in the use of language is something that we tend to take for
granted in the use of our native languages; it is something which comes close to
defining the concept of communication style.
Culturally Determined Communicative Styles
Cultures differ to the extent that they create unique forms of human interaction. In addition to providing the rules, schemas, scripts, and values used in
communication, cultures-at a very basic level-define the logic of communication itself. Studying the communicative styles favored by various cultures is a prerequisite to the study of intercultural communication. It implies
asking: (1) What goals of action are most valued by the culture? (2) What type
of communicative strategies are deemed most appropriate for the accomplishment of particular goals? (3) What is the impact of culture on communication?
(4) How can we define communication as a set of constraints imposed by
cultural rules? According to Gudykunst et al. (1988): "Children do not learn
language per se; rather, they learn the various patterns and styles of language
Training International Commercial Negotiators
147
(Al CULTURAL VARIABLFJ) [Affec1ing (C )]
I
( - conflicting styles,
- face saving strategies
- communicative styles,
- level of inten:u1turainess,
- etc. )
I
I
I
~
PARTICIPANTS
of the cross-cultural
COlIlIIElCiai negotiation
(6) PREDICTIONS ON OUTCOME [from (All
+
SIMULATION PERFORMED
(by AustIalian and
non-Ausll1l1ian negotiators l
""
(C) NEGOTIATION OUTCOME[to be compared vith (B II
Fig. 3. Goals of the simulation. 1. The simulation was used as a heuristic device to find
culture-specific bargaining strategies. 2. It was expected that the following questions would be raised: (a) What kind of communication processes went on during the
simulation? (b) What were the participants' mutual perceptions of attitudes, motives,
purposes, and feelings? (c) How can we contrast the cultural characteristics of the
participants? (d) Which cultural variables affected the outcome of negotiations? (e)
How can we set these features against established and normative characteristics of
action seen from the perspective of both participants, evaluated against both communities? (f) What was perceived to count as good, effective behavior by the participants? Questions (b) and (f) were investigated through the feedback obtained by
questionnaires filled out by the participants, questions (a), (c), (d), and (e) were
investigated through my own external analysis. I can only give a brief overview of some
of my findings in this paper
interaction that enable them to function as competent communicators in different situational contexts." Nomura and Barnlundt (1983) write: "In learning
to interact with others, the child acquires more than vocabulary and grammar;
s/he acquires values assumptions that are implicit in these patterns of inter-
148
Pavis
action and that regulate meanings within a particular social system." In other
words, the child is acquiring a culturally determined communicative style.
Culture is manifested in individuals' communicative patterns. This intersubjective commonality of individuals' communication patterns is what characterizes a culture as a collective entity. Hall (1976) differentiates cultures on the
basis of the communication that predominates in the culture. A "high-context"
communication is one in which "most of the information is either in the
physical context or internalized in the person, while very little is encoded in the
explicit, transmitted part of the message." A "low-context" communication is
one in which "the mass of the information is vested in the explicit code."
THE CROSS-CULTURAL NEGOTIATION
SIMULATION
Simulation Design
My first concern in designing the CROSS-CULTURAL NEGOTIATING
GAME was to isolate and observe the cultural variables involved in this
specific type of verbal interaction. Figure 3 illustrates this perspective.
The Script
A few days before the simulation took place, each participant in the negotiation was given an "identity card" and a set of rules. Table 1 provides two
examples. Each participant had some information about his/her pay-off table,
but none about the other party's. For instance, the Australian negotiator had
the information given in Table 2.
The Participants
The participants in the CROSS-CULTURAL NEGOTIATION GAME were
experienced business people (export managers and general managers of companies involved in international trade in the "real world"). Four dyadic groups
were set up: 1st Australian/French, 2nd Australian/Brazilian, 3rd Australian/
Saudi Arabian, 4th Australian/Chinese. Table 3 provides further biographical
information about them.
Some Findings
Testing the validity of the script was the first goal. In so far as it allowed the
four dyadic groups to come quickly to the point of their encounter, that is, to
sell, buy, trade, discuss contracts, and bargain, the script proved successful.
Even though they all stemmed from quasi-identical scenarios, all four negotiations yielded quite different results, as Table 4 shows.
Faced with the heterogeneity of these results, the first question to be asked is
whether we are dealing with individual variations or "culturally determined"
differences. To try to answer this question, I chose to work at two levels: (a)
Training International Commercial Negotiators
149
Table 1. Two examples of identity cards
Saudi Arabian negotiator
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Your name is Maroon Tajer
Your trading partner's name is John Tradewell
You work for a company importing and exporting food products all over the world
You want to import Vegemite a from Australia
You have heard there is a good potential market for it in this part of the world
You are hoping to negotiate and sign a "packaged deal" contract
However, three items must be agreed on before such a contract can be signed:
a. The renewal of an export contract of Saudi dates (due to expire in 6 months)
b. The Vegemite deal
c. Setting up a feasibility study for a lO-year joint venture concerning the
manufacturing of honey
• A contract can be signed only if all of the above are settled
• Each of the issues represents a specific value for your company (see your "payoff"
table, below)
• These values may be completely different from those of the other party
Australian negotiator
Your name is John Tradewell
Your trading partner's name is Maroon Tajer
You work for a company exporting and importing food products all over the world
You want to export Vegemite to the Middle East
You have heard there is a good potential market for it in this part of the world
You are hoping to negotiate and sign a "packaged deal" contract
However, three items must be agreed on before such a contract can be signed:
a. The renewal of an import contract of Saudi dates (due to expire in 6 months)
b. The Vegemite deal
c. Establishing a feasibility study for a lO-year joint venture concerning the
manufacturing of honey
• A contract can be signed only if all of the above are settled
• Each of the issues represents a specific value for your company (See your "payoff"
table below)
• These values may be completely different from those of the other party
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Vegemite is a yeast-extract spread used by practically all Australian familes. It is a very
"culturally-marked" product (Pavis 1991)
a
self-analysis by participants (questionnaires and debriefing) and (b) external
analysis.
Debriefing and Questionnaires
I had two ways of getting information from the participants themselves: (1) a
first post-session questionnaire filled out immediately after the simulation, and
(2) a second (more detailed) post-session questionnaire filled out 1 month
later, after having watched the video replay of the interaction Some of the
salient findings that came out from the first source of enquiry are given in the
Appendix. This type of data is very useful for initiating discussion amongst
trainees (steps 5 and 6 in Fig. 1).
150
Pavis
Table 2. The pay-off table of the Australian negotiator
A = Renewal of the contract (due to expire in 6 months)
B = The Vegemite deal
C = Accepting involvement in research for the feasibility study on a possible joint
venture.
Australian negotiator
Non-Australian negotiator
B
c
ABC
A
By not renewing, you lose
If no agreement
to export
Vegemite is
made, you
lose
If no agreement
to do the
feasibility
study is made,
you win
?
?
?
100 pts
700 pts
Profit you make
if you export
over
= Opt 1 year = 750 pts
= Opt 2 years = 670 pts
= 30 pts 3 years = 590 pts
= 400 pts 4 years = 40 pts
= 700 pts 5 years = Opt
300 pts
Profit if you
renew for
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years
Table 3. Some biographical information about the participants
Biographical information
• Name ................................................................... .
• Nationality ... 4 Australians, 4 non-Australians (1 French, 1 Brazilian, 1 Saudi
Arabian, 1 Chinese)
• Name of the company you work for .......................................... .
• Position held 4 = export managers
4 = managing directors involved in international business
• Number of years of experience in international trade: 3,4, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 22 years
• With which countries do you have most experience?
Brazil/Portugal (1), South-East Asia (4), Middle East (2), China, US (2), Europe (2)
• In which country do you find it particularly difficult to negotiate?
Italy, Japan (2), Asia, China, Turkey, Australia, "All different"
• Why?
(1) Reluctance to compromise, acknowledge shortcomings (in Japan), (2) different in
commercial cultures (Asia), (3) high cost, (4) not interested/ignorance of world
markets (Australia), (5) culture and language (China), (6) very tough negotiators (in
Turkey), (7) you have to be very cautious not to offend people (in Japan), (8)
contracts never seem to mean too much (in Italy)
External Analysis
The data consisted of four dyadic negotiatIOn interactions of 45 min each,
recorded on videotape. This yielded a very large amount of material. For the
purpose of this paper, I will concentrate only on one aspect of the communica-
Table 4. Overview of the negotiation processes
3rd Australian
Saudi Arabian
2nd Australian
Brazilian
1st Australian
French
4th Australian
Chinese
Negotiating one item at
a time?
Yes
Yes
No
No
Sequence of issues
discussed
1. Renewal
2. Vegemite
3. Feasibility study
1. Renewal
2. Vegemite
3. Feasibility study
1. Renewal
2. Vegemite
3. Feasibility study
4. Renewal
5. Vegemite
6. Renewal
7. Feasibility study
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Renewal
Vegemite
Feasibility study
Vegemite
Feasibility study
::;l
."
S·
~.
~
~
~
Renewal = 10%
Vegemite = 55%
Feasibility study = 30%
Renewal = 33%
Vegemite = 33%
Feasibility study = 22%
Renewal = 11 %
Vegemite = 39%
Feasibility study = 44%
Renewal = 15%
Vegemite = 32%
Feasibility study = 38%
Bidding early?
No (long discussion
before bidding)
Yes (almost straight
away by Brazilian)
No
No
g
Who does initial
bidding?
Always French (only
once asking the other
party to "make an
offer")
Always Brazilian
Always Saudi (unless asking
the other party to "make
an offer")
Always Australian
'"~
Percentage of time
spent on each issue
."
S'
;::
!'2..
~
~
~
[
~
g,
0'
2:l
....
....
Vl
152
Pavis
Table 5. Bidding pattern in two negotiation interactions: General comments
Australian/French
Australian/Saudi Arabian
- Long discussion before first
- Fast pace, not getting stuck on one issue
bidding
- Trade-off always on Saudi negotiator's mind
- Bidding mixed with lengthy
- Cyclic pattern of items discussed
arguments to convince
- Pace set by Saudi Arabian
other party
- "Head-on collision," polite but
quite confrontational; no one
seems to be prepared to give in
- "Yeah but" type of discussion
- Not too many figures used
Table 6. Concessions made in two negotiation interactions
French/Australian
Saudi Arabian/Australian
Renewal contract
Renewal contract
French
No initial bid
Saudi Arabian Initial bid = 1 year
Final agreement = 5 years
Final agreement = 2 years
Australian Initial = 5 years
Australian
Initial bid = 4 years
Final agreement = 5 years
Final agreement = 2 years
Vegemite
Vegemite
French
Initial bid = 617 years
Saudi Arabian Initial bid = 5 years
Final agreement = 5 years
Final agreement = 3 years
Australian No initial bid
Initial bid = 1 year
Australian
Final agreement = 5 years
Final agreement = 3 years
tive event: the bidding strategies used by the negotiators (first offer, second
offer, size of initial concession, who starts the bidding, when (early or after
getting some information from the other party), what sort of counter-bidding
follows, being ambitious, "bluff" bidding, strategies used to accept or refuse
the other party's biddings). Let us contrast two bidding patterns in two sets of
negotiations. Tables 5 and 6 contrast the French/Austrailan dyad and the Saudi
Arabian/Australian dyad.
Overall Progression of the Bidding Interaction
Tables 7 and 8 provide an outline of the content analysis of the bidding
interaction. It is clear that the participants of both dyads resorted to very
different strategies. Both the French and the Saudi negotiators managed to
impose their negotiating styles summed up in the section "general comments"
above.
Obviously, viewing the video of the actual bargaining interaction would
make this contrastive analysis more meaningful. But the main point to be made
here is that different strategies were used by each of the participants. In
the post-session questionnaire, the Saudi negotiator confirmed that he was
deliberately using a bargaining strategy very much favored by Saudi businessmen. According to him shifting the topic, keeping a fast pace of negotiation,
Training International Commercial Negotiators
Table 7• French/Australian bidding pattern
Bidding pattern
1. Renewal contract
Initial general discussion ("for" vs "against" long
contract)
Initial bid
by Australian
for
Suggests moving to second item
Reaction of
French
2. Vegemite
Initial bid
Reaction of
Australian
Second bid
Reaction of
Australian
Third bid
Reaction of
Australian
Reaction of
French
Mutual
agreement
5 years
by
for
by
for
by
for
French
6/7 years
Argues to shorten
French
5 years at least
Argues to shorten
French
trade-off
Counterbid
Accepts trade-off principle but
for a shorter period of time
Argues not to shorten
Lengthy discussion
Australian gives in
Agrees to 5 years for both
issues
153
Comments
= Observation round
French asked Australian to
make an offer
She answers the question:
"How many years"
Australian's bidding =
information collecting for
French (?)
No counter-bidding
Starts high
Long discussion
No counter-bidding
Long discussion
We renew the mineral water if
you accept 5 years for
vegemite
Non-explicit counterbid
No precise time given
"I suppose we could talk all
afternoon about this"
slightly confusing the negotiating partner are all part of the favorite Saudi ploys
when it comes to discussing business transactions. By contrast, the French
negotiator was making genuine efforts to convince his trading partner about
the universal validity of his arguments. He went as far as drawing the profit
curve that the Australian company would make if only his trading partner
could agree to his plan. His cartesian style of negotiation was at work.
A lot can be learned from analyzing such strategies in detail. Debriefing this
interaction with potential commercial negotiators can be a useful way of developing one's "intercultural effectiveness." Analysis of bidding strategies is only
one of the areas of communication strategies that deserves attention. The
following issues would be expected to come up: (1) cross-cultural pragmatic
contrastive analysis of speech acts typical of a negotiation setting (requesting,
asking questions, refusing, accepting, etc.), (2) content analysis of the argument used to encourage or discourage the buying or selling of a specific
154
Pavis
Table 8. Saudi Arabian/Australian bidding pattern
Bidding pattern
1. Renewal contract (1)
Initial bid
by Saudi Arabian
for 1 year
Counter-bid by Australian
for 4 years
Let's put it aside
Reaction of
Let's discuss your other points
Saudi
Arabian
2. Vegemite (1)
Initial bid
by
for
Reaction of
Australian
Reaction of
Saudi
Arabian
Saudi Arabian
5 years
No counter-bid
Says what he could do to help
with promotion
"Well, let's look at it, maybe
we can make some money,
we can compensate the dates
for you ( ... ) Any other
subject you would like to
discuss?"
3. Honey/Feasibility Study (1)
Initial bid
by Saudi Arabian
for 10 years
Reaction of
Australian
Second bid
by
Reaction of
Australian
We'd like to know a little bit
more ( ... )
"I'd like to ask you a few
questions"
Saudi Arabian = "Be our
agent"
Let's look at global contract
Comments
"The only thing I can do for
you ... "
Not getting stuck in this issue.
Leaves it open for later
negotiation ("if we can
get ... we might negotiate").
Bidding to test the ground
This follows a long exchange of
information
Non-confrontational
Indirectness
Same strategy: trade-off
Non-confrontational
Keeping the negotiation
flowing, changing the issue
Assertive. Asks for counter-bid
("How do you feel your
company can co-operate with
us in this field?")
Non-confrontational
Indirectness, argues to
postpone
Subtle, indirect refusal
Continued
product, (3) strategies used not to lose face in front of the other negotiator,
and (4) levels of self-disclosure among participants.
Conclusion
I have shown one example of difference in negotiating styles that can be
attributed to different cultural backgrounds of the participants. The study
involved in this paper concentrated exclusively on steps 1, 2, 3, and 4 of Fig. 1.
Training future export managers and negotiators would constitute the obvious
next step. After having observed with the trainees how the simulation was
Training International Commercial Negotiators
Table 8. Continued
Bidding pattern
Comments
4. Renewal contract (2)
Initial bid
by Australian
for 4 years (2 years at same price)
Counter-bid by Saudi Arabian
for 1st year = same price 2nd year
= +5%
Reaction of
Australian
"Are we able to clinch a 4-year
deal with a negotiated
price?"
"That's fair" ... Shall we move
to Vegemite?"
Reaction of
Saudi
Arabian
5. Vegemite 2
Initial bid
by
for
Reaction of
Saudi
Arabian
Counter-bid
Reaction of
Australian
155
Australian
1 year initially (Then long term
contract)
"No way. No way, because
John .... ( ... ) John, that
doesn't suit us ... "
by Saudi Arabian
for Minimum of 3 years up to 5
years
"OK, let's go back and look at
the position we are in at the
moment"
"This is the best I can do"
( ... ) "You have to
understand my position"
"You have to give some, I
have to give some"
Not too sure what is going on
Not clear about what has been
agreed on
As in previous "round"
Tries to have a global
agreement
Long joint summary and
agreement elaborated
together
conducted by negotiators from different cultural backgrounds, it would make
sense to prepare them for face-to-face negotiations with people using different
communicative and bargaining strategies. Making use of games and simulation
exercises would undoubtedly constitute the most efficient way of achieving the
experiential learning required to prepare oneself for the "real world," where
mismanagement of communication can be a very costly matter. The first type
of game would involve imposing different sets of communicative rules on
participants in a cross-cultural negotiation exercise. The variables which could
be manipulated might include: directness vs indirectness, bidding pattens,
knowledge (or ignorance) of rules, and norms of interaction governing commercial negotiations in various cultures. For each variable under scrutiny,
specific games could be designed and played in front of an "observer" whose
comments would be useful during the debriefing phase.
Giving a golden rule about communication in general, Berger (1986) writes:
"When we open our mouth to communicate with other persons, we would be
wise to keep in mind that what we utter to these persons is based upon an
156
Pavis
incomplete understanding of who they are and who we are." This advice is
even more valid when individuals from different cultural backgrounds are
involved in commercial negotiations. Communicators with people from different cultures should also bear in mind Szalay's advice (1981): "The more we
consider our views and experiences to be absolute and universal, the less
prepared we are to deal with people who have different backgrounds, experiences, cultures, and therefore different views of the universe." I am convinced
that the CROSS-CULTURAL NEGOTIATION GAEM can help negotiators
become better inter-cultural communicators and can contribute to developing
what Smith (1987) calls the "five senses"-a sense of self, a sense of the other,
a sense of the relationship between self and other, a sense of setting and
situation, and a sense of goal and objective.
Appendix
General Assessment of the Negotiation Simulation
Assessing your bargaining performance
1. Are you satisfied with the result of the
negotiation? .. . ... . .. . ... . .... ... . ..... .... Yes
2. Did you expect to make more profit than you
actually did? ... . ... .. .. . ... ... . ... . .... .... Yes
3. Did you expect to reach agreement before the
minimal time (45 min)? ...................... Yes
4. Would you say that generally speaking, you were
controlling the process of the negotiations? .... Yes
5. Did you have the feeling that your trading partner
trusted you? . ... . .. . .. . .... . .. . ... . .. .. .... Yes
= 88%, No = 22%
= 50%, No = 50%
= 50%, No = 50%
=
50%, No
=
50%
= 100%, No = 0%
Your general bargaining philosophy: Do you agree with the following statements?
1. The outcome of commercial negotiations depends
more on outside factors than on the negotiators'
skills to agree with each other.. ... . ... .. .. . .. Yes = 25%, No = 63%,
Both = 12%
2. A good bargainer is someone who is concerned
about maximizing the profit s/he has made at the
end of the negotiation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Yes = 25%, No = 75%
3. A successful negotiator is one ending with
distributive justice and equity for the other
party .. " ... . ... . .. ... . . . . . . .. . ... ..... ... Yes = 100%, No = 0%
4. A good bargainer is someone who is concerned
about making a greater profit than his/her trading
partner.. . .. . . . .. . .. . ... . ... ... . . .... ... .. Yes = 25%, No = 75%
5. I was concerned about not hurting the feelings
of the other person ......................... Yes = 62%, No = 37%
6. I was concerned and made some effort so that
my trading partner liked me ................. Yes = 87%, No = 22%
Training International Commercial Negotiators
7. Negotiators in general tend to behave more
cooperatively with negotiators from the same
national background ....................... .
157
Yes = 62%, No = 25%
Possibly = 12%
8. I tend to be more cooperative when I feel my
trading partner is being cooperative .......... . Yes = 100%, No = 0%
9. I am more a risk taker than a cautious
bargainer ................................. . Risk taker = 12%
Cautious bargainer = 75%
In between = 12%
Assessing your trading partner's strategies
1. In your opinion, what was the most important
issue for your trading partner? .............. .
Right guess: Australian = 1,
Non-Australian = 3
Wrong guess: Australian = 3,
Non-Australian = 1
2. Do you think your trading partner knew which
issue was the most important to you? ......... . Yes = 62%, No = 37%
3. Did you think your trading partner had a better
bargaining position than yours? ............. . Yes = 0%, No = 100%
4. Were you satisfied by the concessions your
trading partner was making to your demands? .. Yes = 87%, No = 12%
5. Did you find that your trading partner was
making unrealistic demands on you? ......... . Yes = 0%, No = 100%
Assessing your trading partner
1. As a whole, did you find it difficult and tedious
to negotiate with your trading partner? ....... . Yes = 0%, No = 100%
2. Would you characterize your trading partner's
attitude as cooperative or competitive? ....... . Cooperative = 100%
Competitive = 0%
3. Do you think your trading partner was satisfied
with the result of the negotiation? ........... . Yes = 87%, No = 12%
4. Do you think your trading partner was expecting
to reach agreement before the minimal time
(45mins)? .. , ............................. . Yes = 62%, No = 25%
Don't know = 12%
5. Would you categorize your trading partner as a
risk taker or as a cautious bargainer? ......... . Risk taker = 87%
Cautious bargainer = 0%
In between = 12%
6. Did you ever feel threatened by your trading
partner's bargaining strategies? .............. . Yes = 12%, No = 87%
7. On the whole, did you trust your trading
partner? ................................. . Yes = 100%, No = 0%
8. Were you concerned about keeping your trading
partner's feelings satisfied? ................. . Yes = 62%, No = 25%,
Yes but not totally = 12%
9. Do you assume that how s/he feels is completely
up to him/her? ............................ . Yes = 12%, No = 87%
158
Pavis
Communication problems
1. Did you find trading partner was clear about
communicating his/her position to you? ....... Yes = 100%, No = 0%
2. At times, did you have difficulties understanding
what your trading partner was saying?........ Yes = 0%, No = 100%
3. At times, did you feel your trading partner had
difficulties understanding what you were saying? Yes = 12%, No = 87%
4. Do you think the negotiation would have been
easier with somebody from your own culture? .. Yes = 12%, No = 87%
References
Berger C (1986) Social cognition and intergroup communication. In: Gudykunst W (ed)
Intergroup communication. Edward Arnold, London
Gudykunst W, Kim, Y (1988) Theories in intercultural communication. Sage, Newbury
Park, CA
Gudykunst W, Ting-Toomey S, Chua E (1988) Culture and interpersonal communication. Sage, Beverly Hills
Hall ET (1976) Beyond culture. Double Bay, New York
Kim YY (1984) Communication and cross-cultural adaptation. Multilingual Matters,
Clevedon, A von
Marsh R (1988) The Japanese negotiator. Kodansha International, Tokyo
Nishida H (1985) Japanese intercultural communication competence and cross-cultural
adjustment. International Journal of Intercultural Relations 9:247-270
Nomura N, Barnlundt J (1983) Patterns of interpersonal criticism in Japan and the
United States. International Journal of Intercultural Relations 7:1-18
Pavis (1991) Exporting Vegemite to Venezuela: Marketing or cultural challenge? CrossCulture 3(1)
Smith L (1987) Discourse across cultures. Prentice Hall, London
Szalay L (1981) Intercultural communication: A process model. International Journal of
Intercultural Relations 5:133-146
Ting-Toomey S (1988) Intercultural conflict styles: A face negotiation theory. In: Kim
Y, Gudykunst W (eds) Theories in intercultural communication. Sage, Newbury
Park, CA
Jose Pavis teaches French at Sydney University, Australia. He has previously taught in France, the US, and Southern Africa. He is more and
more convinced that language learning goes hand in hand with developing
awareness of both one's native culture and the target culture. Most of
his publications are related to the field of foreign language pedagogy but
his latest research deals with cross-cultural communication and business
negotiation.
Global Modelling:
A Game-Generating Game
Elizabeth M. Christopherl
Abstract. One method of studying a society is to model some of its processes.
A GLOBAL MODEL GAME (GMG) was constructed for ISAGA '91 to illustrate
similarities and differences between societies. Three critical aspects of social organization were identified in the GMG for comparison and contrast: the laws and norms of a
society, the division of labor in society, and society's assumptions about the nature of
family life and individual goals and aspirations. In the ISAGA'91 workshop, the GMG
was reconstructed into a game-generating game. This paper describes the principles on
which the original model was designed and how workshop members converted it into a
gaming device with potential to provide entertaining and thought-provoking insights
into players' own and others' cultures.
Key words game-generating game; global modelling
The model was designed as a cube (Fig. 1). Its three planes represent respectively "Individual and Family," "Society," and "Work." These were argued by
the designer to be the three essential components of all cultures; and that every
society is essentially unique in the ways in which it shapes individual and family
lives, imposes social norms and values, and divides its labor. The model was
given the tentative title "Building a Global Future: The Model Begins with
Me." The intention was to understand the bases and biases of one's own
culture so one can begin to transcend it in order to enter a more global
mindset.
Each plane of the cube model was then subdivided into four. It can be seen
from Fig. 1 that these divisions create eight small cubes from the big one. The
intention was to identify specific variables: for example, the cube representing
"Marriage and children," "Task," and "Education" might serve to raise questions about the education of women and the position of married women in the
workforce of any given society. This then might become a topic for crosscultural comparison.
1 Charles Sturt University, School of Business and Public Administration, Bathurst,
NSW 2795, Australia
159
160
Christopher
society
power,
position, class,
socio-economic group
laws, rules,
religion, customs
social
conscience
the old,
the sick,
the infIrm
education
mariage&
children
structure
task
&
hierarchy
young
adults
personal
growth
needs
employement/
career
decisions
& policy
family &
individual
work
Fig. 1. Building a global future: The model begins with me
This was the stage of development of the GLOBAL MODEL when it was
presented to a group of workshop participants at the ISAGA'91 international
congress in Japan, July 1991. It was presented as a set of eight cardboard
cubes, labelled as shown in Fig. 1.
Participants expressed interest in the model, immediately began to take it
apart and started to play with the eight small cubes. One person observed that
three sides of each cube were untitled. The designer replied that although
labelling the blank sides would emphasize the planar nature of the model (since
each title would be the same as that on its opposite side, see Fig. 1.), this
would be redundant. At this point, a participant suggested that the cubes
could be used as in a game of dice, and someone else remarked that the blank
sides could be filled in by the players. From then on, the session became a
brainstorm from which the designer was able to construct the game which is
described below. Her sincere thanks go to the organizers of ISAGA'91 and all
Global Modelling: A Game-Generating Game
161
the participants in her workshop. The session was a powerful example of the
kind of game synergism that is generated uniquely by ISAGA's international
conferences.
Global Modelling: A Game-Generating Game
Objectives
To see the organization and operations of one's own culture with fresh eyes,
and to gain new insights into others' cultural behavior in order to improve
cross-cultural understanding and communication.
Time Required
About 2 hours.
Number of Players
Eight people for each model set. Others can act as observers, or the game
director may want to adapt the game slightly to accommodate fewer or more
people.
Materials Required
Copy of GLOBAL MODEL (as Fig. 1); basket or other receptacle to hold the
model cubes; four sheets of th~n
cardboard for each model set, preferably in
different colors; felt-tipped pens of various colors; scissors; pencil and ruler;
tape.
Advance Preparation
As shown in Fig. 2, cut out eight shapes for each model set from four sheets of
cardboard (if there are more than eight players, at least two model sets will be
needed). Each of the eight Cubes has labels written as follows:
-
-
-
Cube 1
Side a-Individual and family: marriage and children
Side b-Society: education
Side c-Work: task (conditions of labor)
Cube 2
Side a-Individual and family: the old, sick, and infirm
Side b-Society: power and position (class, socio-economic grouping)
Side c-Work: task (conditions of labor)
Cube 3
Side a-Individual and family: the old, sick, and infirm
Side b-Society: rules and religion (laws, customs, tradition)
Side c-Work: hierarchy (organizational structure)
162
Christopher
Fig. 2. Each side of a cube should be about 5 cm square
-
Cube 4
Side a-Individual and family: marriage and children
Side b-Society: health and welfare (social conscience)
Side c-Work: hierarchy (organizational structure)
- Cube 5
Side a-Individual and family: personal goals (growth needs)
Side b-Society: education
Side c-Work: employment (jobs and careers)
- Cube 6
Side a-Individual and family: young adults
Side b-Society: power and position (class, socio-economic groupings)
Side c-Work: employment (jobs and careers)
- Cube 7
Side a-Individual and family: young adults
Side b-Society: rules and religion (laws, customs, traditions)
Side c-Work: organizational policy
- Cube 8
Side a-Individual and family: personal goals
Side b-Society: health and welfare
Side c-Work: organizational policy
How the Game Is Played
Players sit in a circle and the complete model is placed on display in front of
them. The game director talks for a few minutes about the model, explaining
its rationale as described above, and initiating a short discussion of about
Global Modelling: A Game-Generating Game
163
10 min. The model is then broken into its eight component cubes which are
placed in a basket and passed around the circle. Players in tum draw a cube.
Each player then writes the following on the three blank sides of the cube:
-
Side 1-the word "game", or "Role-play" or some other activity such as
"case study"
Side 2-a few words to describe some kind of scenario, such as "at a bus
stop," "in the bank," or "at work"
Side 3-two roles to match the scenario.
When all players have inscribed the three sides of their cube, all cubes are
replaced at random in the basket. The basket is then passed around the circle.
Players, without looking, pick a cube each.
Players now form dyads. In tum, a member of each dyad throws the two
cubes like dice onto the playing area (table, carpet, etc., depending on how the
group is seated). This sequence continues until one dyad has succeeded in
throwing an activity, a scenario, two roles, and an aspect of society, work, and
individual. This dyad then drops out of the circle and begins to work on the
designated activity while the other players continue throwing in tum until all
have completed the task. After an appropriate planning time, each dyad
presents a role-play, game, case study, and so on to the rest of the group.
Examples
One dyad might eventually throw the following:
-
Marriage and children
Health and welfare
How people are hired and fired
Activity: negotiation role-play
Scenario: company boardroom
Roles: employer and worker representatives
This combination might result in a negotiation to illustrate the power of
workers' representatives (unions) to protect their members from harsh employment conditions such as extremely long working hours away from their homes
and families, or dismissal.
Another example might be:
-
Young adults
Power and position
Organizational structures
Activity: case study
Scenario: a personnel office
Roles: personnel officer, young employee
This combination of variables might result in the creation of a case study to
focus attention, for example, on career paths for young people after accepting
employment within an organizational structure; or acceptance or rejection,
164
Christopher
within the organizational structure, of the principle of promotion on merit
regardless of age or length of employment within the organization.
Suggestions for Debriefing
Initiate a discussion after each activity by asking players to discuss social, work,
and family variables in their own cultures, then to compare their responses
with those of others in the group. To play the GLOBAL MODEL GAME, it is
not necessary to assemble a multinational group of players: there are many
"cultural" differences among groups within a society. For example, in many
cultures, women are socialized so differently from men that it can be said they
possess different cultures. Employers and employees often operate from different assumptions about the nature of work. The GLOBAL MODEL GAME
helps to identify and explore such differences.
Dr. Elizabeth Christopher is a faculty member in the School of Business,
Charles Sturt University, New South Wales, Australia. She is known internationally as a designer of games and simulations for management training
and has published two books in collaboration with Larry Smith, Director of
the Institute of Culture and Communication, East-West Center, Honolulu:
Leadership training through gaming: Power, people and problem solving and
Negotiation training through gaming: Strategies, tactics, and manoeuvres,
(Kogan Page Nichols). She is a member of the Editorial Board of Simulation
& Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research.
Simulation Structure and Attitude Change
in a High Technology Culture
T. R. Schumacher!
Abstract. The organizational culture of a software engineering firm was studied to
discover inconsistencies between the existing culture and expressed ideals. The gap
between existing and ideal was measured using an attitude questionnaire drawn from
statements made during interviews with employees. A simulation game was created to
induce attitude change toward the ideals. Subjects sequentially experienced two contrasting simulated cultures as they made decisions as a department manager in a
computerized business simulation. The simulation is written in HyperCard and each
subject made decisions on a Macintosh computer. The subjects participated in fourperson teams, whose computers were linked and shared data. During the ten training
classes, 122 employees attended one class and played one of three simulation versions.
A control group of 42 people, and 97 of the 122 who played the simulation, completed
pre- and post-simulation questionnaires. There was extensive attitude change in the
treatment groups.
Key words attitude change; HyperCard; organizational culture; simulation
Research on the effectiveness of simulations in causing attitude change has
focused on the comparison of simulations to traditional education methods
such as lectures. The results of these studies provide mixed evidence to support
the claim that simulations induce attitude change. Pierfy (1977), Bredemeier
and Greenblat (1981), and Butler et al. (1988) have reviewed this research and
have raised a number of methodological concerns. It was believed that these
concerns could be addressed by conducting a study outside the classroom.
The present study was conducted in a rapidly growing software company.
The simulation content addresses how rapid growth influences the organizational culture. It focuses on attitudes about the balance between short-term,
task-directed work and long-term, culture-development work. Subjects were
employees who were involved daily with the issues in the simulation.
1 Systems Science PhD Program, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland,
OR 97207 US; phones (503) 725-4960 (w) (503) 775-9378 (h)
165
166
Schumacher
Methodological Concerns of Previous Studies
Pierfy (1977) describes several methodological weaknesses that are commonly
found in studies of simulation effectiveness, including (1) the potential for
experimenter bias, (2) teacher effectiveness as an uncontrolled variable, and
(3) compressed research cycles where the simulation experience and postsimulation measurements have been conducted within a single class session,
typically 60-90 min. The potential for a significant demand effect when
teachers are giving questionnaires to their students has also been a concern.
The majority of studies have been conduced using students as subjects and
classes to define treatment groups. Butler et al. (1988) consider this a "quasiexperimental design." They surveyed articles in Simulation & Games: An
International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research and the ABSEL proceedings for an 8 year period. They reported that only 14% of the journal
articles (total n = 170) and less than 3% of the proceedings articles (total n =
458) met their definition of "experimental research designs." These concerns
were addressed in the current study as described in the methodology section.
An additional question for any research on attitude change concerns the
centrality within subjects' cognitive structure of the attitudes that are expected
to change. Those researching attitude change believe that attitudes are resistant to change, in part, because they are embedded in a system of other·
attitudes and beliefs. The more central an attitude is in a person's cognitive
structure, the more resilient that attitude will be because of the support it has
from related cognitive elements. For example, it would be far more difficult to
demonstrate a change in economists' attitudes about free trade than, say, a
change in the attitudes of college freshmen about a hypothetical "Lord South"
whom they had never heard of prior to playing a simulation of his life. Clearly,
free trade is more tightly embedded in economists' cognitive structures. The
attitudes targeted for change in the present study were central to the organizational culture. (Space limitations prohibit a detailed discussion.)
One reason that simulations can be effective tools for inducing attitude
change is that they may provide a means of overcoming this "systemic resilience." Play is a special type of cognitive processing in which the adoption of
new and artificial realities is expected and done with less evaluation than
usually occurs (Bruner et al. 1976). The temporary adoption of a role when
playing a simulation can be an opportunity for participants' to learn a new
system of attitudes and beliefs which supports a changed attitude. After the
simulation experience, the new attitude then has its' own basis for systemic
resilience. When simulation participants encounter a situation outside the
simulation in which the newly learned attitude or role has some utility they
may incorporate these into daily life.
Simulation Structure
The simulation structure developed for this study was a blend of two previous
simulations. Fletcher (1971) suggested providing a recording mechanism and
Simulation Structure and Attitude Change
167
multiple plays of a simulation. This allows participants to use acquired knowledge to improve their performance. Fletcher assumes that the content to be
conveyed by the simulation is contained in a successful strategy for the participant in the simulated environment. The CARIBOU HUNTING GAME
which Fletcher used had no roles for participants to adopt as they played the
simulation. Fletcher did not suggest a strategy to participants. Instead he
allowed each to develop their own, with the result that after seven plays most
were still improving their strategies.
In BAPA BAPA, participants are divided into two groups and each group
learns a simulated culture (Alpha or Beta) to play when the two groups
interact. There is no strategy to play in BAPA BAFA, and there are no
winners or losers at the end of the simulation. Discovery of the contrasting
culture is an intended outcome. Even with well conducted debriefings some
players remain ignorant of the cultural role they did not play.
The WINNING AT DESIGN AUTOMATION (WADA) simulation developed in this study combines the multiple plays and recording mechanism from
Fletcher and two cultural roles from BAFA BAPA. Players are instructed to
adopt the Alpha role for the first game and Beta for the second. These roles
are contrasting strategies for resource expenditure, and different outcomes will
be obtained from the computer with the use of these different strategies.
Players therefore experience two contrasting role/strategies with the optimal
strategy consisting of the attitudes toward which change is intended-the ideals
of the organization's culture.
Beyond these elements of gross structure, the WADA simulation includes a
number of features to create strong role identification with the two cultural
roles. Livingston and Kidder (1973) and Williams (1986, 1987) have suggested
role identification may be a factor in causing attitude change during simulation
experience. Features included to support the adoption of the cultural roles are
presented below.
Role Identification Features of the WADA Simulation
1. Players read the five-page cultural role description at the beginning of each
game. Each team discussed the role and then made a 5-min presentation
summarizing the major points using a flip chart.
2. Multiple choice questions were asked about the cultural descriptions as a
part of the simulation.
3. Colored hats with the name of each cultural role were presented to players
along with instructions to adopt that role during the preparations for each
play.
4. The cultural roles were carefully constructed to contain attitudes and beliefs
that contrast along the dimensions where attitude change is intended. The
Beta culture represents the ideals toward which players were expected to
move and it was constructed to be consistent with attitudes and beliefs of
the existing culture that were not targeted for change by the simulation.
168
Schumacher
Independent variables
Simulation
Structure
(version)
Mediating variable
Role
Identification
(Empathy)
Dependent variables
Participant
Attitudes
Fig. 1. Study variables (boxes) and hypotheses (arrows)
This was expected to increase the player's incorporation of this role into
their cognitions of normal work life.
5. The design of the model that drives the behavior of the WADA simulation,
as well as much of the content of the simulation, was based upon information gathered in the interviews. Terms incorporated in the simulation
(e.g., vision, bureaucracy, small company atmosphere) were frequently
used by employees during the interviews. One example of the extent of the
use of the interview data is that the primary resource in the simulation is
time-and not money as in most business simulations-because of the
importance of time. in the organizational culture. Another example is that
employees believe that a strong vision is important to the success of the .
company. The cultural roles incorporate this belief and players experience
this in the contrast between the two games.
Hypotheses
Several simulation versions were created by including or excluding some of the
role identification features described above. Simulation structure (version) was
an independent variable and groups of questionnaire items represented the
dependent variables in this study as shown in Fig. 1.
It was hypothesized (H t ) that different versions of the simulation would
create different degrees of identification with the role of the ideal culture
(Beta). It was also hypothesized (H2 ) that greater role identification would
produce greater attitude change toward that ideal.
Methodology
More than 200 ethnographic interviews were conducted with employees to
determine issues in the existing culture and ideals that relate to those issues.
The principle investigator explained that the purpose of the interviews and
questionnaires was to collect data for his doctoral dissertation on corporate
culture.
Statements made during the interviews were used to develop a questionnaire
that was sent to a random sample of employees 2 months prior to the first
simulation class. Questionnaires were numbered so that individual's pre- and
Simulation Structure and Attitude Change
169
post-simulation measurements could be compared. Employees who returned
this questionnaire were assigned to one of three treatment conditions or a
control group. Those assigned to a treatment group were invited to attend a
I-day class on corporate culture conducted by the vice president of Human
Resources. Subjects were not informed that the class was related to the dissertation study.
The classes lasted 6-8 h and the primary activity was playing the simulation.
Players were organized into teams of four which competed to earn the most
points. Each person took on the role (on a Macintosh computer) of the
manager of a department making decisions about how to spend their time-the
primary resource in the simulation. The four computers of each team were
networked to pass information.
There were during-simulation and post-simulation discussions that totaled
about 2 h in each class. A list of questions addressing the relationships in the
simulation was provided to the facilitator to guide the debriefings. Subjects
were asked to compare and contrast the fictitious Alpha and Beta cultural roles
to the organization where they worked. Audio recordings were made of the
debriefing discussions.
A total of 122 employees experienced the simulation during ten I-day
classes. Post-simulation questionnaires were sent to each participant 15 days
after their simulation class. A sample of participants were interviewed after all
questionnaires had been returned and none of these were aware of a connection between the questionnaires and the cultural simulation class.
The Dependent Variables
Individual questionnaire items were grouped according to topic during the
design of the questionnaire and cultural roles in order to define the dependent
variables. Eight groups with a total of 40 items are discussed here. Cronback's
alpha ranged from 0.62 to 0.80 for the eight items indicating an acceptable
level of questionnaire reliability.
One issue that emerged early in the interviews was a concern that the
organization's culture was changing. People repeatedly stated that the "small
company atmosphere" was being lost and that the organization was becoming more "bureaucratic." Most indicated a belief that bureaucracy was the
inevitable result of growth though the definition of bureaucracy was vague.
The first dependent variable sought to clarify the definition of bureaucracy.
The items in the second variable linked actions that individuals could take
to the inhibition of bureaucracy. The third and fourth variables measure
opportunities and responsibilities, respectively, for individuals to take the
actions described in variable two. Variable five items ask if it is possible that
the organization can continue to grow while avoiding bureaucracy, a position
opposite to the initial widespread "bureaucratic inevitability" belief. Variable
six assesses whether participants believe there is a need to change things in the
organization related to the actions in variable two. One of these changes is
the formation of "partnerships," a cultural concept addressed by dependent
variable number seven.
170
Schumacher
Table 1. Pre, post, and change scores of the simulation
Treatment group 1 (n = 37)
Dependent variables
No. of Pre Post
items
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8b
Bureaucracy definition
Anti-Bureaucracy actions
Opportunities to act
Responsibility to act
Possible to avoid bureaucracy
Need for change
Partnerships
Rewards for actions
Control group (n = 41)
Dependent variables
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8b
Bureaucracy definition
Anti-Bureaucracy actions
Opportunities to act
Responsibility to act
Possible to avoid bureaucracy
Need for change
Partnerships
Rewards for actions
Change C
ta
P
5
7
4
5
5
6
4
4
5.27
4.86
4.58
5.38
3.62
5.49
5.82
3.94
5.73
5.61
4.91
5.87
4.06
6.16
6.15
3.48
0.400
0.783
0.362
0.463
0.434
0.673
0.338
-0.410
2.49
6.38
1.83
4.12
2.91
7.03
3.16
-2.64
0.0088*
0.0001*
0.0379*
0.0001*
0.0031*
0.0001*
0.0017*
0.0062*
No. of
items
Pre
Post
Change C
ta
P
5
7
4
5
5
6
4
4
5.38
4.94
4.50
5.47
3.57
5.55
5.39
3.83
5.32
5.04
4.72
5.38
3.56
5.78
5.78
3.73
-0.054
0.101
0.211
-0.098
-0.005
0.232
0.369
-0.104
-0.32
1.02
1.02
-1.12
-0.03
2.43
2.59
-0.619
0.7493
0.3162
0.3135
0.2687
0.9749
0.0198*
0.0133*
0.5395
* P < 0.05
One tailed paired t-test.
b Rewards variable was not targetted for change, see discussion.
