MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 325...
   
   VALID 222048Z - 222245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 325 CONTINUES.
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN
   MO INTO SERN KS. A MODIFIED 19Z SGF SOUNDING USING OBSERVED SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE DRYLINE YIELDS OVER 5000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH A
   300 MB LI OF -19C. ALSO DEPICTED IN THIS SOUNDING...AND ON NDS AND
   CNW PROFILERS...IS 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP VEERING LOW LEVEL
   FLOW...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. EXISTING STORMS WILL
   PERSIST WITH AN EXTREME HAIL THREAT AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF
   CYCLIC TORNADOES.
   
   TO THE S...A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD REMAINS OVER NERN OK...AND SWD
   ACROSS ERN OK WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN EXCESS OF 72 F. HERE...SBCAPE
   IS AVERAGING 5500-6000 J/KG. HKL AND PRC PROFILERS ALSO INDICATE
   INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO 50-60 KTS ABOVE 9 KM. STRONG
   HEATING PERSISTS NEAR THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK.
   TOWERING CU PERSIST ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DO
   FORM WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND HAVE A THREAT OF
   TORNADOES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35239402 35239668 38769406 38759127 35239402