EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY OF AFROMONTANE FOREST: IMPLICATION ON Schefflera abyssinica (COMMON BEE TREE), A CASE IN SOUTHWEST ETHIOPIAN HIGHLANDS. By Shabu Jemal 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Background and Justifications Climate change is a major global threat(Eliasch 2008). Obviously, the rising of the concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly of carbon dioxide so strong influence over ecological functions, and critical impacts on forests ecosystem (FAO 2019).As global climate change has a large effect on the structure and function of vegetation, it is very important to understand how forests in climate transition regions respond to climate change(Ding, Liang, and Peng 2019;Morin et al. 2018).The response of forests to the forecasted increase in climate stress occurrence is considered a key issue in affecting ecosystem functioning through impacts on plant physiology and vegetation dynamics in many parts of the world resulting in changes of global forest productivity (Morin et al. 2018;Felipe et al. 2008;Reyer 2015; Eliasch 2008).These leads to forest decline in productivity influencing by climate change activities at global scale(Yitebitu Moges 2010). On the other hands, ecosystem services consider environmental, social and economic sustainability which lacks attentions. Thus, a web-based modeling platform that helps to assist rapid ecosystem service assessment and valuation through existing ecological models to simulate ecosystem service flows is required in order to ensure forest ecosystem productivity(Covey 2014). Indeed, forest could modify microclimate, leading to improve ecosystem services(Jenkins and Schaap 2018;Peterson and Soberón 2012). Thus, mapping of pollination related ecosystem services is one of the key issues under climate change scenarios. Because pollinators, especially bees, are facing many threats, from loss of habitat and due to climate change facets (Picanço et al. 2017;Sanou and Isasa 2015). 1| of 6 Commonly, forest provides excellent resources for bees and beekeeping, and bees are a vital part of forest ecosystems(MEFCC 2018b;Adeoye 2016). Bees are essential for sustaining our environment because they pollinate flowering plants and conserves biological biodiversity along with their products (Adeoye 2016).Many studies of forest ecosystems have correlated that recent climate trends with changes in phenology and forest productivity (Rosenzweig et al. 2007). Particularly changes in phenology can affect ecological relationships, creating a mismatch between plant flowering time and presence of insect pollinators. Thus, plant and insect phenologies are affected by different climatic cues(Lawson and Rands 2019; Res et al. 2008). Apart from this, floral nectar is a vital resource for pollinators as well as honey productions, thus having a very important role in ecosystem functioning and high economic value(Hill 1995) though beekeepers are not aware about, local forage of the bees and nectar flow under climate change (Elzaki 2020).Nevertheless one indication of forest productivity loss are the declining of nectar production of bee trees causing inability of flowers to secrete enough nectar for bees to transform it into honey (Reyer 2015; Hill 1998). Thus, the ongoing climate warming could have a negative effect on nectar secretion and alter the timings of phenological phases(Lawson and Rands 2019). In turn, decreased nectar secretion, together with shifts in flowering phenology can disrupt plant–pollinator interactions and consequently affect the entire ecosystem(Morin et al. 2018).Therefore estimating the potential nectar production of most bee loved tree is current issue to predict future forest productivity dynamic in a climate transition and essential for livelihoods improvement (Lowore, Meaton, and Wood 2018). Even though, there are still many important bee plants for which nectar secretion and its significance for honey production have not yet been documented in Ethiopia in general, south west parts in particular. These plants include one of the most important beloved tree species ‘schefflera abyssinica’ (Azene et al. 1993; Fichtl and Admassu Addi, 1994) which is common in southwest Ethiopia. Furthermore the climate change effect on its productivity and disturbance of its phenological characteristics with combinations of mapping and assessments of ecosystem services (MAES)(Maes J et al.2013), are the most recent scientific gaps wanted to be studied. Hence the integration of multi and hyper spectral scenarios to existing climate change effect implication on forest productivity decline is pivotal and are still quite limited. 