CNote the change, t, and P values were calculated in the paired t-test routine which eliminates
cases when either pre or post score is missing. The average pre and post scores were calculated in
separate routines. The change value does not always match the pre and post difference because
additional cases may be missing from this calculation.
a
Variable eight, "Rewards for actions," was not targeted for change in the
simulation. It was included to measure attitudes relating actions suggested by
the simulation to participants' perceptions of organizational support for those
actions. Each asked for an assessment of company rewards, for example,
"Mentor Graphics rewards individuals who take risks". Its possible that the
organizational culture did not match expressed ideals because the "ideal
actions" were not rewarded. If this was true, changing attitudes in some of the
items in variables two to five would be more difficult. Variable eight is included
in this analysis because there was change in this variable and this is an interesting result for simulation designers.
Results
Different versions of the simulation did produce different levels of role identification, but the highest identification group did not have the greatest attitude
change. Hypotheses relating role identification to attitude change were upheld.
Simulation Structure and Attitude Change
171
Only the treatment group with the greatest attitude change is discussed here.
Table 1 presents data for the eight dependent variables for treatment and
control groups.
Discussion
There was substantial change in the treatment groups, and participants reported a high level of enjoyment for the simulation exercise. Dependent
variable five, measuring whether participants believed it possible for the
company to grow and avoid bureaucracy, showed a shift across the midline of
the seven point scale. The dependent variable showing the least significant
change was "Opportunities to act". In future simulation use the facilitator
could modify delivery to emphasize this. In addition, company management
may wish to make changes in order to encourage the exercise of greater power
by employees.
The question of the duration of effect is often raised. Extensive change was
measured three weeks after the simulation classes. This duration of effect
allowed substantial opportunity for the organization to reward and reinforce
the change that the simulation introduced. In the longer term, it will be
organizational support for the changed attitudes, and not "duration of simulation effect" that determines the survival of those changes.
There was change in the control group for two of the eight dependent
variables discussed. Possible sources for that change have been identified.
Several managers who were contacted after the study indicated that they had
discussed their simulation experience in staff meetings because of its perceived
value. One manager admitted taking copies of the cultural roles and sharing
them with others even though an announcement had been made in each
simulation class not to discuss it for fear of spoiling the experience for others
who had yet to play. In fact this announcement and the efforts to collect all
materials at the end of each class were done to avoid "leakage" to employees
in the control group. The change in the control group was much less significant
than that in the treatment group.
Items assessing whether certain actions were rewarded by the company
measured significant change in the treatment groups. There was no intent
to change these. Rather it was a priori considered extremely difficult to
change an assessment of the company's behavior as the simulation did not
address this. Apparently the experience of the Beta culture (which has high
levels of reward giving) was strong enough for participants to reevaluate their
assessment of the company where they worked. In the post-simulation questionnaire they judged the level of rewards as lower than they had initially
indicated. Unintended change is an issue that simulation designers need to
consider.
The evidence reported here indicates that simulations can be effective instruments to introduce attitude change in organizations. Attention to the socially
constructed organizational realities-including incorporation of culturally
172
Schumacher
relevant language and concepts-as well as careful design of the simulation
experience are considered the keys to successful sessions.
References
BAFA BAFA. Shirts G (1977) Simile II (218 Twelfth Street, P.O. Box 910, Del Mar,
CA 92014 US)
Bredemeier M, Greenblat CS (1981) The educational effectiveness of simulation games.
Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research
12(3):307-332
Bruner J, Jolly A, Sylva K (1976) Play-Its role in development and evolution.
Penguin, Harmondsworth
Butler R, Markulis P, Strang D (1988) Where are we? An analysis of the methods and
focus of the research on simulation gaming. Simulation & Games: An Internation
Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 19(1):3-26
Fletcher JL (1971) Evaluation of learning in two social studies simulation games.
Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research
2(3) :259-286
Livingston S, Kidder S (1973) Role identification and game structure: Effects on
political activities. Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design,
and Research 4(2):131-144
Pierfy D (1977) Comparative simulation game research: Stumbling blocks and stepping
stones. Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and
Research 8(3):255-268
Williams R (1986) Changing attitudes with "identification theory". Simulation &
Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 17(1):25-44
Williams R (1987) Levels of identification as a predictor of attitude change. Simulation
& Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 18(4):471-487
T.R. Schumacher is a doctoral candidate in the Systems Science PhD
program at Portland State University. The research reported here is a
portion of his dissertation.
Section 3
Environmental and
Developmental Issues
Introducing Gaming-Simulations into the
Planning Process in a Developing Country
Cathy S. Greenblat1
Abstract. Under the sponsorship of UNDP (the United Nations Development Program), a multistage process of introducing gaming-simulation into various stages of the
planning process in Ghana has been underway for the past year. The consultation was
invited in response to the pressing demand for a larger number of trained development
planners in both the public and private sectors in Ghana. Over the course of two 1month visits, this author worked with staff at the Department of Planning, Faculty of
Environmental and Development Studies, University of Science and Technology
(UST), Kumasi, with several major goals connected with the overall aim of strengthening the capacity for using and designing gaming-simulations. As a result of the success of
this first consultation, a second stage has been proposed. This paper will elaborate on
the first phase of the project.
Key words
planning
design; gaming-simulation; ISAGA; national and regional planning;
In 1988 in Ghana, PNDC (Provisional National Defence Council) Law 207
shifted budgeting and decision-making responsibilities to the 110 districts in the
country. This action created a pressing need for a larger number of trained
development planners in both the public and private sectors. The United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) created several projects designed
to strengthen development planning in Ghana. In the past year, two of these
UNDP projects have included components with the goals of increasing and
improving the utilization of gaming-simulation in both the training of planners
and in the planning process itself. This paper presents an overview of the first
of the two gaming projects supported by UNDP, and a discussion of the factors
contributing to its success.
Gaming-Simulations for the Training of Planners
The first project, which was completed in February 1991, was a training
enterprise. A major beneficiary of the UNDP assistance was the Department
1 Department of Sociology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08903 US; phones
908-932-0498 (w), 212-353-1990 (h); facsimile 212-228-0576
175
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Greenblat
of Planning, Faculty of Environmental and Development Studies, at the
University of Science and Technology (UST) in Kumasi. Consultants have
been or will be brought in to enhance the department faculty's usage of a
variety of teaching techniques (flip charting, video presentation, etc.), to
develop an M.Sc. program in social planning, and to strengthen staff capacity
in aspects of economic planning.
The department had a history of using gaming-simulations. Several faculty
members, including the two prior chairs, had participated in a workshop
conducted by Richard Duke in 1978 in Tema and Kumasi. Their enthusiasm
for gaming remained high over the subsequent years. Following the Temal
Kumasi workshop, several games were designed and subsequently employed in
classroom teaching. Unfortunately, with the serious economic difficulties in
Ghana in the early 1980s, many of the supplies for the games that had been left
in the university after the workshop and those designed in its aftermath could
not be replenished. The continuing enthusiasm for the technique, however, led
the department in 1990 to request a consultation for the purpose of upgrading
faculty competence in the use and design of gaming-simulations for planning
education. In lieu of the 3-month visit initially requested of me, a two-visit
program was adopted. In May I made a preliminary 3-week visit to the
university; then I returned in January 1991 for a month, accompanied by Diana
Shannon, whose visit extended an additional 2 weeks.
There were four main goals for the project:
1. Obtain and demonstrate existing gaming-simulations dealing with development planning to department members.
2. Train department staff to run those gaming-simulations they find relevant to
their teaching, for use with undergraduate and graduate students and with
workshop or short course participants.
3. Instruct interested department members in game design techniq\Jes through
a program of design seminars.
4. Produce prototypes of one or two simulations as a result of collaborative
efforts of the consultants and staff members who participate in the design
seminars and ongoing efforts.
Preliminary Steps: Familiarization and Needs Assessment
In order to advise the department on which existing games might be employed,
which might be modified, and what new games might be developed, it was first
necessary to understand the present planning situation in Ghana and the UST
Planning Department's role in preparing staff for various levels of work in the
new situation. I also considered it essential that we become familiar with the
salient aspects of social, political, and economic life in Ghana, to better
understand the opportunities and constraints that operate for planners in that
country, and to understand the factors that must be built into any simulation of
the planning process.
Gaming-Simulations and Planning in a Developing Country
177
The preliminary work of familiarization with the department's activities in
teaching and training, an assessment of their needs and resources, and of the
specific content areas in which gaming-simulation might be employed, was
undertaken during my 3-week visit in May-June 1990. An active program of
meetings was established for me, and I was given the opportunity to review
numerous written materials. At the UST, individual and collective meetings
were held with most members of the teaching faculty and with a number of
students. A variety of opportunities arose to meet with others in Kumasi whose
experiences and insights were valuable in the formulation of ideas about the
use of gaming-simulations for training planners in Ghana, and in understanding
some of the dimensions of change in Ghana. In Accra on the first and last
days of the consultation, brief meetings were held with several UNDP staff
members and with planners in agencies and in the NDPC (National Development Planning Commission) and with faculty members in the Sociology
Department of the University of Ghana at Legon.
Many useful documents were provided to me for review during my stay
in Kumasi, including descriptions of courses and workshops, social science
analyses of contemporary Ghanaian life, and undergraduate and graduate
student papers. The latter were useful both for their substance and as indicators of the quality of analysis and writing of the students in the department.
Finally, I had several opportunities to increase my understanding of life and
issues in Ghana through visits to a village and to several other cities in the
center of the country, as well as through reading Ghanaian newspapers and
novels.
Goals 1 and 2: Gaming-Simulation Demonstrations and
Development of Faculty Skill in Running Them
While the primary aim of my first visit was to do an assessment of needs and
resources for gaming-simulations in the planning department, it was anticipated
that during this visit some gaming-simulations could be introduced. I prepared
a list of several I anticipated would be useful; UNDP ordered them and had
them shipped to Accra prior to my arrival. As a result of the discussions I held
in the first visit, and of inquiries made subsequently, a few additional items
were purchased for the second trip. The materials brought and used in the
project included all those listed in the References section of this paper.
The format for the demonstration of games during both visits was the same:
1. A presentation was made to the department members on the nature and
focus of each of the available simulations. The staff then made decisions
about which ones they wanted to see, and which group of students might
participate. Faculty members were also urged to attend these sessions as
participants, and they regularly offered to do so.
2. One or more demonstrations of each gaming-simulation were given, run by
myself (in May) and later by Diana and me (in January). In subsequent runs
178
Greenblat
some faculty members took over some operator's functions, under our
supervision.
3. Follow-up discussion focused on how the materials might be employed in
existing courses and in anticipated workshops. In addition, we reviewed the
operators' instructions with those faculty members who indicated an interest
in running the game in the future, assuring that there was at least one
"expert" per game in the department.
Goals 3 and 4: Design Seminar and Design of New
Gaming-Simulations
Recognizing that few simulations existed which adequately treated the development planning topics of concern to the UST faculty, their interest in design
was high. The first visit revealed that there were both important resources and
important limitations for such an endeavor.
While the faculty was strong in terms of their knowledge and their interest in
the design workshop, it was also obvious that they were extremely busy;
preparation for courses and other activities push the staff heavily, and many
have outside responsibilities (e.g., to the NDPC, to national agencies), limiting
their time even further. It thus seemed unrealistic to expect they would make a
major time commitment to this enterprise, and gaming-simulation design is
time-consuming. I did not anticipate any difficulty attaining good attendance at
a 2- or 3-day design seminar, but I doubted that any of the staff would have
even half-time available during my January visit to devote to design. It was
important, however, that they were willing to lend their classes for field-testing
and for modifying any games that were to be designed.
Two steps were taken to deal with this situation. First, all faculty members
were given a copy of Designing Games and Simulations (Greenblat 1987) and
were urged to read it before my January return. Second, and more importantly, I was convinced that the success of the project was dependent upon
my returning with a colleague, to permit continuous working on the design
enterprise while faculty were intermittently available. My proposal that Diana
Shannon accompany me, was approved by both the department and by UNDP
in New York, and thus two of us arrived in Kumasi in early January.
In terms of materials, the situation was a mixed one. Gaming-simulation
design requires databases, case studies, and library materials. While the library
holdings in the planning department were found to be very limited in number,
I was very impressed with the research studies that had been undertaken and
were available to the game designer through the department library. Indeed,
many of the topics proposed for design could be addressed quite easily using
available information, with little time required to gather supplementary data.
The two areas of greatest need were supplies and a microcomputer.
Although I gathered that the situation even a few years ago was considerably
worse, there remained a shortage of such items as paper, card stock, tape,
plastic bags and cups, push-pins, transparencies, and so on, which were needed
Gaming-Simulations and Planning in a Developing Country
179
for design. I thus requested a small budget so I could assemble a box of such
supplies to bring in January. A Macintosh equipped with word processing,
graphic arts, and desktop publishing capabilities had been requested from the
outset of my talks with UNDP; the utility of this machine became even more
obvious during my first trip. Unfortunately, while the request for the supplies
budget was granted, the Macintosh request was caught in a series of projectfunding problems, and was not met. At the last minute, Diana and I brought
computers with us to do the design work, but we were not able to train
department faculty to use them in the way we had anticipated.
In my first report I had proposed that a 3-day design workshop be run for
staff. This did not prove feasible, given the already heavy commitments they
had. Instead, 3 afternoons were devoted to design seminars, and individuals
worked with us as their time permitted. By the time we began the seminars,
many of them had read quite a bit of the design book, and hence were
prepared to discuss the process in a fuller fashion. The seminar was organized
in the same fashion as the book, proceeding through the steps of design as
outlined there.
The first seminar focused on decisions about specification of objectives and
parameters. During meetings held in May, a number of topics had been
proposed for the design of new simulations (supposing that no existing ones
were found which could be used or modified). The list included a Planning
Agency simulation, a Market Planning simulation, a Regional PlanningResource Needs Assessment simulation, a simulation for Regional PlanningImpact Assessment, an Urban Settlement simulation, and a set of Community
Participation simulations. Following my urging that we needed to identify a
topic for the continuing efforts, these were discussed and it was agreed that
attention would be focused on two: (1) an elaboration of the proposal to design
an agency game, but with emphasis to be placed on interagency activities, and
(2) a gaming-simulation that could be used to help elicit citizen participation in
discussions on problems, goals, and projects. During a follow-up session, it was
suggested that the agency game would be useful not only for students, but at
the district level and at the national level if it highlighted the sources of
inefficiency that currently hamper interagency coordination, in particular, the
lack of horizontal communication. Careful specifications were made for this
simulation, which eventually became the Planning Agency simulation, PLANet
(Table 1). Major efforts were devoted to the design of PLANet when it was
suggested by several staff members that the second project could be accomplished satisfactorily through a modification of the AT ISSUE! simulation. The
specification of objectives and parameters developed and subsequently used
was as in Table 1.
The second seminar focused on the agency simulation, as department members helped us to build the conceptual model, detailing their understanding of
the interagency network and the sources of inefficiency. By the time of the
third seminar, Diana and I had done a great deal of the third step in designdecisions about the style and form of representation-in intensive work
sessions with one another and sometimes with available faculty members. We
180
Greenblat
Table 1. PLANet: Specification of objectives and parameters
Subject matter:
The gaming-simulation will model the problems of agency and network operation in a
situation in which inefficiences are endemic. The sources of such inefficiencies are at the
system (network) level, in terms of such factors as overlapping functions, insufficient
materials, and so on; at the agency level, where operating procedures are
counterproductive; and at the individual level, where such factors as lack of skills,
nepotism, and holding of second jobs impair efficient task performance in the work
realm.
The gaming-simulation should be sufficiently abstract to be relevant to analysis of a
wide range of situations in which a set of organizations, agencies, or ministries have not
only their own goals, but are expected to contribute to the achievement of a larger
systemic goal.
Purpose:
Through participation in the gaming-simulation, players will experience firsthand both
the difficulties of completing agency tasks and the failure to achieve network success.
The impediments to agency and network success created by both agency and individual
inefficiencies should also alert participants to the manner and extent to which their
failures contribute to the failures of others. Analysis of the various factors that create
and foster inefficiency in the game should lead to greater ability to recognize such
factors in the real-world situation. Analysis of which factors are more subject to change
will lead to discussion of how to implement a reduction of real-world agency/network
inefficiencies.
Potential participants:
The gaming-simulation will be designed to be played by several types of participants:
- Ministry personnel
- Agency personnel at the regional or district or local level
- Students of planning, management, sociology, etc.
Potential operators:
The gaming-simulation should require little in the way of operator skills. Operators
would be faculty members or others in charge of workshops or classes.
Context of use:
The gaming-simulation should be usable in a workshop or classroom context. Hence it
will be designed to require approximately 3-4 h of play and discussion/analysis. It is
anticipated that such time must be consecutive (i.e., a 3-4 h block will be required). It
will be designed to accomodate a group of 25-35 participants, which should be
appropriate for many workshops and most classes. If there are a larger number of
participants to be accomodated, sequential or parallel sessions would have to be run.
Resources of users:
Since the gaming-simulation is aimed at audiences in developing countries, the
resources that can be devoted to its use will often be limited. It should be designed so as
not to require computer facilities, and should utilize materials that are relatively easily
and inexpensively acquired locally. To the extent possible, materials should be reusable,
requiring minimal photocopying or replacement of materials.
had, in addition, begun work on the fourth step: construction of a prototype.
This seminar, then, involved faculty members in not only making some
decisions, but also in reviewing the decisions and the materials developed on
the basis of them.
Gaming-Simulations and Planning in a Developing Country
181
At each of these sessions, a large bulletin board was used to provide participants with an overview of the entire set of decisions, and of what had been
done since the last general meeting. Through these sessions, I believe that a
number of staff members gained insight into the design process; because of
their lack of time to work with us on a sustained basis, however, they are not at
the stage of being able to easily design new materials without guidance.
As indicated above, Diana and I were able to do a great deal on the design
of the prototype agency game PLANet. A complete set of preliminary materials was designed and field-tested with students before Diana's departure in
mid-February. Modifications based on these field tests are still needed before
the materials are in a final form, and an operator's manual remains to be
prepared, but everyone agreed that it had considerable potential and quality.
Both faculty members at UST and staff of the NDPC believe that it will be a
useful tool for classes and workshops, as well as for training sessions with
district level agency staff and with ministerial staff at the national level.
My experience elsewhere in Africa suggests that PLANet models problems
that are not unique to Ghana, but that It shows problems that appear in
varying degrees of severity in many other developing countries. I thus believe
that it would be a useful tool in a wide range of contexts. We deliberately
designed it in a modular fashion to allow relatively easy alteration for somewhat different audiences. The "big picture" on which agency role-players must
work is taken from a planning problem in agricultural economics; modifications
that made it focus on another topic such as health care management or higher
education management should not be difficult.
Diana also worked with Professor Kofi Tamakloe on the second design
project that had been proposed, that is, a tool for eliciting the views of
community members at district level meetings. This involved use of the AT
ISSUE! concept, but with considerable modification and the ultimate addition
of graphic elements.
Success of the Training Project
Both the students and the staff were extremely energetic in their participation
in all gaming-simulations, and many of the staff members commented that the
students were much more active in the discussions that ensued after play than
they usually are. Staff were highly enthusiastic about a number of these
gaming-simulations, and particularly spoke of continuing use of BAFA-BAFA,
CAPJEFOS, the HEX Game, STRATAGEM, and AT ISSUE! I quite firmly
believe that they will do so, in their classes and in the coming workshops
they will run. Discussions were also held at NDPC about their using gamingsimulations as a component of their nationwide training programs. A UST
faculty member on 3-year assignment to NDPC had been able to attend most
of the demonstrations at UST; he developed a firm grasp of them, could run
most of them, and was eager to do so. As we left, he was working with the
182
Greenblat
NDPC training director on modes of integrating the gaming-simulations into
the 12 workshops currently being developed.
I believe that there are several factors that account for the success of the first
project. First, there was a high level of interest in gaming within the department, and the consultation was supported enthusiastically by both the two
prior chairs, and the current chair, Professor Tamakloe. This assured us
maximum access to staff, documents, and other resources. Second, there was
already a commitment in the department to an active approach to learning.
While most classes are presented through a lecture mode, various department
publications urge that "doubting, questioning, exploring, enquiring are the
essence of good teaching and learning." The commitment to active learning is
evidenced in the workshop courses that comprise a significant element of the
curriculum at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. These workshops
are well-conceived and very dynamic; they exemplify the ideas of learning
through direct inquiry and through cooperative team effort-aspects clearly
related to the gaming enterprise.
Third, splitting the consultation into two separate parts allowed me to do a
needs assessment and then to plan carefully for the subsequent stage, which
could not have been done had I made one long visit. It also allowed me to
recognize the essential need for an associate if the design phase was to be
successfully executed. The fourth factor, then, was the presence of a team of
two consultants for the second phase. Diana and I had both worked in a variety
of international contexts, and had worked together on numerous occasions
before, permitting a smooth division of labor and maximum effectiveness.
The major impediment to our goals was the relative lack of availability of
existing materials. Before the first visit and during the period between the two
visits, I extensively searched for gaming-simulations that focused on (or at least
were usable in) a developing country context, and that dealt with one or more
of the following:
-
Urban and regional planning
Management of renewable resources
Development economics
Planning unit/agency management and operations
Community participation in decision making
Coordination of planning efforts at the local/regional/national levels
Games that assist participants in skills of finance, budgeting, accounting,
record keeping, time management, priority determination, communication,
and impact assessment
I located very few. The other problem, fortunately recognized during the first
visit and so dealt with in some ways before the second, was the very limited
availability of supplies and such services as photocopying. These put constraints on the use of some materials that require extensive "refilling" between
runs, and shaped a number of decisions made during the design of PLANet.
I hope that the description of this experience will prove of use to others who
seek to transfer knowledge and skills about gaming to other locations.
Gaming-Simulations and Planning in a Developing Country
183
References
AT ISSUE! In: Duke RD, Greenblat CS (1979) Game-generating games. Sage,
Newbury Park, CA
BAFA-BAFA. Shirts G (1973) Simile II, Del Mar (PO Box 910, Del Mar, CA 92014
USA)
CAPJEFOS: A SIMULATION OF VILLAGE LIFE. Greenblat CS et al. (1985) CSG
Enterprises, Princeton, NJ (301 N. Harrison St., Suite 156, Princeton, NJ 08540
USA)
COMMONS GAME. Powers R et al. (1982) Oceanside, OR (PO Box 307, Oceanside,
OR 97134 USA)
CRITICAL ENCOUNTERS. Greenblat CS (1990) CSG Enterprises, Princeton, NJ
(301 N. Harrison St., Suite 156, Princeton, NJ 08540)
FISH BANKS LTD. Meadows D, Fiddiman T, Shannon D (1990) IPSSR, Durham, NH
(University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824-3577 USA)
Greenblat CS (1987) Designing Games and Simulations. Sage, Newbury Park, CA
Greenblat CS, Duke RD (1974) Principles and Practices of Gaming-Simulation. Sage,
Newbury Park, CA
HEX. Duke RD et al. (1983) Ann Arbor, MI (Multilogue, Inc., 329 Park Lake Ave.,
Ann Arbor, MI 48103 USA)
RESPONSE: THE AFRICAN AIDS PLANNING GAME. Meadows D, Fiddiman T
(undated) IPSSR, Durham, NH (University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 038243577 USA)
STARPOWER. Shirts RG (1969) Simile II, Del Mar, CA (PO Box 910, Del Mar, CA
92014, USA)
STRATAGEM. See Stermon JD, Meadows D (1985) STRATEGEM-2: A microcomputer simulation game of the Kondratiev cycle. Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research, 16(2):174-202
Cathy Stein Greenblat is a professor of sociology at Rutgers University. She
has designed many successful simulations, has written several books, including Designing Games and Simulations (Sage), and has been an executive
board member of NASAGA and SAGSET. She is past president of ISAGA
and Editor Emeritus of Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal of
Theory, Design, and Research (Sage).
The NEW COMMONS GAME
Richard B. Powers l
Abstract. One purpose of the NEW COMMONS GAME is to demonstrate how Garrett
Hardin's "tragedy of the commons" works. Another purpose illustrates how differences
in the power to exploit a commons result in feelings of frustration, alienation, and the
desire for revolution on the part of players who begin the game disadvantaged. Finally,
the game permits disadvantaged players to ask questions of other players thus illustrating the power and limits of publicity to control the greed of the privileged players.
Differences between a college student game and a game played with participants at
the ISAGA '91 conference showed that students started with a much higher rate of
exploitation than the ISAGA players, almost exhausting the resource, in the first part of
the game. However, students reached a more stable cooperative exchange than did the
ISAGA participants in the latter part of the game. One reason for this difference may
be that a real consequence-points toward their grade-was contingent upon the
students' performance in the game, while this was not true for the ISAGA players.
Key words
commons
conflict; environmental education; simulation/game; tragedy of the
An increasing source of conflict in our world arises because of both real and
imagined scarcities of resources. For instance, in the Pacific Northwest of the
United States, a bitter fight is raging over whether logging or environmental
interests will control what happens to the area's remaining old-growth forests.
Examples of global resources which are treated as unmanaged commons are
all too plentiful and need not be restated here. There is a desperate need
to educate our children about the consequences of continuing to allow the
world's resources to be exploited primarily to make a small percentage of the
exploiters wealthy.
But how do we change the "exploit-to-exhaustion" mentality most effectively? I suggest that simulations/games have at least two advantages over
traditional educational approaches in inducing attitudinal and behavioral
changes. The first one is intellectual: players comprehend complex dynamic
1 Oregon Peace Institute, Suite 520, 921 S.W. Morrison, Portland, OR, 97205, US;
phones 503-228-8563 (w), 503-842-7247 (h)
184
The NEW COMMONS GAME
185
systems much more quickly and thoroughly by being active participants in the
system and discovering how it works for themselves (Abt 1987, Duke 1974,
Greenblat 1988). The second advantage, perhaps as important, is that players'
experiences in a simulation foster empathy for persons operating in real world
systems. Playing a game which models a systemic dilemma such as Hardin's
(1968) "tragedy of the commons" makes students much more appreciative of
the pressures and temptations of groups or nations to harvest maximum yields
of fish year after year. "Blaming the other" as an explanation is not resorted to
so easily after you have watched yourself yield to the trapping characteristics of
the commons system and become an exploiter.
The original COMMONS GAME has been played effectively with college
undergraduates for over 9 years at Utah State University and has demonstrated considerable effectiveness in promoting understanding of the commons
dilemma (Kirts et al. 1991, Powers 1985-1986). A new game, based on the
original, was developed which, I believe, increases the potential for learning.
In the original game a well-rehearsed facilitator could operate effectively with
up to 12 players. The new game uses two-person teams and the increase in
players approximates the number of students in a classroom which means that
an entire class can play the game at once. Second, the speed with which players
experience the consequences of their choices has been increased by restructuring the payoff matrices and related costs: collective choices to cooperate or
exploit the commons now have twice the effect on the resource. Third, the new
game incorporates a power differential, with some teams having as much as
three times the ability of other teams to exploit the resource. The differences in
power to exploit a commons model the real world, in which people of the
developed nations have the money and technology to exploit a global commons, such as the oceans, while peoples of developing nations are either
ignored or hired to help in the exploitation of the resource. This power
differential may engender feelings of frustration, alienation, and a desire for
revolution on the part of players who begin the game in the disadvantaged
position, much as it might in the peoples of the developing nations. Finally, the
new version provides for some redress for disadvantaged players. They can
expose "super exploiters" by playing a disclosure card which allows them to
ask another team a question which must be answered truthfully (at least, the
rules specify that a question must be answered truthfully). Thus, a team may
ask another how many exploitive choices it has made in the last five trials or
how many points -it currently has (a revealing question). Will the threat of
exposure by the less powerful be sufficient to convince the more powerful that
it is in everyone's interest to regulate the use of the commons?
Description of the Game
The NEW COMMONS GAME requires about 90 minutes to play and may be
played with as few as six players operating as individuals, or as many as 24
players operating in two-person teams. Teams choose one of five colors each
186
Powers
trial with the various colors representing cooperation (red), exploitation
(green) , withdrawal (yellow), punish exploiters (blue) and reward cooperators
(orange). Teams make their choices in private behind a shield so that only the
combined choice of the group is known. Communication is limited to conferences held at intervals if the majority votes to hold one (and are typically
not allowed until at least 10 and as many as 20 trials have been played). Pay (in
points) is determined by a payoff matrix which may increase or decrease
depending upon what the group does. If collective play is predominantly
cooperative , the payoff matrix gradually improves. If play is predominantly
exploitive, the matrix gradually grows worse. The power to exploit the commons is not equal-some teams are given a card with a multiplier number (a 2
or 3) and when the numbered card is played, it multiplies the exploitive choice
by that number. Other teams, while not having multiplier cards, may play their
disclosure card once during any part of the game. The team being asked the
question is instructed to answer truthfully .
Teams play for points, which represent units from a renewable resource such
as fish in the ocean. It may help some players to think of points as any item of
value to them, such as money. With college students , I use points earned in the
game as contributing a small amount towards their course grade. However, one
should not tell players that the winning team (or teams) will be given prizes , as
some adopters have done. This turns the game into a win-lose game and
eliminates one of the most important lessons the game has to offer, namely,
that all players can win something (even if some win more than others) and
100
N = 12 Teams
Conferences
80
....
No Conferences
I::
Q.I
U
~
~
Q.I
D
I2l
III
W/draw
Fine
Reward
-o--Coop
""-Exploit
60
Multiplier
Cards
40
tI
20
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Blocks of Five Trials
Fig.!. The percent of the five choices across trials in the game played with participants
at the ISAGA'91 conference. Cards which multiplied the power to exploit and cards
which permitted questioning of other teams were introduced after trial 10 (arrow) .
Conferences were permitted every four trials at trial 20.
The NEW COMMONS GAME
187
that the greater the cooperation among teams the greater the long-term collective take. The game permits several win-win strategies and players can discover
them if they are not forced to "beat the other person."
In addition to choices to cooperate and exploit, a team has three additional
choices. Suppose in a group composed of six players, one player choose blue; it
eliminates any profit for players choosing to exploit and imposes a 25-point fine
on them. An orange choice gives an additional 30 points to players choosing to
cooperate. Both blue and orange choices cost players five points per person or
30 points for a group of six players. Finally, a yellow choice pays the player
choosing it a fixed sum of points (30 points with six players) at any point in the
game. The game is designed to be played for about 50 trials with communication not allowed for the first 10-20 trials. The multiplier and disclosure cards
are handed out after the players have an opportunity to playa number of trials
and the game director is confident that the rules are understood. A third of the
players are given a multiplier card with a 3 on one side and a 2 on the other;
another third are given multiplier cards with only a 2, and the last third are
given one card with the letter D on it (disclosure card). This distribution of
power is arbitrary and the game director should experiment with alternative
distributons.
A Comparison of Two Games
A recent game was played at ISAGA in Kyoto, with 12, two-person teams
made up of individuals from more than eight countries. Most of the players
were academics or other professionals rather than students and all but one
team had a good command of English. Most were also knowledgeable with
respect to environmental issues, and so their results were not expected to be
similar to those found for most student groups-and indeed they were not.
Figure 1 shows the percent of the five choices made across the 36 trials played;
cooperation was chosen by a majority (60% or greater) of the teams throughout the game. The multiplier and disclosure cards were introduced after trial 10
and the increased ability to exploit resulted in a small increase in the number of
exploitive choices (fourth block of trials). Exploitation decreased significantly
with the introduction of conferences (after tiral 20) and there was also a slight
increase in the percent of cooperative choices. It might be thought from
examining the graph that this was a highly cooperative group with little dissension among teams. This was not the case, however. While the number of
multiple exploitive choices decreased from 11 to 3 from the no-conference to
the conference period, there were some exploitive choices in each block of
trials throughout the game. An analysis of the groups' discussions during the
conferences revealed one reason why the green choice continued to be played.
One strategy that emerges in groups evolving towards mutual trust and a stable
cooperative exchange is an alternating red/orange play with teams rotating the
orange play. This group added a blue to the alternation sequence ensuring that
any teams choosing green would be fined. This strategy, however, was only
188
Powers
100
80
....
~
U
4-17-91
N ==8Teams
4-10-91
N == 7 Teams
I
No
I
Conferences :
o
I
I
I
60
f2l
II
Fine
Reward
-o--Coop
~Exploit
20
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Blocks of Five Trials
Fig. 2. The percent of the five choices across trials in the game played with Portland
State University students. The game was played in two sessions held a week apart and
conferences were introduced after trial 10
adopted by about half of the teams with the result that occasionally the rotational sequence fell apart. The unpredictability introduced by the occasional
failure of a team to play its scheduled blue or orange choices encouraged some
teams to continue trying to score big by choosing green. Towards the latter half
of the game , there was a heated exchange between players of teams who were
bearing the entire cost of policing and rewarding others and the players in the
remaining teams. During this conference, all teams agreed to play the red/
orange/blue strategy but when one team played red instead of their scheduled
play, cries of "betrayal" arose from several players. After this incident, one
team argued that "we should all be free to do what we want"-a sure formula
for destruction of the resource.
Only two disclosure cards were used by the four teams who had them. Both
questions asked about the use of the blue or fine choice and were not particularly revealing. In conclusion, in spite of a high level of cooperative play
throughout the game, this group did not achieve a climate of mutual trust and I
was not optimistic that they would ever have reached a stable state of cooperation with all teams participating. I base my judgement on the continued use of
fines and the low but consistent exploitive choices made in the latter half of the
game. From our college student groups, we have learned that one of the best
predictors of a group eventually reaching one of the cooperative solutions and
maintaining it, is its decision to stop using the fine option after a history of
relying on fines to control exploitation .
The NEW COMMONS GAME
189
During the debriefing a spirited discussion ensued and, in spite of the
sophistication and expertise of the players, I felt that several had gained some
valuable insights into the workings of a commons and, perhaps, of themselves.
Figure 2 shows data from a commons game played in the Spring '91 quarter
at Portland State University over two sessions held a week apart; it is much
more representative of the play of college student groups than that in Fig. 1.
Exploitation starts out higher than cooperation and the rapid rate at which the
matrix decreases induces teams to switch increasingly to the yellow option as
both the cooperative and exploitive payoffs at first approach and then drop
below that for yellow. The orange choice is rarely played in the first half of the
game because players "see no reason to give points to others" at this juncture.
Conferences were introduced after trial 10 in the hope that communication
would slow down the rate of exploitation. (Multiple cards were not used with
this group because of the high exploitation rate). There was a strong appeal
made by several teams to "stay with yellow at least for 4 trials" (until the next
conference) and exploitation did drop considerably by the fourth and fifth
block of trials, but it is not clear how much of the yellow play was due to the
opportunity to communicate or to the low payoffs for the cooperative and
exploitive choices.
During the 24 trials of the first session, the red/orange alternating strategy
was suggested by two or three players, but there was some confusion during
conferences because several players talked simultaneously and, at times, only
to their immediate neighbors. The last two conferences ended with players
agreeing only to adopt the low-risk yellow strategy. The sudden emergence of
cooperation in the second session a week later was due to a forceful and
persuasive female who informed the group before the game started that
she had done some hard thinking and had a strategy that would work. She
expounded the red/orange/blue alternation strategy, organized which teams
were to do what, and successfully answered the questions and objections of the
other teams. After the first two trials in which the group fumbled with this
strategy, the red/orange/blue alternation was followed fairly closely for the
remainder of the game. There were occasional lapses as when a team forgot its
rotational choice, but these were tolerated. During the 27 trials of the second
session only five green choices were made and the group had recovered from a
dangerously low -5 matrix to a -3 matrix by the end of the game.
One explanation for continued use of fines throughout the game may be
related to the presence of one outspoken male student, playing without a
partner, who characterized himself as a "lone ranger" and expressed a desire
toward the end of the game to "be free to choose whatever he wanted." In an
earlier conference, there was a desire expressed to forego the blue choice
because it was "costing us and we don't need it." It was probably the lone
ranger who kept most of the teams insisting on staying with the red/orange/
blue strategy. Otherwise, I believe, that this group may have eliminated the
fines because of the discipline and trust they had developed during the second
session.
190
Powers
Comments on the Differences Between the Games
One of the differences between the two games was in the consequences of the
payoffs to the players. In the ISAGA game, the points were only game points,
while with the college students the points were tied to bonus class points which
applied towards their grade. This distinction is important because what the
points stand for makes players do different things. In the debriefing after the
ISAGA game, considerable discussion occurred between those who wanted to
try different things even when it went against a previous agreement and those
who argued that agreements should be kept. Those seeking variety argued that
cooperation "was boring" while the other side countered with, "So what?
Peace is boring, preventive medicine is boring, but that doesn't mean that these
objectives are not worthwhile"! Another anomaly occurred in one team playing a sacrificing role (orange) almost from the outset of the game in their belief
that this is what a "good citizen" should do in a commons. Students simply do
not behave this way because points have real meaning in their lives. Student
players consider the costs for playing an orange or blue carefully and do not
make these choices lightly. One comment I overhear regularly in student
games where a cooperative strategy has been reached and which was also made
towards the end of the PSU game was, "I know this is boring, but remember
the points count towards our grades. So let's keep going!"
Conclusion
The NEW COMMONS GAME, with two-person teams and with the changes
described earlier, produces results that are little different in process from the
original game played with individuals. The addition of a power differential in
the game raises salient issues having to do with equity and social justice in the
use of the world's resources. It may also permit those who are exploited to
discover ways of controlling super-exploiters through the effective use of the
disclosure cards, although in the ISAGA game they were not so used. I should
mention that when I use the game in my classes, I have encouraged students to
play the game more than once and many have. Approximately 90% or more of
experienced groups reach a stable cooperative exchange; one enormous benefit
is the feelings of relief players experience in learning that they can trust their
fellows, as well as a sense of accomplishment that they can solve this difficult
problem. In a repeat play of the game, players may also learn to ask more
revealing questions and learn, in the process, the power of publicity to control
runaway greed.
The NEW COMMONS GAME can also be played as a series of games, in
which the next generation starts play where the previous one left off. How
many generations can play the game before the commons is exhausted? In such
a series, the objective is to show teams from all generations that in an unmanaged commons, not only will the present group "have no game" when the
resource is inevitably consumed, as Hardin suggested, but that future genera-
The NEW COMMONS GAME
191
tions of players will lose out as well because they never had a chance to play
the game.
Acknowledgments
I thank Cathy S. Greenblat, Rutgers University, who has generously supplied
good measures of feedback, ideas, and insights, all of which have resulted in a
better game. Joe Thomas, Stephen Covery Leadership Center, provoked
several improvements in the game by his enthusiasm for experiment and by
asking good questions.
References
Abt C (1987) Serious games. Viking, New York
Duke RD (1974) Gaming: The future's language. Halsted, New York
Greenblat CS (1988) Designing games and simulations. Sage, Newbury Park, CA
Hardin G (1968) The tragedy of the commons. Science 162:1243-1248
Kirts CA, Tumeo MA, Sinz JM (1991) The COMMONS GAME: Its instructional value
when used in a natural resources context. Simulation & Gaming: An International
Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 22(1):5-18
Powers RB (1985-1986) The COMMONS GAME: Teaching students about social
dilemmas. Journal of Environmental Education 17(1):4-10
Richard B. Powers, emeritus professor of Psychology at Utah State
University, has been been a gamer since 1975 and is currently helping the
Oregon Peace Institute develop a peace education program. He is a member
of the Editorial Board of Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal
of Theory, Design, and Research. If he had to express his educational
philosophy in one sentence, it would be: "There is no reason why serious
learning should not also be fun!"
Asian Agriculture: A Tragedy
of the Commons in the Making?
Khalid Saeed!
Abstract. Patterns of growth in agricultural production existing in Asia and the changing
conditions of its agricultural resources are reviewed. A simple system-dynamics model
of the underlying generic relationships is then developed and experimented with using
computer simulation to illustrate how agricultural resources are being overstrained and
how the continuation of the policies causing this may precipitate a widespread decline in
agricultural production across the board. Technological solutions to this problem may
exist, but these will b~ ignored unless social and institutional reforms are introduced to
create the incentives for adopting sustainable agricultural practices. The general directions for these reforms are outlined.
Key words agriculture; computer simulation; public policy; renewable resources;
resource economics; sustainable development; systems; system dynamics.
This paper employs published time-series data from a cross-section of Asian
countries to illustrate the pattern of changes taking place in the agricultural
resource system of the region. The underlying trends indicate that while the
consumption base has expanded across the board through increases in population and income, food production has increased largely as a result of intensive cultivation. Agricultural land resources have mostly stagnated. In some
instances, agricultural land under cultivation has increased, but at the cost of a
reduction in forest land. The paper also translates the characteristic relationships underlying the interaction between agricultural management policies and
the ecological mechanisms of the agricultural resource system into a system
dynamics model. Experimentation with this model shows that a sharp decline
in agricultural production may be expected across the board unless sustainable
agricultural technologies are adopted. However, sustainable agricultural technologies, even when available, will not be put into practice unless the ownership of the resource system is internalized into the agricultural production
organization. As long as the technological and economic considerations
1 Industrial Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Box 2754,
Bangkok, Thailand; phone (66-2) 524-5681 (w), (66-2) 524-5902 (h), facsimile (66-2)
516-2126; telex 84276 TH
192
A Tragedy of the Commons in the Making
193
governing agricultural policy remain divorced from environmental information
concerning land resources and soil ecology, short-term private gains in production will be sought at the cost of the decay of the resource system that sustains
agriculture. Thus, an institutional framework needs to be created, so that
appropriate ecological information becomes a regular basis for the economic
decisions leading to appropriate technological choices.
Policies and Practices Consuming Agricultural Resources
Agricultural policies and practices currently in use or advocated are based on
two almost dichotomous paradigms: neo-classical economic theory and the
environmental movement. While economic theory attempts to create policies
for maximizing the welfare of society without considering the costs imposed on
the environment, the environmental movement has emphasized preserving the
environment without considering the pain this may cause to society. The two
paradigms do not have a common information base, a situation which seems to
have placed environmental issues and economic development agendas in conflict with each other [Saeed 1985].
The environmental issues stand at the losing end in this conflict. They tend
to be thrown into the background since information about resource stocks and
the ability of the environment to regenerate itself is scarce. Even when available, environment-related information rarely enters economic decisions at the
individual or state levels since time elapsing between a societal action and its
environmental impact is long and the short-run gains accrued from consuming
environmental slack have high utility. This creates irreversible damage in the
long run [Simon 1982, Hardin 1986].
Barring a few exceptions, the various statements made about indiscriminate
consumption of resources and deterioration of the environment have led to
much pontification and few viable policy agendas, possibly due to a compartmentalized treatment of the resource system and the human social organization that is sustained by it. There have been, albeit, several attempts made
to explain the decision processes creating the neglect of the resource environment. One of the seminal writings on this subject is by Hardin (1968). Entitled
"The Tragedy of Commons," Hardin's essay attempts to understand the
logic of the decisions creating individual gains at a cost to the commons.
Unfortunately, little if any effort has subsequently been made to translate this
understanding into the design of policy instruments that might influence the
dysfunctional decision processes.
Ecological constraints may become particularly stringent among the Asian
nations representing relatively older civilizations, since long-term existence
within their finite resource bases has created rather delicately balanced
resource environments with little slack in them as compared with many developed nations, which have been able to exploit virgin territories or to make
considerable resource transfers through colonization. Organizational slack, a
concept originally advanced by Cyert and March (1976), implies the accumula-
194
Saeed
tion of resources that may serve as security against natural shocks. Thus,
economic development strategies based on consumption of natural endowments may be quite appropriate when implemented in a land with ample
resource stocks. The same strategies may leave people in a vulnerable state,
with very low slack, when implemented in a land with a low level of resource
stocks. A rather sad example of the dire consequences of development not
cognizant of the environmental limitations is that of the Sahel region, where
international development efforts ignored the delicately balanced environment
creating an enormous tragedy from which the region has not yet recovered
[Picardi and Siefert 1976].
Evidence of a Tragedy of the Commons in the Making in
Asian Agriculture
Some 300 time series, covering fourteen selected countries representing the
Asia and Pacific region over the past three decades, were constructed from
published UN sources to serve as a data-base for the analysis. 2 The selected
countries were divided into three categories based on per capita income.
Australia, Japan, Korea and Singapore were placed in category (A), representing relatively high levels of income. Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and
Indonesia were placed in category (B), representing middle levels of income.
China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam were placed in category
(C), representing relatively low levels of income. This classification is consistent with the one proposed by the Asian Development Bank [Okita 1989]. It
also adequately covers the variety of the countries in the Asia and Pacific
region, in terms of geographic location, form of government and economic
conditions. The presence of a particular trend in the selected countries over all
three categories provided the basis for the deduction that the trend is pervasive
in the region covered by the sample.
Time series plots for the various categories of countries were prepared for
population, GDP and GDP per capita to examine growth in the consumption
base. The use of agricultural resources was examined through per capita food
production index, fertilizer and pesticide application, cultivable land and area
under forests. The following observations were made with respect to growth of
consumption base and the condition of renewable agricultural resources.
Growth of Consumption Base
Considerable population growth is shown over the three decades covered by
the data in all categories, although growth is much higher in the lower-income
countries. GDP growth is highest in the middle-income countries, while growth
rates in the high- and low-income countries are comparable. Consequently,
GDP per capita has grown at comparable rates in the high- and mediumincome countries due to moderate population growth in the former and high
economic growth in the later. However, high population growth rates and
A Tragedy of the Commons in the Making
195
moderate economic growth have led to stagnation in GDP per capita in the
low-income countries.
According to the projections of UNCHS (1987), population is expected to
continue to rise in all countries well into the twenty-first century, although the
rates of projected population growth are negatively correlated with the levels
of income-lower income countries experiencing higher and continued rates of
total population growth and urbanization. In all cases, the growth in the
consumption base originates from two sources, growth in population and
expansion in economic activity. It remains to be seen how far the growth in the
consumption base can be sustained by the natural resource base and the
environmental capacity.
Condition of Renewable Agricultural Resources
Food production per capita, an internal measure of the changes in food availability in each country, exhibits a rising trend in all cases in spite of considerable population growth, while agricultural land per capita shows a declining
trend, except in Australia, where it has been possible to maintain it at a steady
level. On the other hand, fertilizer and pesticide application has drastically
increased in all countries of the sample over the past three decades. This
indicates that increases in food production have been obtained largely through
an increasing intensity of cultivation and application of chemical fertilizers and
pesticides.
Irrespective of the increases in yield, the absolute quantity of cultivable land
has not increased much in most of the countries of the sample, except in
Australia, where it has been possible to commission large tracts of unused
land. In general, where cultivable land did increase, it was at the cost of the
forest area, which is already very small in the countries with a stagnant level of
land under agriculture. Some jumps again appear in the plotted data, due to
variations in the definitions used to delineate the forest area and agricultural
land categories.
Unfortunately, deforestation not only reduces valuable timber and fuel wood
resources, it is also known to cause soil erosion, water loss, flooding or
drought, desertification and silting of irrigation reservoirs, depending on the
particular function of a forest in the complex organic relationships existing in
the ecological system [Bowonder 1986]. In spite of this knowledge, about half
of the area under forests in the developing countries was cleared between 1900
and 1965. At current rates of deforestation, the rest is likely to disappear in 50
years [UNIESCAP 1986].
The observed trends in data taken from geographically, economically and
politically diverse set of countries show that in all cases, increase in agricultural production-a clearly private gain whether pursued by individuals or
collectives-has been achieved in the first instance by making intensive use of
the land resources viewed as capital inputs rather than an environmental
system. It is also evident that expansion in agricultural land has been achieved
by consuming forests-another environmental system which is important to the
196
Saeed
Children per
Couple
+/
Total
/cultivated
Land
(0) _+IP'~c,o
POPUlatiO)O
(
o
Deaths
_~atio
•
FOOTOPitO
3 ~'If-
G Y"'dI:OZ'_
LOO)
SUfficienz
~
Impr~ent
/ _l'' '90IiOO G
Desired Food
per capita
Land Use
New Varieties
LD'~:OIi
+
Fig. 1. Important feedback loops in the food production system
maintenance of agricultural land as a sustainable resource, but which is viewed
by agricultural individuals and collectives as an unused endowment. Both these
processes disregard proper maintenance of the means of production while
attempting to increase production in the short run, hence they are the main
building blocks of a tragedy of commons in making.
System Relationships in Non-Sustainable Agricultural
Development
Excessive use of agricultural land has been known to depreciate soil quality.
Soil degradation has occurred in many countries due to erosion, loss of soilnutrients, loss of texture, water logging and salinity, usually caused by intensive land use [Bowonder 1981]. Centrally-planned as well as market-economy
countries have encountered these problems. The market economies tend to
externalize private costs to the environmental commons since private decisions
often view the environment as a free resource. The centrally-planned economies, likewise, fail to internalize environmental costs because incentives are
provided to managers to boost production, not preserve the environment.
Furthermore, since the resources placed in the hands of the managers take no
A Tragedy of the Commons in the Making
197
account of scarcity value, opportunity cost or real price, the cost of using
resources is essentially irrelevant and competition absent. Consequently, there
appear wide-spread inefficiencies of production as well as environmental abuse
[Chandler 1987].
The food production system of the Asian countries can be characterized by
the feedback loops shown in Figure 1. Food fulfills nutritional needs of the
population; hence, food sufficiency is related to the average life expectancy.
An increase in population expands the food consumption base. Consequently,
food consumption is stepped up through intensive land use, high yielding seed
varieties and extensive irrigation-all of which degrade land in the long run.
Yield may also be increased or sustained through investment in land improvement, which is only resorted to after much damage has already been caused.
The model subsumes three subsystems: population, food production and the
ecology. The structure of each subsystem is discussed in Bach & Saeed
(forthcoming) .
The model was parameterized for the ten countries in medium- and lowincome categories of the sample. The countries of the high-income category
seemed to exercise technological options that were not based purely on
pressure. It was, therefore, not considered appropriate to apply the model to
those countries. Figure 2 summarizes the results of the simulations of the
model with ten parameter sets representing the ambient conditions in the
countries of the sample in the middle- and low-income categories.
It is observed that, while food production per capita can be sustained in most
cases until the year 2000 or later (possibly from increasing application of capital
inputs and intensity of cultivation), land quality may be expected to deteriorate
continuously. This may cause sudden declines in output at the turn of the
century unless concerted land conservation and reclamation efforts not
included in the model have been implemented. The countries most affected are
those demonstrating relatively higher population growth rates and more intensive land use. Similar trends obtained with the ten-parameter sets representing
the countries of the sample also show that the system is parameter insensitive.
Hence, the trends shown must be taken seriously by all countries of the region.
Since the magnitude of deterioration in the land quality index shown in the
simulation does not take existing land management programs into account, it
indicates only the volume of effort needed to overcome the deteriorating
trends. Yet, the results of the simulations are borne out by the experience of
many developing countries with large agricultural economies where fertile
agricultural lands have already been extensively damaged due to water logging,
salinity and erosion of top-soil, even though some of these countries have
already instituted extensive land-management programs [Allauddin & Tisdell
1988].
The trends observed in historical data provide persuasive evidence that, over
the course of the development process, munificence has been created by consuming the resource environment. The projections made with the help of a
model incorporating organic cause-and-effect relationships show that this process has gone far enough, so that it cannot be sustained for long into the
future.
....
Low Income Countries
'"
00
INDEX OF LAND QUALITY
(1970 = 100)
INDEX OF PER CAPITA FOOD PRODUCTION
(1970 100)
=
~
120 .----------------------------.
•
~;-:
lOa
80
i
·<:t~L,ETN.M
~-
40f-
201-
•
+
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0
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0
INDIA
1980
•a
20 f-
X
1985
CHINA
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NEPAL
PAKISTAN
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
0
L__ _L__ _~
1975
l-
40
01'____L-__L-__
1970
•+
CHllliA
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
INDIA
CHINA
NEPAL
60
60
1990
_ _~
1995
_ _~
_ _~
2000 2005
_ _J____
2010
2015
2020
!:I.
SRI LANKA
OLI__
1910
~
__
1975
__L___J ____L___L__
~L_
1980
1985
1990
1995
~
____L___~
2000 2005
2010
__~
2015
2020
TIME
TIME
Medium Income Countries
INDEX OF LAND QUALITY
(1970 =100)
INDEX OF PER CAPITA FOOD PRODUCTION
( 1970 = 100)
120rl---------------------------------------------,
120,r---------------------------------------------,
THAILAND
100t_-I·t--..I01__...
• =="H~M'LYSI
lOa
80
THAILAND
80
PHllLlPINES
60
PUILLIPINES " "
60"-
4J
'~
2l
a
INDONESIA
~
1970
INDONESIA
+
MALAYSIA
*a
PHILLIPINfS
+
THAILAND
1980
1985
•o
20
OLI__
1975
INDONESIA
40
1990
1995
2000 2005
TIME
2~O
2015
2020
1970
~
MALAYSIA
PUILLIPINES
HtAllAND
____
1975
~
__-L__
1980
1985
~
____L ___
1990
1995
~
__~
____L ___~
2000 2005
TIME
Fig. 2. Projections of food per capita and land quality index based on the model
2010
___J
2015
20~O
A Tragedy of the Commons in the Making
199
Generating Sustainable Agricultural Policies and Practices
A decision process cannot be divorced from its organizational context, and
it would be impossible to go beyond pontification on issues concerning a
commons unless an institutional framework accepting responsibility for the
commons is created. Sustainable agricultural technologies in the form of
energy-efficient crops and soil-preserving cultivation methods are now widely
available. However, there exist neither an adequate awareness of the environmental issues, nor an institutional framework to take responsibility for the
environment. Hence, sustainable technologies have a poor chance of being
adopted. Social and institutional policy directions must be pursued to create
responsible attitudes towards the environment and lead to the adoption of
sustainable technologies.
Social Policy Directions
In most countries, agricultural land ownership is concentrated in the hands of
only a few people. Hence, cultivators do not have a stake in the preservation
of the land they till (often on rental or share-cropping basis). Even when
cultivators do own the land they till, it is often in small tracts that must support
large self-employed families with a much higher priority on consumption than
on preservation. Finally, there may be an awareness of the environmental
issues and a commitment to preservation, but there are no institutional mechanisms for mobilizing individual initiatives into the maintenance and preservation activities that call for collective effort. Thus, the following social reforms
must precede any sustainable agricultural development initiative:
1. Fiscal instruments and direct intervention must be introduced for transferring absentee-held (both state and private) agricultural resources to the
cultivators, so that they have a stake in the preservation of these resources.
2. Extension services should be provided to help cultivators increase their
income, so that conservation can take priority over consumption.
3. Infrastructure development must be undertaken in order to increase social
mobility in the rural areas making it possible for the surplus labor to move
into other production sectors, reducing pressure on land.
4. Fiscal policies should be designed and implemented for creating a crop mix
that emphasizes food self-sufficiency on a long term basis reducing the
dependency on income generated from export of primary products.
5. Population control should be stepped up in order to contain food demand
and urbanization.
Institutional Policy Directions
Current approaches to national planning and policy design often entail fragmented efforts undertaken in the compartmentalized wings of government,
which are ultimately assembled into a statement of targets by the central
planning organization. This process can rarely identify organizational mechanisms for creating a change-a shortcoming which plans often ignore. Some-
200
Saeed
times, impromptu agendas originating at the top also determine the directions
of a plan. To create environmentally sound development policies, it is necessary to re-orient planning activity in order to make possible the design of
organizational instruments of change along with the preparation of statements
of targets. This calls for rethinking the structure of the planning institutions as
well as for education in socio-economic planning along the following lines.
1. The information base affecting the policy space in the preparation of plans
must be expanded to include geological and environmental information
and models of organic relationships which may be experimented with to
generate environmentally rational scenarios.
2. An information system must be created to ensure that the expanded information base does not reside in idle compartments but is actively accesible
for making private and public decisions.
3. Since environmental issues may clash with powerful corporate and political
interests, environmentally conscious institutions must be created in the form
of private, non-government and government interest groups. Such groups
must also be given legislative protection and a role in public decision
making.
Conclusion
This paper has attempted to illustrate how the pervasive indifference towards
the conservation of the environment on the part of the public and government
institutions are creating dangerous long-term trends depleting agricultural
resources in Asia. Such attitudes arise from a view, in both private and public
decisions, that emphasizes increasing production in the short run through
externalizing costs on the environment whose maintenance is not a responsibility of any of its beneficiaries. The increased availability of production,
however, also causes growth in the consumption base, which limits availability,
requiring further rises in production. The environmental abuse so inflicted
has, by now, created serious deteriorating trends which threaten sustained
agriculture in the region.
The policy space for the private and public decisions must clearly be
expanded to incorporate the information about stocks and organic relationships in the interaction between human decisions and the environment, if the
deteriorating trends are to be reversed. This is not a simple task and would
require major organizational reform, both in planning and use of information
and in changing existing attitudes.
Notes
1. Research for this paper was partly supported by the United Nations Economic and
Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP) under a consulting agreement.
Earlier drafts have been presented at the Environment and Policy Institute
A Tragedy of the Commons in the Making
201
(EAPI), East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii in July 1990, and AIT Workshop on
Sustainable Development, Khao Yai, Thailand in April 1991.
2. Data taken from Statistical Yearbooks for Asia and Pacific. 1988,84,80,78,77,76,
74, 72 and 70. New York: UN Publications; World Energy Statistics 1950-64. New
York: UN Publications; Quarterly Bulletin of Statistics. 1989. FAO; Environmental
Data Report. 1987. UNEP; Demographic Yearbook 1978, 1979. New York: UN
Publications; World Resources 1987. New York: World Resources Institute; World
Population Prospects. 1988, 1989. New York: UN Publications. All monetary data
has been converted to US dollar equivalents. Food Production indices based on
1979-81 = 100. Some of the time series required unit conversions and reconciliation
of contradicting numbers. In all cases, more recent numbers were preferred over the
older data. Some of the missing data cells were computed through interpolation
between existing entries.
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viable solution. System Dynamics Review
Bowonder B (1981) The myth and reality of high yield varieties in Indian agriculture.
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Hardin G (1986) Filters Against Folly. Viking Press, New York
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76(6):1-10
Saeed K (1985) An attempt to determine criteria for sensible rates of use of material
resources. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 28(4):311-323
Simon H (1982) Models of Bounded Rationality. Cambridge, MIT Press, MA
The World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our Common
Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York
UN/ESCAP (1986) Environmental and Socio-Economic Aspects of deforestation in
Asia and Pacific. Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting. United Nations,
Bangkok
UNCHS (1987) Global Report on Human Settlements 1986. Oxford University Press,
Habitat Nairobi
UNEP (1987) Environmental Data Report. 1987. UN Publications, New York
United Nations. 1988, 84, 80, 78, 77, 76, 74, 72 and 70. Statistical Yearbooks for Asia
and Pacific. New York: UN Publications
United Nations (1950-64) World Energy Statistics. UN Publications, New York
United Nations (1979) Demographic Yearbook 1978. UN Publications, New York
United Nations (1988, 1989) World Population Prospects. UN Publications, New York
United Nations (1988) World Resources 1987. World Resources Institute, New York
Three Simulation/Games and Their Impact
on Participants
Ludmilla l. Kryukova 1
Abstract. Three types of simulation/games on environmental issues are presented, and
the effects of these three types on the participants are examined. In the first type of
simulation, where participants interacted only with the computer, stress levels were
high, but participants became aware of the importance of rules. In the second simulation, interaction took place among participant groups and the atmosphere was more
relaxed, but groups tended to make ecologically unsound decisions. In the third simulation, participants had to take personal responsibility for their decisions and arrived at
effective environmental and economic policies.
Key words
ecology; environment; impact on participants; simulation/gaming
Our approach to simulation/games is based on a game-image conception
(Kryukov and Kryukova 1988). The game-image deals with both the impact the
model has on the players and the element of realism. In 1988, a session entitled
"Simulation Games in Ecology" was conducted in the Department of Biology
at Moscow State University. This paper describes the characteristic features of
three out of six of the interconnected games demonstrated at that session, as
well as the different impacts they had on the players.
STRATEGEM-2
This is a computerized simulation/game of the Kondratyev Cycle, which deals
with the economic long wave (Sterman and Meadows 1985). The game focuses
on the capital and production sectors. The initial reaction to the game was
negative, as the players, mostly biologists and geologists by profession, were
threatened by the economic nature of the game. This fear proved to be an
obstacle to their comprehension of the introductory lecture. After the lecture,
the players (two per computer) read the game rules from the display and
discussed them with a partner.
1 Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Soviet Academy of Sciences, Krasikova
Str 32, 117418 Moscow, USS(Russia)
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Impact of Ecology Games
203
To involve the players in participating more fully in the game, we gave them
questionnaires which encouraged them to analyze their decision-making skills
and to evaluate their courses of action. The questionnaire revealed that only
about 40% of the players felt they had any amount of control over the system.
The remaining 60% felt they were at the mercy of outside forces.
Our experience in organizing numerous games has shown that this reaction is
normal. The first stage of a game usually produces a strong and unfavorable
impression. After the introductory lecture, participants tend to prepare for a
game as if it were a traditional seminar. It is only after the game that they
realize that any active method demands more knowledge, attention, and personal involvement. Some players did not want to admit their failures, although
they were insignificant, and blamed the outcome of the game on the leaders or
the game itself, saying that the rules were not fully clarified. Some players did,
however, become more self-critical.
Debriefing the game was crucial; it allowed the players to become aware of
the advantages and specific features of active-learning methods. The effectiveness of individual decisions and strategies was analyzed, and the essence of the
wave cycle was revealed. We were also able to compare the processes in the
game with those from the real world. These included such issues as water
supply and overdoses of mineral and organic fertilizers. The discussion resulted
in participants gaining further insight into the game and establishing analogies
with the real world. Fortunately, the initially negative reaction gave way to
surprise and a desire for further clarification concerning the game results.
Fish Banks
This game (Meadows et al. 1987; for a review see Crooka1l1990) proved to be
very captivating for the participants. The rules were explained on the first
day. The participants were grouped into teams with names like "Albatross,"
"Green Bay," and "Southern Cross." In the game, each team makes several
decisions, such as how many new ships to order, whether to buy ships at an
auction or from other teams, and whether to send their ships to sea, to coastal
banks, or to the harbor. Decision results calculated by the computer are given
to teams and enable them to make decisions for the next round.
The overall strategy adopted is interesting. As in STRATEGEM-2, participants constantly increased their production capabilities. However, in the
first game there was an opportunity for participants to stop the process, while
in FISH BANKS the decisions led to a drastic decrease in fish stocks and made
normal fish regeneration impossible. This second game, in comparison with the
first, was characterized by the participants' interaction in all processes. The
newspaper provided a forum where participants could express and read various
opinions. It was possible to view the course of the development of the game
and situations as a whole. This greatly contributed to the development of
personal contacts (which was not foreseen in the original version).
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Kryukova
An interesting strategy was chosen by the Green Bay team. As one of the
participants put it:
To prevent damage to the fish banks, our ships did not leave the harbor
until the end of the decade. We strictly adhered to the following tacticswe did not do any net fishing and subsisted wholly by selling ships and
accruing interest on our money . We developed an intricate economic
model, which had a positive effect on the environment at the hands of our
competitors, and we reduced the damage from our own activity to a
minimum.
This team was also the first to advertise their ships through the newspaper.
This stimulated contacts with the "Atlantic" and "Golden Arrow" teams.
Immediately after the game, we had a brief discussion, and then the participants were given a questionnaire. The goal of the questionnaire was to help
the participants analyze both their own and their partners' behavior in the
game, and to compare it to the real world. A detailed analysis of the game
events and of the participants' opinions was carried out by the administrators
within a week, and then a special debriefing session was held.
A complete picture of what happened during the simulation could be reconstructed only with the help of the game administrators. In comparing this
picture with the participants' impressions, it became clear that some participants were unable to assess the situation, and none of the participants were
able to reconstruct the picture in its entirety. As one of the participants noted,
reconstructing an overall true picture could only be done at the debriefing
session.
In the final discussion, a number of interesting insights emerged. Only two
participants regarded the simulation as merely a "game." Those participants
whose real jobs were directly related to fisheries remarked that similar situations are typical not only of Western countries, but of the Soviet Union as well.
"The game model is applicable to the activity of any enterprise run on a selfsupporting basis. The game is a simplified version of real-life situations." Some
participants gave contradictory and sometimes evasive answers. There was no
sense of realism felt by the participants during the course of the game, but after
the end of FISH BANKS they admitted that similar things did happen in real
life. It was suggested that, in the game, economics should stimulate ecological
policies and penalties should be enforced for ecologically-damaging actions.
Although in the long run fish companies found the depletion of fish financially
damaging, the participants were of the opinion that this happened too late.
Such non-ecological policies should have been stopped at the initial stages.
This discussion revealed that participants were ready to progress on to the
next stage of the session. Here, an effort would be made to work out strategies
that would be both economically and ecologically sound. Again, some of the
participants did their best to lead the discussion away from their personal
responsibilities and towards the design of the game. They tended to regard
what had happened without any sense of realism, but as a caricature of their
ecological ideals. Their injured pride spilled over into finding fault with the
Impact of Ecology Games
205
game type and structure: It was not that the game was ecologically weak; the
trouble seemed to be in the team's interpretation of the game. There was little
data upon which to analyze each participant's personal successes and failures,
and we could only examine the role of the team as a whole. This allowed
individual participants to shirk responsibility and to lay blame on the game
itself.
Thus, we needed a game where every participant would make personal
decisions and be held accountable for the consequences. We needed a game
which (1) provided sanctions against unsound ecological decisions, (2) gave the
participants the opportunity to make individual judgements, and (3) enhanced
coordination among participants. Another simulation fulfilled these requirements, and became the heart of the third simulation stage.
AT THE LAKE
This Soviet game is a modified version of the COMMONS GAME (Powers et
al. 1983). We tailored the game to our audience and modified it to include
characteristics of the two previous games. Six to eight people can take part in
the game, each of them playing the role of a company manager, with all companies consuming the same natural resource-water from the lake. Decisions
are made behind special screens and by choosing cards of different colors. Red
indicates nonpurified water disposal, which results in huge profits but spoils the
lake for that period. Several red decisions thus lead to rapid lake pollution.
Green indicates water purification, which leads to a considerable decrease in
profits from its utilization, but does not change the ecological condition of the
lake. Other cards include violet (indicating a fine against red decisions), blue
(reinforces green decisions), and yellow (production using no water with a
modest but guaranteed income). The game is run for 40 months (i.e., 40 game
rounds). Every 12 months the lake is purified by spring flows. Every 8 months
the participants are allowed to hold a conference. The goal of each participant
is to get the highest score. In all decisions, profit depends on the state of the
water, and is shown on a graphic model.
The participants knew, from their experiences in the previous games, that
they should use natural resources carefully. They also knew from the very
beginning what the consequences would be if they chose only red. The temptation, however, was too strong and the majority played red at the beginning of
the game, the water in the lake became polluted and the participants' profits
decreased. At this moment, a public inspector surfaced, and instead of seeking
profits, chose to impose a fine (violet).
At a conference, participants have an opportunity to engage in a face-to-face
dialogue. More often than not, they decide on a common green action, but
soon become disillusioned since there are always people who continued to
pollute the lake water in order to boost their own profits. At later conferences,
a more realistic pattern usually emerges, and penalties are used as well. If
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Kryukova
somebody notices that an agreed policy is being violated, the debate at the next
conference will be heated and some participants made to feel awkward.
According to Komarov (1986), there are four types of participants in the
game:
1. Lucky individualists: participants who seek victory at any cost and pollute
water more often than others. However, they usually manage to avoid the
fines (by changing red for green when yellow is played) whenever they have
the feeling that the situation demands it.
2. Unlucky individualists: participants who take risks, but often get fined and
suffer losses instead of expected profits because they have no feel for the
situation.
3. Passive public participants: people who prefer ecologically sound types of
technology. In the game, however, they do not try to stop aggressive
individualists.
4. Active public inspectors: people who, instead of working and using natural
resources themselves, prefer to use sanctions against individualists.
In a second phase of the game, participants are grouped into teams of two or
three to work out economically viable projects which guarantee greater profits.
The game was played four times with different participants. The participants of
the third and fourth run were asked not only to draw their own plans, but to
analyze and make critical comments as to projects worked out by the previous
teams.
The most idealistic projects relied exclusively on the conscience of the water
users and were not supported by any economic sanctions put forward by the
individualists. When they were shown by other participants to have pursued
their own private interests, they were both upset and embarrassed. More
complicated and unrealistic projects were put forth by passive participants.
Active public inspectors turned out to be the most practically minded. The
special ecology department managed to work out a project that was economically realistic only after the fourth run, that is, after they had analyzed and
fully discussed the previous unsuccessful projects. By the end of the session,
the participants had become deeply aware of their responsibility to the world
and of the consequences of their actions.
Summary
We have dwelt upon three game types. In the first game, teams only interacted
with a computer. In the second game, they interacted with each other, with
each team's decisions influencing the environment, and thus indirectly affecting
all other teams. There are no teams in the third game. Participants influenced
the environment on an individual basis and communicated only while holding
conferences.
The impact of the game on the participants and the image portrayed greatly
depend on the game type. The first game caused stress, but at the same time
Impact of Ecology Games
207
the participants realized the importance of rules for the game. In the second
game, people were more relaxed, which balanced out differences, such as age
and social position, but at the same time caused collective control problems,
such as how to stimulate sound ecological modes of behavior. In the third
game, the participants managed to coordinate their activities and to show their
abilities in working out ecologically and economically effective policies. However, the game brought about a certain tension between the participants, since
they became aware of their responsibility for the results of their activities.
At the end of the session, most of the participants had more or less detailed
plans for continued active environmental protection. Here is what two participants said:
All of us are to some extent responsible for environmental protection
problems. It serves no purpose to hold other people accountable for these
problems and leave yourself blameless. My next project will be aimed at
teaching children sound ecology rules by way of simulation games.
I have been preoccupied of late with trying to save certain regions from
a narrow, bureaucratic approach to ecological and economic problems.
I'll continue my efforts by advocating positive ecological actions in such a
way as to encourage people to influence their leaders to introduce better
environmental protection laws.
References
Crookall D (1990) Review of FISH BANKS, LTD. Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 21(2):208-211
Komarov VS (1986) Methodological instructions for AT THE LAKE (in Russian).
Institute of Industrial Economy and Ogranization, Soviet Academy of Sciences,
Novosibirsk
Kryukov MM, Kryukova LI (1988) Principles of economic reality: Reflexion on business
games (in Russian). Sciences, Academy of Moscow
Meadows DL, Fiddaman I, Shannon D (1987) FISH BANKS, LTD: A microcomputerassisted simulation on the principles of sustainable management of renewable
resources. University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH
Powers RB, Duus RE, Norton RS (1983) COMMONS GAME. Utah State University,
Logan, Utah
Sterman JD, Meadows D (1985) STRATEGEM-2: A microcomputer simulation game
of the kondratiev cycle. Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory,
Design, and Research 16(1):174-202
Ludmilla I. Kryukova works at the Central Mathematical and Economics
Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. She has been
involved with ISAGA for a number of years and has recently become
Associate Editor of Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal of
Theory, Design, and Research (Sage).
Global Change and the Cross-Cultural
Transfer of Policy Games
Ferenc L. Toth 1
Abstract. Studying and managing global change presents new challenges for the scientific and policy-making communities, and they require improved forms of communication at the science-policy interface. This often involves cross-cultural transfer of policy
games, strategic simulation exercises, and techniques to address long-term, global problems in their policy context. Over the past 2 years, the author was involved in a United
Nations Environment Program (UNEP) project looking at the socioeconomic impacts
and policy responses resulting from climate change in Southeast Asia, and used the
policy exercise (PE) approach to generate local and national scale policy responses to
the potential impacts of climate change in Malaysia and Indonesia. The study in
general, and the activities related to the PEs in particular, provided valuable insights
into the perception of the global problems, attitude towards long-term issues, environmental risk perception, and the management of uncertainties. The second group of
lessons is associated with the cross-cultural transfer of a strategic gaming exercise rooted
primarily in the North American and European cultures (war games, operational
games, structured workshops) to the Southeast Asian cultures. Dramatic cultural differences have been revealed in the preparation phase and at the PE workshops in the
formality/informality of procedures, in the styles of debating, criticizing and challenging
each other's ideas, and in the issues related to authority and the hierarchy of people and
institutions.
Key words climate change; climate policy; cross-cultural transfer of games; decision making; environmental management; policy exercises; risk management; risk
perception
The history of mankind has been characterized by a series of clashes between socioeconomic development and the natural environment. The term
global change emerged relatively recently to describe changes in the global
biogeochemical systems that involve long time horizons (decades to centuries),
large geographical scales (continents to global), and complex interactions
among the sources and impacts of those chang~s
(global energy production to
I Department of Economic Geography, Budapest University of Economics, Fovam ter
8, Budapest, H-1093, Hungary; phone (361)-117-6706 (w); facsimile (361)-117-67-14;
telex 224186 mkke h
208
Cross-Cultural Transfer of Policy Games
209
climate change to crop production). These issues are characterized by significant scientific uncertainties and are the subject of intense policy debates.
Studying and managing global change challenges both the scientific and the
policy-making community, and they require improved forms of communication
in order to interface. Given the temporal and spatial scales of the problems and
possible remedies, there are several cross-cultural transfer and communication
processes involved in all aspects of global change. The bulk of new scientific
knowledge is created in the developed countries of the North and it is often
viewed with suspicion in the South when it suggests policy implications that
would prove disadvantageous for them. The management side necessarily
involves globally accepted strategies in the forms of international agreement
and conventions, but sharing the burdens of such strategies often invites bitter
debate.
In the past few years the most widely researched and discussed component of
global change was the issue of climate change resulting from the increasing
concentrations of radiatively active trace gases in the atmosphere. Two
major types of policy-related investigations were undertaken to manage the
problem. The first type- of study was concerned with prevention strategies:
how to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to stabilize climate change. The second type was aimed at identifying adaptation
strategies: what are the most significant impacts of climate change and how
might societies adapt to those impacts. The science-policy interface and the
cross-cultural communication between more-developed countries (MDCs) and
less-developed countries (LDCs) are becoming increasingly important as the
need to manage global climate change and its impacts becomes more apparent.
The policy exercise (PE) approach (Brewer 1986, Toth 1988a, 1988b) has
been tested and subsequently used in the context of several long-term, largescale environmental problems in Europe and North America since the mid
1980s. Over the past 2 years, the author was involved in a United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP) project looking at the socioeconomic impacts
and policy responses resulting from climate change in Southeast Asia (UNEP
1990). PEs were organized to provide a structured interaction between scientists and policy-makers to generate local and national policy responses based
on the potential impacts of climate change in Indonesia and Malaysia. This
paper is intended to summarize the problems of transferring the PE approach
to the Asian culture and the steps required for use in the context of a climate
change study.
Perceptions of Climate-Related Risks in Southeast Asia
The UNEP climate change study in Southeast Asia consisted of two major
components. Objectives of the scientific component were to identify the most
important impact areas and to assess possible impacts of climate change on the
environment, natural resources, economy, and social aspects of those areas.
The policy component was aimed at developing and analyzing possible strategic
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policy responses to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change, thereby miniming environmental, economic, and social disruptions related to those impacts.
To understand the difficulties of adapting the PE approach to this particular
study and of using it in Southeast Asia, we first needed to understand general
attitudes toward global environmental problems and perception of the risks
associated with local impacts of global climate change.
The first issue was that of the long-term horizon. GHGs responsible for the
changing radiative balance of the atmosphere accumulate slowly and have a
long residence time. Most climate studies tend to look several decades or even
a century into the future in order to project the climatic implications of various
GHG emission scenarios. Impact assessments use these projections as input,
hence their results are also several decades in the future. While this fact seems
to cause no major problem in perceiving the severity of the potential risks in
MDCs, it is apparently a major problem in LDCs.
The long-term projection of future prospects for the economy and society is
apparently not alien to the nations involved in the study. In 1990 Malaysia
completed an ambitious and well-conceived long-term development plan
(Outline Perspective Plan), and the achievements demonstrated the breadth of
vision and the depth of wisdom of its creators. At the time of the climate study,
a group of people from all walks of life and from various government offices
was busy finalizing the Second Outline Perspective Plan, which would provide important policy guidelines and development strategies for the next
decade.
The long-term development strategies tend to consider a variety of impacts
from the global economy as they might affect the options of the domestic
economy. However, it seems to be difficult to include environmental components such as climate among the factors that are (at least partly) driven
externally. While it is most obvious for strategic planners to prepare several
variants to cope with uncertainties of the external economic factors; it is much
more difficult for them to think in terms of several possible climate scenarios.
If climate is changing, there is little we can do about it, so why bother?
Besides these perhaps fatalistic views, the perceptions of how serious the
climate-associated risks are and the attitudes toward how urgently and what
kind of management actions are needed also depend on the prevailing patterns
of social management. In Malaysia paddy farmers are fairly dependent on
local and national governmental organizations: they provide irrigation water,
seeds, and fertilizers for the farmers, and there is even a cash subsidy when
farmers sell their produce to authorized government dealers. Under such
circumstances, when the agricultural sector is so tightly regulated, all the
initiatives, including those to prepare and plan adaptive measures to impacts of
climate change, must also come from governmental organizations.
In Thailand the case is almost the opposite. Farmers freely decide what
to grow and they benefit from fluctuating market prices. Therefore, they
have experience in switching crops and cultivating techniques as the market
dictates. They are probably much more self-reliant in choosing their adaptation
strategies as well.
Cross-Cultural Transfer of Policy Games
211
Culturally Rooted Concerns about PEs
The project involved a long preparation phase, in which expert teams in the
participating countries worked with external consultants to prepare detailed
assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on various agricultural
crops, river basins, and coastal areas. The impact assessments were intended to
serve as primary inputs to the PE workshops where senior policy-makers would
review the potential impacts and prepare strategic responses in their own areas
of the governmental management scheme. It became apparent in the very early
phase of the project that both sides had serious concerns about interacting with
the other in such an informal setting as suggested by the original PE protocol.
Two main reasons seemed to be behind these concerns, and they were both
related to a single cause deeply rooted in the Asian culture.
The first concern was related to the subject matter on both the expert and
policy sides. It was clear from the very beginning that the project was expected
to generate and analyze the widest possible range of policy response options to
climate change impacts, and without the policy-makers' contribution it was
simply impossible to achieve this objective. Still, a recurring theme at the first
preparatory meetings of the Core teams of experts in each country was whether
we should involve senior policy-makers in the project at all. They felt that their
present knowledge about the regional and local impacts of climate change
and the uncertainties characterizing the rate and magnitude of global climate
change did not justify the involvement of the policy community at this point.
"Aren't we going too fast when we want to present highly uncertain results to
senior policy-makers?" asked a senior member of one national study group at
the first meeting.
Senior policy-makers who were approached for potential participation in the
PE workshop were initially concerned because of their limited knowledge
about the subject matter, the very distant horizons characterizing the climate
change issue, and because of their fear that the climate problem (and some of
its policy implications) is yet another environmental issue pursued by MDCs
that might threaten their economic development. Although they appeared to
be ready to discuss long-term development issues where they felt comfortable
to use their strategic planning perspectives, their inclination was to consider
environmental repercussions of development at the same time scale.
The second concern on both sides originated from the unfamiliarity with the
PE procedure. The expert community was afraid of being trapped into questions for which they do not have ready answers. Moreover, even the most
senior members of the expert team had only occasional and largely ceremonial
personal contacts at the senior level of the policy community which was
expected to participate in the PE workshop. The initial fears of the policymakers were no less significant. They were worried about the roles they were
expected to play and had at the beginning no idea how they would be expected
to perform. An additional major concern was that what they said at the PE
workshop might be taken as an official standpoint and, even worse, might be
publicly cited.
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This kind of very reserved reaction to an invitation to a PE is quite the
opposite of my experience in the West, where scientists are usually eager to get
the attention of the policy community and both sides seem to welcome the
opportunity to address each other in an informal setting. Others have similar
experiences. For example, Clark (1986) "found the best scientists and the best
policy people expressing a growing dissatisfaction over their inability to address
each other, except through stultifying layers of reports and bureaucracy or in
ritualized and guarded public encounters. Carefully designed policy exercises
might provide the channel and forum for the communication they seek." This
mutual interest in the West is coupled with a variety of increasingly appropriate
and comprehensible techniques to present and use uncertain or incomplete
scientific knowledge in policy formulation.
These techniques are well-known in Asia as well, but the traditional cultural
heritage makes it difficult to use them. The underlying reason' for all the
concern listed above stems from the fear of "losing face." Loss of face is a
difficult concept to understand for Westerners. "It has been described as:
making someone feel embarrassed; making someone feel humiliated; causing
someone to feel inferior; giving insult to someone" (Craig 1979).
Scientists and experts were afraid of losing face when they presented the
results about patterns and local/national impacts of climate change which are
not at the level of scientific reliability as other matters on which they usually
report. They would rather not say anything, even if it took 10-20 years to
achieve the "appropriate" level of scientific evidence, than they would risk
losing face by speaking out on such an uncertain issue only to be proved
wrong. Policy-makers, on the other hand, were concerned about their loss of
face because they were expected to propose strategic responses based on
limited and uncertain information (even though the information was the best
available) and their policy proposal might turn out to be profoundly wrong
'
later in light of newly acquired scientific knowledge.
To make things more complicated, many participants on both the expert and
policy sides had Western education and several years of exposure to Western
culture. They nevertheless preserved the basic values and traditions of the
Asian culture. The result is that their professional activities are more directly
based on their Western education, while their interpersonal relationships
preserved the customs of their Asian heritage.
A PE workshop is a very special mix of professional activities (scenario
building, policy formulation, and evaluation) and diverse forms of intense
personal interactions (expert teams vs. policy teams, mixed small groups
assigned to special tasks and rearranged several times in the course of the
workshop). Faced with something new, the Asian cultural heritage of loss of
face dominated the attitude of the expert and policy communities at the outset.
One major challenge for the PE facilitator in the preparation phase was how to
relax the concerns about losing face and prove that participation in the PE
workshop would be rewarding for both sides.
Cross-Cultural Transfer of Policy Games
213
Relaxing the Concerns in the Preparation Phase
Recognizing these concerns and cultural differences early in the project helped
in the design of the preparation phase of the PE. The PE protocol (Toth
1988b) provides a variety of techniques specifically suited for this task: a series
of preparatory meetings of the Core group of experts, pre-interviews and
briefing material for the policy participants, and the channelling of evolving
perspectives and information between the two groups.
The concerns were slowly and gradually relaxed as the project evolved. The
key argument was that PEs are specifically designed to address issues involving incomplete scientific knowledge and uncertainties by offering multiple
scenarios of "not impossible" futures. This should make clear to the policy
participants that what they are dealing with is in the realm of possibility. The
objective is not to find the single best management strategy (which would be
impossible anyway), but to identify robust strategies that would provide appropriate mitigation regardless of the exact timing and nature of the climate
change and its regional impacts.
The expert teams gradually became more self-confident as they worked
through the impact assessments and recognized the importance of the study by
learning the magnitude of the possible problems (the severe local and regional
impacts of climate change). The teams used computer simulation models and
other advanced impact assessment techniques which increased their selfconfidence in the plausibility of the results. Preparatory meetings of the Core
group provided the opportunity to share their results with each other and to
rehearse their presentations. Knowns and unknowns were sorted out and it
became clear that input from the potential users of their results (the policy
community) would be extremely valuable for their own future work.
The policy community had similar fears at the beginning. Their knowledge
about climate change and the potential local impacts was not surprisingly very
limited and they did not feel comfortable engaging in professional discussions
on a topic about which they knew so little. The pre-interviews were therefore
partly turned into private briefings for the policy-makers whom we wanted
to invite to the workshops. The facilitator conducting the interviews first
summarized the basic problems and processes of global climate change. The
intimate atmosphere and the privacy of these briefings practically eliminated
the danger of losing face by the senior policy people which could have resulted
from acknowledging ignorance, especially in the presence of subordinates.
The next part of the briefing in the pre-interviews was an overview of the
preliminary results produced by the expert teams concerned with regional and
national impacts of climate change. As the presentation proceeded from the
first-order biophysical impacts to higher-order economic and social implications,
the interest of the policy-makers increased greatly. The real breakthrough
came when they realized that their own long-term development programs
(rural development, elimination of poverty, modernization of agriculture, land
use planning in coastal areas, flood protection schemes, and water management
in river basins) were all affected by the impacts of climate change. From this
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Tath
point on, they were eager to hear more from the experts even though it was
made clear to them that uncertainties about the impacts were significantly
higher than in other cases involving expert advice.
Parallel to making progress on the subject matter (impact assessments by the
experts, briefings and defining the policy context with the help of policymakers), the informality of personal interactions at the PE workshop increased. Rules, roles, and procedures were established by using elements of
the PE protocol that were felt most appropriate by the invited policy-makers.
Here I observed that Asian cultures are much more formal and much more
sensitive to superior-subordinate relationships than Western cultures. Therefore, the procedure involved more formal contributions to the workshops
(short presentations, short "speeches") from both the expert and policy sides,
as opposed to the quick rotation of short contributions (questions, short
answers, new questions) common to workshops in Western culture. The very
open and sometimes heated confrontations of views and opinions, which
characterize PE workshops in the West, were turned into a milder and cooler
style of discussion.