2| of 6 1.2. Objectives of the study 1.2.1. General Objective  To provide detail information’s on the effects of climate change on potential productivity of schefflera abyssinica tree and mapping and assessing of ecosystem services in afromontane forest of southwestern Ethiopia. The intension is to investigate the effects of climate change on forest productivity implications on common bee tree at different forest management types. 1.2.2. Specific Objectives  To determine the potential ability of nectar productions  To assess the climate change effect on phenological characteristics of tree and its impact on nectar secretion potential  To record micro climate factors that governs the environment and identify anthropogenic activities practiced in forest management types  To map and assess the ecosystem services (pollination services) under climate change scenarios  To identify role of tree in ecosystem (wildlife habitat) improvement 1.3.Research Questions  Does climate change impact on tree productivity mainly bee loved tree in the southwestern Ethiopia?  What are the micro climate factors governs the environments with anthropogenic actions that are aggravating the climate change activities in the southwestern Ethiopia?  How do climate effect disturbs the phenological characteristics of schefflera abyssinica consequently on its nectar production?  How do schefflera abyssinica tree contribute to ecosystem functions and used to buffer smallholder farmers (i.e. honey production) against adverse impacts of climate variability?  What are the roles and benefits of MAES for the societies?  Is schefflera abyssinica tree can be attract wildlife and host for their habitat specifically? 3| of 6 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1. Description of the study area The study will be conducted in south western part of Ethiopia in Gera forest. First baseline information (i.e. forest management types) will be identified. 2.2. Sampling design For this study afromontane forest (coffee forest, intensively managed coffee forest and undisturbed natural forest) Hwang, Hundera, and Mekuria (2020) management type types will be considered. Permanent plots will be established and identification of the plot will be carried out by using landsat imagery. To find schefflera abyssinica tree per plot a 200m x 200m plot will be established in each selected forest management types. After that three schefflera abyssinica tree will be marked as representative. Accordingly, 30 plots independently will be laid out for data collection, which means 90 plots and 270 individual trees for the whole study for three years. 2.2. Data collection Nectar production: Nectar sampling will be taken from marked tree during its first flowering season (February-March). It will be sampled from three randomly taken flowers per plant using Drummond microcaps R and only sampled fresh flowers will be removed on Day 2, 24 hr prior to sampling by following Takkis, Tscheulin, and Petanidou (2018) methods. Flower buds per plant were selected randomly and were bagged one day prior to anthesis using cheesecloth bags for each observation period(Lowore et al. 2018). The total branch of the tree will be counted and total nectar production will be estimated. The micro climate factors (soil moisture and humidity) will be recorded seasonally. The phenological characteristics (early or late flowering) and its quality will be collected from the entire representative tree by visually and measuring the flower buds. MAES a recent model of ecosystem services ( pollination services) in south west Ethiopia, simulating climate change events to predict resulting marginal changes in pollination services will be collected by using H. Ricketts, Taylor; Lonsdorf, Eric (2016) methods. 2.3. Data analysis All the results will be subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA). All statistical computations except ecosystem services data will be made by using SPSS V 23 computer software. But the MAES will be analyzed by using InVEST_3.8.5_x86 (https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest-models/crop-pollination).The 4| of 6 software least significant difference (LSD) at P≤0.05 will be used to determine statistically significant differences within each variable of forest management types. We will conduct paired t-tests to test for significant differences in nectar secretion potential of all tree and different microclimate factors at each forest type. All situations will be continued for two years. 