From a Western point of view, these procedural changes may have reduced
the efficiency of the process, but they had one clear advantage: they worked.
Plunging into the exercise with Western style rules, procedures, and facilitation
would have produced a disaster: participants losing interest quickly and withdrawing politely after the first few hours.
Conclusions
Despite the strong initial reservations towards a PE type of interaction between
experts and policy-makers, I successfully conducted PE workshops in Indonesia
and Malaysia. The presentations and discussions at the workshops greatly
enhanced the quality of results of the project as a whole. The PE workshops
proved to be a unique opportunity for experts to present their findings and
explain all the current shortcomings of the data, analytical techniques, and
results; and for policy-makers to learn about a global environmental risk that
will have to be taken into account as it will inevitably affect outcomes of their
long-term development programs.
Despite the overall success of the PEs in the project, there were problems and difficulties as well. Probably the biggest drawback at the workshops
resulted from the fact that there was only a partial overlap of policy people
who were briefed and pre-interviewed in the preparation phase and those who
participated in the workshops. There was a striking difference in the attitudes
and performances of the two groups. Those participants who went through
the pre-interviews were much more productive and cooperative. They were
familiar with the subject matter and understood the objectives of the project
and their role in it. Once again, the lesson is that the time and money invested
in the PE pre-interviews will produce a handsome return at the workshop.
Cross-Cultural Transfer of Policy Games
215
My experience with the Southeast Asian climate change project clearly
demonstrated the PE approach is useful in addressing long-term, large-scale,
and complex problems characterized by significant scientific uncertainties but
demanding the attention of strategic planners and policy-makers. By understanding the local cultural traditions, it was possible to design the PE procedures so that it followed the basic concepts of the original protocol rooted in
the Western culture, but was sufficiently flexible to accommodate organizational, behavioral, and interpersonal aspects of the Asian culture.
References
Brewer GD (1986) Methods for synthesis: Policy exercises. In: Clark WC, Munn RE
(eds) Sustainable development of the biosphere. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, pp 455-473
Clark WC (1986) Sustainable development of the biosphere: Themes for a research
program. In: Clark WC, Munn RE (eds) Sustainable development of the biosphere.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Craig J (1979) Culture shock! Singapore and Malaysia. Times Books International,
Singapore
Toth FL (1988a) Policy exercises: Objectives and design elements. Simulation &
Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 19(3):235-255
Toth FL (1988b) Policy exercises: Procedures and implementation. Simulation &
Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 19(3):256-276
UNEP (1990) The potential impact of climate change in Southeast Asia. Interim report.
UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya
Ferenc L. Toth is an economist and policy analyst interested in problems
of natural resource and environmental management. His activities in
simulation/gaming started in 1983 when he was involved in the development
of STRATEGEM-1, a computer-based management training game. Later
he designed, tested, and applied the policy exercises approach to provide
a structured communication forum between scientists and policymakers
who study and manage long-term, large-scale, and complex environmental
problems.
Policy Exercises on
Global Environmental Problems
Laurent Mermet 1
Abstract. A network of scientists at and in connection with IIASA has been working for
several years on the development of Policy Exercises (PEs) to explore the options
available for acting on global environmental issues. A number of experimental workshops have shown that the methodology-which uses gaming techniques in a context of
scientific research and of policy-making-has a high potential. It has made significant
progress, but some basic problems remain, both in design and debriefing. The paper
presents some pragmatic options for overcoming them in future developments of PEs.
But these difficulties also point to deeper theoretical issues which will have to be
addressed fully if PEs are to reach their main objective, that is, to simulate the
dynamics of global environmental problems.
Key words environment; gaming; methodology; Policy Exercises; policy making;
research; simulation
Can we capture the complexity of global environmental issues in a gaming/
simulation workshop? As Meadows clearly demonstrated during the conference, the answer is certainly "yes" in an education or training context,
where the purpose is to help participants understand the paradigms of longterm and global thinking. But Policy Exercises have a different ambition-that
of applying gaming/simulation as a tool for scientific research and policy making. After 4 years of experiments on the methodology, it has become apparent
that this different context imposes a whole new set of challenges, some of
which would previously have been difficult to anticipate. It is time to step back,
look at the more basic difficulties in the endeavour, and reflect upon the main
options for further development.
Learning from Experience
To deal successfully with global environmental problems, it is necessary to
achieve both an in-depth understanding of their social and institutional aspects
1 AScA, 69 rue des Rigoles, 75020 Paris, France; phone 33143668898; fax
33 143 66 85 58
216
Policy Exercises on Global Environmental Problems
217
and a constructive synthesis of the various disciplines of natural science involved. The methodological challenges involved in this proposition brought
Brewer (1986) and Clark (1986) to suggest the development of Policy Exercises
(PE). The agenda they put forward was basically to adapt and apply free-form
gaming to research and policy making in the field of global environmental
problems. An international network of scientists, at and around the Institute
of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria) began to work
out a more precise base for the methodology (Toth 1988, Underwood 1988,
Underwood and Duke 1987). The basic concept they retained rested on the
following features:
-
The core of the exercise is a gaming/simulation workshop.
Participants include decision makers as "players," and scientists as a
"control-team. "
The control team presents a hypothetical situation at time T.
Each player, in role, proposes a set of actions.
The control-team assesses the impact of all actions in the round, and
presents the new, resulting situation at T + LlT.
Through a number of such rounds, the exercise builds up a "future history"
and ends with a debriefing session.
Clearly, this concept aims at combining the strengths of improved meeting
processes, scenario-writing methods, and an actual simulation of the complex systems involved, with both human participants and computer support if
necessary.
Quite a number of experimental exercises were run from 1987 to 1990 (for
an overview, see Mermet 1992 and Duinker et al. 1989). They used many
variants of the basic design, differing in topic, group size (2-30), duration
(3 hours to 3 days), and design (from very flexible to more rigid rules).
Scientists involved in running the experiments met with external experts for
a review workshop at the Institute of Environmental Studies, Toronto, in
October 1990. They confirmed that the methodology does have high potential,
in particular for:
-
Integration, through an explicit and dynamic treatment of the time dimension, of many disciplinary perspectives on global environmental problems
problems
Creating a stimulating and well-structured communication between scientists and policy-makers
The experiments have come up with solutions concerning many of the difficulties involved in running such complex gaming/simulations. Continued
exchanges between the designers of the experiments has led to a form of
collective learning. Despite much progress with PE "technology", some central
problems still remain. If PEs are no longer just a concept, neither are they a
mature methodology. Both the preparation and the debriefing are still difficult
to master, and PEs remain a fairly unpredictable and risky experience.
218
Merrnet
The preparation of PEs is apt to become a very large undertaking, somewhat
disproportionate with its outcome, that is, a workshop lasting from 1-3 days.
When good material has come out of a workshop, it has required a disproportionate amount of work, and it has been difficult to identify to what
extent, and in which way, it could be identified as a specific product of the
exercise.
Pragmatic Options
To overcome these limitations, one pragmatic solution is to modify the general
design of PEs. Four options seem to be available.
In the course of preparing experimental PEs, it became obvious very soon
that some topics were more "gameable" than others. Examples were geographic or thematic subsystems of global environmental problems, such as
the management of a regional watershed under conditions of climate change
(Mermet 1992), the long-term evolution of a rural region, or the future strategies of one corporation in the wood industry (Duinker et al. 1989). The
strategy of focusing on gameable situations can help identify and approach
interesting aspects of global environmental problems. This already gives it a
high potential for further applications in the field. However, it cannot be
considered a suitable way of grasping these global problems themselves. Lest
we fall into an instrumental bias (looking under a street lamp for a key lost
elsewhere in the dark), PEs will have to go beyond this solution.
A second way to dodge the difficulties inherent in the PE concept stems from
the fact that it is the element of actual simulation (of the consequences of
decisions on the evolution of the global system) which generates the worst
contradictions between the intricacies and uncertainties of our initial understanding and the demands of workable design. Why not invest more in other
components of PEs, by fully exploiting the potential of qualitative scenarios, as
well as paying greater attention to rich, mUlti-perspective discussions between
participants, and thus minimizing the role of actual simulations in the workshop design? Experiments have shown that this does make the exercise more
workable. Writing scenarios directly provides a tangible product, and the more
freewheeling discussions are easier for participants to accept.
In such designs, the remaining element of simulation is only valued for
its contribution to the meeting process. However, the satisfactions obtained
through this formula should not conceal the underlying inability to simulate
more decisively the global problems approached. Simulating these in a credible
way is a statement of the kind of understanding we are aiming at, even if we
are unable as yet to deliver it. The success of a more qualitative exercise should
pave the way for an increasingly firmer treatment of its topics. It cannot,
however, be a substitute for it.
A third possibility is to go beyond the reduced scale of a gaming workshop,
and mobilize more participants, more information, more time, and more
means. Instead of a 4-week effort, culminating in a 2-day workshop, for
Policy Exercises on Global Environmental Problems
219
instance, one could organize a 2-year effort, in a network arrangement, including six 2-day interactive workshops or the use of teleconferencing facilities.
This possibility is certainly very promising because it can produce more elaborate material, allows time to process more information, provides an opportunity to hammer out difficulties and to explore sidetracks that could ruin a
workshop, and makes easier the collaboration of participants with different
research rhythms and personal time-constraints.
However, it leaves two major pitfalls open. First, more time and more
resources make the undertaking vulnerable to precisely the same pitfall that
caused so many difficulties with global computer models-the futility of
expecting that massive treatment of information could take the place of new
and appropriate theoretical insights on global problems. Second, the bigger
the exercise becomes, the closer it would have to be to a classical interdisciplinary research proiect. Choosing this orientation may lead us back to a
problem which is still basic in all PEs: how to ensure the sound conceptual and
practical insertion of a gaming event in the processes of science and policy
making?
The first phases in designing a gaming-simulation need a clear formulation of
the problem to be addressed, an adequate description of the system within
which management action takes place, and the selection of a set of elements
and relations in the system sufficient to account for its main features and
dynamics. On the topic of global environmental problems, a satisfactory treatment of this first phase would be a fair achievement, even if the simulation
itself never took place!
Clearly, all protocols suggested for PEs have insisted on the importance of
the preparation phase (Toth 1988). But the point here is that it should, and
could, be made to produce more than just material for a workshop. The
experiments so far have shown that trying to meet the requirements for running a simulation provides a stimulation, framework, and test for the selection
and integration of knowledge into a coherent picture. What is needed now is a
workable way to extract documented and usable information from all the trial,
error, and conceptual elaboration which occur in the preparation phase. This is
certainly a promising orientation, but again, it does not completely address the
challenge inbedded in the PE concept.
Central Problems
All four options above can help alleviate the difficulties of designing and running PEs. However, each of them tends to avoid a central core of difficulties,
which seem to be inherent in the initial agenda of PEs. They also lead to
varying types of designs. As a result, the identity of the PE as a methodology is
at risk if we simply follow pragmatic options for further development.
It is certainly necessary for PE designs to move away from pure gaming/
simulation. But to harness the whole potential of the concept, this tendency
will have to be balanced by an awareness that the central aim is to simulate the
220
Mermet
dynamics of global environmental systems. For this, we have to step back from
the pragmatic challenge of designing exercises. Three basic problems then
become apparent.
Science and public decision making are central in the process of managing
global environmental problems. But in both arenas, PEs have not yet found
a very well-defined and legitimate niche. From a scientist's point of view,
their conceptual status remains unclear. The links between theory, data, and
assumptions, which exist in a computer model for instance, are lacking in a
"future history." Also, the products tend to be difficult to publish-a major
source of institutional obstacles. From a decision-making perspective, PEs are
valued as thought-provoking meetings, but they consume large resources for a
small number of participants, with little relation to the actual process of
decision making and, so far, with few solutions for a wider diffusion of results.
The second main problem rests at the heart of gaming as a methodology. To
organize a simulation is to offer a model of reality. However, the model and its
simplification of reality must rest upon an adequate theory. As Greenblat
(1988) plainly states: "Unless you take the time required to understand the
system, you cannot simulate it, even in highly abstract form." But if you have
to understand before you design a game, the idea of introducing gaming as a
means of understanding the system leads to a vicious circle. This throws some
light on one of the main obstacles encountered in experimental exercises: when'
trying to design simulations for high level scientists and decision makers, the
margin of maneuvre is very narrow. What the designers know is also known to
most participants and tends to appear trivial to them. And what designers only
understand vaguely tends to be the basis for confusing workshops.
The third central problem lies in the aims of PEs. The initial proponents of
the PE set very high expectations. Among other benefits, the methodology was
expected to enable new research results on global environmental problems to
be transferred directly to policy makers, to integrate the findings of "hard" and
"soft" science and also the benefits of the personal experience of high-level
decision makers, to prepare informed decisions for high-level decision makers,
and to identify and study new aspects of complex systems which govern global
problems and their management. In view of these exceedingly high expectations, an actual PE is a sobering experience: the quantity of information which
can be treated in one workshop is strictly limited; if all kinds of components
can presumably be included in an exercise, trying to take them all in at the
same time can only be a source of confusion; and preparing a good simulation
with a very imperfect understanding of how a system works is a risky and
frustrating experience. But these ambitious aims have inspired a strong and
sustained motivation to both the scientists and decision makers involved.
In short, the prospective PE was burdened with all the changes that
appeared to be necessary in our field of global environmental problems. This
gives a good sense of the frustration that the community of specialists of global
environmental problems felt a few years ago at the perceived inability of
traditional research and decision-making procedures to give adequate treatment to these problems.
Policy Exercises on Global Environmental Problems
221
New Challenges
Although much progress is currently being made in that direction, the needs
that generated the agenda for the PEs have not disappeared. PEs are one
element of a whole set of approaches that need to be developed. We need to
improve our understanding and theories in two main directions.
A more direct and detailed analysis of the procedures used in science and in
policy making in the field of global environmental problems is an urgent
necessity. Our difficulties in clearly defining the appropriate niches for the PE
is only one symptom of a blind area in our awareness which may hinder our
efforts to solve global problems. This is only apparently trivial. Rayner (1991)
analyses some of the obstacles which stand in the way of formulating an explicit
diagnostic and innovation in this field.
The design of a PE demands that we transform the vague concept of
"managing global environmental problems" into explicit and structured
decision-making situations. As soon as we try to do so, we realize the inadequacy of our understanding. As long as gaming serves training purposes, it
may be sufficient to rely on the toolbox of soft-system analysis and of gametheory as base for ad hoc "conceptual modelling." However, in a research and
decision-making context, it is necessary to rely on adequate, state-of-the-art
understanding of the actual dynamics of very complex situations. The design of
PEs is then no substitute for new theoretical perspectives on the management
of global environmental problems. This may well be the most interesting
contribution to research made by the experimental PEs so far. From the
coherence and clarity of understanding that it requires, the design of a game
reveals both the missing links of our understanding and the general form we
would like it to take.
The PE design may be the product, not because it could answer our questions
on very complex problems, but because it can help formulate and organize
them better. Furthermore, this observation leads to the hypothesis that a
theory based on game concepts may have a high potential in addressing these
problems. Beyond game theory, we have few ready-made theoretical foundations for using game-based concepts for an analysis and synthesis of very
complex problems (Mermet 1987). A new effort to lay deeper theoretical
foundations to gaming may be necessary if it is to be applied to very complex
issues, and with research and policy making (as opposed to training) as its main
purpose.
Conclusion
The PE methodology can be useful in giving us intuitive access, and potentially
a testing ground, toward important theoretical issues in the management of
global systems. These issues could be very easily overlooked when using a
more conventional methodology. Its development has a significant contribution
to make to the diversification and improvement of the procedures by which
222
Merrnet
hard science, policy science, and decision makers can work together towards
the resolution of global environmental problems. Finally, experiments with
PEs raise important questions about the use of gaming for research purposes
and as an approach to complex problems.
Acknowledgments
The author's work on Policy Exercises has been funded by IIASA, and by the
Groupe de Prospective of the French Ministry of the Environment.
References
Brewer GD (1986) Methods for synthesis: Policy exercises. In: Clark WC, Munn RE
(eds) Sustainable development of the biosphere. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge
Clark WC (1986) Sustainable development of the biosphere: Themes for a research
program. In: Clark WC, Munn RE (eds) Sustainable development of the biosphere.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Duinker P, Nilsson S, Toth F (1989) Policy exercises in the forest study of the biosphere
project: A methodological review. Working document
Greenblat C (1988) Designing games and simulations: An illustrated handbook. Sage,
Newbury Park, CA
Mermet L (1987) Game analysis-An analytical framework to bridge the practitionerresearcher gap in negotiation research. IIASA Working Paper 87-084
Mermet L (1992) Les exercices de simulation prospective: Une methode pour etudier
des politiques en situation de complexite, d'incertitude, de long terme. Natures,
Sciences, Societe, 1
Rayner S (1991) Think globally, act locally: Harnessing diverse expertise for managing
the global environment. Actes du colloque: Les experts sont formels; controverses
scientifiques et decisions politiques dans Ie domaine de l'environnement, tenu a Arc
et Senans
.
Toth F (1988) Policy Exercises: Objectives and design elements. Simulations & Games:
An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research (19)3:235-255
Toth F (1988) Policy Exercises: Procedures and implementation. Simulations &
Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research (19)3:256-276
Underwood SE (1988) The policy exercise: Cooperative learning for long-run policy
assessment. In: Crookall D, Klabbers JHG, Coote A, et al. (eds) Simulation and
gaming in education and training. Pergamon Press, Oxford
Underwood SE, Duke RD (1987) Decisions at the top: Gaming as an aid to formulating
policy options. In: Crookall D, Greenblat CS, Coote A (eds) Simulation-gaming in
the late 1980's. Pergamon Press, Oxford
Laurent Mermet's background is in ecology. However, skepticism about our
ability to manage our environment properly has led him to a doctorate in
management science. He presently works, both as a scientist and as a
consultant, on decision-making processes, long-term strategies, and conflict
resolution issues in the field of environment.
An Open Simulation-Game with
a TV Studio as a Tool for Long-Term
Policy Formation
Kiyoshi Arai1
Abstract. In order for people to reach a consensus concerning the future of a region, the
author proposes THE MAYOR'S ELECTION, an open simulation-game with a set of
facilities in a studio. A preliminary trial run was performed in February, 1991 at Kinki
University, Kyushu Campus. In the scenario, a region is divided into thi:ee areas, each
of which has a candidate for the mayor of the region. Each candidate persuades interest
groups to get ballots. The groups include city council members, shop owners, constructors, medical doctors, women's groups, and farmers. The players exchange their
ideas, discuss the policies of the region, and communicate with each other via written
messages and face-to-face discussions. A TV newscaster provides information about the
messages as regular and special news programs, based on information cole~td
by the
news media group. The game can be developed as a policy exercise tool to form longterm, regional policies.
Key words election; frame game; general picture; long-term policy; policy exercise;
regional planning
It is vital to incorporate the learning process into the planning process to make
citizen participation more effective and valuable. The author proposes an open
simulation-game as a policy exercise tool for long-term regional policy formation. A set of facilities in a studio helps people to discuss regional problems,
required policies, and action programs for the future of a region.
A trial run was performed in February, 1991 at Kinki University, Kyushu
Campus, located in Iizuka City, Fukuoka. This paper deals with the general
framework, structure, expected effectiveness, and implications of the game
obtained by performing the trial run.
Design Concept
A frame game is known as an effective tool which deals with a long-term
policy. Because nobody has a clear picture of the future, the gradual refine1 Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Kinki University, 11-6
Kayanomori, Iizuka, 820 Japan; phones 948-22-5655 (w), 92-661-4382 (h); facsimile 94823-0536; e-mail f77541@Kyu-cc.cc.Kyushu-u.ac.jp
223
224
Arai
ment of policies is required. Participants can create details of the future if they
are provided with an appropriate gaming framework. A frame game can be an
open simulation in two senses: it becomes a richer experience through replay
and it can influence decision making in the real world. In a replay, a frame
game can be developed into a more structured game. The more proficient the
players become, the richer the game. This means that players accumulating
knowledge in the game world will share this information with other participants
and bring this knowledge back to policy making in the real world. A frame
game as a policy exercise tool should function as a Delfi exercise.
It is crucial for players to know what others are thinking and doing in the
real world in order to formulate their strategies. Specific communication
methods are required which make it possible for someone to collect, analyze,
and deliver information about what happens in the game world. Computer
network systems and written message exchange systems are suitable as a levelone communication media between individual players. Mass media systems like
TV news are suitable as second-level communication media for real-time feedback purposes.
A game scenario is important because it determines the game's attractiveness
and effectiveness. THE MA YOR'S ELECTION adopts a scenario in which a
region is divided into three areas, each of which has a candidate for the mayor
of the region. The three candidates have to concentrate on other areas from.
which to get ballots, as well as their own areas. This scenario makes players
think about competition and cooperation among the three areas.
Structure of a Trial Run
The simulated region-Chikuho-is divided into 25 local governments which
have difficulties in planning. It is hard for people to share a general picture
of the region. Each local government has its own interests, and does not
cooperate with the others. Although the Chikuho region actually consists of 25
municipalities, the region is, in the scenario, divided into three areas. Each
area has one candidate who tries to be elected as the mayor of the region.
The timetable of the trial run is shown in Table 1. The first six rounds each
consist of four phases: (1) strategic meetings with each candidate and local
conferences in each area, (2) political transactions via written messages, (3)
inter-area conferences in each social group, and (4) regular TV news. In the
seventh round, the mayor is elected by vote.
Roles of players are shown in Table 2. Players are categorized into four
groups: the news media group, candidate groups, social groups, and general
voters. The three areas have the same number of players. The news media
group consists of three kinds of people: a newscaster, news staff, and messengers. They check, collect, and analyze messages exchanged between players,
and announce as regular and special news what is happening in the game
world. Their role is between the controllers and other players. Each candidate
group has four members: a candidate, a chair of the city council, a chair of
A Simulation-Game with TV Studio Facilities
225
Table 1. Timetable of the trial run
Total timetable
9:00-9:20
9:20-10:10
10:10-11:00
11:00-11:50
11:50-12:30
12:30-13:20
13:20-14:10
14:10-15:00
15:00-15:05
15:05-16:05
16:05-16: 15
16: 15-16:30
17:00-19:00
Orientation
1st round
2nd round
3rd round
Lunch
4th round
5th round
6th round
Break
7th round
Speech by the elected mayor
Break
Social meeting
Timetable in the 1st turn
9:20-9:28
Strategic meeting with each candidate and local
conference in each area
Political transaction via written-on-paper messages
9:28-9:53
Inter-area conference in each social group
9:53-10:00
Regular TV news
10:00-10: 10
Timetable in the 7th turn
15:00-15:45
Speeches by three candidates
15:45-16:00
Electing the mayor by vote
Table 2. Roles of players
Newscaster
Newsdesk staff
Messengers
• Announces regular and special news
• Make news drafts by analyzing messages exchanged
• Check and deliver messages
Candidates
• Aim at being elected, announcing their promises,
trying to break ties of competitors, and making them
certain in their own camp
• Help candidates who run from their local areas
because of their interests, but sometimes betray
them in the final stage by making coalitions with
other candidates
City councils
Chambers of commerce
Constructors' associations
Medical associations
Agricultural cooperatives
Women's associations
Amateur sports associations
Labor unions
• May make coalitions with other people, if they are
beneficial to their social interests
General voters
• Are independent of political transaction, evaluating
candidates mainly from TV news. May question
candidates
226
Arai
Table 3. Message management
Contents of messages
• Sender, receiver, and time should be written clearly
• Secret political transactions should be put in parentheses to avoid disclosing them to
the public via TV news
• Scandals, money and privileges without any policies are prohibited
• Replying to messages should include such items as when the original message was
received, who sent it, and what was the subject
• A ballpoint pen is recommended because four carbon copies are made for one
message
How to exchange messages
• A sender keeps the original message and passes three carbon copies to a messenger.
Then the messenger checks if necessary items are written in the message and delivers
the first copy to the news media group, the second to the receiver, and the third to
the audience
How to make use of media
• Reveal policies with new ideas because new ideas are often announced via TV news
• Discourage the unity of other groups by showing policies which are attractive to each
member
• A secret political transaction is not open to the public if the statement is put between
parentheses
the chamber of commerce, and a chair of the constructors' association. The
candidate and the three other members discuss strategies to get as many ballots
as possible. Sometimes, some members betray other members in the final stage
of the game. The category of social groups consists to several separate roles:
medical associations, agricultural cooperatives, women's associations, and
labor unions. They are loosely coupled with each other, but make coalitions if
it seems beneficial to their interests. General voters are independent of the
political transitions, and evaluate candidates mainly from TV news. Open
questions to candidates are possible.
There are two general voters in each area and every player has one ballot
except the media group. There are 33 ballots in this game, and the newscaster
is the tie breaker.
Messages are exchanged with carbon copies. Players are expected to adopt
suitable information exchange strategies. Instructions for players about how to
manage messages is described in Table 3.
The studio layout is shown in Fig. 1. It consists of a classroom for 300
persons. There is a screen between the news media group and other players so
that players cannot directly see the news media group. The audience, on the
other hand, can see all the players.
Results of the Trial Run
Participants were as follows: 150 people, including 33 players, 22 media
people, 12 controllers, and about 80 people in the audience. Players were from
A Simulation-Game with TV Studio Facilities
227
"
(TV camera)
( Newscaster)
(Newsdesk)
( Controllers )
( TV Monitor)
( TV Monitor)
IizukaArea
NogataArea
TagawaArea
Candidate
Candidate
Candidate
Council
Chamber of Commerce
Council
Chamber of Commerce
Council
Chamber of Commerce
Constructors Association
Constructors Association
Constructors Association
Medical Association
Agricultural Cooperative
Medical Association
Agricultural Cooperative
Women's Association
Amateur Sports Association
Women's Association
Amateur Sports Association
Labor Union
Labor Union
Medical Association
Agricultural Cooperative
Women's Association
Amateur Sports Association
Labor Union
( TV Monitor )
( TV Monitor)
I
General Voter 1
General Voter 2
I
General Voter 3
General Voter 4
)
I
General Voter 5
General Voter 6
)
Audience
~
Fig. 1. Studio layout
various occupational backgrounds, such as shop owners, farmers, local government officials, workers from associations, and educators. All were volunteers
from the Chikuho Seminar of Kinki University and the Chamber of Youth.
The media group, with the assistance of students, consisted of a professional
newscaster from RKB Mainichi, a professional reporter from NHK, newspaper
people from Asahi, Mainichi and Yomiuri, and a media hardware specialist.
This group played their roles effectively. Controllers consisted of similar mem-
228
Arai
Table 4. Themes and examples of exchanged messages
Image of the region
Sports
Cultural events
Resorts
Transportation
Women
Welfare
Employment
Agriculture
Community
Environment
Medical care
Public administration
University
Continuing education
Factory
Commerce
Laws for reconstruction
Information networks
• Motor Island Kyushu to encourage industries in Kyushu
by motor factories, Fruits and Flowers Campaign to
create a better image of the region, etc.
• Flower Ladies Marathon. Sports Complex in Kawara,
including mountain bike, rock climbing, hang gliding,
parasailing, etc.
• Traditional Arts Exhibition, Motor Museum, etc.
• Resort Complex in Hikosan, including skiing, camping,
etc.
• Improvement of Sasaguri Line (Le., electric line, parallel
line), extension to Tagawa, connection to a subway line in
Fukuoka, etc.
• Social infrastructure for childcare and nursing the elderly;
movement for female members of council, female
executives of administration, and female vice-mayors, etc.
• Encouragement of housing with three generations, model
community for the elderly and handicapped people, lunch
room in primary schools for the elderly people, etc.
• Institute for Small Firm Labors' Welfare, Training Center
for Asian Labors, etc.
• Agricultural parks with entertainment, high quality fresh
vegetables without chemicals, prevention against
contamination of drainage from resident areas, etc.
• Promotion of architectural agreement, traffic safety in
school zones, etc.
• Regulations for environmental protection, golf courses,
committee for garbage problems, etc.
• Construction of a core hospital for 3rd/4th medical care
and 1st medical care on holidays and nights, hospice and
center for geriatric diseases, etc.
• Public administration services in convenience and
department stores on holidays, one month holidays for
administration officials, etc.
• Establishment of a new university for Asian students,
research institute for alternative energies, etc.
• Center for continuing education in Hikosan, to promote
voluntary leaders, comfortable living standards for the
elderly, communication between generations, etc.
• Invitation to Mitsubishi Motors to construct a factory in
Tagawa, construction of an industrial park for factories
with relation to Toyota Motors, etc.
• New image for the region, etc.
• Construction of better residences, negative opinion
against laws for reconstruction, etc.
• 24-h CATV networks, information center for agriculture,
etc.
bers. The audience attended the trial run because they had read articles
announced in different newspapers.
During the simulation, 466 messages were exchanged, with each person
receiving an average of 14 messages. The themes and examples of messages are
shown in Table 4.
A Simulation-Game with TV Studio Facilities
229
Participants were satisfied with the game because they enjoyed themselves
and learned a great deal about regional policies. They recognized that there
was a lot to learn about the region itself. It was difficult for the players to deal
with all the information from the messages, face-to-face conferences, and TV
news. They found difficulty in writing all the messages. Policies were not
intensively evaluated in the gaming process, and they will be evaluated before
the next run. Real-time feedback via TV news was very effective because the
news media group was organized by professionals.
Communication via computer networks can resolve two different levels of
problems. It can accumulate knowledge in evaluating policies and it can make
message exchanges much easier. New ideas and policies will be evaluated and
accumulated in the database as a menu of policies after the gaming is performed. In the next run, players can choose any number of policies from the
menu, revise them in formulating their messages, and send them to other
players. All players can share their policy menu in the database.
The roles of players can be changed according to the situation. The media
group should offer commentary programs, as well as reports on what happens
in the game world. At several stages of the gaming process, it is useful to
administer questionnaires to gain information on priorities or weights on
policies through networking. THE MAYOR'S ELECTION is a self-developing
frame game, whose aim is to accumulate new ideas and viewpoints on regional
policies through playing the game repeatedly.
Conclusion
The February 1991 session was successful as a first trial run. It also drew public
interest, for example a TV station reported on the session in the evening news.
The game may be developed as a more structured frame game for policy
exercises when suitable communication tools are developed, such as on-line
systems or machine readable off-line systems, and when specialists in each field
are involved to evaluate policies.
Acknowledgment
The author would like to express special thanks to Hiroharu Seki who suggested TV news as a powerful tool for feedback. The timetable of gaming
follows that of the GLOBAL SIMULATION designed by Seki, which is
performed annually at Ritsumeikan University.
Kiyoshi Arai specializes in computerized simulations to evaluate voting
systems, and has recently been trying to introduce gaming aspects into his
work. His background is in physics, economics, and engineering. He has
been working in the field of social engineering for 10 years. He is a member
of the Editorial Board of Simulation & Gaming: An International Journal of
Theory, Design, and Research.
A Computer-Supported Meeting
Environment for Policy Exercises
Rudiger B. Wyskl
Abstract. Complex and long-range issues present significant challenges to policy-making
methods such as computerized models and expert panels. Policy exercises are recognized as a more open and appropriate way to synthesize information, tools, and
methods in policy-making. From brainstorming to questionnaires, from group dictionary
to stakeholder identification, more tools and methods are now automated and/or
supported. This article, after reviewing policy exercises, describes a COmputerSupported Meeting Environment (COSME) framework and evaluates the use of that
information technology to support policy exercises. A possible extension of policy
exercises to electronic meeting systems with global reach is mentioned.
Key words analysis; communication; computer-supported meetings; decision room;
electronic meeting systems; global reach; group systems; policy exercises
Policy exercises are one of the most important developments in the area of
policy making involving complex and long range issues such as environmental
conservation. As an emerging method, the policy exercise is facing several
challenges, such as documentation at the group level (Mermet 1990, Toth
1988a). Although documentation has been a task traditionally handled by
computers and recently covered by features of information technology for work
groups, no system seems to have been suggested to tackle such problems in the
policy exercise arena.
This article provides a description of the policy exercise process and then
presents a recent development in the area of workgroup information systems,
the COmputer-Supported Meeting Environment (COSME). It is an environment in the sense that several technologies, tools, and software packages are
made available to a group of people who use them in an integrated way with
the help of a local area network (LAN) in a decision room. The following
descriptions of the policy exercise process and of the COSME provide the
foundation for showing how a COSME can be used to answer several of the
challenges that policy exercises are facing.
1 Computer Information Systems, College of Business Administration, Northern
Arizona University, PO Box 15066, Flagstaff, AZ 86011-5066, US; phone 602-523-7370;
facsimile 602-523-7331; e-mail wysk@nauvax.bitnet
230
Computer-Supported Policy Exercises
231
Policy Exercises
The policy exercise approach was identified by Brewer (1986) as a method to
synthesize and assess scientific information for use in policy making. Policy
exercises were then seen as a hybrid approach that would integrate the benefits
of existing computerized models and expert panels within a gaming context.
Historical and/or future scenarios would be generated by scientists and then
presented to scientists and policy makers who, through discussions, would
recommend policies for the next round of the scenario-based exercise or game
(Clark 1986).
Scientists, policy makers, and support staff work through several stages to
carry out a policy exercise. Toth (1988b) identified three main phases for
a policy exercise: preparation, workshop, and evaluation. A sample policy
exercise could consist of one preparation meeting, several parallel workshops
in a couple of days, and one final evaluation meeting (see, e.g., Mermet 1990).
Difficulties exist in running a policy simulation based on a computer model
because of the steep learning curve and the long runs. In general, too much
procedural sophistication can be counterproductive (Mermet 1990). Another of
the main difficulties is related to documenting and analyzing the recordings,
paperboard sheets, and notes produced. The analysis is complicated even
further because multiple stakeholders from different disciplines need to be
considered. The documentation effort also limits the size of the groups. It only
allows for one discussion at the same time (Mermet 1990, Toth 1988a).
A Computer-Supported Meeting Environment
The advantage of using a COSME has to do with the main bottleneck of policy
exercises: for operational and documentation reasons, only one discussion can
be carried at the same time in a long sequential process. A COSME allows
parallel processing of issues raised in a meeting and, at the same time, automatically handles the documentation. At one site, because of this meeting
structure, a comparison of man-hours expended resulted in 56% savings attributable to the use of a COSME (Nunamaker et al. 1989).
But there are other reasons for exploring the potential of a COSME for
policy exercises. Planning under uncertain conditions requires flexible communication and richness of information to reduce equivocality, and data to
reduce uncertainty. COSMEs allow both for the flexibility and richness of faceto-face communication and for the structure of an information system.
The face-to-face communications possible in a COSME also support the
informality found in contexts that lead to the appropriate introduction of information technologies (Cooper and Zmud 1990, Johnson 1990). Because they
also allow for an informal, face-to-face communication channel, COSMEs are
more appropriate for complex rather than simple tasks (Bui and Sivasankaran
1990).
232
Wysk
Table 1. A framework for the computer-supported meeting environment. Adapted
from Chen and Nunamaker (1989), DeSanctis and Gallupe (1987), and Martz (1991)
Level 3 Metaplanning
Scheduling available tools
Extended PLEXSYS Session Planner
Scheduling tools to be generated
Extended MET APLEX
Level 2 Analysis
Stakeholder Identification
Group Matrix
Levell
Communication
Issue(s)
Generation
Organization
Evaluation
Exploration
The type of task for which COSMEs are used most is planning (Straub and
Beauclair 1987). From the planning perspective, one of the main features of a
COSME is the backbone string of tools used in this environment-issue(s)
generation, organization, evaluation, and exploration. An issue-based COSME
facilitates the communication between experts and non-experts (Mason and
Mitroff 1981).
The following description of a COSME is based on the environment developed and used by the University of Arizona for about 5 years (Martz 1991,
Nunamaker et al. 1991). It is a particular case of the Electronic Meeting
Systems (EMS) environment in that it considers both the computer network
and the informal face-to-face channels in a decision room. This description of a
COSME follows the three levels of design suggested for all types of EMSs by
DeSanctis and Gallupe (1987).
Level 1 is composed of a set of software tools and presentation technologies
that support communication. Level 2 adds more analytical tools to the set.
Level 3 is seen as a support to the structuring of the process that the group is
going through. All three levels are shown in Table l.
Levell tools generate, organize, evaluate, and explore issues/ideas. Level 2
tools, such as stakeholder identification and group matrix, allow for different
kinds of analyses. The former graphically compares how stakeholders impact
and are impacted by a policy based on the stakeholders' assumptions (Martz
1991, Mason and Mitroff 1981, Nunamaker et al. 1991). The group matrix
displays two lists (row and column) in a way that the cells indicate the consensus among the group about the relationships mapped (Martz 1991,
Nunamaker et al. 1991).
Level 3 supports metaplanning-planning the planning process. The planning of the process can be done a priori in defining the sequence of tools to be
used. If the tools are available, a question and answer session planner could
support that decision (Wysk 1990). System-monitored, level-1 group-process
parameters can trigger a reactivation of level 3's session planner for a review of
the pre-established sequence of tools (DeSanctis and Gallupe 1987).
Computer-Supported Policy Exercises
233
This framework (Table 1) not only integrates different technologies to support a semi-structured approach (communication plus analysis) to reduce
equivocality and uncertainty (Agarwal and Tanniru 1989), but also covers the
main problems we are trying to eliminate in policy exercise processessequential processing of the discussions, documentation, and analysis.
Level 1 faces the communication and documentation problems. Level 2
addresses the comparative analysis and integration problems. Both levels 1 and
2, understood as one tool kit, allow for flexible arrangements of the various
tools for different policy processes (Nunamaker et al. 1991).
A COSME for Policy Exercises
To show how a COSME could be used for policy exercises we need to map the
appropriate tools into the existing process (Martz 1991). Practice has shown
that mapping of COSME tools into an existing process leads to higher satisfaction when the method in place only needs to be automated, not changed
(Bullen and Bennett 1990). The basis for this process mapping "scenario" is
the policy exercise detailed by Mermet (1990). The software tools are available
in the market under the GroupSystems label (Martz 1991).
Starting the preparation phase/session, electronic brainstorming followed by
idea organization and policy formation could be used to develop a conceptual
framework for the exercise and the problem statement. After the definition of
the key disciplines, key policy stakeholders could be identified through the use
of stakeholder identification. Group writing could help with scenario writing
(see Table 2).
In the workshop phase, each specific workshop could be seen as a series of
COSME sessions. A group could be broken up into workshops using the
electronic brainstorming tool (Dennis et al. 1991). The groups could have
access to policy formation and/or group writing to formulate policies and to
update scenarios. Discussions could be held with the use of electronic brainstorming followed by another cycle of policy formation and group writing.
Access to computer models, external data-bases, stakeholder identification,
and group matrix would always be available on the network, as would the
voting tool.
The evaluation phase would benefit not only from the documentation collected on the COSME, but also from the electronic questionnaire. A sequence
of electronic brainstorming, idea organization, and topic commenter, with
or without voting, could support the process in this phase. Throughout the
exercise the use of the group dictionary would generate a common language
between all the domains involved in the exercise. With the help of a COSME,
the whole policy exercise could not only be documented but also structured for
research purposes.
The key for a successful meeting is the facilitation. The same is even more
true for a COSME (McGoff and Ambrose 1991). Mermet (1990) mentions that
the preparation for a computer modeling workshop is a very demanding pro-
234
Wysk
Table 2. COSME tools for a policy exercise. Adapted from Martz (1991), Mermet
(1990) and Toth (1988b)
COSME tools
Policy exercise
phase/session
Preparation
Workshop
Evaluation
Electronic brainstorming
Idea organization
Policy formation
Stakeholder identification
Group writing
Group dictionary
Session manager and planner
Electronic brainstorming
Policy formation
Group writing
Electronic brainstorming
Policy formation
Group writing
Group dictionary
Computer models
External databases
Other networks
Stakeholder identification
Group matrix
Voting
Session manager and planner
Documentation
Electronic questionnaire
Electronic brainstorming
Idea organization
Topic commenter
Voting
Group dictionary
Session manager and planner
Policy exercise use
Conceptual framework problem
statement
Identifying stakeholders
Scenario writing
Common language
Support facilitation
Group brake-up
Formulate policies, update scenarios
Discussions
Common language
Available access
Support facilitation
Documentation
Evaluation process
Common language
Support facilitation
cess, requiring a steep learning curve. After defining the design of an exercise,
the only skill required to use a COSME is typing. The design of the exercise
and the coordination and support of each workshop, however, place a heavier
burden on the facilitator. The session manager and session planner tools
support the facilitator in her/his role.
Given its toolkit structure, a COSME can be used for several groups with
different tasks within the same room. Research with COSME has shown that,
for the same task, a single large group generated more ideas of better quality
than several smaller groups or all the same individuals without interacting. This
is in contrast to several findings with non-computer-supported studies (Dennis
et al. 1991). For an overview of gains and losses in group processes using
COSME see Nunamaker et al. (1991). From the above it is possible to conclude that COSME maps promisingly into policy exercises.
The sequential workshop option (A and B in Table 3) assumes that the
whole group goes through the same process, A in the same room and B not
Computer-Supported Policy Exercises
235
Table 3. Information technology for policy exercises.
C
0
m
m
u
n
i
c
a
t
c
h
a
n
n
e
I
s
COSME:
Face-to-face
and computer
A
C
EMS:
Computer
only
B
D
0
n
Sequential
Parallel
Workshop phase structure
necessarily in the same room. The parallel workshop structure (C and 0 in
Table 3) expects the group to be broken up into several subgroups which then
go through different processes. C may require different rooms because of
possible noise in the face-to-face channel. While 0 does not necessarily require
separate rooms for each subgroup, it may allow for people in different rooms
and buildings to participate in a meeting at the same time.
The simultaneous availability of the COSME tool kit for different groups or
tasks also makes other alternatives within the EMS framework possible
(Nunamaker et al. 1991). The alternatives within the EMS framework lose,
however, the informal face-to-face communication channel, a possible source
of group member satisfaction (Jessup and Tansik 1991) and of higher outcomes
for members with integrative bargaining orientation (Sheffield 1989). On the
other hand, the EMS options could take the exercises to a bigger number of
participants in multiple individual or group sites and also extend them to a
global dimension.
Conclusion
The descriptions of the policy exercise process and of a COSME lead us to the
presentation of an overview "scenario" of how a COSME could be used for
policy exercises. The challenges facing policy exercises find several answers in
the use of a COSME. A COSME can also become a powerful research
instrument to evaluate process gains and time savings. It could tell us which
approach is more appropriate and how information technology could be used
to broaden the scope of policy exercises to a global level.
236
Wysk
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Rudiger Wysk is an Assistant Professor in Computer Information Systems at
the College of Business Administration at Northern Arizona University. His
research interests include computer-supported meeting environments and
expert systems for planning and strategic management.
Municipal Planning Room for
Policy Exercises
Yasufumi Igarashi, Toshiyuki Kaneda, and Y oshinobu Kumata 1
Abstract. The informatization of planning tasks has the potential of upgrading municipal
authorities. Our study tries to create a Planning Information Room for municipalitiesa highly informatized working environment equipped with various information technologies. Aiming at designing and realizing the Planning Information Room by planners
themselves, an experimental project has been set up through cooperation between
Utsunomiya city office and the authors. In the Utsunomiya experiment, a policy exercise (PE) as an application of simulation/gaming has been tried as a user-participation
approach to designing and realizing the Planning Information Room. This paper focuses
mainly on the issues of (1) our planning concept of a Planning Information Room and
(2) the policy exercise for activating informatization of planning administration at the
Utsunomiya city office.
Key words informatization; municipality; park location; Planning Information Room;
policy exercise; system realization; Utsunomiya
In the past 30 years, many municipal governments have tried to install computerized information systems to upgrade the efficiency of information processing. Infact, many of the systems which are being substituted for routine human
work have been successful. However, there is still much improvement needed
in order to support non-routine work such as planning tasks.
Planning is closely linking not only with realistic decision making but also
with processing ideas exchanged among politicians, citizens, administrative
practitioners, and others. Therefore planning tasks are important and the
informatization of planning tasks have the potential of enhancing the work of
municipal authorities.
Recent innovations in computers enable us to solve many technical problems
in developing effective planning-support systems. The informatization of planning tasks shifts the focus from technical to organizational problems. This is
because introducing a new information system forces users to change the way
they work.
1 Department of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayma,
Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152 Japan; phone 3-3726-1111 ext. 3191; facsimile 3-3729-1131
238
Municipal Policy Exercises
239
Our study tries to create a highly informatized working environment for
people engaging in planning within the environment of a complex of rooms
equipped with information systems necessary for the unique conditions of the
municipality in question. This is the Planning Information Room (PIR). The
room is equipped with various basic technologies such as network and audiovisual systems. Moreover, the room is designed to be available from the early
phase of system-building and to be flexible with regards to maintenance.
Our study also uses the policy exercise (PE) , which is an application of
simulation/gaming as a participation-oriented design approach. Through the
PE, the authors are seeking and sharing the activity images and realizing the
PIR together with the users. This paper explains both our PE approach and
the features of the PIR designed and realized through the PE.
The Planning Information Room
Turning Point of In-house Informatization Policies of Japanese Municipalities
Since the first computer was introduced in 1960, Japanese municipal governments have been depending on their in-house information systems more
closely. Japanese municipal governments have so far basically succeeded in
pushing forward with their implicit informatization policies.
Computerized information systems that are designed to substitute for human
routine tasks have grown. These systems work with many service tasks, such as
an on-line tax service and citizen record management. However, for the nonroutine tasks such as planning and forecasting, only a few examples have
survived (Ministry of Home Affairs 1990).
Since the emergence of PCs in the 1980s, the revolution of municipal computing has become worldwide. Today, the management of computers (including mains, minis, WSs, and PCs) is shifting drastically from centralized forms
to decentralized ones, particularly with the explosion in use of PCs in the
1990s (King and Kraemer 1991). The informatization policy focusing on
"Centralized, Few, and Big" is now collapsing in Japanese municipalities. It is
technically possible for every municipality to give a PC to each employee.
The "Decentralized, Many, and Small" policy can be conceived, but there
still remains organizational and human resource problems involving computer
literacy, technical support for PCs, and the multi-vendors', network management principles.
Many of the municipalities need organization-wide development projects for
in-house informatization to provide both a mass-introduction of PCs and the
construction of integrated networks.
Two Informatization Strategies for Introducing Planning-Support Systems
This study focuses our development target of in-house informatization towards
comprehensive municipal planning. Comprehensive plans are administrative
guidelines. However, more than 99% of Japanese city governments have their
240
Igarashi et al.
own comprehensive plans. Each comprehensive plan is centered in the planning administration system of each municipality because of the transsectional
wide comprehensiveness and an adequate planning time (usually 5-15 years).
Using the data of the Taskforce on the Comprehensive Planning Research
of JAPA (1990), typical characteristics of planning tasks have been found. The
planning tasks need not only realistic decisions but also futuristic creations
among transsectionally wide administrative practitioners, as well as the citizens. This process can be described as a highly complicated parallel-knowledgeprocessing model. The informatization of the comprehensive planning tasks
can be expected to contribute to the enhancement of the organizational decision process.
There are two introduction strategies of in-house information systems of
munici-palities: the top-down strategy and the bottom-up strategy. Both
strategies are complementary to each other; thus, successful informatization
requires the integration of both. However, only the top-down strategy glitters
sometimes with technology impact and high funding [see, for example, UIS
projects initiated by the Ministry of Construction (1982)], and there are still
few studies to refer to the latter bottom-up strategy. Our PIR project is linked
to both strategies. Moreover, the authors prepare the PE as a design approach
.... Shinkansen Line
_
Expressway
Expressway (Under Construction)
.",. . - '
I ."'....,
! \'- ''''
..
.
. -'
'
\_.
, ._/rliasu Kougen
'-
\
_\\
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i
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/
~ .I ·
/
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' .:
Nikko
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,
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Tokyo
Fig. 1. Location of Utsunomiya City
Municipal Policy Exercises
241
to the PIR through the bottom-up strategy. This study aims at designing and
realizing a PIR by applying the PE method.
Planning Information Room Designed Through PEs
The PIR is a physical and informational environment equipped with various
information systems. Planning tasks includes a complex variety of independent,
cooperative, physical, informational, and judgmental actions. Our PIR functions as a working environment for such tasks. The room also functions as a
basis for experimental projects for organizational informatization.
The requirements of the PIR can be summarized as follows: total support for
intelligent cooperative work, easy to use for beginners, ease of reconstruct and
extend, and ease for maintenance. Our study deals with the realization of the
PIR at the Utsunomiya city office. It is thus designed with cooperation between
the city officials and us through PE.
In a PE an actual situation which needs some policy formation is modelled.
Then, the practitioners attend to the role-playing in the modelled situation, in
that they can be allowed some trial and error. Lastly, they devise and choose
the best policy based on their exercises. Arai (1990) has already reported a PE
which consists of a creation of a future image of the Chikuho region involving
many citizens. Our PE has a double meaning. The first meaning is a PE
concerning designing and realizing of the Planning Information Room, and the
second meaning is a PE on the actual making of a policy (in our case, a park
construction project) in the PIR. The room itself functions as a field for PEs.
Planning Information Room Project for Utsunomiya City
Profile of Utsunomiya City
Utsunomiya is a city in Tochigi prefecture about 100km north of Tokyo. Since
the Edo era, Utsunomiya has been developing steadily as the commercial
center of the northern part of the Kanto plain. Now Utsunomiya has about 0.4
million citizens and is the 40th largest municipality, a typical medium-sized city
in Japan. Utsunomiya has the potential to grow even further, considering
the effects of the Tohoku-Shinkansen and the Technopolis project of MIT!
(Fig. 1).
A planning organization in the city office, called the planning division, has
three task teams: a long-range planning team, a statistical research team, and a
planning support team. The PIR project is organized under the collaboration
of the planning support team and the authors.
Attitude of the Utsunomiya City Government Concerning Informatization
The Utsunomiya city government has promoted informatization of the administrative work, and has made an attempt to facilitate the use of information systems for planning activities. The authors have cooperated with the
Utsunomiya city government as a project of the Japan Administration and
242
Igarashi et al.
,,
u.s.s.
Series of information
processing
Collecting data
Storing data
Analyzing data
~
Presentation
~Degr
of specialty~
Fig. 2. The stages of information processing and system coverage
Planning Association, and have developed the city simulator named Utusnomiya
Symbolic Simulator (USS) (Kaneda et al. 1990). This simulator is based upon a
system dynamics model and is intended as a tool for discussing policies through
examining the balance between financial planning and physical planning. The
USS system has developed a tool for considering the feasibility of long-range
planning, and this is utilized by the statistical research and planning support
teams. However, the system requires semi-professional knowledge for handling
the city model, which means that the number of users of this system is limited.
Therefore, increasing the number and type of user is the next goal in the
implementation phase of the simulation development. The PIR project was
started in order to achieve this subject.
The Planning Information Room at Utsunomiya
Comprehensive planning is essentially information processing. The processes
are collecting, storing, and analyzing large amounts of information for developing plans. The series of information-processing steps for the administration and
for the support systems are shown in Fig. 2.
USS mainly covers the analyzing phase of the information-processing stage.
Although the simulator has its own database and display systems, it was not
sufficient to impart the knowledge acquired from the result of simulation. As
comprehensive planning involves cooperative work among various sectors,
knowledge conveyance is the key factor dominating the performance of the
planning. Therefore, the current concern is to support activities in the presentation phase. This time the PIR system covers the phase of presentation first.
The collecting and storing of data phases support the function of presentation.
PEs for Activating the Use of Information System
The coverage of PIR can be identified by the necessity of planning. However,
the way to use the system in practice is decided by the officers. In order
Municipal Policy Exercises
243
D
I
Video
LJ
Fig. 3. System components of the PIR
to decide the PIR activity, the design process of this system has to involve
officers who are concerned with the activities of planning-this is part of the
particiapatory approach of PEs. For its purpose, the fundamental requirements
of PEs are that (1) the functions are easy to understand for officers and (2) the
subject reated in the exercise is suited to their work. These are the viewpoints
for planning the PE.
Objectives of the Planning Information Room
The objective of the PIR is to facilitate top management level meetings in the
Utsunomiya city office. The PIR has the purpose of boosting the effectiveness of information exchange through the visual expression of such things as
graphical figures and geographic information. The current functions include a
database to store statistical data of Utsunomiya and to display mesh maps and
figures from the database according to the discussion in meetings. The fundamental requirements are the ability to deal with requests to create these figures
on the spot.
Hardware and Functions of the PIR
The PIR consists of three subsystems: a network, a database, and a system to
visualize information. The number of users is between 10 and 15. Monitors to
display output from personal computers or workstations include 14-inch CRT
displays and a lOO-inch projection-type display. This system enables us to share
and discuss an image created by the computers. Computers for the data-base
functions and for creating graphical figures are connected by a (local area
244
Igarashi et al.
network) to share data. The data format is based upon dBASE. These components are settled in a conference room of the Utsunomiya city office (Fig. 3).
The current functions of PIR are (1) to display mesh maps (500m x 500m)
of Utsunomiya city, (2) to visualize numerical data as a graphical expression,
and (3) to aggregate and operate statistical data. The PIR is expandable and
other functions also can be equipped for other needs.
PEs at Utsunomiya
The subject debated in the PE is the location of parks. This topic came from
the result of an investigation held by Utsunomiya city. This resulted from
research into relations between citizens' satisfaction with the living environment and various environmental factors. One of the conclusions of this investigation shows that the existence of a park is related to satisfaction with the
environment, but small-sized parks located in residential areas do not contribute to the citizens cognizance of the amount of green space. This gave rise
to the concern about policies related to the location and the size of the park.
Participants. This PE was held as an activity of a study group to facilitate
information systems for planning. Members of this group are practical class
officers from several sections related to long-range planning. Thus, participants
in the PE have positive opinions on information systems for planning.
Structure of the policy exercise. The aim of this policy exercise is to figure out
the image of policy formation meetings using the PIR. The participants are
required to remember the aim and are requested to:
1. Present the personal opinion of what a park should be
2. Argue the policy relating to parks (philosophy, location, and facilities) as a
public administrator
3. Think about how a meeting should be organized and conducted
4. Make a scenario of a meeting of policy making in the PIR. Through these
tasks, we aimed to draw and share the image of activities in the PIR.
Experiments with the PE
The first PE was held in August, 1991. Twelve participants attended the
meeting from various divisions such as city planning finance, secretary for the
Mayor, general affairs, task management, and planning. It took about 3 h to
debate several topies including the park location project. Further meetings are
planned for once a month.
Conclusion
The PIR is conceptualized as a new in-house informatization measure for
municipalities. The essential characteristics of the PIR is flexibility to extend its
components through user initiatives. An experimental project has been conducted with cooperation between the Utsunomiya city office and the authors.
Municipal Policy Exercises
245
In the Ustunomiya experiment, the authors and the officers of Utsunomiya
municipality also tried a PE as a user-participation approach for designing and
realizing the PIR.
The success in the Utsunomiya city office shows that this approach is transferable to other medium- or small-sized municipalities.
References
Arai K (1990) Learning support systems for creating a future imageol a region. In:
Proceedings of SCOPE 2000 of ISAGAINASAGA 1990, Durham, NH
Kaneda T, Yagaguchi N, Igarashi Y, Kumata Y (1990) Utsunomiya Symbolic Simulator
(USS) as a quantitative simulator for practical use. SCOPE 2000 of ISAGAI
NASAGA 1990, Durham, NH, USA
King J, Kraemer K (1991) Patterns of success in municipal information systems: Lesson
from US experience. Informatization and the Public Sector 1(1)
Ministry of Construction (1982) Urban information database (in Japanese). Keibun,
Tokyo
Ministry of Home Affairs (1990) Almanac on municipal computing use (in Japanese).
Ministry of Home Affairs, Tokyo
Taskforce on Comprehensive Planning Research of JAPA (1990) Newsletter on comprehensive planning research no. 1 (in Japanese). JAPA, Tokyo
Yasufumi Igarashi has a Master's of Engineering from T.I.T. and is now
teaching computer simulations and statistics as an assistant professor at
Kuma1a Laboratory. His main interest is knowledge-based simulation.
Toshiyuki Kaneda has a Doctor of Engineering from T.I.T. He now deals
with teaching and research activities as an assistant at the department of
Social Engineering in T.I.T .. His recent interests are in organizational
development methodology for Japanese municipal governments in the information age.
Yoshinobu Kumata, professor of planning theory, has been teaching a
course on gaming and simulation at the planning department of T.I.T .. He
is still active in developing gaming models as effective tools for university
education, on-the-job training, and methods for evaluating urban development plans and programs.
Space Influences on Earth's Ecological and
Economic Systems
Norihisa Kaneda, Yoshio Ishikawa, Tatsuo Motohashi \
Yoshiki Yamagiwa 2, and Kyoichi Kuriki 3
Abstract. The remarkable growth of the world's economy makes us feel its growth is
unlimited. Economic expansion, however, induces many kinds of unfavorable influences
on the environment: the exhaustion of natural resources, the destruction of nature, and
a shortage of food. Finally we cannot know the limits of growth. One of the remedies
for these ill effects is to promote the utilization of space around the earth. A lunar base
and solar power satellites (SPSs) are projected developments. The influence of these
developments on the terrestrial systems is assessed here by means of a simulation. The
method of "System Dynamics" developed by J.W. Forrester was used to analyze the
evolution of the systems considered. Our model involves three subsystems: the earth,
the lunar base, and the SPS. The following results are obtained from the present
simulation:
1. The use of lunar resources will help us reduce the consumption of terrestrial
resources and improve the economic situation on earth.
2. SPS will enable transfer of electric power to earth after an initial stage, which
provides a solution· to a potential energy crisis. Moreover, we are prevented from
Polluting the air, thereby ensuring economic growth.
Key words Earth; ecology; economy; energy; moon; simulation; space development;
SPS; system dynamics
At present we are faced with many serious problems, such as the exhaustion of
natural resources, the destruction of environments, and a shortage of food,
coupled with growth in population and economy. We suggest that it may be
possible to solve these serious problems by developing the space around the
earth. It is thus important to know which is the better scenario.
In this report, the development of lunar resources and the construction of a
space power satellite (SPS) system are chosen as examples of space develop1 Department of Aerospace Engineering, College of Science and Technology, Nihon
University, 7-24-1 Narashinodai, Funabashi, Chiba, 274 Japan; phone 0474-66-1111;
facsimile 0474-67-9569
2College of Engineering, Shizuoka University, 3-5-1 Johoku, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka,
432 Japan; phone 053-471-1171; facsimile 053-472-0251
3Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Sagamihara,
Kanagawa, 229 Japan; phone 0472-51-3911
246
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248
Kaneda et al.
ments. The effects of these on the ecological and economic systems on earth
are examined for the following cases: (1) independent development of the
earth, (2) simultaneous development of both the earth and the moon, (3)
simultaneous development of both the earth and SPS systems, and (4) development of all of these.
Simulation Models
The method used here is based on that of system dynamics developed by
Forrester (1973); simulations were carried out by the use of the model shown
in Fig. 1, which has been modified and expanded from the so-called World-2
Model by Forrester and the Expanded World-2 Model by Shultz (1988). Some
modifications were done on the World-2 Model to specify natural resources
and pollution by energy resources such as oil, coal, and natural gas and
CO 2 because energy resources have a significant impact on the environment
and they cannot be recycled. Some model expansions were implemented to
include the moon and SPS system into the model with respect to the Expanded
World-2 Model.
Earth Model
In the earth sector in Fig. 1, there are five levels: population (P), capital
investment (CI), natural resources (NR), pollution (POL), and capital investment in agriculture fraction (CIAF). They are related as follows;
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capital fraction indicated by food ratio, CIQR = capital investment from
quality ratio, CIAFT = capital investment in agriculture adjusted over time,
and time step M is taken to be 1 year.
One of the simulation results of the earth model is shown in Fig. 2. It shows
that population and capital investment begin to decrease in the middle of the
first half of the twenty-first century with the increase of CO2 levels. Therefore,
it means that a limits to growth cannot be avoided, so it is necessary to
consider space exploitation as a means of avoiding a decline in ecological and
economic systems on the earth.
Space Influences on Earth Systems
249
Fig. 2. World model (present model). Axis ordinates: Population (P), 1 X 1010 people;
capital investment (C), 5 X 1010 capital units; natural resources (N), 3.24 x 1013
barrels; oil resources (0), 2 X 1012 barrels; CO2 levels (2), 1,000 ppm; quality of life
(Q),2
Fig. 3. Earth-moon model
Earth-Moon Model
The moon sector of the model shown in Fig. 1 consists of two levels: energy
resources (MNR) and capital investment (MCI). These are similar to the same
parts of the earth sector of the model, and they are connected with the earth
sector through the exchange of capital investments, as shown in Fig. 3.
In this case, capital investment from the earth to the moon (CITM) will
be started from SYEAR (2000) when moon development begins and capital
investment from the moon to the earth (CITE) is returned every year from
MYEAR. This assumes that the capital investment fraction to the moon
(CIFM) is equal to 0.3, which means that MYEAR is the year when accumulation of capital of the moon amounts to 30% of that of the earth. 3 He can be
thought of as an energy resource on the moon (MNR) , from which electric
250
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Kaneda et al.
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Fig. 4. Earth-moon model. Axis ordinates: Population (P), 1 x 1010 people; capital
investment (C), 5 x 1010 capital units; oil resources (0), 2 x 1012 barrels; moon capital
investment (M), 5 x 1010 capital units; moon natural resources (H), 1.1 x 109 kg;
COzlevel (2), 1,000 ppm; quality of life (Q), 2. Parameters: SYEAR, 2000; CIFM, 0.3;
MCIDN, 0.025; TRM, 0.004; TRE, 0.02; MYEAR, 2026
energy will be generated by nuclear fusion. The total amount of 3 He on the
moon is estimated at 1.1 x 109 kg. Adopting the value of 0.025 for the capital
investment, normal discard on the moon (MCIDN) results in 40 years' life span
of machines and devices on the moon.
The result in Fig. 4 shows that population can increase generally until the
middle of AD 2300, except a small decrease in the first half of the twenty-first
century caused by a time lag of the effects of moon developments and that
CO 2 levels will be lower than that of the earth model. As described above, it
seems possible to avoid the crisis by using 3 He on the moon as an energy
resource.
Earth-SPS Model
The SPS system has an electric power generation ability of 5 GW per unit,
which can be supplied to the earth in microwaves of 2,450 MHz. According to a
NASA/DOE report (Koomanoff and Riches 1980), the production cost for the
first SPS system, which has a generation ability of 5 GW, was estimated at
US$20,500 per kW and for the following SPS systems, between US$3,100 and
US$16,700 per kW. In this case, the value of US$3,500 per kW is adopted.
The relationship between the earth and SPS is shown in Fig. 5. The capital
investment to construct SPS systems from the earth (CITS) will be started in
Space Influences on Earth Systems
251
Fig. 5. Earth-SPS model
Fig. 6. Earth-SPS model. Axis ordinates: Population (P), 1 x 1010 people; capital
investment (c), 5 x 1010 capital units; natural resources (N), 3.24 x 1013 barrels; oil
resources (0), 2 X 10 12 barrels; CO 2 levels (2), 1,000 ppm; quality of life (Q), 2; electric
energy transfer to earth (E), 50TWyear. Parameters: IYEAR, 2000; CITRS, 0.004;
SCIDN, 0.025; DOLE, US$3,500
IYEAR (2000) and continued every year. The SPS systems will supply electric
energy (ETE) to the earth to the tune of 5 GW to substitute for the fossil fuels
consumed on the earth.
The simulation results are shown in Figs. 6 and 7. Figure 6, in which the
construction cost of SPS systems is the same as that of the developmental cost
on the moon, shows that population can increase and CO 2 level can be
suppressed until the year 2200. But after 2200, the population cannot be
maintained because of the lack of electric power generation capacity of the SPS
systems caused by a significant depreciation in the SPS system (SCIDN),
an increase in CO 2 level, and a decrease in the accumulation of the earth's
capital (C).
Moreover, the capital investment transfer ratio from the earth to SPS
(CITRS) in Fig. 7, is twice as much as that in Fig. 6, which shows that an
252
Kaneda et at.
Fig. 7. Earth-SPS model. Axis ordinates: Population (P), 1 x 1010 people; capital
investment (C), 5 X 1010 capital units; natural resources (N), 3.24 x 1013 barrels; oil
resources (0), 2 X 10 12 barrels; CO 2 levels (2), 1,000 ppm; quality of life (Q), 2; electric
energy transfer to earth (E), 50TWyear. Parameters: IYEAR, 2000; CITRS, 0.008;
SCIDN, 0.025; DOLE, US$3,500
increase in population and a lowering of CO2 levels can be achieved by the
adoption of the value of SCIDN. This becomes clear in comparing Fig. 6 with
Fig. 2. In short, it is clear that considerable capital investments for the construction of SPS systems are necessary to make enough profit in the case of
single construction of SPS systems.
Earth-Moon-SPS Model
The relationship of the earth, the moon, the SPSs will proceed in the following
three steps (Fig. 8). In the first step, capital investment from the earth to the
moon and SPS will be started at the same time (in AD 2000) and the energy
supply from SPS to the earth will be increased by 5 GW each time an SPS is
constructed. In the next step, capital investment to the moon will be stopped
and the capital investment needed to construct an SPS from the moon
(MCITS) will be started in order to take over that from the earth at MYEAR,
when accumulation of the capital of the moon amounts to 20% of that of the
earth. In the final step, all of the construction costs of the SPSs will be covered
with the capital investment from the moon. The construction costs of the SPSs
from the moon (DOLM) is assumed to be US$2,800 per kW because the
gravity of the moon is one sixth of that of the earth.
Space Influences on Earth Systems
First phase
253
Third phase
Second phase
Fig. 8. Earth-moon-SPS model
Fig. 9. Earth-moon-SPS model. Axis ordinates: Population (P), 1 x 1010 people;
capital investment (C), 5 x 1010 capital units; quality of life (Q), 2; oil resources (0), 2
x 1012 barrels; moon capital investment (M), 5 x 10 10 capital units; moon natural
resources (H), 1.1 x 109 kg; CO2 levels (2), 1,000 ppm; electric energy transfer to earth
(E), 50TWyear. Parameters: SYEAR, 2000; IYEAR, 2000; CIFM, 0.2; MCIDN,
0.025; TRM, 0.001; MCITRS, 0.02; DOLM, US$2,800; CITRS, 0.003; SCIDN, 0.025;
DOLE, US$3,500; MYEAR, 2042
254
Kaneda et al.
The simulation results are shown in Fig. 9. Although the total amount of
capital investment for space development invested from the earth is the same
amount in the cases illustrated in Figs. 4, 6, and 9, the simulation shown in Fig.
9 gives the best result; that is, an increase in population and capital investment,
and a decrease in CO 2 levels can be achieved after AD 2100 as the generation of
electric power by the SPSs increases.
It should be noted that in general the degree of the quality of life (Q) is
lower than the standard value in 1970 with these simulation results because of
the increase in population density on the earth.
References
Forrester JW (1973) World dynamics, 2nd edn. Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, MA
Kaneda N, Yamagiwa Y, Kuriki K, Ishikawa Y, Motohashi T (1990a) Effects of
exploitations of near-earth space on ecological and economic systems on Earth (in
Japanese). In: Proceedings of the 34th Space Science and Technology Conference,
Oct 29-31 1990, Japan, pp 288-289
Kaneda N, Suzuki K, Ishikawa Y, Motohashi T, Yamagiwa Y, Kuriki K (1990b)
Influences of developments of space around earth on earth's ecological and economic
systems (in Japanese). In: Proceedings of The Tenth ISAS Space Energy Symposium,
Feb 14-15 1991, Kanagawa, pp 37-43
Koomanoff FA, Riches MR (1980) Final proceedings of the solar power satellite
program review, Conf-800491 DOE/NASA, US
Schultz FW (1988) The Effects of Investment in Extraterrestrial Resources and Manufacturing on the limits to Growth. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, vol.
41, pp 497-508
Yamagiwa Y (1991) (in Japanese) Journal of the Japan Society for Aeronautical and
Space Sciences, vol. 39, pp 282-286
Yamagiwa Y, Kuriki K (1990) (in Japanese) Journal of the Japan Society for
Aeronautical and Space Sciences, vol. 38, pp 516-523
Yamagiwa Y, Kaneda N, Suzuki K, Ishikawa Y, Kuriki K (in press) (in Japanese)
Journal of the Japan Society for Aeronautical and Space Sciences
Norihisa Kaneda is a graduate student. His current interests and activities
are in improving the present model of the earth (World Model), and
modeling a controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) for a lunar
base using system dynamics.
Yoshio Ishikawa has a doctorate in engineering. Recent publications include
"The effects of rocket effluents on the ionosphere," in the proceedings of the
2nd Nihon University International Symposium on Aerospace Science. His
current interest is in system dynamics simulation of a controlled ecological
life support system (CELSS).
Tatsuo Motohashi has a doctorate in engineering and has recently published
"Instabilities around an isolated roughness element," in the proceedings
of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers and Japan Society of
Mechanical Engineers Joint Conference 1991. He is interested in turbulence
Space Influences on Earth Systems
255
structure and laminar to turbulent transition. A favorite short quote is
"Science is nothing without generalizations. Detached and ill-assorted facts
are only raw material and, in the absence of a theoretical solvent, have but
little nutritive value."
Yoshiki Yamagiwa has a doctorate in engineering and has published "A
model of solar power satellite for world dynamics simulation," in the proceedings of the 1991 Solar World Congress, August 1991, as well as "An
Evaluation Model of the Moon Resource Exploitation by the System
Dynamics Simulation-Improved Points and Parameter Analysis," in the
Journal of the Japan Society for Aeronautical and Space Sciences. Current
interests and activities include application of system dynamics to the evalution on space development, and study of space propulsion and traveling
methods in the future.
Kyoichi Kuriki obtained a doctorate in engineering from the University of
Tokyo in 1963. Current interests are electric propulsion, micro gravity ,
lunar bases, and space frontier systems. He is an aerospace committee member of the Science Council of Japan, as well as an American Institute of
Aeronautics and Astronautics Technical Committee Member of Electric
Propulsion and a Lunar Base Committee Member of the International
Academy of Astronautics. He has also been co-investigator of space experiments with particle accelerators (SEPAC) for the Spacelab 1 Mission (197683) and is currently leader of the SFU (Space Flyer Unit) Project (1986).
Appendix
List of Abbreviations
SYEAR : Start year for moon development
IYEAR : Start year for investment for SPS
P
: Population
CI
: Capital investment
NR
: Natural resources
NRO
: Oil resources
POL
: Pollution = ppm of CO 2
CIAF : Capital investment in agriculture fraction
QL
: Quality of life
FR
: Food ratio
MCI
: Moon capital investment
MCIDN : MCI discard normal
MNR
: Moon natural resources
CIFM : Capital investment fraction to the moon
MYEAR: Year when MCI amounts to some fraction of CIFM
MCIX : MCI at MYEAR
CITM : CI transfer to moon [CITM = CI x TRM]
TRM
: Transfer ratio to moon
256
Kaneda et al.
CITE : MCI transfer to earth [CITE = (MCI - MCIX) x TRE]
TRE
: Transfer ratio to earth
SCI
: SPS capital investment
SCION : SCI discard normal
STE
: SPS total energy
CITS
: CI transfer to SPS [CITS = CI x CITRS]
CITRS : CI transfer ratio to SPS
MCITS : MCI transfer to SPS [MCITS = (MCI - MCIX) x MCITRS]
MCITRS: MCI transfer ratio to SPS
ORES : Dependent ratio of earth energy to SPS
DOLE : US$lkW from earth for constructing SPS
DOLM : US$/kW from moon for constructing SPS
ETE
: Electric energy transfer to earth
Section 4
Economics and Business
Global Changes in Business and Economics
Richard D. Teach!
Abstract. The winds of change are blowing on the earth. While there are unseen forces
at work, many are known. The biggest change is the recognition that it is the market
place and not command economics that drives economic activity and growth. As global
markets grow, there will be room for many entrepreneurial endeavors. One can expect
to see some equalization of economic well-being across the economically-advanced
nations, and more countries being admitted to this club. Simulation and gaming will
playa major role in training the managers and planners of the future.
Key words economic changes; global economics; the role of gaming; teaching market
place economics
It may be trite to say, but the only two sure things about the future are that (1)
it will occur and (2) it will be different. In the 1890s, a bill was introduced into
the lower house of the United States Legislature to close the Patent Office.
"There would soon be no need for it as there was nothing left to invent. All of
the possible useful and meaningful inventions had already taken place!" The
bill did not pass.
If one reads the prognostications of only a few years ago and compares the
forecasts with current reality, they have been little better than the science
fiction writers of the 1930s and 40s. The future is coming but we do not know
what it will bring. At the ISAGA meeting in Weimar, how many were able to
predict the fall of the "Wall" and the movement of Eastern Europe to new
governments, or the current breakup of Yugoslavia? Even 1 year ago today,
who could foretell the Gulf War? Even if one cannot predict the future, there
are several happenings which will shape this future we all will share.
1 School of Management, Ivan Allen College of Management, Policy and International
Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0520 US; phone 404-89443-55; facsimile 404-894-60-30; e-Mail RT17@Hydra.GaTech.edu
259
260
Teach
Worldwide Recognition of the Market Place as the Driving
Force Behind Economic Activity
The primary change in the world's economic philosophy has been the almost
universal adoption of the consumer sovereignty or the market-place precepts of
Adam Smith. The market place with its inefficiencies, redundancies, shortages,
surpluses, and miscalculations will shape economic activities. However, there
are some important parts of this philosophy which all of us seem to forget from
time to time. The part about the "hidden hand" must not be overlooked. The
power and danger of either self-made cartels or government-sponsored and/or
protected cartels are enormous. One cannot protect the automobile worker in
Europe, the electronics worker in the US, or the rice farmer in Japan without
economic consequences to and from each affected party.
However, governments must remember to temper the efficiency of a market
economy with compassion for those who may not have all the skills to survive
the harsh realities of the free market in the short run.
One of the phenomena of global marketing is that it creates niche markets.
As firms such as Coca Cola, Sony, and Siemens, with worldwide product
recognition, market their products to the world's buyers, cultural differences
and local customs are not used to a great extent in the marketing appeals and
promotions. These local needs may be too small or change too fast for multinational firms to pursue, but they are perfect markets for small, quick-acting,
entrepreneurial firms to exploit.
The time it takes from the birth of a concept or idea to its realization in
products available to the general public is getting shorter and shorter. For
example, the general adoption of the telephone in the United States took 30
years. Bell Telephone was founded in 1887, and by 1916 the telephone was in
general use in the US. The adoption of television in the US was much faster; it
took only about 15 years. In 1946, 24 licenses were granted fot television
stations and by 1960, well over 85% of US households had at least one
television set. Faster still is the current trend of microcomputers. Apple
Computer introduced the Apple II in 1978, and by 1985 micros were standard
fare in American high schools and upscale homes. This spread of new technology took only about 8 years. The spread of future technologies is expected
to be even more rapid.
As a Proportion of Gross National Product, Military Output
Will Decrease While Civilian Output Will Grow
With a decrease in the level of confrontation between East and West, and
hopefully within the Middle East, the military proportion of the gross national
product of the West as represented by the US and NATO, and the East as
exemplified by the USSR and the now non-existent Warsaw Pact, will fall. This
should free up both capital and human resources for the fulfillment of human
Global Changes in Business and Economics
261
wants and needs and for consumer satisfaction. The military took first priority
in R&D. expenditures and "consumed" the best engineers. Given the proportion of GNP spent on defense, was it any wonder that the US lost ground in its
internal economic development? The nation's entire secondary educational
system could have been reworked with only the cost of one new weapons
system. What occurred in the Soviet Union is even a more severe example.
As the resource-consuming industrial-military complex is wound down and
these resources are shifted to civilian and public goods, a substantial economic
boost should occur. The civilian spinoffs from defense spending have been
overrated. This shift will, however, create an enormous need for retraining. Simulation and gaming will prove to be excellent tools to assist in this
retraining.
Leveling of the Economic Growth Rates Among the World's
Economic Powers
Economic growth rates are somewhat analogous to learning curves. That is,
efficiency and growth rates vary with the logarithm of output, not in a linear
fashion. As the educational and social bases of the world's greatest economies
get larger, their differential growth rates will cause the economies to become
more equal. There will be short-term bursts by one country over another
as competitive advantages exist for periods of time but, by and large, the
economic well-being of citizens of the economically advanced nations of the
world will slowly, but inevitably, achieve parity. There are few reasons that the
economic benefit, or real income, derived from working in an automobile
factory would vary from country to country for long periods of time. The same
can be said of managing a retail facility, providing services, or even teaching in
a university.
The Changing Role of the US
'In 1945, the only heavily industrialized economies to come out of World War II
without serious damage were the US and Canada. This dominance in the postwar period could have been characterized as almost imperial, if not arrogant.
The US then became the world's policeman, spending a large part of its
technological research capability, engineering manpower, and technology
development on new and improved military hardware. (The same general
comments can be said of the Soviet Union.) This period is coming to culmination now as the war resulting from the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait has ended. In
the future, I expect to see the foreign policy position of the US to be more selfcentered and less global. The US will devote more of its resources to its own
domestic economic well-being and allow the rest of the world to pick up the
slack. Note that, currently, Japan spends a higher portion of its GNP on
foreign aid than does the US.
262
Teach
The Place of Simulation and Gaming in the Changing Global
Economies
Many of the world's newly emerging economies have little recent experience
with the market place as the method of apportioning economic wealth. The
move from central planning with its centralized decision making has been seen
by many as a shift to a more responsive society. However, a market driven
economy does not guarantee a tyranny free society. An ISAGA member from
the "East" spoke to me about the quick change of philosophy as the German
Democratic Republic was absorbed into the Federal Republic of Germany in
1990. He said "The same individuals who strongly espoused the socialist way a
year ago, encouraging one to work for the good of their country and socialism,
are now quick to praise the market-based economy and they do so with the
vigor of a nineteenth century capitalist."
Teaching and training individuals how to move from a centrally-planned
economy to one determined by day-to-day events in the market place is not a
trivial chore. The experience of 75 years existence after the Russian Revolution
has changed capitalism. It has given it heart and compassion.
Those who will manage these new economic entities need to learn quickly.
They will learn, not by the book, but by experiencing management through
simulation and gaming. The training of these new managers (managers shifting
from centrally planned to market-oriented economies and managers shifting
from defense-oriented industries to domestic consumption industries) will be
the challenge of ISAGA and others whose task is education and training. The
continued economic growth and the well-being of the world's population will
depend upon how well these new managers are trained.
Richard Teach has delivered academic papers and lectures throughout the
United States, and in Canada, England, France, Italy, The Netherlands,
Germany, and Japan. He has published articles in Management Science,
Operational Research Quarterly, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of
Marketing, Academy of Management Review, Simulation & Gaming, and
others. His research was awarded the "Best Simulation Research Paper" at
the 1990 ABSEL conference. He is an Associate Editor of Simulation &
Gaming: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research.
An Econometric Simulation Model:
The Case of FUGI/MS
Masuo Aisol, Akira Onishil, Fumiko Kimura2 , Masayasu Atsumil,
Toshiaki [motol, and Yuji Tokiwa 3
Abstract. FUGIIMS is a collection of computer software to support the building of the
FUGI Global Model and its use for simulation. FUGIIMS is under prototype development towards an expert system. The key point of software design is to represent and
interpret the model-builder's requirements correctly and consistently. The requirements
as knowledges representation are classified into two categories: model specifications and
constraints. The model specifications are formal descriptions of a target model. The
constraints are the knowledge on model-building procedures which make the model
workable and justify its functioning. The information technologies of visualization,
micro-mainframe link, and global computer networks will help promote the research
tasks.
Key words econometric methods; expert system; knowledge base; large scale; micromainframe link; networking; simulation; specifications; visual presentation
One of the most effective methods of analyzing the ever-increasing international nature of economic and social activities is to construct an econometric
simulation model on a computer. The use of a model can both increase
understanding of the current situation and help to evaluate policy alternatives
for future development. The benefit of econometric modeling can be realized
through the extensive use of a computer for designing, building, and validating
the model.
The procedures of building and applying the model require repeated steps
comprising professional tasks. There exists a number of potential problem
domains where information technologies, such as knowledge-based expert sys-
1 Department
of Information Systems Science, Faculty of Engineering, Soka University,
1-236 Tangi-cho, Hachioji Tokyo, 192 Japan; phone 426-91-2211; facsimile 426-91-9311;
e-mail AISO@JPNSOKA2.BITNET
2 Institute for Systems Science, Soka University, 1-236 Tangi-cho, Hachioji, Tokyo, 192
Japan; phone 426-91-9430; facsimile 426-91-9431 e-mail FKIMURA@JPNSOKA2.
BITNET
3IBM Japan, 19-21 Nihonbashi, Hakozaki-cho, Chuo-ku Tokyo, 103 Japan; phone 33808-9252; facsimile 3-3664-4839; e-mail IBMSE@JPNSOKA2.BITNET
263
264
Aiso et at.
tems, visualization, micro-mainframe computer links, and global computer
networking, could play key roles.
Description of the FUGIIMS
The FUGI Modeling System (FUGIIMS) is a collection of computer software
used for the construction and application of the FUGI Model in a simulation.
There are four major programming modules: a database module, an estimation
module, a simulation module, and a presentation module. In this paper, the
current version of the program is described along with some issues on designing
and developing a large-scale econometric simulation system. Figure 1 indicates
an overall function schematic of FUGIIMS.
The database module accommodates three major types of data files: original,
country, and region files. The original files store data from different information sources, such as the UN, the OEeD, and the IMF. The original files are
aggregated by country to form a country file. The region file is drawn from the
country file. The estimation module uses a series of statistical tools to operate
on the data. The simulation module is used for validating solutions of the
model. The equations are grouped into three blocks: a reduced form block, a
simultaneous block, and a successive calculation block.
Several techniques of presenting the results of the simulation are provided.
Major examples are the world maps which present simulation results in color
with a zooming facility, business graphics such as histograms, bar charts,
and text displays through which we can see the model structures and other
documents.
Design Considerations
The FUGI Model is an example of a large-scale simulation model composed
of mathematical expressions created by the use of econometric procedures.
Large-scale systems' complexity was studied and the following objectives were
set.
The system should be an expert system exploiting the technologies of artificial intelligence which are aimed at automated and integrated model building
(see, e.g., Atsumi 1991). Two kinds of knowledge bases can be identified:
model specification and model-building procedures. The current version of
FUGIIMS has been implemented using the following model specification:
1. Flexible databases in creation, maintenance, and retrieval
2. Parameter estimation employing expert judgement as well as hypotheses
imposed by statistical methods and techniques
3. Verification of the model solution
4. Goal-oriented simulations
The results of the simulation are presented graphically, with vision allowing
for easy understanding. Vision means to see and understand the contents of
An Econometric Simulation Model
265
,"
SPEClFICATION - Theoretical Model
..-
Data Collection
•
•
.
---- ----------- ----
....----------------- -
T
R
t
A
I
N
T
S
STRUcrURE - Computable Model
•
•
Simulation
-Validation
-Forecasting
•
C
o
N
S
Parameter Estimation
".,,\
,
...
....---------
. . . .. . ...
Presentation
Fig_ 1. Overall structure of FUGIIMS
the simulation both intuitively and synthetically. The technology of scientific
visualization is becoming more important and complex in information processing with the advancement of supercomputers and graphic workstations. It is
said that an important use of vision in manufacturing is defect detection
(Helms 1990). Likewise, the use of vision in econometric simulation systems is
effective in tuning the model and its computation as well as in presenting the
final results for information dissemination.
In large-scale econometric simulation research, we cannot rely solely on
personal computers because they cannot always provide capabilities such as
high-speed computation or resources such as large storage_ The capabilities of
a large mainframe computer can be added to the flexibility of personal computers; this is called micro-mainframe linkage. This idea will be realized
through the following approaches (Kravitz 1986).
266
Aiso et al.
1. Access to data created by host programs from a personal computer program
2. Access to the communication network of the host computer
3. A method of extending personal computer data storage using mainframebased disk storage facilities
It is advisable to use global computer network technologies more extensively
in the global community of simulation and gaming. We recommend the use of
networks such as Bitnet and Internet, which are readily available as global
academic computer networks (Aiso 1990). They provide useful functions, such
as:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Electronic mail as a daily communication tool
File transfer to exchange databases, software, or documents
Remote procedure call or log-in to use powerful central server machines
Electronic bulletin boards for discussions of special interest groups
Teleconferences which enable simulation and gaming among remotely
located people.
Conclusions
Many people believe that collaboration via computer networks is extremely
helpful in developing academic friendships that could not have been made
through letters or telephone calls. It is particularly interesting to do simulation
and gaming among globally distributed centers, such as ICONS or IDEALS
(see Crookall et aI, this volume).
References
Aiso M (1990) Computer-based communication to promote international academic
projects. 2nd Workshop of Global Modeling, Tbilisi, October
Atsumi M (1991) A knowledge-based econometric modelling support system based on
hypothesis-based reasoning with case-based hypothesis generation and modification.
International Symposium on Economic Modelling, University of London, July
Helms RM (1990) Introduction to image technology. IBM Systems Journal 29(3)
Kravitz LK et al. (1986) Workstations and mainframe computers working together.