3. Expected Out Puts 1) The potential effect of potential climate change on forest productivity on forest will be determined and predicted. 2) Nectar secretion per tree will be recorded and documented to value the role of tree in ecosystem and improving livelihoods. 3) Environmental factors (Elevation, Temperature, humidity) that will aggravate the climate change effect at each forest management systems will be identified. 4) Ecosystem assessment model will be developed and applicable and well identified and known. 4. Beneficiaries Beneficiaries of the research are Farmers, Ecologists, Environmentalists, Foresters, climatologists, conservation biologist, Apiarist, Biologists, policy makers, wildlife managers and etc. Research rationale: This draft PhD research proposal is based on a three years study on forestry that will be sponsored by Sida. The dissertation will be published on high quality international publisher and also explains the underlying climate science. This PhD study seeks to build upon research and literature while seeking to make a unique quantitative and qualitative contribution in forestry sectors. The improvement will be done with respective supervisors. Total Budget= 660,000$ 5| of 6 References Adeoye, Temitope. 2016. ‘Mitigating Effects of Climate Change and Deforestation on Bees With Respect to Their Ecology and Biology’. (October 2015). Covey, Kristofer. 2014. Forests in a Changing Climate : A Sourcebook for Integrating REDD + into Academic Programmes. Ding, Yongxia, Siqi Liang, and Shouzhang Peng. 2019. ‘Sustainability Climate Change A Ff Ects Forest Productivity in a Typical Climate Transition Region of China’. Eliasch, Johan. 2008. Climate Change : Financing Global Forests : The Eliasch Review. London: Earthscan in the UK and USA. Elzaki, Elsamoal. 2020. ‘Economic Evaluation of the Honey Yield from Four Forest Tree Species and the Future Prospect of the Forest Beekeeping in Sudan’. Agroforestry Systems 94(3):1037–45. FAO. 2019. State of Forests of the Caucasus and Central Asia ‘Overview of Forests and Sustainable Forest Management in the Caucasus and Central Asia Region’. New York and Geneva. Felipe Bravo, Valerie LeMay, Robert Jandl, Klaus von Gadow. 2008. Managing Forest Ecosystems: The Challenge of Climate Change. Springer Science + Business Media, B.V. Hill, Deborah B. 1995. ‘Apiculture and Forestry ( Bees and Trees )’. (November 2018). Hill, Deborah B. 1998. ‘Pollination and Honey Production in the Forest and Agroforest 1’. Hwang, Byongjun, Kitessa Hundera, and Bizuneh Mekuria. 2020. ‘Intensified Management of Coffee Forest in Southwest Ethiopia Detected by Landsat Imagery’. 1–21. Jenkins, Michael and Brian Schaap. 2018. ‘Forest Ecosystem Services’. (c). Lawson, David A. and Sean A. Rands. 2019. ‘The Effects of Rainfall on Plant – Pollinator Interactions’. Arthropod-Plant Interactions 13(4):561–69. Lowore, Janet, Julia Meaton, and Adrian Wood. 2018. ‘African Forest Honey : An Overlooked NTFP with Potential to Support Livelihoods and Forests’. Environmental Management 15–28. MEFCC. 2018. National Forest Sector Development Program ,Ethiopia:PROGRAM PILLARS, ACTION areas and targets. vol. ii. Morin, Xavier, Lorenz Fahse, Hervé Jactel, Michael Scherer-lore, and Raúl García-. 2018. ‘Long-Term Response of Forest Productivity to Climate Change Is Mostly Driven by Change in Tree Species Composition’. (March):1–12. Peterson, A. Townsend and Jorge Soberón. 2012. ‘Species Distribution Modeling and Ecological Niche Modeling : Getting the Concepts Right’. 10(December):102–7. Picanço, Ana, Artur Gil, François Rigal, and Paulo A. V Borges. 2017. ‘Pollination Services Mapping and Economic Valuation from Insect Communities : A Case Study in the Azores ( Terceira Island ) Pollination Services Mapping and Economic Valuation from Insect Communities : A Case Study in the Azores ( Terceira Island )’. (May). Res, Clim, Hideyuki Doi, Oscar Gordo, and Izumi Katano. 2008. ‘Heterogeneous Intra-Annual Climatic Changes Drive Different Phenological Responses at Two Trophic Levels’. 36:181–90. Reyer, Christopher. 2015. ‘Forest Productivity Under Environmental Change — a Review of Stand-Scale Modeling Studies’. 53–68. Sanou, Irene Calderón- and Emilie Isasa. 2015. ‘The Effect of Climate Change on Plant Mutualistic Interactions’. 1–8. Takkis, Krista, Thomas Tscheulin, and Theodora Petanidou. 2018. ‘Differential Effects of Climate Warming on the Nectar Secretion of Early- and Late-Flowering Mediterranean Plants’. 9(June):1– 13. Yitebitu Moges, Zewdu Eshetu and Sisay Nune. 2010. Ethiopian Forest Resources: Current Status and Future Management Options in View of Access to Carbon Finances. 6| of 6