IBM Systems Journal 25(1)
Managing a Post-Communist Economy:
A Gaming/Simulation Study
Miroslaw Dlugosz and Elzbieta Naumienko 1
Abstract. Successful transformation from a command-and-control into a market
economy, whether economic, political or social, has to include changes in attitudes,
development of new skills, and adaptation to new circumstances. Ex-communist legislators, policy-makers, or managers have to respond flexibly to fluid, open-system
circumstances never before experienced. The process of retraining results in increased
intellectual awareness of new management standards. However, it tends to bring about
only little change in management practice. To explain this phenomenon as well as some
other key issues concerning business transformation, a game-based study was undertaken last year. In this paper we discuss examples of management perception of
different challenges when change is accomplished in the simulated environment and
matched with verbal statements concerning exactly the same problems. The heritage of
management culture and fears concerning business transformation are also presented.
Key words barrier of routinized perception; business transformation; gamingl
simulation; management culture; research laboratory
The cultural orientation of any organization reflects the complex interaction of
the values, attitudes, and behaviors displayed by its members. Individuals
express cultural norms through behavior considered appropriate in the organization for a given situation. Senior managers need to monitor and influence
continually changing patterns of individual and group behavior in order that
the organization will grow, develop, and if necessary become transformed
(Adler 1991). This conceptual feedback model, although theoretically correct,
has been hard to confirm in the post-communist management environment.
Evidence shows (Naumienko and Dlugosz 1989, Lawrence and Vlachoutsicos
1990) that because of the absence of strong incentives to adapt to change,
the majority of decision makers who developed their skills in a commandand-control economy are neither prepared for economic reform nor able to
capitalize on the new economic conditions afforded them.
IFaculty of Management, University of Warsaw, 02-678 Warsaw, Szturmowa St. 3,
Poland; phones (48/22) 47 1981 (w); facsimile (48/22) 216000
267
268
Dlugosz and Naumienko
Business Transformation: The Necessity for Change in
Management Culture
Business transformation, however, requires values and skills radically different
from previously appreciated ones. For the last 2 years numerous efforts have
been undertaken to promote management standard changes in Poland. New
legal and economic rules have been introduced, many companies have entered
the process of ownership transformation, and assistance of Western consultants
and lecturers for a wide range of companies has been provided. Evidence
fmm the World Bank, the British Council, and other international organizations shows that company representatives who have participated in courses on
Western management standards were usually very successful in passing final
tests. This suggests that the necessary condition for change was accomplished.
However, many Western partners, potential investors, or new owners continued to complain about the inability of retrained domestic partners (managers, employees) to act according to the new, market-oriented rules.
Gaming/Simulation as a Research Laboratory
Research Objectives
These repeated complaints, directed to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce
as well as to the Ministry of Privatization, encouraged us to undertake a study
on behavior patterns versus the ideas and intentions of different interest groups
within organizations.
Research Sample
The study was undertaken in 1990-1991 as an integral part of numerous gamebased training seminars given for industrial decision-makers by the Polish
Parliament (Committee of the National Economy and Industrial Policy), the
Confederation of Polish Employers, the Management Development Centre of
the Ministry of Industry, the Polish Institute of Management, and the Warsaw
University School of Management. Six hundred company members, representing different interest groups in their organizations participated in the study.
They were recruited from businesses all over the country. Half of them (executives 9%, managers 42%) represented commonly recognized decision power
within their organization, the rest (worker councils 18%, Solidarity 24%, other
labor unions 7%) were the major political forces in state-owned companies
(Fig. 1). The test group (10% of the whole sample) was drawn from senior and
graduate students of the School of Management of Warsaw University.
Research Tools
The research method was chosen to maximize three dimensions: the ability to
generalize from the sample, the control and precision with which to evaluate
Managing a Post-Communist Economy
269
Managers 42.0%
9.0% Executives
Worker
Counc i Is
7.0% Other
Unions
24.0% Solidarity
Total sample of 600 industrIal
decision-makers
Fig. 1. Distribution of industrial research sample according to interest group from a
total sample of 600 industrial decision makers
the behaviors, and the realism of the setting in which the actors behave
(McGrath 1982). Gaming/simulation was considered to be especially appropriate here (Keys and Wolfe 1990).
In this study the "research laboratory" was based on two computer-supported
organizational games covering different aspects of managing micro and macro
organizations. These were the OwnerTransformLE game (Naumienko and
Dlugosz 1990), a gaming exercise on the logistics of privatization of a typical
enterprise, and STRATEGEM, simulation on national economy development
(Meadows 1984). These complex gaming/simulations permitted the researchers
to monitor the decision-making processes within highly realistic contexts and in
a turbulent business environment (Klabbers 1990, Dlugosz 1990).
Although complex, the two games used in the study represented well-defined
problems (Simon and Newell 1972) with clear, numerically defined criteria
for winning. The gaming sessions were conducted according to recognized
standards (Greenblat and Duke 1981).
During each research session the strategies and game results were carefully
recorded. Close observations (often videotaped) of behavior and decisionmaking patterns were conducted. Prior to the gaming sessions the researchers
collected from the players questionnaire-based data on players' opinion and
attitudes concerning the same issues as in the gaming/simulations.
Impact of Management Culture on Managing Change in
Organizations
Even though the participants were placed in almost "sterile" conditions for the
release of their creativity in decision making, the results of the simulations
were far from rational. Irrationality in strategy formulation was repeatedly
observed in various research groups and during different gaming/simulations.
270
Dlugosz and Naumienko
EXECUTIVES
MANAGERS
GRAD STUDENTS
WORKER COUNCILS
SOLIDARITY
~Resul
OTHER UN IONS
o
25
50
ts of
Ac t ion
_Verbal
Statements
75
% of respondents
Fig. 2. Focus on economic criteria in decision making
To explain these irrationalities, a series of experiments were conducted, involving step-by-step elimination of the cognitive (information), motivational, and
competence limits. However, these alterations did not change the results
considerably. The quality of decisions was still poor.
Systematic (and often videotaped) observations of team behavior and discussions with game participants shed some light on the nature of the problem.
It became clear that the participants were transferring the patterns of their
real-life behavior into the game environment. Further investigation showed
that this particular phenomenon had an axiological rather than a psychologybased explanation. This persistence of habit, even in situations where it is no
longer functional, may therefore be considered a fourth structural rationality
constraint (in addition to the previously mentioned cognitive, motivational,
and competence limits). We have called this the barrier of routinized perception
(Naumienko and Dlugosz 1989, Dlugosz 1990, in press).
Let us concentrate on the four most striking examples of behavior patterns
and decision strategies developed by the decision makers under study by
comparing them with their verbal statements prior to gaming sessions.
Perception of Organization Goals and Objectives
In managing the simulated enterprises, participants tended to concentrate on
capacity utilization rather than on economic aspects of manufacturing. The
majority paid almost no or very little attention to profitability analysis when
accepting orders from customers (Fig. 2). Instead of looking for the least costly
or most profitable options, they continued to define their goals in terms of
accepting and fulfilling all incoming orders (even those whose costs exceeded
their expected revenues), and in terms of maintaining a high index of capacity
utilization (regardless of the costs involved). Although this pattern of behavior
conflicted with an economically based criterion for winning (known prior to
Managing a Post-Communist Economy
271
_ _ _ _ 61
EXECUTIVES
MANAGERS
[5
GRAD STUDENTS
" , ,_ _ 58
WORKER COUNCILS
. . . . .- 60
SOLIDARITY
~Result
OTHER UN IONS
o
Ac t ion
of
Verbal
Statements
25
50
75
% of respondents
Fig. 3. Focus on quality issues in decision making
the gaming sessions), the participants continued to explain their behavior by
referring to their long experience in their own particular organizations. It is
necessary to emphasize here that for decades the principal goal of commandand-control firms was to "produce as much as possible, keep the machines
going."
Although verbally declared to be important, the problem of quality of production did not playa critical role in creating decision strategies (Fig. 3). Game
participants coming from real organizations preferred quantity to quality,
although there were significant incentives in the simulation to encourage
emphasis on quality and to maintain a high market share. These behavior
patterns powerfully reflected players' experience of working for years in a
producer-oriented professional environment.
The Simulated Company and Its Environment
Observations were made of the way participants interacted as team members.
In each of the games, a set of accessories was available that represented
different resources and decision-support tools of varying complexity. Distinct
game roles were assigned to different participants or groups of participants. All
these accessories constituted the operational frame. The participants, however,
had complete freedom to create their own organizational structure with their
own matching internal information system supported by appropriate tools and
techniques. Although given this opportunity, only very rarely did the teams
manage to create their own tailor-made organization structure, complete with
delegation of responsibilities and an adequate decision-support system.
Team members were mainly inward looking; very rarely were they market
led. Delegation of responsibilities, either internal or external, existed only on
paper. This particular feature was especially noticeable when the company or
the state had to negotiate credits. Instead of delegating financial representa-
272
Dlugosz and Naumienko
tives (with prepared business plans and other documents) to negotiate with the
bank officers (located physically in the same room but at their own table with
their own computer decision-support system), the participants kept asking the
bankers to join the group to discuss their case. The fear of delegating responsibility on the one hand, and of taking responsibility on the other, resulted
in overexpansion of the verification procedures. Everybody was involved in
making all decisions, in discussing every single detail. All decisions were
frequently checked before being submitted for computation-in case of failure,
nobody was to blame.
Any difficulties, even temporary ones, provoked a very specific type of
behavior. The teams would always claim some sort of "special status," like
getting low-interest credits, foreign aid, or asking for a change in the game
rules or other forms of privileges. Very rarely did the teams try to overcome
difficulties by themselves. This pattern ,pf hehavior also corresponds directly
with players' real-life situations. For many years the companies operated within
so-called soft budget constraints. Moreover, regardless of the results of operation, they could relatively easily get exemption from the obligatory rules
imposed by the government. The ease with which this special status could be
claimed (without any obvious reason), instead of creating an effective strategy
within a given space of action, therefore became the axiological feature of
decision makers. It was then transferred from the professional reality to the
simulated environment.
Managing the National Economy
Regardless of the type of organization (micro, macro) the participants rarely
succeeded in creating a strategic vision of their organizations. Instead of defining their strategic goals and aims of operation, they concentrated on day-today activities. This short-term orientation often resulted in players making
decisions which were suitable in the short term, but which would probably be
ineffective in the long run. The lack of strategic vision often resulted in putting
such organizations in a state of permanent disequilibrium, which resulted in
massive wastage of resources and a lowered level of human satisfaction.
When given investment opportunities, the participants tended to choose
options associated with expanding production capacity, even if their existing
capacity was being only partially utilized. Only a few players invested in the
more efficient utilization of existing capital or tried to increase labor productivity by investing in management education or by development of other social
services. At the national economy level, investment priorities were directed
towards heavy industry rather than towards technologically advanced and
energy-efficient industries like electronics, services such as education or health,
and environmental protection or energy-efficiency solutions (Fig. 4a,b).
Ecological considerations were at the lowest level of investment priorities.
Any study of statistical data on the Polish government's investments in these
areas over the years shows very similar trends. This comparison suggests that
ignorance of global issues (those easily recognized and defined by Westerners)
Managing a Post-Communist Economy
273
50.0% Heavy
Industry
8.0% Environm.
Protection
Social
27.0%
Services
15.0% Energy
Eff ic iency
a
34.0% Heavy
Industry
1111
Social
Services 32.0% ~
14.0% Environm.
Protec t lOn
b
20.0% Energy
Eff ic iency
Fig.4a,b. Investment preferences of industrial decision makers (a) and students (b)
is a structural feature of our system. To confirm this notion one could compare attitudes towards the same problems shown by participants coming from
countries with a well-established tradition of investing in these "soft" areas.
Another result of the absence of strategic vision, especially on the macro
economic level, was the tendency of either not to take foreign credits, or, if
taken, to use them for operational purposes, namely to maximize short-term
interests by satisfying comsumption needs. Only in a few cases were the credits
used as a first, initial "investment push" to stimulate the economy, although
this strategy led to a very high return after a longer period of time. The fear of
being in debt was overpowering. The high level of awareness here, coming
from real-life experience of being citizens of a highly indebted country, often
resulted in extreme strategies to avoid falling into debt. In many cases teams
finished gaming sessions with significant savings, even though the value of their
bank account had no influence on the criteria for winning, and this was always
discussed in detail prior to each gaming session.
These behavior patterns strongly correspond with the country's reality.
Foreign credits taken in the early 1970s were mostly used for consumption
purposes. Since then the country has not been able to repay those credits and
the accumulated interest, although each year a large portion of export income
274
Dlugosz and Naumienko
EXECUTIVES
MANAGERS
GRAD STUDENTS
WORKER COUNCILS
SOLIDARITY
OTHER UNIONS
a
0
20
40
60
80
100 120
0
20
40
60
80
100 120
EXECUTIVES
MANAGERS
GRAD STUDENTS
WORKER COUNCILS
SOLIDARITY
OTHER UNIONS
b
% of respondents
Fig. 5a,b. Owner preferences of different interest groups. a results of action. b verbal
declarations. The four ownership options were employee (open area), private domestic
(single hatching), joint venture with foreign capital (double hatching), and state (shaded
area)
is directed just for these purposes. Poland's politicians, economists, and massmedia representatives repeatedly argue that the low standard of living of
society is a direct result of foreign credits taken years ago. But they do not
mention that the majority of those original credits were spent on consumption,
not on investment.
Perception of Systems Transformation
The major problem to be solved when playing the OwnerTransformLE game
was to find the most effective way to transform the company into a private
venture. Having four options available (state ownership, joint venture with
foreign capital, private venture with domestic capital, employee ownership),
different interest groups repeatedly choose patterns characteristic of their
political orientation (Fig. Sa). The majority (40% of executives and other labor
unions, and up to 60% of solidarity and worker councils) chose a system of
Managing a Post-Communist Economy
275
EXECUTIVES
More
MANAGERS
Month
~7-12
GRAD STUDENTS
Sdlary
c::::=J 4 - 6 Mon t h
Sdlary
WORKER COUNCILS
[2Z2J 2- 3
Mon th
Saldry
SOLIDARITY
~1
OTHER UNIONS
Month
Sdlary
Ww~"'None
o
20
40
60
80
100 120
% of respondents
Fig. 6. How many monthly salaries would you spend on shares?
employee ownership. Other options, although not so popular, had strong
followers and fanatic opponents. If the private venture option was chosen, both
executives and managers preferred a joint stock company with foreign capital
to a domestic company (executives, 36% against 12%; managers, 15% against
9% ). State ownership was preferred most by other labor unions (40%) and
least by Solidarity (8%) and the worker councils (9%). Student preferences
concentrated mostly on joint venture (68%) against private domestic (14%),
employee ownership (13%) and state ownership (5%).
The results of the simulation almost perfectly matched players' pre-game
declarations (Fig. 5b). The distribution of choices corresponded with the hopes
and fears of the former and current political leaders in Poland. In the case of
the students it became clear that they considered transformation an opportunity for their fuller professional development. They perceived the process of
change in terms of professional and financial improvement rather than political
self-realization.
The concept of stocks issued by privatized companies and stock market
operations also became an issue in the simulation. Behavior patterns observed
when players purchased securities showed that more than half of the participants in each interest group were anxious to buy shares in their own
company. This positive attitude towards their own shares varied from 51 % of
other labor unions to 63% of managers, 70% of worker councils, 69% of
Solidarity, 70% of executives, and 51% of students. This indicates that the
general tendency was very strong, especially if compared to a preference for
other shares offered on the market, where only one third of the players on
average were willing to take the risk. Considering the amount of money
allotted for shares (Fig. 6) the general tendency was to spend 2-3 monthly
salaries. Less than 2% of all participants wanted to spend more than a yearly
salary on securities. Other labor unions (43%) were the most and executives
276
Dlugosz and Naumienko
EXECUTIVES
MANAGERS
GRAD STUDENTS
OTHERS
JOB
SECURITY
WORKER COUNCILS
SOLIDARITY
~GAIN
OTHER UN IONS
o
20
40
60
80
INFLUENCE
_EARN
MONEY
100 120
% of respondents
Fig. 7. Why would you buy shares in your own company?
(18%) were the least resistant to buying shares. Here again the verbal declarations expressed in the questionnaire closely matched the behavior pattern
observed during gaming sessions.
In order to understand players' behavior concerning securities, additional
questionnaire-based data were collected. When asked why they would buy
shares of their own company and having four response options available (to
earn money, gain influence, for job security, others), approximately one
third of all game participants, regardless of their orientation and positions,
responded "to earn money" (Fig. 7). But the motive of gaining influence was
even more important; approximately 40% for all interest groups except for
other labor unions (only 21 % ). This latter group came out to be mostly
undecided and scoring low towards the principal motives (option other, 43%).
Another interesting feature observed was the attitude of different interest
groups towards getting dividends in the form of company shares rather than
money. The executives were the most (68%), and other labor unions the least,
39% approving of this particular option. The average was 45% for and 55%
against non-cash dividends. The attitude observed here reflects the general
tendency of the Poles still to be distrustful of non-cash operations.
It is necessary to emphasize here that most of the game participants had
never dealt with the concept of securities before. Therefore their behavior
strongly corresponded with their overall understanding of this new approach to
money management.
Implications
For years management theorists have argued that organizations are beyond the
influence of culture and that they are only determined by technology and task.
Managing a Post-Communist Economy
277
Today it is generally accepted that work is not simply a mechanistic outgrowth of either technology or task, and that at every level, culture profoundly
influences organizational behavior (Adler 1991).
The behavior patterns observed during numerous gaming sessions strongly
supported this latter interpretation. It appeared that the cultural background of
the players created perceptional barriers to their decision making within the
simulation. This observation corresponds to those of Dlugosz (1990, in press).
There was a discrepancy between players' operational behavior and their
intellectual awareness of new possibilities in management style. This tendency
to fall back on culturally oriented command-and-control behavior may be hard
to understand and even much harder to accept by those brought up and
educated in entirely different systems. It may also become a significant barrier
of communication between managers of our region and those from Western
economies.
It was further observed that players who had not been caught up in a
command-and-control management style showed none of the discrepancies
between verbal statements and .action that have been described above. These
players included students with no management experience and real-world
decision makers who were accustomed to change. However, this observation
should not lead to the conclusion that decision makers having the axiological
background of a command-and-control economy cannot adapt successfully to
new, market-oriented behavior.
Poland and all other post-communist countries have been and will be
exposed to Western aid in the form of technology and knowledge transfer. The
standards, methods, and procedures to be transferred are those successful
in the countries of their origin. It does not, however, mean that they will
automatically be successful or easily adopted in the countries of communist
heritage. The results of our research show that in the case of management
training and development, a study on sensitivity of the target population of
decision makers to issues and standards to be transferred is a necessary prior
condition to the transfer process itself. Examples presented here indicate that
in some subject areas, all groups of managers will be willing to take this new
knowledge for granted, and in some other areas, the most we can achieve using
traditional methods is to increase intellectual awareness of new standards
without radical change in management style.
Separation between "knowing" and "doing" leads us to another very
important conclusion. The results of our research call for reorientation towards
action rather than intellectual learning. Referring to the Confucian proverb "1
hear and 1 forget, 1 see and 1 remember, 1 do and 1 understand," an active
learning approach to management education and development should be
adopted. This may result in much higher transferability to emerging Western
cultures.
278
Dlugosz and Naumienko
References
Adler N (1991) International dimensions of organizational behavior. PWS-Kent,
Boston, MA
Dlugosz M (1990) Decision games in organization research and improvement (in
Polish). Polish Economic Publishers, Warsaw
Dlugosz M (in press) Post-communist executives and new management freedoms: A
gaming/simulation study. Scandinavian Journal of Management
Greenblat C, Duke R (1981) Principles and practices of gaming-simulation. Sage,
Newburg Park, CA
Keys B, Wolfe J (1990) The role of management games and simulations in education
and research. Journal of Management 16(2):307-336
Klabbers J (1990) Problem-setting through gaming. 7th International Conference of
WACRA, University of Twente, The Netherlands
Lawrence PR, Vlachoutsicos CA (1990) Managerial patterns: Differences and commonalities. Harvard Business School Press, Harvard, MA
McGrath JE (1982) Dillematics: The study of research choices and dillemas. In:
MacGrath JE, Martin J, Kulka RA (eds) Judgement calls in research. Sage, Newbury
Park
Meadows D (1984) User's manual for STRATEGEM-l. RPC, Dartmouth College
Maumienko E, Dlugosz M (1989) Using management games to test Polish managers'
preparation for the economic reform. ISAGA '89, Weimar, Germany
Naumienko E, Dlugosz M (1990) Gaming/simulation and the challenges of Eastern
Europe. Opening Plenary Session of ISAGAINASAGA '90, Durham NH
Naumienko E, Dlugosz M (1991) Exploring new management freedoms in a postcommunist economy: Gaming approach. WACRA '91, Berlin
Simon HA, Newell A (1972) Heuristic problem solving: The next advance in operation
research. Operations Research 4: 152-163
Elzbieta Naumienko PhD is a director of the Post-Graduate Executive
Program at Warsaw University School of Management, and a member of
the Board of Directors of ISAGA (International Simulation and Gaming
Association). She is an independent management consultant (and a member
of the editorial board of the "Organization Review," a professional monthly
journal for managers and management educators. She is also vice-president
of the Foundation for Constructive Change and a director of the "Gaming
for Poland" project. She has coauthored 7 computer-supported management
games, for UNIDO, WHO, and domestic organizations, and authored
(coauthored) numerous articles in the field of gaming/simulation.
Miroslaw Dlugosz PhD is a faculty member of the School of Management,
University of Warsaw, personal advisor to the Minister of Industry and
Commerce, former secretary of the Parliamentary Committee of the
National Economy and Industrial Policy, and director of the Parliamentary
Monitoring Task Force. He is a general director of the Polish Institute of
Management and a deputy editor of the "Management Science" quarterly
of the Polish Scientific Publishers and the University of Warsaw. He
has coauthored 6 computer-supported management games and authored
(coauthored) over 80 articles and four books in the field of decision making
and gaming/simulation.
Strategic Decision Making in
Business Gaming
Arata Ichikawa!, Minoru Mukuda 2 , and Hideo Inaba 3
Abstract. Almost every decision-making player in business games in the classroom
environment is interested in the final financial status, such as the profit of their
company, rather than the attainment of the strategic business goals which their professors expect them to implement through their decision making. Although profit is the
most important measure for decision makers in real business, it should be noted that
they will find the available options and select from them according to their business
strategy. Thus, consistency in decision making could be equally as important as profit to
measure the managerial ability of players. In using business games in classroom settings,
we should stress that decisions be based on the chosen business strategy, in which case
the focus on profit maximization can decrease. In this paper we will show that the goals
of business games can be both profit maximizing and decision consistency.
Key words business game; decision consistency; performance measurement; profit;
strategic decision; teaching-learning system
In most business games, a decision maker is part of a group of a small number
of people and plays the role of manager in an enterprise. The number of
groups is between five and nine in most business games. Usually players make
decisions repeatedly every round for the period of play. Each round they
choose decision options either to maximize their profit over the periods of the
game or to avoid their company going into bankruptcy (on performance
measurement, see Teach 1990).
Our experiment was with gaming participants who were learning strategic
decision making based on that assumption. It was conducted using a qualitative
analysis based on Factor Analysis (Okuno and Yamada 1978). There is so
much numerical data, such as financial statements, available from other
gaming-simulations that we have a tendency to fall into the orientation of
1 College of Economics, Ryutsu Keizai University, Ryugasaki, Ibaraki, 301 Japan;
fhone 297-64-0001; facsimile 297-64-0011
Department of Business Administration and Communication, Bunri College, Sayama,
Saitama, 350-13 Japan; phone 429-52-1211; facsimile 429-54-7733
3Department of Industrial Information, Komatsu College, Komatsu, Ishikawa, 923
Japan; phone 761-44-3500; facsimile 761-44-3506
279
280
Ichikawa et at.
financial analysis. However, we used the financial data to analyze the decision
making by participants in gaming.
Introduction
The experiment consisted of four phases for each gaming run. In the first
phase, members of each team put down their managerial plans, including
the strategic objectives for the company. In the second phase, players chose
decision options and made managerial decisions for each period of the gaming
simulation. In the third phase, all the decisions of the game were interpreted in
qualitative statements using Factor Analysis (see, e.g., Takeuchi and Tsukuda
1990). Finally, we analyzed their decisions by comparing the managerial plans
with the corresponding qualitative statements.
We found that one of the eight teams had made their decisions through
the run of game in a manner completely consistent with the strategic plans
they had put down at the beginning of the run. In addition, the strategic
goals chosen by the players and their style of decision making were those
typically found in many Japanese enterprises. If a similar correlation between
the nationality of the gaming participants and the characteristics of typical
enterprises of their countries could be established, then strategies gathered
internationally through business games involving decision makers having
culturally different values would be useful for mutual understanding in international trade.
The Business Game
A business game session was organized for this research. A model for the game
was programmed from the Systems Dynamics approach and was translated into
a computer language. The game run lasted only 1 day due to scheduling
difficulties of the participants in the game. The participants were chosen from
college students taking subjects related to industrial management in order to
minimize differences in their knowledge level.
Table 1. Strategies of all companies
Team
Planned strategies (key words)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Good products, higher price, high quality oriented
Brand image oriented, relatively lower price, investing in public relations
and advertisements
Profit making, research and development, high quality products
Meeting consumer needs, lower price
High quality products, "big business is beautiful"
Better quality products, mass production, high welfare employment
High quality products, research and development, better production
management
Brand image oriented, first class products, "small business is beautiful"
Strategic Decision Making in Business Gaming
281
We organized eight groups of six or seven participants for the gaming
companies. Members of each group chose their management roles: president,
sales manager, production manager, financial manager, personnel manager,
planning manager, and consulting advisor.
At the beginning of the game, all the companies planned and wrote down
their business strategies. Table 1 shows the representative key words extracted
from all the strategies. From their key words, we can infer that the students
had an image similar to that of Japanese companies that are involved in the
production of high quality goods (see, e.g., Davidson 1984).
Decision Collection
The game run consisted of eight rounds, each simulating 1 year of real time.
For each round, role-players analyzed the results of previous decisions and
made decisions for the next round according to their strategic plans. The list of
the decision options was as follows: product price, advertising costs, sales
promotion costs, investment costs in manufacturing facilities, production
quantity, ordering quantity of raw materials, ordering point for raw materials,
R&D expense, QC expense, employment of sales personnel, employment of
factory workers, layoff of sales personnel layoff of factory workers, average
wages, loan, and loan repayments. All the data were numerical.
Strategy Analysis
Interpretation of Factor Scores
The game began with the same opening parameters and ended at the eighth
round. We ignored decisions for the first and final round in order to avoid the
influence of both preset parameters and rushed, end-of-game decisions. We
thus obtained multidimensional data for 8 teams x 18 decision options x 6
rounds. Since the hypothesis was that the decision making of each team would
be based on the strategic plan set up at the beginning of the game, and that a
relatively small number of latent factors would reflect this strategy (Ichikawa et
al. 1981), we employed the Normal Vairmax Method of Factor Anaylsis for
analyzing the actual strategies implied by the decision values.
Factor Analysis of the decision values produced between the second and the
seventh rounds generated the corresponding factor loading matrix for each
round. Table 2 shows the factor loading matrix of round 2 as an example. We
tried to interprete the factor loading matrix by making statements such as the
following:
-
Factor 1: Boosting production by taking out loans and depending on
borrowed capital; loan repayments causing financial difficulties
Factor 2: Increasing sales promotion with lower investment in manufacturing facilities and improving corporation identity in the market
282
Ichikawa et al.
Table 2. Factor loading matrix of Round 2
Factor no.
Factor values
Loan
Loan repayments
Production quantity
Employment of factory workers
Employment of sales personnel
QCexpense
Investment costs in
manufacturing facilities
Advertising costs
Sales promotion costs
Product price
R&D expense
Average wages
Ordering point of raw materials
Ordering quantity of raw materials
Layoff of factory workers
Layoff of sales personnel
4
5
1
2
3
5.7
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.92
0.81
0.69
-0.23
4.2
0.26
0.26
-0.01
-0.20
0.35
0.22
-0.89
1.7
-0.03
-0.03
-0.05
-0.11
-0.11
0.31
0.11
0.9
0.03
0.03
0.16
0.32
0.00
0.06
0.31
0.8
0.14
0.14
0.12
0.01
0.02
-0.06
0.13
0.26
-0.02
0.01
-0.09
0.28
0.49
-0.08
0.89
0.87
0.63
0.09
-0.12
-0.17
-0.42
(No
(No
0.27
0.17
-0.18
0.03
-0.36
0.30
-0.03
0.99
-0.Q1
0.94
-0.21
0.00
0.45
0.34
differences)
differences)
-0.05
-0.30
-0.59
-0.08
0.15
0.83
0.68
-
Factor 3: Producing high quality goods with higher investment in R&D and
-
Factor 4: Employing skilled personnel at high wage levels
Factor 5: Maintaining a narrow profit margin
QC
Table 3 shows the interpretations of all factor loading matrices for all of the
rounds. We can see that some strategies were in conflict with others. This could
have been caused by wrong decisions by the team.
Business Strategy Analysis
At this point we had statements interpreting all of the factors. The next step
was the calculation of factor scores for each team, based on the factor loading
matrices. In this paper, we will present the factor scores in a figure instead of a
score table. Figure 1 shows the factor scores for round 2. The numbered factors
correspond to the factors described above and to those in Table 2.
The interpreting factor statements and the factor scores for each team are
helpful in unveiling the latent strategies of each team. Some strategies found in
the game were as follows:
-
Team E: Investing capital aggressively in both production and sales
promotion; using borrowed capital
Team F: Lowering all expenses and selling lower priced goods
Team H: Influencing consumer preference with brand image
We could not make out clearly the operating strategies for the other teams.
Table 4 shows all the other strategies we found from the factor scores.
Strategic Decision Making in Business Gaming
Table 3. Interpretations of latent factors
Round no.
Factor no.
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
283
Interpreted factors (key words)
Production by borrowed capital, financial difficulties
Sales promotion, corporation identity in the market
High quality products, R&D, QC, brand image
High level wages
Lower priced products, narrow profit margin
High quality products, aggressive sales promotion
Mass production, lower priced products
No loans, capital independence
Investments in manufacturing facilities
High average wages
Small quantity production, sales promotion
Cost reduction, sales promotion
Higher pricing, sales promotion, good profits
Production oriented
Mass production
Sales oriented
Financial difficulties
Streamline management, sales promotion
Share oriented
Financial difficulties
Inventory adjustments
Higher pricing
Investments in manufacturing facilities
Minimum utilized production
Cost reduction
Investments in all costs
Minimum utilized sales promotion
Highest priced products
Higher pricing, mass production
Financial difficulties
Risky streamline management
Corporate identity, long-term planning
Big business oriented
Consistency of Decision Making
Now we were ready to compare the strategies put down at the beginning of
the game with those extracted from actual decision values using qualitative
analysis. First, we focused on Team H to study its consistency.
-
Round 2: Influencing consumer preference with brand image
Round 3: Producing high quality goods and selling them with intense sales
promotion
Round 4: Conducting an advertising campaign and increasing advertising
costs
Round 5: Selling high priced goods by sales promotion
Round 6: Strengthening the sales capability by reducing production costs
Round 7: Strengthening the production of high priced goods
284
Ichikawa et al.
Factor Score
..
..
+10
Team Code
\
+8
A:
..
..
B: _.-.C: -"-"-
\
+6
D: _ ... _ ...-
E: -- .•....••
\
F: _ .... _ ....
G: _ ..... _ ...
+4
H:---
+2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
1
2
3
4
5
Factor Number
Fig. 1. Factor scores of round 2
Because the key words of the strategies of Team H were "brand image
oriented," "first class products," and "small business is beautiful" (Table 1), it
can be seen that the decisions made between rounds 2 and 7 were'in accordance with the planned business objectives. Team H showed the best team
performance in strategic decision making. Next we focused on Team E to see if
it was as consistent as Team H.
-
Round 2: Investing borrowed capital in both production and sales
promotion
Round 3: Facing financial difficulties and selling goods at the lowest price
Round 4: Avoiding bankruptcy with streamline management
Round 5: Being in debt and repaying loan interests
Round 6: Reducing all costs and even selling goods at a sacrifice
Round 7: Going into bankruptcy intentionally
Because their key words were "high quality products" and "big business is
beautiful," we can see that their decisions were only slightly in accord with
their planned business strategy. Thus, Team E showed a not-so-good team
performance in pursuit of their goals in spite of heavy capital investment. It
was also found that some of the other teams' decision making was full of
inconsistencies. But, on the whole, each team was trying to make decisions
consistent with their own strategies.
Strategic Decision Making in Business Gaming
285
Table 4. Extracted strategies of decision making
Round no.
2
3
4
5
6
7
Team
Analysed strategies (key words)
E
Borrowed capital, investments in production and sales
Promotion
Lower pricing
Brand image
Mass production
Market share oriented
Financial difficulties, lowest pricing
High quality products, sales promotion
Financial difficulties
Highly utilized production
Streamline management
Advertisement oriented
Inventory adjustments, lower utilized production
In debt, loan repayments
Higher pricing, sales promotion
Investments in production
Sacrifice sales
Sales promotion, lowering costs
Expanding production facilities
Bankruptcy
High priced products
F
H
B
D
E
H
C
D
E
H
C
E
H
C
E
H
B
E
H
This sort of evaluation of the decision-making process in business gaming
should be given more emphasis in the future. We have here a new performance
measurement tool for financial statements and management analysis reports.
Conclusions
Hitherto, whenever we use business gaming as a teaching learning system, we
have faced difficulty in achieving our educational objectives (Kurozawa 1990).
Players, usually college students, have a propensity towards seeking a big profit
at the end of the game. The reason that bankruptcy is of such vital concern to
all players is simply because going bankrupt means losing everything in both
the game (the company) and the business course (the grade). The main objective should not be gambling, but rather rational decision making. Needless to
say, there are many procedures and instructions to the students to help them
avoid such profit-only-oriented decisions.
The experiment reported here and its qualitative analysis of strategies has
shown that players can make strategic decisions without ending in bankruptcy.
Gaming directors, usually professors, can make objective evaluations of the
performance of each team by looking at their decision consistency as well as
their class attitudes. Also, students themselves can easily understand the results
of their own decision making because they are explained, not in figures, but
with understandable statements.
286
Ichikawa et al.
In the future, we intend to gather strategic key words found through Factor
Analysis to organize a database. This will require a support system for the
interpretation of factor scores produced by a Factor Analysis program. A
powerful personal computer having multitasking capability will be used to
integrate simulation models and evaluation tools (Ichikawa 1984). Currently,
manual interpretation would be a time-consuming task for gaming directors.
References
Davidson WH (1984) The amazing race. Wiley, New York
Ichikawa A (1984) A personal-computer-based business game and its uses (in
Japanese). Operations Research (Japan) 29(2):96-104
Ichikawa A, Mukuda M, Inaba H, Yokoyama K (1981) On latent policies in a business gaming simulation and its educational uses (in Japanese) Research Report of
Kogakuin University 51:49-60
Kurozawa T (1990) A survey of gaming/simulation for management education in 40
industrial engineering departments (in Japanese). Simulation and Gaming (Japan)
1(1):89-93
Okuno T, Yamada B (1978) Management analysis in the information (in Japanese).
Tokyo University Press, Tokyo
Takeuchi K, Tsukuda Y (1990) Managerial statistics (in Japanese). Yuhikaku, Tokyo
Teach RD (1990) Profits: The false prophet in business gaming. Simulation & Gaming:
An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research 21(1):12-26
Arata Ichikawa is an Associate Professor at Ryutsu Keizai University. He
was one of the organizers of the Japan Association of Simulation and
Gaming, 1989, and served as financial chair of ISAGA '91. His research
interests in simulation and gaming originated from participation in an
US-J apan political gaming/simulation conducted by the East-West Center,
University of Hawaii in 1973. He was a Fulbright visiting professor at
the Systems Science Department, University of Southern California from
1983-4, doing research on decision-support systems and public administration and environment gaming systems. He was a member of the research
promotion committee for the development of a small business gaming
simulation under the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Japan,
1991.
Minoru Mukuda is an Associate Professor at Bunri College. His primary
research interest is in the use of network technologies, particulary intelligent
network gaming environments. He has developed many personal-computerbased gaming simulations.
Hideo Inaba is an Associate Professor at Komatsu College. His research
interest focuses generally on management science, particularly price modelling. He has done empirical research on the decision-making procedures of
small businesses.
Management Games in the International
Business Classroom
Ronald D. Klein l
Abstract. Management games have been a cornerstone in the Business Policy course for
two decades and have spread to the areas of marketing and finance. They have not
made the same impact as a pedagogy tool in international business (IB) courses, where
the case study remains the primary experiential learning tool. One of the reasons IB is
slow to adopt the business simulation game may be due to their perceived lack of
validity as a teaching tool, that is, their inability to address the critical issues of
international business. This paper attempts to assess their suitability for the classroom
by examining the degree to which the games address relevant international business
issues. If they are found to have an acceptable degree of validity, some of the reluctance
to use the games may be alleviated.
Key words effectiveness; evaluation; experiential learning; gaming; international business; pedagogy; review; simulation
Simulation/games have been heavily adopted for use in policy, marketing, and
finance courses by American business schools. They also playa major role in
executive training programs. The majority of these games are domestic business simulation/games. However, some of these games have been internationalized to broaden student exposure to international business (IE)
concepts, but relatively few of these games have been adopted for use in IE
courses.
There may be several reasons for their lack of popularity. One reason is that
they are not well known to IE faculties. In reviewing the literature, references
to specific games are very few. Even teachers who have adopted a given
simulation/game generally have little knowledge of the games available beyond
the one being used. Interviews with the IE game authors themselves disclosed
that they were generally unfamiliar with other IE games. This is probably due
to the dearth of games available. Another reason is that IE faculties have not
been interested in using this type of experiential tool; the case study has been
the mainstay in the IE classroom for many years. Finally, and perhaps most
I Department of Business Administration, Abbott Turner School of Business, Columbus
College, Columbus, GA US; phone 404-568-2284 (w); facsimile 404-568-2040
287
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Klein
important for those who are familiar with simulation/games, there may be a
reluctance to adopt them because they are not regarded as effective learning
tools.
This paper addresses the reluctance to use these IE tools in the classroom. It
attempts to provide the reader with a list of games available, and reviews their
suitability, potential, and effectiveness as learning tools. Hopefully, this review
will be helpful to IE faculties who are interested in adopting a game for
classroom use. The games selected for review are broad-based management
games such as those used at the business policy level. Games which focus on
more specific areas of interest such as foreign exchange or negotiation simulations were not included.
Methodology
The games listed below were the only high-level, corporate management games
devoted to the IE environment which were found in a literature search and in
interviews with game authors. The games vary in terms of sophistication,
complexity, and time requirements, representing a spectrum from easy to
difficult that will fit most academic programs.
Business Strategy Game (BSG)
International Operations (INTOP)
Multinational Management Game (MMG)
Thunderbird International Management Simulation Game (TIMS)
World Wide Simulation Exercise (WISE)
Three international business faculties were asked to develop a set of critical
issues which could be used to assess the face validity of the candidate games.
The critical issues were developed from four of the five leading Principles of
International Business textbooks. The game decision inputs and the report
Table 1. International business simulation overview
INTOP
TIMS
MMG
Number of products
Product type
Home office
Active subsidiaries
Expansion options
Minimum decisions
Maximum decisions
Manual length (pp)
Teams per industry
Worksheets
Support programs
First decision time (h)
gen, generic; spec, specific
2
1
gen
L'stein
spec
USA
0
3
24
100
55
4-25
no
gen
8-12
WISE
BSG
1
2
2
gen
USA
gen
USA
spec
USA/Europe
9
3
3
24
24
81
8
3
3
30
40
47
7
2
4
42
70
81
3-16
yes
gen
yes
gen
no
yes
yes
gen
12-16
8
8
0
16
6
200+
118
6
Management Games in the Business Classroom
289
outputs were then examined by the same group in terms of critical IB issues
and attempts were made to determine how many and how well these issues are
addressed by each game.
All of the information presented here comes from the student user manuals
which provide background data, decision forms, report forms, and decision
procedures, and from the authors who were interviewed via telephone and who
provided answers to specific questions that were not addressed by the manuals.
Results
Table 1 shows the major parameters of each of the games. It describes the
types and numbers of products, the starting position, expansion options, and
number of decisions required. The minimum and maximum number of decisions quoted below are not exact figures. Exact figures would depend on the
number of products produced, the number of markets selected, or other
decisions. The numbers given are simply reasonable limits.
In general, WISE has two consumer products. INTOP has two grades of
each product, which are unspecified medium-sized appliances. The TIMS
product is a single 4-fe refrigerator. MMG has a consumer and an industrial
product. The BSG's product is footwear. Those games which start with active
subsidiaries may have plants, sales offices, or corporate shells in place in
foreign locations. This accounts for the large number of initial decisions
required. The type of foreign operation for MMG, INTOP, and BSG is a
manufacturing facility. Other options are available with TIMS and WISE. The
decision times are estimates based on three- or four-person teams.
Other unique attributes should be pointed out. WISE has no student worksheets to aid in decision making, but does have two supplementary computer
programs to aid in predicting cost and demand. Other authors indicated that
future revisions of their games would also have decision-support programs. The
worksheets for MMG are especially easy to use.
Critical Issue Review
Table 2 is a list of critical issues and a game rating for each of the candidates by
issue. The scale used is from 0 to 3, where zero indicates that the issue is not
addressed at all and a three indicates that the issue is heavily addressed. Note
that the games vary considerable in this respect providing an opportunity for
adopters to select games which match a unique set of needs.
Table 2 shows that TIMS rates very high in IB attributes; it offers opportunity to operate behind tariff walls, includes political unrest, has a degree of
nationalism built into its marketing functions, and uses a controlled random
function for inflation, economic index, political unrest, and foreign exchange
rates. WISE permits inter-company actions such as contracting, loans, and
collusion; it is very well suited to executive training because of the decision-
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Klein
Table 2. Critical issue comparison
INTOP
Comparative advantage
Direct foreign investment
Differential inflation
Tariff effects
Socio-cultural forces
Technology transfer
Transfer pricing
Consolidated operations
Imperfect competition
Nationalism
Exchange gains/losses
Hedging
Exchange rates
Foreign sourcing
Taxes
License agreements
Political stability
Totals
1
3
3
2
2
0
2
2
TlMS
MMG
WISE
BSG
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
3
3
0
0
2
0
2
3
3
3
1
1
1
2
2
0
1
1
2
0
3
3
25
3
1
2
1
1
0
3
3
3
0
3
0
0
0
3
1
0
2
2
2
2
3
2
0
0
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
0
0
38
22
29
17
3
3
2
0
3
support programs. INTOP also permits collusion and team interchange; teams
are even allowed to sell factories to each other. MMG and BSG are the
"smallest" of the simulations. MMG is easily the most popular with more than
100 adoptions; it is easy to use in the classroom both for the instructor and
the student. The game is currently being used as a competitive vehicle for
an annual national competition among business schools hosted by Georgia
Southern. BSG is the newest of the games.
Narrative Game Review
The following section provides the reader with a detailed description of each of
the simulations.
BSG allows players to build three additional factories in its basic leisure
footwear industry-one in Texas and one each in Asia and Europe. Different
quality grades are available for the firm's two products and the simulation's
overall rate of economic activity is tied to the Standard and Poor 500 Index.
Exchange rates for deutsche marks and yen against the US dollar are obtained
from the Wall Street Journal.
Using Liechtenstein as its corporate headquarters for tax haven benefits,
INTOP allows companies to operate in the United States, Brazil, and the Ee.
These operations may be accomplished through product exportation, local
production, or the cross-licensing of a company's products. While no decisionsupport tools are provided in the game's manual, the authors encourage
Management Games in the Business Classroom
291
players to create spreadsheet programs to simplify decision making. The game
is rich, however, in other ancillary materials: the management consulting firm
of Arthur DeBig is available for special services, the Gazette of the fictitious
World Federation of Appliance Manufacturers can provide industry gossip and
updated information.
MMG is also a two-product game, which allows operations in two foreign
areas plus the United States. Each decision round encompasses a year's worth
of company activities and the real world's exchange rates for ringgits and
deutsche marks are employed for its geographic operations in Malaysia/Asia
and Germany/Europe, respectively. The player manual is especially rich in
describing and employing real-world data to delineate the characteristics of
each market area available in the simulation.
TIMS allows the production and/or sales of a small, apartment-sized refrigerator in 16 countries in the Western world and the Far East. The decision
period is in quarters and decision-making operations are described very
thoroughly in the Manager Manual. Computer-based, decision-support materials provide production costs, cash flow projections, sales forecasts by country,
and so on.
WISE is a simulation in which two generic products can be sold or manufactured in the United States, and one country each within the EC and South
America. Companies can sell their products to each other within the simulation
on a quarterly basis and these goods can be shipped by either air or surface
transport. Decision-support spreadsheets are available for forecasting demand
for products by country as well as forecasting the company's sales value and for
costing out other sourcing options.
Discussion
As described above, the games differ significantly in their degree of complexity
and difficulty. A simple sum of the Table 2 columns indicates the relative
degree to which critical issues are addressed and is a subjective measure of
their complexity and difficutly. The values range from 17 to 38. The lower level
games would be suitable for undergraduate courses. The higher level games
would be more suitable for graduate courses or executive training programs.
In all of the games, the instructor may control several variables. The play of
the game can be controlled to minimize the carryover among students from
term to term by adjusting the product demand function and economic index.
MBG and TIMS grade student performance and the grade weights may be
adjusted so that market share may be very important during one semester or
quarter and net profit be very important the next term. The number and types
of decisions may be varied in some games by limiting students to specific
options. Other options for control include changing inflation rates, tariffs, or
taxes. INTOP is exceedingly flexible in that every game parameter may be set
by the instructor.
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Klein
Conclusions
The games in general address a large number of critical issues gIvmg the
student good exposure to IE concepts. This exposure should allay some of the
misgivings potential users have in adopting such simulations for classroom use.
Although there is no consensus that games teach concepts, there exists a large
measure of face validity which supports such a theory. In addition, the games
provide a stimulating and competitive environment for learning.
The business simulations reviewed here represent several levels of difficulty.
Potential adoptees may wish to consider the amount of class time available
especially at the beginning of the term when choosing a particular game. The
other major consideration is the level of the course in which a particular game
will be used. The more difficult games are definitely suited to the graduate
level or at the least senior level of an IE undergraduate program.
Acknowledgements
The author thanks Robert A. Fleck Jr. of the Abbott Turner School of
Business, Columbus College, and Joseph Wolfe of the College of Business
Administration, University of Tulsa for their help in identifying critical issues
and assessing their contributions to the selected simulations.
References
Ball DA, McCulloch Jr. WH (1988) International business: Introduction and essentials.
Plano, TX
Czinkota MR (1988) International business. Drydep, New York
Daniels JD, Radebaugh LH (1989) International business: Environment and operations. Addison-Wesely, Reading, MA
Edge AB, Keys B, Remus W (1991) Multimanagement management game: Student's
manual. Business Publications, Dallas, TX
Grosse R, Kujawa D (1988) International business: Theory and managerial applications. Irwin, Homewood, IL
Hoskins WR (1989) The Thunderbird international management simulation. Manager
manual. American graduate school of business. Thunderbird Software, Phoenix, AR
Ingo W, Murray T (1988) Handbook of international business. Wiley, New York
Thompson AA, Steppenbeck BJ (1990) The business strategy game: A global industry
simulation. Homewood, IL
Thorelli HB, Graves RL (1989) INTOP international operations simulation: Player's
manual. The Free Press, MacMillan, New York
WISE: World wide simulation exercise for management development. Barker, Temple,
Sloan (1988) Lexington, MA (33 Hayden Street, Lexington, Massachusetts)
Ronald D. Klein is a professor of management at Columbus College and is
currently serving as interim dean of the Abbott Turner School of Business.
He served as a research project manager and consultant for 18 years with
the University of Michigan and Stanford Research Institutes, specializing
Management Games in the Business Classroom
293
in experimental design and statistical analysis. Since entering academia,
his research interests have focused on business simulations and classroom
pedagogy. Dr. Klein has published over 40 articles. He received his doctorate in International Business and MBA from Georgia State University.
Business and Engineering Gaming in
the Ukraine
Victor 1. Rybalskil
Abstract. A number of business simulations have been developed at the Civil Engineering Institute in Kiev. The games are described and discussed in terms of typical
situations in the Ukraine and neighboring republics. A trilogy of games, PRESIDENT
I, II and III, allows participants to run a country-its economy, its politics, and its
social order. Two other games, SPUSK and KROSS deal with aspects of complex
construction projects, such as control. Also mentioned is the use of these games in the
Ukraine and beyond.
Key words business simulation; construction projects; economics; engineering; management; politics; social order
Business games form an integral part of a wide class of methods used for active
training in higher educational establishments and technical institutes. At the
same time, business games can be used not only for training processes, but also
for research, the development of innovation, the solving of planning or production problems, and for the certification of staff.
A number of management games have been developed at the Kiev Civil
Engineering Institute. These games have been widely used in recent years
for training engineers, working out national business solutions, designing
automated systems, and training managers and engineers in the use of effective
management methods. This paper describes some of these simulations.
PRESID ENT-I (Economics)
In PRESIDENT-I, the aim of each partIcIpant is to take on the role of
president, who then must develop the internal economy of a country as well as
establish trade and diplomatic contacts with neighboring countries. Responsibilities also include the development of certain managerial skills, such as
1 Civil Engineering Institute, Vozdukhoflotsky pro 31, Kiev-37, Ukraine; phones 276-5330, 276-40-25, 272-94-98, 272-95-95, 272-95-00; telex 131280 SACC SU
294
Business and Engineering Gaming in the Ukraine
295
leadership ability, resourcefulness, creative conflict resolution, compassion,
and cooperation rather than confrontation. Characteristically, the president
must possess good decision-making skills and the ability to be flexible in order
to deal effectively with unexpected events such as inflation, labor disputes,
work stoppages, and the threat of war.
The basic version of the game allows four participants, each acting as a
president of one of four countries. The presidents take positions around the
common game field-a geographical map. The aim of each participant is to
gain as many special money units as possible. These money units are used to
evaluate the total winnings gained by the participants at the end of the game.
Before the game starts, each president is advanced a sum of money which is
to be returned at the end of the game. The president can use this money for
the following purposes:
-
Production of resources in his own country
Purchase and shipping costs of foreign goods and resources
Purchase of various modes of transportation
Construction of additional manufacturing plants
Construction of tourist hotels
The presidents start the game by initiating negotiations leading to trade
agreements. The agreements reflect fixed dates for the delivery of goods and
products at agreed prices, and penalties in case of delivery delays. Consideration should be given to the modes available for transporting the imported
resources. In addition, negotiations can be initiated, setting up various business
ventures for the future.
In each round, the president draws a card from the "chance situations" deck.
The card may denote such events as an accident in one of the plants, an
influenza epidemic, a major repair of a tourist hotel, a natural disaster, or a
labor strike. Another card deck is used to randomly introduce other items,
such as price increases, availability of advanced technology and equipment,
refurbishing particular building sites, and any inclement weather that would
disrupt deliveries.
Presidents make their own decisions or collaborate with each other if necessary. Game parameters may be set up that would eliminate disaster scenarios,
require a penalty payment for a delay in product delivery, operate import and
export goods, set up a discretionary clause that would cancel agreements in
force (with corresponding losses), or make available the purchase of resources
from other suppliers at lower prices. When new business projects are forecast,
it becomes possible to investigate how cost-effective the refurbishing of existing
structures would be as opposed to building new ones. If conflict is anticipated,
the purchase of merchant and military ships and aircraft is authorized. These
ships and aircraft would act as deterrents in the event of harbor blockades or
any other disruption that might cause a discordant note in the agreements.
When a country experiences deficit spending, it may attempt to resolve the
situation by one of two avenues: (1) negotiate an "aid package" from another
country, with terms amenable to both parties, or (2) utilize a loan from the
296
Rybalsk
International Bank at a rather high interest rate. If the country defaults on
the loan, then the lender will assume ownership of all goods and property
(transportation means, buildings, etc.) of the insolvent country. In order to
recoup the loss, the lender will "sell off" all goods and property thereby
incurring a profit.
The game is considered to be over when one of the countries becomes
bankrupt, or the predetermined number of rounds has been exhausted. The
winner is determined by the amount of money accrued. In so doing, the money
spent on construction of buildings and projects and the purchase of transportation (except that for military purposes) are all taken into account.
Upon completion of the game, the participants, using critical analysis,
independently assess the outcome and the methods used in achieving the
results. This allows performance-based rating of the various managerial skills
and abilities exhibited by each participant during the game, such as cooperation, resourcefulness, sympathy, and so on.
PRESIDENT-II (Politics)
This version of the game concentrates on political dimensions. It is currently
under development and will run on a personal computer.
PRESIDENT-III (Law and Order)
In contrast to PRESIDENT-I (Economics) and -II (Politics), this version of the
game pays special attention to the problems of law and order. In PRESIDENTIII, each participant assumes the role of a world leader (president) of an
imaginary state. The president has to see to the business of running the country
and to ensure that it continues to evolve successfully as a nation. The president
must combine all this with the country's global responsibility toward interacting
with other nations. In addition, the president must preserve internal harmony
by championing the cause of law and order. This may be done by trying to
eliminate smuggling and illegal drug trading, in addition to preventing crime in
other areas, reducing the threat of terrorism, attending to problems of emigration and immigration, responding in a timely fashion to the threat of strikes,
mediating conflicts between nations, and dealing with the desires of regions
whose goal is to achieve autonomy.
Game participants, the presidents, take their places on four sides of a table
where the game field is situated. In the course of playing the game, none of the
presidents should be privy to the decisions of the other presidents, nor the
amounts of their monetary holdings. The developmental level of each state is
evaluated on the basis of its respective position on a state matrix. The implication being that, during the game process, certain indicators will be identified,
such as the average human life span, mortality rate of children, services offered
to the population, and the moral condition of the society. As the game pro-
Business and Engineering Gaming in the Ukraine
297
gresses, any level on the state matrix can be reached-depending largely
on the president's actions. The lower portion of this matrix indicates that
the country is in a state of depression, and the upper that it is thriving
economically.
In the final analysis, each president attempts to collect as much game
money as possible. This amounUs used to evaluate the total score when all
game rounds are completed. At the same time, an evaluation is made of the
country's rate of growth while under each president's regime. The winnings
depend both on a level achieved on the state matrix and on a strategy chosen
by the president during each round. In addition, there exists some specified
cases of adding on gains or fines regardless of the state matrix. Actions taken
by presidents during each round consist primarily of showing colored cards:
-
A red card indicates intense activities
A green card symbolizes moderate activities and the allocation of time for
leisure and entertainment
A black card indicates drawing excessive, illegal income
A yellow card symbolizes passivity
After the presidents have shown their strategies (cards), the supervisor
informs them about their gains, and casts the die separately for each country.
The die's sides characterize the total activities of the population of a given
country. After each round or once after several rounds, presidents may distribute gains among the following budget categories: defense, law and order,
social problems, and customs concerns.
Next, each president obtains (through the process of random selection)
information garnered from a roulette wheel or a deck of cards. The information may take the form of a single card and focus on accidental events. These
may include acts of smuggling, drug trafficking, or illegal entry or exit of
persons. Also possible are strikes in parts of the country or throughout the
country, conflicts between nations in the regions with mixed populations and
border disputes between neighboring states. In addition, acts of international
terrorism are possible, including seizure of the presidents as hostages, as well
as declarations of independence by regions, crime increases, and so on.
Each president then has to respond to a specific situation. Thus, the probability of unimpeded importation of drugs, illegal emigration, and immigration
are less likely with a sufficiently large pool of funds allocated to border services
and customs agencies. If such events did take place, the president would bear
losses. Strikes occur less frequently if the mark approaches the prosperity area.
Since the risk of such an event still exists, one form of insurance may be to
institute funding for social problems. Concerning conflicts between nations
or outbreaks of crime, the chances for such incidents increase as the mark
approaches the depression area. The president may introduce a state of
emergency, either throughout the country or within a region. For this purpose, however, an irrevocable loss to a large law-and-order fund is required.
Collisions between different nations over disputed territories may result in a
military conflict. In order not to suffer from defeat in such a conflict, a
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Rybalsk
considerable defense fund is required. In the event of a region leaving the
state, the president may either agree under certain conditions to a compromise,
but subsequently lose a part of the gain in all the following rounds, or disagree
and introduce the state of emergency, which would cause considerable loss of
law and order and defense funds. Also, to be considered is a marked decrease
in the position on the state matrix. The president may also make demands of
other countries, to conclude various treaties with these countries (e.g., on
mutual assistance, nonaggression, and cooperation in the control of illegal drug
trafficking) .
The game is considered over when one of the countries reaches the upper or
lower limits on the state matrix, or after completion of a specified number of
rounds. The winner is decided by the amount of the presidential fund accrued
and by the level attained by the country on the state matrix.
Upon completion of the game, the participants analyze their strategies
and actions, taking into account both their personal winnings and the levels
achieved on the state matrices of their countries. It is important to evaluate the
state of a country as it pertains to the leadership of a president. This analysis
may serve as the basis for discussing such aspects as competence, democracy,
authoritativeness, resourcefulness, responsiveness, ability to cooperate with
neighbors, and in particular the tendency to compete or confront. In the course
of such discussion, special attention is paid to the efficiency of the presidents'
steps with respect to law and order problems.
SPUSK and its Derivatives
In the business game SPUSK, 25-30 people collectively ensure the construction of a large-scale industrial complex within a minimum time frame. A final
result of the joint efforts of various construction organizations and the Kiev
Engineering and Construction Institute was a transformation of the SPUSK
business game into a special business game called OPTIMUM (Optimization of
the Training Process-Game Modelling of the Unit Method), using unit network
models. This is comparable to the systems developed for large and complicated
construction projects.
Another direction in modernizing the business game SPUSK has appeared as
a result of running it with a number of construction managers in Moscow. It
was developed into the game for GLAVMOSSTROY, which involved a control
system for the construction of a series of particularly important and complex
projects using network models. After mastering the methods and the documentation used in the process of the game SPUSK, the users made substantial
alterations to the project for future use, the contents of the input and output
data, and the forms and routes of the information flow. Further modifications
took into account control mechanisms on construction sites (e.g., the services
of "external" organizations which are suppliers of structures and equipment).
This version became known as KROSS (Controlling and Regulating the Supply
and Condition of Construction).
Business and Engineering Gaming in the Ukraine
299
Conclusion
Over 2,000 people from 300 educational institutions, scientific research
institutes, and construction organizations have now (July 1991) been trained in
the use of business and management games. The above games are being used
successfully in most of the 300 institutes and organizations.
Victor Rybalski-President of EESAGA (Eastern European Simulation
And Gaming Association) works at the Kiev Civil Engineering Institute. In
September he was one of the organizers of the 18th International Seminar
on Gaming-Simulation in Education and Scientific Research, held in
September, 1991, with support from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences.
Stock Market Simulation
Iva Wenzler! and Marija Palic2
Abstract. Eastern European countries are undergoing a transition from centrally controlled societies to market-oriented democracies. The securities exchange and how
it functions much be understood as part of this transition. The STOCK MARKET
SIMULATION (SMS) is an attempt to help this process. Participants in the simulation
take roles of investors (shareholders), house brokers, and floor brokers. They engage in
different activities, and receive, process, and send different types of information, all
with the purpose of fulfilling their tasks and achieving their investment objectives.
Through its extensive application, the SMS has proved to be a powerful tool to help
participants understand the basic principles of a stock market and its functions.
Key words Eastern Europe; experiential learning; gaming/simulation; market
economy; stock market
Problem Background
Through the end of the 1980s and on into the early 1990s there have been
tremendous changes in the Eastern European business environments. Whereas
in the past, different sectors of the economy were mostly government controlled and state owned, an increasing number of companies are now attempting to undergo the process of privatization. One of the major paths to present
ownership of these companies is through issuing securities, which are then
distributed or sold on the securities exchange market.
In several Eastern European countries, after close to 5 decades, the stock
markets are being reopened to accommodate this new need. Not only were
the markets closed for the last 5 decades, but their entire economies were
centralized. As a result of these events, an enormous gap was created in the
knowledge that is needed to function within a market-oriented versus a
centrally planned economy.
1 Multilogue International, Inc., 329 Lake Park Lane, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48103, US;
phone 313-663-3690, fax 313-663-3623
2 Institute for Development and International Relations, Ulica 8 maja 82, 41000 Zagreb,
Yugoslavia; phone 41-444-522
300
Stock Market Simulation
301
More pointedly, there is a general lack of knowledge and understanding of
what a stock market is and how it functions. As an increasing number of
companies within Eastern Europe become privatized and are issuing securities
to be traded on the market, greater numbers of people will be required to have
an adequate understanding and know~edg
of how to function on the securities
exchange markets, and will need to acquire an understanding of the new
conditions in an effective way.
In its effort to respond to this challenge, the Zagreb Business School commissioned the Stock Market Simulation (SMS), an experiential learning tool
which can achieve the following objectives:
-
Provide participants with the basic knowledge and understanding of a stock
market and its functioning.
Provide participants with the opportunity to experience the dynamics of
participating in stock market activities.
Provide educators with a simulated stock market environment through
which participants' understanding of the stock market issues and their
potential performance on a real stock market can be tested.
Schematic Presentation of the Problem
As part of SMS design process, a large problem environment schematic was
developed. This was an attempt to create a visual presentation of the securities
exchange problem environment, on which this exercise focuses. Once developed, the schematic was used as a basis for deciding which issues were important enough to be represented in the final exercise. A simplified version of this
schematic is presented in Figure 1.
Why Gaming/Simulation?
The decision by the Zagreb Business School to use a gaming/simulation
exercise as a tool for educating people on how to function within the newly
opened stock markets was primarily based on the understanding that gaming/
simulations provide a safe environment for learning, and are an efficient and
effective approach to experiential learning. Lectures alone were perceived as
unable to provide the participants with a full understanding of a stock market
and its functioning, and in providing them with the opportunity of experiencing
the dynamics of participating in stock market activities.
Context of Use
The primary intent is for the simulation to be used as part of a seminar on the
issues of securities exchange (stock market) activities. The seminar 'contains
five modules of about 4 h each. Two of the modules are lectures and presenta-
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Wenzler and Polic
Stock Tables
OTCTabies
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tions focusing on the issues that will be experienced during the simulation run.
The simulation alone lasts 12-15 h and thus occupies the remaining three
modules. The number of participants can vary, with a minimum of 30 and a
maximum of 70.
Sequence of Activities
The SMS is composed of two distinct phases. Phase I activities include trading
on the open market, trading on the OTe market, margin trading, and short
selling. Phase II includes listed options, index options, and stock index futures.
In order not to overwhelm the participants with the full complexity of the SMS
at the outset, and also to let participants gradually acquire new knowledge, the
Stock Market Simulation
303
simulation starts with only the open market trading activities, while other
activities are added in later cycles of the run.
Each phase of the SMS consists of three modules, each one being five cycles
long, with the activities of each cycle divided into two broad stages. The first
stage represents the time when the securities exchange floor is closed; the
second stage represents the time when it is open. All cycles are 45-60 min in
length and consist of the same steps of play. Each step has a specific purpose
designed to achieve the objectives of the cycle, as well as the objectives of the
whole run.
Following the last cycle played, an extensive debriefing session takes place.
During the debriefing the participants discuss, analyze, and evaluate their
experiences. The role of the facilitator is to pull the various perspectives into a
coherent package, placing an emphasis on the learning that took place during
the simulation.
Roles
In the SMS there are two broad groups of roles. One group of roles is performed by participants in the simulation run (gamed roles). The second group
of roles are introduced to the run either through the facilitators' activities or
through different written materials during the run (simulated roles).
The gamed roles in the SMS are investors, house brokers, and floor brokers.
Investors are the owners of securities issued by different companies and institutions and are expected to buy and/or sell securities through their brokerage
houses, depending on their investment objectives. House brokers are employees of several brokerage houses present on the market. Their primary role
is to work with investors, helping them to sell and/or buy securities. Brokerage
houses are also participating on the aTe market as investors. The primary role
of the floor brokers is to work on the securities exchange floor, executing buy
and sell orders received from investors through their brokerage houses. They
execute the orders by dealing with floor brokers who represent other brokerage
houses.
The simulated roles are reporter, simulated investor, and companies and
institutions whose securities are on the market. Reporters are securities
exchange officers and are played by facilitators. Their role is to record all deals
that happen on the floor of the exchange, make sure that these deals are
properly executed, and record any price changes.
The simulated investor role is also played by one of the facilitators. The
primary role of the simulated investor is to load the simulation with a constant flow of different sell and buy orders distributed among all brokerage
houses, thus creating the necessary dynamics for the activities in the brokerage
houses as well as on the floor of the exchange. Through repetitive loading and
cycle-specific interventions on the market, the simulated investor controls
the securities exchange market. This ensures that the exercise behaves as
realistically as possible, and thus prevents some wild and unrealistic market
fluctuations from taking place.
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Fig. 2. Order/confirmation form
The third category of simulated roles is the companies and institutions whose
securities are available on the market. They are selected and designed to cover
a wide spectrum of characteristics which real companies on the real securities
exchange market would have. They are simulated through information provided in the written materials introduced during the run.
Accounting System
The accounting system in the SMS is a set of procedures incorporated directly
into the exercise with the purpose of recording, processing, and providing
feedback on participants' decisions that take place during the run. The major
elements of the accounting system are information input, accounting of transactions, accounting of finances, and information output, all of them supported
by specially designed forms and software.
Information input consists of the newspaper, cycle reports, and rumors. The
newspaper is issued each cycle and covers events ranging from the general state
of the economy to those about specific companies and institutions present on
the market. Another source of information is the cycle reports (financial
reports) for the companies and institutions on the market. Rumors contain
information about an event or expected action which, if true, could significantly effect the demand and supply of particular securities on the market.
Another element of the accounting system involves transactions. Several
different forms and software packages are used for that purpose. The order/
confirmation forms are used for ordering and confirming transactions. There
are several different types of these forms depending on the type of transaction.
A sample order/confirmation form is presented in Figure 2. The third element
of the accounting system deals with finances, such as payments for executed
transactions, dividends for the securities owned, and interest on the money
deposited into a bank.
Stock Market Simulation
305
Stock, bond, and OTe Tables comprise information outputs of the activities
on the market, providing participants with such items as latest price, opening
price, quantity of securities traded, dividends for the cycle, and price/earnings
ratio for each security on the market.
Results and Benefits
Since its development, the simulation has been run numerous times. The
experiences from these runs have shown this simulation to be successful in
providing participants with the basic knowledge and understanding of a stock
market and its functions. During debriefing sessions, the participants emphasized that the simulation made the information presented through the lectures
much more understandable and vivid. The results and comments following
the runs have also shown that the simulation provided the participants with
the opportunity to experience the dynamics of participating in stock market
activities.
The power of the simulation became evident in one of the first runs of the
exercise. During the first cycle, floor brokers were trading while sitting on the
chairs they brought with them to the floor of the exchange. In the second cycle
they did not sit on the chairs any more. In the third cycle they pushed the
chairs aside, moved around vigorously and started to develop a system of
symbols between themselves and their house brokers. All of this happened
without a single hint from the facilitators. Learning about some of the most
important dynamics of the securities exchange floor happened in less than 3 h.
Participants were forced to make decisions in a very short time and without
enough information. This experience provided them with the confidence that
they are, despite all the pressures, able to function in an imperfect environment. As a result of the experiences in Eastern Europe, development of a third
and fourth phase is under way. These phases will expand the activities in which
participants engage by incorporating trading with gold, foreign currency, and
futures.
Iva Wenzler was born in Zagreb in 1955. His undergraduate degree is from
the Faculty of Architecture at the University of Zagreb, and he worked as a
construction and project manager until moving to the United States in 1984.
He has a master's in urban planning, a certificate in gaming/simulation, and a
doctorate in architecture, all from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.
He lives in Ann Arbor and works as a research scientist at the University of
Michigan, as well as a senior associate at Multilogue International, Inc. At
both places his primary activity is designing policy exercises and large scale
gaming/simulation exercises for clients all over the world.
Marijo Polic was born in Zagreb in 1944. He graduated from the Faculty of
Economics at the University of Zagreb, and since then he has been working
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Wenzler and Polic
at the Institute for Development and International Relations, which was
formerly known as the Institute for Developing Countries. He is primarily
working on the issues of development economics, technological development and transfer of technology, and international finance. For the
last few years he has been working on implementing gaming/simulation
methodology, as well as other experiential learning methods, in the areas of
economics and business management.
U sing Spreadsheets for Complex Business
Simulations
Fernando E. Arellano 1 and Richard D. lohnson 2
Abstract. Electronic spreadsheets are used as learning tools in business courses. As
instructors have become more familiar with spreadsheets, they have used them increasingly to achieve their teaching objectives. Spreadsheet templates are also being used as
business-simulation complements to aid in decision making by participants. The objective of this paper is to promote the development of business simulations using electronic
spreadsheets as a programming language. A brief description of the parts of a Lotusbased simulation will be given, along with a summary of advantages and limitations
found in the development of a complex business simulation.
Key words business games; computer modeling; electronic spreadsheets; simulation
design; simulation/gaming; training
Business instructors are increasingly using electronic spreadsheets as a teaching
aid for problem solving and case analysis. Textbooks often come with spreadsheet templates as supplements offering students enhanced learning. With
additional spreadsheet experience, business instructors are also developing
class materials of their own. Businese students are becoming more familiar
with the use of electronic spreadsheets as an analytical tool.
Electronic spreadsheet capabilities are also being improved with the release
of new versions, providing programming features that were previously in
the realm of traditional computer languages. Macros allow programming for
automatic execution of keystroke sequences and easy data manipulation. Given
that spreadsheets are now the choice programs in many business applications,
they may also be superior as the programming environment where business
simulations are developed.
Several papers have touted the use of electronic spreadsheets as an aid in the
design and evaluation of business simulations, as well as their value in helping
students make decisions (see, e.g., King et al. 1988, Schwartz et al. 1989). The
1 Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 US;
phone 303-491-6324; facsimile (303) 491-6441
2Department of Finance and Real Estate, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
80523 US; phone 303-491-5062; facsimile 303-491-0596
307
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Arellano and Johnson
BUSINESS STRATEGY GAME is a business simulation currently on the
market that uses Lotus 1-2-3 as the only operating system. This paper espouses
the use of electronic spreadsheets for the complete development and operation
of a complex business simulation.
A business game that simulates the operations of a commercial bank within
the environment of the US banking system, was developed using lotus 1-2-3 as
the sole programming environment. The simulation, which was originally
developed in 1987, has been used and tested with bank managers and college
business students. With the advances offered in updated versions of spreadsheets, the simulation has been greatly improved.
Research Methodology
In a business simulation, the generation of financial statements includes the
combined preparation of cash flow, income, and balance statements. This
entails the calculation of sales revenue in terms of price and quantity sold. In
most simulations, participants decide on price while quantity is the result of
simulation algorithms. Factors such as economic conditions, price, promotion,
and other competition variables are often important in determining quantity.
Cash flow, income, and balance statement items, such as labor, materials,
promotion, and depreciation, also comprise participant decisions or are parameters set by the developer of the simulation. These parameters include labor
costs, depreciation rates, materials costs, and interest rates.
All of the elements involved with the simulation are easily programmed into
a spreadsheet environment. Once you have developed a spreadsheet model for
financial statements, the development of a full blown simulation requires construction of an assignment module linked to financial statements. Auxiliary
modules, including the logging and evaluating of decisions, and the continued
enhancement of the economic environment, can also be modelled and linked in
the same way. In the case of the bank simulation, the complexity and detail of
the financial statements resulted in the need for different files; one for the
evaluation of decisions, one for the assignment module, and one for the
processing of financial statements. An additional file contained a model that
allows the instructor to generate the economic environment and the initial
bank financial statements.
Developing the Simulation
A prototype was first developed with many of the simulation operations being
performed manually. The development continued with the use of program
commands and built-in functions and macros to automate some of the simulation's operations. The simulation was designed with separate files to enter and
check participant decisions, to make competitive assignments, to generate the
financial statements, and to create an environment for the administrator to
Using Spreadsheets for Business Simulations
309
model different economic scenarios. Separate files were used to overcome size
limitations.
The Decision Model
This model contains the decisions of all participating firms. Decisions are
entered manually by the administrator, or automatically from each firm's
file by using a "file combine" command. Once the decisions are loaded, a
subroutine checks each decision using "if' conditions. A report including the
number of firms for which unallowed decisions were detected is generated and
printed if desired. Some incorrect entries are automatically corrected by the
program.
This model allows the instructor to control the number of decisions that can
be made by the participants, with default values for those that are excluded.
This option allows for a gradual introduction of the simulation to the participants, and for a better understanding of the effect of some variables when
variability in others is eliminated.
The Assignment Model
The firm's decisions as well as information on the economic environment are
loaded into this file from the decision file, and the results are extracted and
later loaded into the file that generates the financial statements. This model
contains the algorithms for allocation. The interaction between economic
environment conditions and the firm's decisions determines the allocation of
sales to each firm, which in this case is based on loans and deposits.
The spreadsheet format allows for easy, quick, and efficient testing of the
assignment model. Changes in parameters and decisions are easily incorporated, and the testing requires only the use of the familiar recalculation
procedure. One of the characteristics of a spreadsheet is that the formulas and
programming code (macros) are in the environment where the reports or
results are displayed. This permits immediate testing of changes made in
formulas and in decisions. The spreadsheet format also allows partitioning of
complex formulas into simple ones to observe the response of the algorithms to
different levels of decisions.
The Financial Statement Model
The financial statement model is a straightforward application of an electronic
spreadsheet. It builds the cash flow, income statement, and balance sheet for
each team. Footnotes, or detailed reports, are used to provide additional
explanation. Parameters such as interest rates, tax rates, personnel salary,
depreciation rate, and others are explicitly shown in cells, allowing for easy
visualization and modification.
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Arellano and Johnson
To conserve memory, individual team financial statements are processed
sequentially. After each firm is processed, the new report is saved in a file, and
then copied into the firm's disk for use in the following period. Printing of each
firm's report is optional and takes place after the report is generated. This
model also generates the instructor's report, which includes a summary of the
firm's decisions, the assignments, main financial statements variables, and a
performance ranking.
The Economic Environment and Firm Initial Statements
Model
The simulation contains an economic environment and a set of initial financial
statements, which can be changed. For example, one can design an inflationary
environment by entering the quarterly inflation rate and setting a desired
quarter variability through the use of the random number generator. A table
contains the firm's balance structure in percentage terms. Finally, individual
cells hold the simulation parameters, which allows for easy change of parameters. The administrator can choose not to model the economic environment, in which case, a default economic environment is already built into the
simulation.
The Participant Model
The participant model, which allows teams to forecast future performance, was
derived from the financial statement model: it is contained in a similar file, with
the difference that the participants must estimate deposit and loan levels and
certain current economic conditions. Since the basic model is given, participants can concentrate on making decisions and estimating their effect on
sales rather than on model building. Performing what-if analyses is efficient
and accurate.
Advantages of Using a Spreadsheet Environment
Using a spreadsheet as a simulation environment has three major advantages
from both the point of view of program development and program operation.
First, use of built-in commands and functions facilitates easier construction of
routine financial reports. The programming that is required is far less complicated in a spreadsheet environment. Second, administrators and participants
are commonly familiar with the operation of the spreadsheet program. Therefore, it requires less training and education for both administrators and participants. Some instructors are unwilling to use simulations because of the startup costs of learning the program. The initial costs are clearly lower when the
spreadsheet program is already being used. Third, reports and data from the
Using Spreadsheets for Business Simulations
311
simulation are formatted in standard spreadsheet format. This makes it easier
for participants to analyze performance and forecast future performance. Data
is available for graphical presentation if the administrator requires a report to
shareholders for each team. The administrator can also use the data to help
demonstrate performance to the participants.
Limitations of Using a Spreadsheet Environment
There are a few significant limitations in developing simulations in a spreadsheet environment. First, special care has to be taken to protect parts of the
code. With later versions of some spreadsheet programs, capabilities exist to
store macros in separate files and to protect sensitive algorithms. The possibility also exists of compiling the allocational part of the program to make it
inaccessible. Some limitations on file size can present problems if the simulation is large and complex. This limitation requires some additional work in
setting up separate files and some additional programming to move and combine files.
Conclusions
The characteristics of electronic spreadsheets make them a suitable programming alternative in the development of business simulations. Given the
widespread use of spreadsheets, it is anticipated that more business simulations
will be developed in the future using this programming tool.
References
BUSINESS STRATEGY GAME. Thompson A, Stapepenbeck G (1990) Richard D,
Irwin (Homewood, IL 60430, US)
King B, King A, Crookall D (1988) Using spreadsheets for games calculations and
model development. Simulation/Games for Learning 18(1):95-101
Schwartz R, Teach R, Letson S (1989) Teaching forecasting, cash budgeting, and
inventory model building using SBTOOLS. In: Wingender J, Wheatley W (eds)
Developments in business simulations and experiential exercises, vol. 17, P 213
Fernando E. Arellano, from Peru, is a PhD graduate student and instructor
in the Department of Economics at Colorado State University. He has
coauthored BANMAN, a bank management simulation, and has also developed MANECSIM, a simulation for use in managerial economics courses.
Richard D. lohnson is a PhD in Finance. He is an associate professor in the
Department of Finance and Real Estate at Colorado State University. He
has coauthored BANMAN and three books about commercial banking. He
also conducts seminars about specialized topics in banking.
A Holistic Approach to Using a Marketing
Strategy Simulation
Olivia de Bergerac1
Abstract. MARKSTRAT is a complex marketing strategy game which invites five teams
to compete with a portfolio of products in the consumer electronic markets. However,
like most of the traditional business games, MARKSTRAT is characterized by three
unfortunate features: a mono-disciplinary approach, a tendency for cultural blindness,
and an ethnocentric vision. In order to address these issues, I will investigate three
different points of view: the designers, the lecturer, and the students. From the congruence and discrepancy of these different perspectives, I will recommend a multidisciplinary and an integrative approach for using MARKSTRAT in an MBA program.
Based on a strategy which combines the business simulation with the "simulated
environmental laboratory" created by the exercise, the new approach extends the use of
MARKSTRAT from a marketing strategy simulation to (1) a management game, (2) an
intercultural communication exercise, and (3) a global strategy game.
Key words business game; computerized simulation; global management game; intercultural communication exercise; marketing strategy
Originally conceived as a research environment for strategic studies in marketing, MARKSTRAT has become instead a popular classroom game in graduate
and management-education programs. The MARKSTRAT simulation is today
used by several hundred business schools and corporations in many countries.
The purpose of this paper is to explore the use and the potential use of
MARKSTRAT in the curriculum of an MBA program. In order to do so, I
will investigate three different points of view. Starting from the designers
who created the game, I will move on to the lecturer who uses it, and then
to the students who have been through the experiential learning process.
From the congruence and discrepancy of these three different perspectives,
I will recommend a multidisciplinary and integrative approach for using
MARKSTRAT in an MBA program. This takes advantage of the following
facets of the simulation: (1) as a management game, (2) as an intercultural
simulation, and (3) as a global strategy game.
1 Australian Graduate School of Management, University of NWS, NSW 2033 Australia;
phones 2-931 9200 (w) 2-665 0712 (h); facsimiles 2-662 2451 (w), 2-664 2018 (h)
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A Marketing Strategy Simulation
313
MARKSTRAT: A Marketing Strategy Game
MARKSTRAT's inventors, Jean-Claude Larreche (INSEAD) and Hubert
Gatignon (Wharton School), describe its raison d'etre, definition, and story in
the following manner: Competence in marketing is related to taking the right
course of action. One may have read all existing articles on marketing and
know all the theories and still be a poor marketing practitioner if this knowledge is not properly translated into action. Marketing strategy knowledge is
not an end in itself but a means to an end. Marketing strategy being an actionoriented discipline, an essential part of the learning process is actually to
perform tasks in a real environment. Simulations emphasize the application of
concepts in an action-oriented approach; students have to make decisions (as
opposed to recommendations) and live with their consequences.
In addition to marketing-mix considerations, the simulation allows students
to make decisions on product portfolios, market segmentation, and productpositioning issues. It requires a segmentation of markets, an evolving product
line with suppressions and introductions, and hence the development of nonmarketing functions, such as research and development.
Five firms (teams) in a MARKSTRAT industry begin with different relative
competitive positions, but each firm has two brands in the marketplace.
Throughout the course of the game, firms are free to introduce new brands into
the market, withdraw old ones, and modify existing brands. In addition, firms
must make decisions related to production, advertising, sales, pricing, and
product-positioning for each of their brands in each period.
How MARKSTRAT is Used in the AGSM MBA Program
David Midgley, professor of Marketing Strategy Australian Graduate School
of Management (AGSM), justifying the use of MARKSTRAT, emphasizes the
point that the simulation helps to bridge the gap between textbook learning
and the operational circumstances that hold in real life:
While lectures are included to revise key strategic frameworks, these are
then applied and reinforced by case studies (48% of the final grade) and
by MARKSTRAT simulation (52% of the final grade). Indeed a significant proportion of the subject is devoted to MARKSTRAT since the
exercise provides an excellent vehicle to illustrate longer-term strategies,
and it also allows you to practice your strategic skills in a realistic setting.
The format chosen is an interrupted or discrete game time. This mode has
the advantage of not upsetting delicate MBA class scheduling. It takes place
during the first class sessions and then during students' free time (evenings and
weekends) over the 10 weeks of the MBA term. Students are free to form
teams according to their affinities.
At the beginning of the simulation exercise, the teams are assigned to a firm
and receive a report of their firm for period zero. The teams are able from the
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de Bergerac
company report information and the information in the manual to evaluate the
relative market strength of their respective firms compared to the competition.
Each team is asked to submit two reports: (1) an initial report detailing the
team's definition of its corporation, its analysis of the starting product portfolio, and the marketing strategies proposed to bring successful performance
over the course of the game, and (2) a final report detailing what the team has
learned from the game-particularly with respect to the concepts explored in
the text, lectures, and cases. In addition, each team will make a final 10 min
presentation on their corporate performance over the game.
Student Feedback on MARKSTRAT Experience
Data were collected from two main sources. The AGSM students are asked at
the end of each term to fill in evaluation forms with specific questions on the
performance of the lecturer and open questions on the course. The quantitative
data consists of these 71 students' comments over 4 years from 1987 to 1990.
From these data, three main issues stand out:
1. Can a lecturer be a facilitator?
2. Is MARKSTRAT a win-lose game?
3. What is the group dynamic learning experience?
The majority of students enjoy and value the learning-by-playing process,
meanwhile a minority have some doubts about the learning experience because
it is a game. A lot of students find it hard to accept the fact that the lecturer is
just a facilitator.
The normal classroom of lectures is sender-centered communication, in
which knowledge is dispensed in a linear fashion from the teacher (sender) to
passive receivers (students). With experiential learning, communication is
changed to being primarily receiver-centered. The role of lecturers is therefore
altered from being that of an expert to that of facilitator (Freeman and Dumas
1989). The contradiction is that students recognize the value of the learning
process but cannot identify the lecturer's input. In the receiver-centered
model, a low lecturer profile is an indication of a well-designed learning
experience.
Some students questioned the competitive atmosphere created. It is recognized that MARKSTRAT generates a very competitive atmosphere in the
MBA program. There are many anecdotes about teams cheating, stealing
competitors' reports and sabotaging competitors' answers. Such actions lead to
the following questions: Does MARKSTRAT, like recreational games (e.g.,
DUNGEONS AND DRAGONS) teach aggressive and competitive values?
Is MARKSTRAT a win-lose game of destructive competition? However,
students emphasize the fact that MARKSTRAT is a very powerful group
dynamic learning process.
A Marketing Strategy Simulation
MARKSTRAT'S LEARNING PROCESS
M8rketing Str8tegy
Simu18t1on
Interculturel
Group
Simuletion
Simuleted Environment
Lebor8tory
Fig. 1. MARKSTRAT model
315
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de Bergerac
Recommendations
MARKSTRAT seems to be an effective means for the expression of feelings
(Freeman and Dumas 1989) amongst learners. In such an atmosphere of highly
participative conditions, attitude change appears to be likely. The game can
therefore be used for the achievement of three objectives: (1) the acquisition
and comprehension of new knowledge, (2) the application of new knowledge,
and (3) attitudinal change. The last objective is not yet fully explored in
MARKSTRAT. I will therefore recommend a new, more "holistic" approach
to using the game (Fig. 1).
Recommendation 1: Using MARKSTRAT as a Management Game
MARKSTRAT is a perfect tool for learning management skills. One student
from the team could be the group facilitator who observes and keeps a record
of the group-decision process and gives feedback at the end of each session,
helping the team to improve its communication skills. At the end of the game,
the team observer will be in charge of writing a report on the management of
the team exploring the following points: (1) peer skills, (2) leadership, (3) conflict resolution skills, and (4) skills of introspection. Using this new approach,
the team could benefit by providing a continual self-evaluation of the process
they are going through.
Recommendation 2: Using MARKSTRAT as an Intercultural Group
Simulation
Cultural diversity is a variable which is ignored in the MARKSTRAT game.
Since most MBA groups are multicultural, the game could be used as an
intercultural group communication and simulation exercise. The game would
allow the team not only to understand cultural similarities and differences and
their cause, but also to know how to act when working in foreign cultures. One
student could be the cultural integrator in charge of the cross-cultural process
of the simulation. By observing and analyzing the process, s/he could help the
team to improve their interaction process and make better decisions. At the
end of the game, the cultural integrator would be in charge of writing a report.
The game could allow students to understand what managing cultural diversity
means and how cultural synergy could increase performance.
Recommendation 3: Using MARKSTRAT as a Global Strategy Game
Markstrat is not an international or global game. However it could be modified
to become a global game. A project development team is currently working
on the idea. In this future global game, students could be organized into teams,
each representing a multinational corporation competing with other multinational corporations for market share. It would be a global management game
with international trade and cross-cultural communication problems, with firms
selling all around the world. The game would mix students for a cross-cultural
A Marketing Strategy Simulation
317
learning-experience. In this way, cultural differences are no longer ignored, but
start to be valued as a corporate asset and managed as a competitive advantage
by capitalizing on cultural diversity to understand the foreign market better.
The learning objective will then go beyond marketing strategy concepts.
Successful managers of the next decade will need to be cultural integrators.
A holistic approach to using MARKSTRAT could be a powerful tool for
developing the truly global manager, culturally sensitive in applying both
theory and practice. I expressly use the word global instead of international.
We can be international managers by acknowledging cultural differences;
we are global managers once we start to value cultural diversity and manage
it in a synergistic way. The only limit we would like to point out is that
MARKSTRAT is excellent in terms of teaching about the real world of marketing strategy, yet it appears to skirt the moral or ethical issue of what the
product actually is. In other words, it demonstrates prevalent attitudes of
consumerism, in the sense that it does not matter what you are selling, as long
as you sell it. Environmental issues, for example, are not addressed.
References
Cook VJ (1987) Introduction to strategic studies in MARKSTRAT. Journal of Business
Research 15(6):467-468
Cook VJ, Page JR (1987) Assessing marketing risk. Journal of Business Research
15(6):519-530
Crookall D, Saunders D (1989) Towards an integration of communication and simulation. In: Crookall D, Saunders D (eds) Communication and simulation: From two
fields to one theme. Multilingual Matters, Clevedon, Aron
Dodgson H (1987) Management learning in MARKSTRAT: The ICL experience.
Journal of Business Research 15:481-489
Freeman JM, Dumas P (1989) Business games: From business schools to business firms.
In: Crookall D, Saunders D (eds) Communication and simulation: From two fields to
one theme. Multilingual Matters Ltd, Clevedon, Aron
Glazer R, Winer RS, Steckel JH (1987) Group process and decision performance in a
simulated marketing environment. Journal of Business Research 15(6):545-557
Harris P, Moran R (1987) Managing cultural differences. Gulf Publishing, Houston
Ibe M, Sato N (1989) Educating Japanese leaders for a global age: The role of the
international education centre. Management Development in Japan 8
Kinnear TC, Klammer SK (1987) Management perspectives on MARKSTRAT: The
GE experience and beyond. Journal of Business Research 15(6):491-501
Larreche JC (1987) On simulations in business education and research. Journal of
Business Research 15:559-571
Larreche JC, Gatignon H (1977) MARKSTRAT strategy game; Participant's Manual.
Scientific Press, Palo Alto, CA
Olivia de Bergerac has a PhD in French Literature from the Universite de
Nice, France and an MBA from the University of NSW, Australia. She has
designed and run language in-house training programs in France, the US,
the UK and Australia for large companies (Schlumberger, Mitsui and Dow
Chemical). She is currently doing research for the Australian Graduate
School of Management.
Simulation Gaming and the Improvement
of Quality
James M. Freeman l
{tbstract. Improvements in quality performance in the Far East are slowly being
mirrored in the West. The role of analytic methods, including charts, in raising quality
standards is justly attracting wider recognition. SQCCHART is a new simulation/game,
written to support training in the effective use of statistical quality control charts.
Key words
charts; quality control; simulation; training
Quality is of global significance in world trade. Western companies have been
far slower than their counterparts in the Far East to exploit the potential of
formal quality assurance techniques. Japanese industry, in particular, is
thought to be three decades ahead of that of the US and EC countries. As a
result, quality costs have tended to be significantly higher in the West (Schmidt
and Jackson 1982) whilst, ironically, overall quality standards have been much
lower. It was recently estimated (Dilworth 1989) that the average cost of failing
to control quality in US companies was 25% of sales.
The SQCCHART package, recently developed at UMIST, is a simulation/
game for supporting specialist training in quality management. In particular,
SQCCHART demonstrates the most commonly applied statistical quality control (SQC) chart schemes in conformance quality testing (Schroeder 1989). The
package is so designed that trainees can discover, firsthand, the technical
behaviour of chosen schemes in a realistic, on-line setting. A gaming facility
built into SQCCHART helps with related skill assessment.
The software is described in outline in the last section of the paper. Beforehand, two introductory sections summarise respectively (1) the nature of
quality and quality control (QC) in business and (2) the role of statistics in the
maintainance of quality standards.
1 School
318
of Management, UMIST, PO Box 88, Manchester M60 1QD, UK
Improvement of Quality
319
Quality and Quality Control
The quality of a product is usually judged in terms of its fitness for use, a
"quality product" being defined as one that meets the needs of the marketplace
(Chan 1990). Quality, together with price and availability, is a key determinant
of customers' potential purchasing behaviour.
As consumers become more affluent and discerning, so management's
capability to control and improve the quality of its products becomes more
critical to its continued success. To achieve its quality goals, a company traditionally needs to address three major areas of concern (Dilworth 1989):
1. Quality of design-with respect to a product's meeting the minimum appropriate standard for use
2. Quality of conformance-in terms of a products's conforming to design
specifications
3. Quality of performance or service-as regards training and service support,
in order that a product can be considered satisfactory within reasonable
expectations
Statistical quality control charts focus particularly on the second area in the list.
Quality control (QC) is the generic term used to describe all activities
a company undertakes to ensure a product performs to the customer's satisfaction. Such activities typically involve many different groups within the
company, including engineering, production, and marketing staff. This multidisciplinary approach to the subject highlights the pervasive nature of QC, or
Total Quality Control (TQC) as some prefer to name it.
Statistical Quality Control
Statistical quality control (SQC) is the major means of determining whether
goods or services perform to specification. (Alternatives such as customer
interviews and product testing can be expensive.) With SQC, sampling is
usually used in preference to 100% inspection because of the much lower costs
involved. In some situations, such as destructive testing, sampling is, of course,
the only practical option.
Sampling, carried out as the product is being made (process control sampling), is typically differentiated from that undertaken after production is
complete (acceptance sampling). The first is normally the responsibility of the
supplier while the second tends to be the concern of the customer.
The sampling procedure itself can be by attributes or variables. With sampling by attributes, items are classified as either good or defective and lots of
items as acceptable or unacceptable. The degree to which items are found to be
defective is not an issue with this approach. It is, however, when sampling is by
variables. With this option, measurements are taken of a characteristic, such as
a dimension or weight, to establish how far these differ from a prescribed
quality standard.
320
Freeman
SQCCHART, in its present form, deals only with control charts for variables. Variables charts are more expensive to operate than attributes charts,
but have the advantage of providing more information about the processes they
are used on.
Control Charts
In every production process, a certain amount of natural variation always
exists. This occurs regardless of how well the process was designed or implemented, or how adequately it is being maintained. The variation is uncontrolled and results from numerous small causes. When it is low, the process
is said to be in statistical control.
Processes that are out of control are operating in the presence of assignable
causes of variation, relating to the machines, operators, or materials used
(machines can become improperly adjusted, operators make mistakes, etc.).
Normally, production processes operate in control most of the time. If, however, a process slips out of control, a significant portion of output may not
conform to specification.
A useful way of monitoring the performance of a production process is by
means of the control chart, an example of which is shown in Fig. 1 (Jerry
1989). Each observation here relates to a sample of processed items. It may be
an individual reading (when the sample size is one) or, for example, the
average of a number of measurements. The center line (CL) represents a target
or standard value for the characteristic, against which sample values are
compared.
The VCL and LCL lines represent the upper and lower control limits
respectively. These are chosen by statistical convention, so that assuming the
process is in control, the probability of a sample point falling outside the limits
is quite small. If a point goes above the VCL or below the LCL, this is taken as
evidence that the process has gone out of control. In this case, a search is made
for an assignable cause and appropriate corrective action is taken.
Benefits
Benefits arising from the effective use of control charts (Chan 1990) include
good record keeping, on-line control, reduction of scrap, and the provision of
diagnostic information and data on process capability. Training in this area
can, therefore, prove extremely productive, as can the development of appropriate action-oriented learning materials.
SQCCHART
SQCCHART is a stand-alone, menu-driven package which runs on an IBM
PC or compatible. It functions at two basic levels: demonstration and testing. These both depend heavily on the package's capability for simulating a
standard repertoire of control charts. Charts used for monitoring process
Improvement of Quality
~-
321
UCL
CI.
LCL
Time
Fig. 1. Typical control chart. VCL, upper control limit; CL, center line; LCL, lower
control limit. From Jerry (1989) with permission
Shewh::.rt
iT,-or
k
l8
ARI.(O.25)=B04
3
. ·······················.............................................................................................
.07tr·~:
_3.~L
. . . . . :.:. ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..
CuScores
a=8 llat.4a
RUN No:a04
UALUE:3.278
SJONA SNJFT:0.25 SPEEo:a
Spac. : ARL Tabl.
(S)p ••d
(A)lter sieMa value
or
(C)ontinu.
Fig. 2. Comparative plots with SQCCHART. ARL, average run length
variability (so-called R- and S-charts) are handled separately from corresponding X-charts, which measure the central tendency of a series of samples. For Xtype charts in particular, six options are available with the package (Shewhart
1931, Page 1954, Munford 1980, Lucas and Crosier 1982).
Charts from this list can be screened individually or in pairs (Fig. 2). By
experimentation, such as introducing different shifts in the process mean
as charts are being screened, the sensitivity of schemes to changes can be
observed. In this way, users are quickly able to build up an instinct as to which
322
Freeman
CuScores
a=S k-t.49
a-
St·····
................................................. -....................................................................... .
..: i - m m m
o
I
2
3
!S
~
,-r -r
,
"1
8
9 10 11 12 13 H I!S I' 1"1 18 19 20 21 22 23
2~
2!S U 2"1 28 29 30
·-r
Has
the~
been _ shift in "ean ?
By how "any siVft_ ? (0.25 0.5 0.75 t
St.~
fo~"
whieh ob.e~vtin
IoIant
_t.~
_
?
tV]
o~
t"]
t.5 2 2.5 3 o~
?t2
~)
0.5
tV] or tN]
Fig. 3. Testing skill at interpreting a control chart
schemes are most appropriate for dealing with which circumstances. Note that
throughout SQCCHART, schemes are assessed according to their average run
length (ARL) details (Chan 1990, BS5703 1981).
Three different types of R-chart are simulated with SQCCHART. These can
be manipulated in much the same way as for the X-type charts described
earlier. Note that the S-chart options with the package exactly parallel those
for the R-chart.
Testing
A simple gaming routine has been programmed into SQCCHART to help with
testing trainee skills at interpreting control charts (Fig. 3). When this is running, random plots, using computer-generated normal observations (Yakowitz
1987), are presented to the user who then has to decide for each whether a
shift in the underlying parameter has taken place. Also, if relevant, the user
decides the size of the shift and at which point in the observation series the
change occurred. Performance in the test is scored at each stage, providing
trainees with useful feedback on their skill at reading problem charts.
The ISAGA Session
The SQCCHART prototype was demonstrated at the conference to a mixed
group of mainly Japanese and American delegates. A laptop with an LCD
screen was specially brought into the lecture room for this purpose. Despite
hardware limitations, the package worked very efficiently, one university
expressing an interest in acquiring it.
Improvement of Quality
323
References
BS5703 (1981) British Standard Institute, London
Chan WC (1990) SQCCHART, a computer-based training package relating to the use
of statistical quality control charts. MSc dissertation, University of Manchester
Dilworth JB (1989) Production and operations management. McGraw-Hill, New York
Jerry B (1989) Principles of quality control. Wiley, New York
Lucas JM, Crosier RB (1982) Fast initial response for CUSUM quality control schemes:
Give your CUSUM a head start. Technometrics 24:199-205
Munford AG (1980) A control chart based on cumulative scores. Applied Statistics
29:252-258
Page ES (1954) Continuous inspection schemes. Biometrika 41:100-115
Schmidt JW, Jackson JF (1982) Measuring the cost of product quality. In: "Effective quality cost analysis for increased profit and productivity/SP-512". Society of
Automotive Engineers, Warrenton, PA
Schroeder RG (1989) Operations management. McGraw-Hill, New York
Shewhart WA (1931) Economic control of quality of manufactured product. Van
Norstrand, New York
Jim Freeman lectures in Quantitative Methods at the University of
Manchester Institute of Science and Technology. The author of many
articles on management simulation, he specializes in producing computerbased packages-particularly business games-for outside organizations. He is currently working on a series of packages for use in quality
management.
Section 5
Assembled Abstracts
Building More Meaning into the Organizational
Modeling Process
Margaret M. Beranek and Connie E. Wells l
Abstract. The documentation that is generated during systems analysis and design is the
basis for the development of new information systems. The contents of that documentation are determined, to a large extent, by the methodology and models used by the
systems analyst/designer. The systems analyst/designer will define system characteristics
as identified by these models, and exclude any organizational or system characteristics
not identified by these models. In the past several years much attention has been given
to the inclusion of social, cultural, and psychological characteristics of the users and
user environment into the Information System modeling process. The organizational
modeling process needs to be expanded to include these aspects in our system models if
we are to consciously address them during the SA&D process and to therefore enrich
the organizational model. We present social, political, behavioral, and cultural factors
that have a profound impact on the organization and that need to be included in the
modeling process and present techniques for integrating these factors in the modeling
process.
1 Computer Information Systems Department, Georgia State University, Atlanta,
GA 30303 USA; phone (404) 651-3880; facsimile (404) 651-2804; e-mail:
CISMMB@GSUVM1
Organizational Modeling: Rationales, Issues, and
Methods
Minder Chen l and Kunihiko Higa 2
Abstract. The increasing complexity and dynamics of modern organizations have made
it difficult for people in them to understand and manage them. But modeling an
organization is a difficult process, if not an impossible one. We raise several issues and
1 Department of Decision Sciences and MIS, School of Business Administration,
George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030 US; phone 703993-1788; facsimile 703-993-1809; e-mail Bitnet: mchen@gmuvax
2 Information Technology for Management, College of Management, Georgia Institute
of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332 US; phone 404-894-4365; facsimile 404-8946030; e-mail Bitnet: khiga@gtriOl
327
328
Assembled Abstracts
assumptions about organizational modeling in this paper. The potential usages of
organizational models are suggested. The large amount of information and complex
relations among objects in the organization dictate the use of information technologies
to support organizational modeling. An object-oriented multi-dimensional organizational modeling method is presented. Future research directions in organizational
modeling are explored.
Using a Simulation Tool for Defining Global Problems
Dorien J. de Tombe l
Abstract. Global problems are often very complex. Some of the complex interdisciplinary global problems, such as the sudden changes in Eastern Europe, the Gulf
war, and AIDS, are very hard to handle. Even defining the problem is difficult.
Managers and experts often lack the knowledge and training as to how to handle these
kinds of problems. Regular education provides little opportunity to learn how to handle
these kind of problems, as it focuses on well-defined problems in strictly divided
domains in a constant context. Policy makers need special training for analysis of
complex interdisciplinary problems imbedded in a dynamic context. This training can be
done using a free-form game as a didactical context in which cases can be analyzed.
Cases that are not defined and well-structured give the opportunity to deal with all the
aspects of a real life problem. Defining complex interdisciplinary problems is teamwork.
A system dynamic modelling tool can give a graphical representation of the mental
model of the problem. With this computer simulation tool a scenario of the problem-can
be made in which one can simulate the effect of interventions on the problem. The
graphical model can function as a shared language to help experts in different fields
concentrate on the same aspects of the problem during the discussion.
1 Faculty of Social Sciences, Utrecht University, po Box 3286, 1001 AB, Amsterdam,
The Netherlands; phone 20-692-7526; e-mail detombe@lri.jur.uva.nl
A Proposal to Develop an International Business
Simulation Laboratory
Joanne Velan Dunn l
Abstract. This paper will outline the rationale and plan presented at ISAGA 91 for the
development of an International Business Simulation Laboratory. A survey assessed the
interests of participants in cooperatively participating in an international consortium to
develop a prototype resource model for use in schools and businesses throughout the
world. Participants were asked to identify effective simulation/games and relevant
1 Department of Instructional Communications, Community College of Allegheny
County, Allegheny Campus, 808 Ridge Ave. M-523 , Pittsburgh, PA 15212-6097 US;
phone 412-237-2628 (w) 412-922-5159 (h), facsimile 412-922-5159
Assembled Abstracts
329
materials from their own country to share with other members. An outline for a
cooperative pilot project was discussed as well as possible methods for funding, types of
resources, and content areas.
Law, Contract, and Power
KaoruEndo l
Abstract. The development of computer networks is affecting various aspects of society,
both nationally and internationally. In such an age, the rules for the formation of social
structure should be reviewed radically; for example, how can the aggregation of
egocentric actions by individuals generate macro social structures from a chaotic state?
Although this has long been a common theme in sociology and its importance is now
increasing because of the ecological implications, up to now no clear theoretical answer
has been established. In this paper, I present some models to solve this problem.
The models have the following features: in the initial state, there is no given social
consciousness because of the original nature of human beings. There are no given laws,
ethics, morality, and so on. Each individual does not have complete information about
the whole world, and there is uncertainty about the natural world. Each individual
produces some kinds of goods necessary for his life and acts for self-preservation on
rules set by the individual based on his experiences and limited observations. Depending on the results, the rules can be changed to interact with others. The models showed
that repetition of interactions among individuals resulted in formation of certain recognizable patterns which could be interpreted as formation of natural law, power, and
social structure. Based on these findings, I believe that the models offer some insights
into social change and social relationships.
1 Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Center for Humanities and Social
Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 O-okayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152
Japan; phone 03-3726-1111 (ext. 2268)
Design of a Computer Game for Managing
an Apparel Retail Store
Maiko Fukuda!, Katsuaki Kuroda 2, and Masanobu Miki2
Abstract. The purpose of this study is to improve the ability of enterprise administrators
of the apparel retail trade to solve problems. We have used a computer-based management game that emphasizes the ability to utilize information. As a prior step, a
management game to improve this ability was designed.
1 Department of Computer Instruction, Teikoku Women's Junior College 6-21-57
Tohda Moriguchi, Osaka, 570 Japan; phone 6-902-0791; facsimile 6-902-8894
2 Department of Clothing and Fashion, Faculty of Domestic Science, Teikoku Women's
College
330
Assembled Abstracts
A Micro World for Kanji Learning
Toshihiro Hayashi and Yoneo Yano l
Abstract. Kanji consist of part structures and these often have smaller part structures
too. Kanji part structures represent (a) the meaning, (b) the pronunciation, and (c)
various meanings by combining with other part structures. We have developed an
environment for learning kanji and understanding these features using a computer,
targeted at foreigners who are learning Japanese. The environment, a "micro world"
for kanji learning, allows students to construct various kanji using kanji part structures
and new kanji part structures by combining kanji part structures too.
1 Department of Information Science and Intelligent Systems, Tokushima University, 21 Minamijyosanjima, Tokushima, 770 Japan; phone 886-23-2311; facsimile 886-23-2761;
e-mail rupoxy@tokugw.is.tokushima-u.ac.jp.yano@tokugw.is.tokushima-u.ac.jp
Game Paradigm CAl
Takayuki /ida l and Akira Kikuyama 2
Abstract. We have developed a prototype CAl course software which has an environmental interface based on the game paradigm for children who have never played
with video games and do not know how to operate a computer. The course involves
drill-type mathematics combined with fantastic pictures as with role-playing games.
Learners walk around in the dungeon of the mathematical course and fight with
problem monsters.
1 Konami Co., Ltd, 3-25 Kanda-Jinbocho, ChiyodAku, Tokyo, 101 Japan; phones 033262-9126 (w~
0473-77-7062 (h); facsimile 03-3262-9115
2 Address as ; phone 03-3221-7160 (w); facsimile 03-3261-6211
Residents' Attitude Shifts in an Environmental Dispute:
A Case Study of a Golf Course Location Dispute
Yoshiki Kago and Sachihiko Harashina l
Abstract. Since the concept of sustainable growth was advocated, the balance between
development and environmental protection has been a most important problem.
Nowadays the general public take great interest in environmental problems, and there
are often protests against development, a trend which will become even stronger from
now on. This paper, looks at one of the golf course location disputes that have arisen in
recent years in Japan as a case study of an environmental dispute. We carried out a field
1 Department of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 O-okayama,
Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152 Japan; phones 03-3726-1111 ext. 3195; facsimile 03-3729-1131
Assembled Abstracts
331
survey, including many personal interviews with the local residents, and a questionnaire
sheet survey. Focusing Analysis on the attitudes of the local residents towards the plan,
we found an attitude shift of local residents in the dispute. At the outset, proponents
and opponents were almost equal in numbers, and therefore there was serious conflict.
However, 5 months later, opponents were in the majority, and the number of unconcerned people had decreased to 9%. Analysis of the cause of this attitude shift
showed that the information provided during the dispute played a very important role:
1. The major cause of the attitude shift was the availability of reliable information.
2. Lack of information results in chaos, with the dispute becoming more serious.
3. For better agreement, reliable information and face-to-face discussions among the
local residents are needed.
Future Status of Airborne Infectious Diseases:
Evolution and Eradication
Masayuki Kakehashi and Fumitaka Yoshinaga 1
Abstract. We predicted the future status of airborne infectious diseases in a human
population using a mathematical model of infectious diseases. The predictions were
derived from the viewpoints of evolution and eradication. We predicted that, from an
evolutionary viewpoint, pathogens evolve to be less virulent as the host life span
increases. The condition for successful eradication was derived mathematically: susceptible host density in the absence of the pathogen should be reduced less than that in the
presence of the pathogen. The predictions were considered to be valid for a wide range
of infectious diseases. The extent to which the history of man and pathogens can be
verified by the predictions was also discussed.
1 Department of Public Health, Hiroshima University School of Medicine, Kasumi,
Minami-ku, Hiroshima, 734 Japan; phone 082-251-1111 (ext. 2214); facsimile 082-2558482
Development of Game-Wise CAl and the Prerequisites
Ikuo Kitagaki1
Abstract. When answering multiple-choice questions, students frequently use "elimination" instead of "positive selection" by looking for the right answer as a means of
arriving at the correct choice. Since discrimination between these two methods is
important to proper academic evaluation, the author proposes a CAl system permitting
such discrimination to be conducted based upon game theory. In other words, an
element of "gaming" is included within the framework of the question-answer process.
1 Division of Research and Development, The Institute of Vocational Training, 4-1-1
Hashimotodai, Sagamihara, 229 Japan; phones 0427-61-2111 (ext. 769) (w) 0484-437110(h); facsimile 0427-61-9946
332
Assembled Abstracts
The author reviews the results of this system in light of both game statistical decision
theory, and discusses the prerequisites to construct this framework. In the framework, if
a student answers correctly, whether he/she gains points is dependent upon whether the
answering was done by "elimination" or "positive selection."
Heat Trap: Methodological Considerations for
a Policy Exercise on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Jan H.G. Klabbers 1
Abstract. In social systems an almost limitless number of ill-structured situations exist
that cannot be dealt with in isolation. They hardly qualify as problems. Problem solving
per se as encountered in mathematics and physics does not provide an appropriate
context for dealing with issues such as environmental planning, health care planning,
urban planning, and so on. It is against this background that gaming and simulation will
be discussed. Gaming provides a language for combining the sociallhuman domain with
the physical, technological, and economic domains. Three types of learning environments will be distinguished for integrating these knowledge domains. The methodology
presented here provides a framework for dealing with complicated issues such as
sustainable development of social systems. This will be illustrated through specifications
for a policy exercise on greenhouse gas emissions.
1 Department of Public Administration, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738,
3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands; phone 010-4082397; facsimile 010-4527842;
Center for Policy Analysis and Advice Nijmegen (CBAIN), St. Canisiussingel 26, 6511
TJ Nijmegen, The Netherlands; phone 080-240222 (w) phone 08811-62455 (h); facsimile
080-238790
History Education and the Use of Simulation/Games
K. Yoshihiro Kuriyama 1
Abstract. History as a discipline has been made a sine qua non of precollege and
university lower division schooling in order to foster proper citizenship in prospective new members of a society. In performing this task history has helped develop
ethnocentric biases in young minds. The use of person-computer simulation may help
students overcome the pitfalls of history education and acquire a sense of global
interdependence.
1 Department of History, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, Indiana 47809 US;
phones 812-237-2714, 812-237-2710
Assembled Abstracts
333
Modeling and Managing a Top Management Game by
an Expert System Tool
Toshiro Kurozawa 1
Abstract. In university education, the effectiveness of a top management game decreases if the same model is repeated every year. Instructors must modify the game
programs directly to change rules and parameters, a time-consuming and problematic
process. In this paper an expert system structure is proposed which supports modeling
and managing of a top management game so as to avoid such programming efforts. It is
composed of an expert system shell, game programs, and some blackboards, and is
executable by NEC-PCs. The production-system inference engine modifies the market
size and the share of each firm on a market rules-basis. It also provides diagnostics for
the players on a financial diagnostic rules-basis. Instructors can easily develop and
operate many games with different rules every year using the original editor of the
expert system. In addition, suitable diagnostics for the players can improve the quality
of education.
1 Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Setsunan
University, 17-8 Ikeda-nakamachi, Neyagawa, Osaka, 572 Japan; phone 0720-26-5101
(w); facsimile 0720-26-5100; e-mail c62042g@ccsunOl.center.osaka-u.ac.jp
Differences that Make a Difference:
Intercultural Communication, Simulation,
and the Debriefing Process
Linda Costigan Lederman 1
Abstract. Communication is a fundamental life process through which humans learn to
make sense of their worlds and relate themselves to other people. Many of the dynamics
associated with that process are cultre~bond
such as the explicit and implicit rules
surrounding language choice and usage. To the extent that much of human communication is culture-bound, teaching about communication involves teaching about culture
and its effects upon the process of communication. There is a natural isomorphy
between experiential learning and the study of communication in general, and intercultural communication in particular. Experiential learning in the classroom incorporates those real life processes into the educational setting in order for them to be used
and scrutinized. The heart of these sorts of learning experiences is the post-experience
analytic process, generally referred to as the debriefing session. This essay focuses on
the debriefing process as it accompanies one form of experiential learning, simulations
and games. It provides an analysis of the debriefing process and effective strategies for
its use, with special attention to debriefing in intercultural communication learning
contexts.
1 Department of Communication, Rugters University, New Brunswick, NJ US 08903;
phones (908) 932-8285 (w) (609) 921-2911 (h); facsimile 908-932-6916; e-maillederman
@ zodiac
334
Assembled Abstracts
Capturing Organizational Knowledge Through
Modeling
Yihwa Irene Liou l and Kunihiko Higa 2
Abstract. Acquiring organizational knowledge from managers and subsequently representing that knowledge in forms such as rules are vital to the building of an organization model. It would be possible to integrate expert systems based on such an
organization model with existing organizational information systems. This paper introduces the Structured Object Model (SOM) as a means to acquire and represent organizational knowledge to build expert systems. The benefits of SOM and the application of
SOM to the expert system development process are discussed. The paper concludes
with the limitations of this method and future research directions.
1 Information and Quantitative Sciences Department, Merrick School of Business,
University of Baltimore, 1420 North Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201 US;
phone 301-625-3420; facsimile 301-752-2821; e-mail Bitnet: earvlio@ube, Internet:
earvlio@ube.ub.umd.edu
2 Information Technology for Management, College of Management, Georgia Institute
of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332 US; phone 404-894-4365; facsimile 404-8946030; e-mail Bitnet: khiga@gtriOI
Modeling and Diagnosing a Misconception by
Hypothesis-Based Reasoning for ITS
Noboru Matsuda l and Toshio Okamoto 2
Abstract. This paper describes a framework to infer a student's misconception from
observed errors during problem solving processes. A human teacher can generate
hypotheses about reasons for an error by observing a student's problem solving process.
He or she is also able to identify the student's misconception during the verifying
process of these hypotheses. Furthermore, by using these hypotheses he can generate
new tasks to evaluate the student's understanding level. In this way, appropriate
instructions based on the student's knowledge structure can be provided. To accomplish
such a behavior within an ITS, we have defined a domain model and applied hypothesisbased reasoning to diagnose the student model. When the system finds an error in a
student's problem solving process, it attempts to generate hypotheses which explain that
error in terms of the domain model.
1 Department of Center for Computer Assisted Instruction, Faculty of Engineering,
Kanazawa Institute of Technology, 7-1 Ohgigaoka, nonoichi, Ishikawa, 921 Japan;
phone 0762(48)1100; facsimile 0762(48)6189; e-mail mazda@cai.kanazawa-it.ac.jp
2 Department of Educational Information Science, Faculty of Education, Tokyo
Gakugei University, 4-1-1 Nukuikita, Koganei, Tokyo, 184 Japan; phone 0423(25)2111;
facsimile 0423(22)9898; e-mail C05713@sinet.ad.jp
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335
On Problem Solving and Decision Making in MUSAS,
a Musical Arrangement System
Tatsuya Mikami l and Kazuo Inoue 2
Abstract. MUSAS is a system for automatic music arrangement. In our research, the
definition of musical arrangement is "to get a four-part melody through selection of
appropriate chords from the given monotonic melody,'.' and the problem of musical
arrangement includes decision making using information combined with fuzziness and
uncertainty. It is necessary to observe and analyze the intelligence of human thinking
processes in order to build intelligent systems with higher performance. Therefore, we
regard the realization of MUSAS not only as a development of expert systems, but also
as it simulation of human thinking processes with intelligence through the problem of
musical arrangement. MUSAS uses three stages to process the musical arrangement,
the melody interpretation stage, the chord selection stage, and the harmony generation
stage. In these stages, there are some sub-knowledge-based systems to solve each
problem independently. But, in each stage, plural solutions obtained by some subsystems have to be reduced to one solution for one problem. Therefore, MUSAS
consists of a cooperative-distributed problem solver with strata. The prototype system
was implemented for Japanese nursery songs, and, we are now developing a second
system for jazz standards. In this paper, the problem of the musical arrangement,
mainly focusing on the problem of chord selection, is described, and the results of the
simulation of chord selection through sub-systems are shown.
1 Advanced
Software Technology and Mechatronics Research Institute of Kyoto
(ASTEM RI), 17 Chudoji Minami-machi, Shimogyo-ku, Kyoto, 600 Japan; phone 75315-8652; facsimile 75-315-2898; e-mail mikami@astem.or.jp
2 Department of Computer Science and System Engineering, Faculty of Science and
Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Tojiij Kita-machi, Kita-ku, Kyoto, 603 Japan;
phone 75-465-1111; facsimile 75-465-8239
Simulation of Polarization from Each Group Decision
Mieko Nakamura l
Abstract. Group polarization is a tendency in which the mean of group decisions is
shown to be more extreme than the mean of individual decisions. Though this is a stable
tendency, it says very little about each group decision. In this paper, we simulated
group polarization in terms of each group decision. We assumed that each group has a
focal point to which every group member concentrates hislher attention. The focal point
refers to a tacit understanding, concerning one, whose decision is considered to be right
for the group decision. To calculate the focal point and to predict each group decision,
we used the Meta-Contrast Ratio (MCR). Accumulating the predicted group decisions,
we simulated group polarization.
1 Faculty of Economics, Ryutsu Keizai University, Hirahata 120, Ryugasaki, Ibaraki,
301 Japan; phones 297-64-0001 (w) 298-73-2589 (h); facsimile 297-64-0011
336
Assembled Abstracts
Gaming/Simulation for Research into Road Pricing
Toshinori Nemoto 1
Abstract. A gaming/simulation model has been developed in order to test hypotheses on
the decision-making process concerning the introduction of road pricing. Although
economic theory holds that road pricing brings net benefits to cities with traffic problems, in most cases it has not been accepted by the public. This implies that the real
decision-making process is ruled not only by the "efficiency" that the economic model is
based on, but also by other criteria. This paper reviews the political controversies in
several cities and clarifies the dynamics where a social decision, either for or against
road pricing, was made. It is thus hypothesized that the real issue is how distribution
of the tolls collected. A gaming/
effects result from the policy package, including us~
simulation model on road pricing is then introduced. In order to make the outcomes of
simulations understandable, the model focuses on the economic motivation of the
players and predicts their behavior with relation to gain or loss.
1 Faculty of Economics, Fukuoka University, Nanakuma Jonan-ku Fukuoka, 814-01
Japan; phone 092-871-6631; facsimile 092-864-2904
A Simulation Based on a Self-Referential Model of
Organizational Intelligence
Toshizumi Ohta 1
Abstract. Interactions between managers and subordinates were analyzed, within the
context of a self-referential system, using data derived from an actual opinion survey.
As a result, three patterns were obtained that can be understood as stable reaction
patterns. Each of these patterns can be considered as a loop having its own identity, in
which the manager's behavior and reaction of his subordinates are made stable. We find
here an example of a self-referential system endowed with its own identity in a group or
an organization. The existence of these three loops suggests various problems to be
resolved, and they are essential for an understanding of any self-referential system.
However, there are also issues regarding non-constant aspects about these loops. The
question to be asked in this connection is the following: if there arises any confusion in
the group at some point of time, how will the confusion be cleared away? Will it be
settled by being shifted or passed on to another loop, or by the effect of some
compensatory actions? In order to examine transitions between these loops and production of new loops, a simulation model of interactions between managers and subordinates can be effective in discussing a new problem solving capacity of organizations
or organizational intelligence.
1 Department of Knowledge-Based Information Engineering, The Toyohashi University
of Technology, 1-1 Tempaku, Toyohashi, 441 Japan; phones 0532-47-0111 (w) 0532-470536 (h); facsimile 0532-47-5301; e-mail ohta@mieLtutkie.tut.ac.jp
Assembled Abstracts
337
Business Games in Managerial Training/Development
and the Transition to a Free Market Economy
Eduard Riidiiceanul
Abstract. Some considerations concerning the general situation of the Romanian
economy and society are presented to better understand the major changes in the
approach to management training and development there. This paper examines several
business-games developed by the author that have been used successfully over a long
period of time in management training/development programs. The paper then evaluates efforts and directions for adaptation or even complete change in Romanian
society. Finally, the paper emphasizes the utility of active, participative methods of
management teaching/learning, such as business games, complex case studies, and
simulation models, as well as how these methods may accelerate the implementation of
economic reform.
1 Institutul
Roman de Management, §os. Odai no.20, Bucure§ti 71601, Romania;
(home) str. Aleea Circului Dr. 2, sc.l, ap.95, Bucure§ti, Romania; phones 335250/13 (w)
100882 (h); facsimile 334902
A Simplified Simulation Model for Country Risk
Evaluation
Kanji Satol
Abstract. Country risk evaluation (CRE) models have been used to aid decision makers
.to determine whether to invest in particular countries or not. Recently, CRE models
have started evolving into more sophisticated and rather complex models. However,
there is doubt about the necessity of their complexity. In this paper, a new simplified
CRE model is proposed and simulation results are compared with an existing CRE
model. The proposed model is simple enough to be used by novice users and easily
expandable. Analysis of the simulation result also suggests that the proposed CRE
model may perform as well as a complex model. Lastly, some findings from this study
are discussed as future research directions.
1 Information and Computer Science, College of Business Administration, Soka
University, 1-236 Tangi, Hachioji, Tokyo, Japan; phone 0426-91-2211; facsimile 042628-0582
338
Assembled Abstracts
Analysis and Simulation of Credential Competition
Hiroyuki Shiraishi l
Abstract. In most advanced nations, educational background (i.e., credentials) has come
to be all important. This report sketches a model of credential competition in Japan
and shows the negative influences caused by credentialism. Individual workers' traits,
talents, and skills are not directly observable, so employers use credentials as one of the
most important signals when screaning. In our model, workers with higher credential
produce more output. Higher credentials result in higher wages, because of the added
production and also the higher estimate of individual ability. This all provides incentives
for workers to pretend their credentials are higher than they are in reality. Private
returns for additional credentials then exceed the additional output. Furthermore,
individual workers are spurred on by knowing that they share the output of workers of
greater ability in a group of workers with higher credentials. In the model, there are
four different classes of workers. The utility of workers of class n (Un) depends upon
the goods they consume (G) and the credential group to which they belong (E). The
core of this simulation can be written:
Un = G - E - 3/8 (E - n? n = 1 ... 4
where 3/8 is the fraction representing the ordeal of moving to an upper credential
group. The conclusion of this simulation is that everyone except workers of one class
are working in a group higher than the optimum.
1 Faculty of Economics, Graduate School of Tokyo University, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyoku, Tokyo, 113 Japan; phone 03-3812-2111
Strategy Formation in Universities: Changing Strategic
Decision Processes of Loosely Coupled Systems
Through Information Technologies
Shigehisa Tsuchiya l
Abstract. It has been widely accepted among organizational researchers and practicing
administrators that "loose-coupling" and "garbage-can models" are accurate descriptions of organization and decision making in universities and colleges. They all agree
that strategy formation is difficult in loosely coupled organizations. According to the
dominant theory, organizations in times of crisis should tighten up their couplings and
adopt centralized analytical strategies. However, since the characteristic feature of
university decision making is ambiguity, if they become tightly coupled, universities will
lose sensitivity and flexibility to the environment and fail to adapt themselves to
environmental changes. Through intensive case studies of a private college, I have
developed and verified new hypotheses: information technologies can improve strategic
1 Chiba Institute of Technology, 17-1 Tsudanuma 2-Chome, Narashino, Chiba, 275
Japan; phones 0474-78-0215 (w) 03-3262-3230 (h); facsimile 0474-78-0259; e-mail
NIFTY-Serve NBD03024
Assembled Abstracts
339
decision processes at universities and enable them to formulate and implement effective
strategies without tightening the couplings. Unfortunately, university administrators in
Japan have no concern for utilizing information technology in management. I want to
make ISAGA'91 an occasion to change their attitude.
Concept Formation Model of the Shape of
Two-Dimensional Multimodal Functions and
Its Application to Optimization
Mitsuru Tsukamoto!, Katsuari Kamei2, and Kazuo Inoue 3
Abstract. This paper describes a method of concept formation of human beings and its
application to optimization. Human beings are able to grasp general shapes with only a
small amount of information by using heuristics and fuzziness. We use the words
"TOP," "SIDE," and "BOTIOM" of the mountain as basic concepts for representing
a two-dimensional multimodal shape. The basic concepts for each point on a surface are
defined by "IF-THEN" rules. First, a maximal point search experiment is carried out
and the concept formation proceeding is observed. Secondly, the heuristical algorithm
of human subjects is extracted. Next, the algorithm is represented using some simple
rules. Finally, the human subjects' shape-grasping process is simulated on a computer.
The results are comparable to concepts of shape formed by human subjects, so the
similarity between them can be confirmed. The proposed method is useful in making a
machine-oriented concept formation of shape such as a topographic map.
1 Department of Computer Science and Systems Engineering, Faculty of Science and
Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Tojiin Kita, Kita-ku, Kyoto, 603 Japan; phone
75-465-1111 ext. 3792; facsimile 75-465-8239; e-mail inouelab@cs.ritsumei.ac.jp
2Address as l ext. 3663; e-mail kamei@cs.ritsumei.ac.jp
3 Address as l ext. 3664; e-mail inoue@cs.ritsumei.ac.jp
A Classroom Simulator for Computer Language
Education
K. Tsushima, H. Kaga\ and K. FujiP
Abstract. A training system called "Classroom Simulator" for unexperienced teachers
and tutors of the BASIC language tutorial has been developed. The system can simulate
the personal computer of individual students using history files from an actual classroom. The teacher can learn how to correct individual student's mistakes. and so on in a
tutorial situation.
1 Faculty of Engineering, Osaka Electro-Communication University, 18-8 Hatsucho,
Neyagawa, Japan; phone 0720-24-1131
2Dept. of General Education, Osaka University, Matikaneyama, Toyonaka, Japan;
phone 06-844-1151
340
Assembled Abstracts
One Step Beyond: Problems with Traditional Game
Evaluation
Bart van Linder!
Abstract. Game designers claim to deal with complex problems. However, they sometimes treat complex problems as if they were simple problems, thereby destroying all
kinds of rich resources, like local variation, which are needed to cope with complex
problems. In this paper I argue that this approach is partly due to the traditional
methodology of evaluating and designing games. New, less traditional, ways have to be
opened up. As a first step, three new criteria are introduced for the evaluation of an
externally structured game called SWITCHER.
1 University of Amsterdam, Center for Innovation and Cooperative Technology
(CICT), Grote Bickersstraat 72, 1013 KS Amsterdam; phone 20-525-1233; facsimile
20-525-1211; e-mail BarLvaILLinder@ooc.uva.nl; Counterpart Business Consultants,
Carnegielaan 4-14, 2517 KH Den Haag, The Netherlands; phone 70-356-0828; facsimile
70-360-7599
Automating Model Formulation for Decision Support
Ajay S. Vinze and Arun Sen!
Abstract. Many still believe that model formulation is a by-product of selecting a proper
problem or tool representation technique. The recent trend is to divorce model formulation from model execution and study it separately. By automating the model formulation process, we create an internal representation of the formulated model. In this
paper, we discuss an architecture that has been developed to support the model formulation process. Model formulation in our context is defined as the process that helps
transform a problem description into a solvable algebraic notation. The problems being
focused on are transportation problems in the production planning domain. As a first
step, a brief overview to a cognitive model developed by the authors for the model
formulation process is discussed. Design features extracted from this cognitive model
for facilitating the automation of the model formulation process are presented. The
architecture is based on the blackboard paradigm and attempts to capture the nuances
of the cognitive model. A prototype has been developed using this architecture, which
bears out the viability of the approach.
1 Department of Business Analysis and Research, College of Business Administration,
Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843-4217; phone (409) 845-1616; facsimile
(409) 845-5653; e-mail VINZE@TAMCBA.bitnet, SEN@TAMCBA.bitnet
Assembled Abstracts
341
A Simulation Approach to Process Modeling in
Information Systems Analysis and Design
Rosemary H. Wild! and Kenneth A. Griggs2
Abstract. Typical modeling techniques for information system analysis and design treat
key system requirement parameters as static. In addition, system dynamics reflected in
time-path behavior, such as queues and bottlenecks, are not captured in traditional
information system process models. A more realistic approach to information system
analysis and design, which would allow decision makers to make more informed choices
on information system design alternatives, might be to include the dynamic aspects of a
system and to model those components for which uncertainty exists in a probabilistic
fashion. In this paper we propose a paradigm for integrating conventional process
modeling in systems analysis and design with simulation modeling and analysis techniques. Simulation analysis enhances the modeling process by allowing systems analysts
to experiment with and analyze alternative system designs. In addition, by including the
distributional characteristics and, thus, the variability of key system parameters in the
model, sensitivity analysis may be performed and the robustness of alternative system
designs can be explored. Our proposed methodology for information system analysis
and design is illustrated with an example of an order entry information system.
1 Decision Science Department, University of Hawaii, 2404 Maile Way, Honolulu,
Hawaii 96822; phone (808) 956-7714; facsimile (808) 956-3261; e-mail
wild@uhccvx.uhcc.edu
2 Address
as 1; phone (808) 956-7494; facsimile (808) 956-3261; e-mail
griggs@uhccvx.uhcc.edu