When Manchester United kicked off their Champions League campaign at Bayern Munich on 20 September, it was impossible to ignore the sense of foreboding. The season had started badly – three Premier League defeats in five – and the priority at the Allianz Arena was not, seemingly, to win or draw but to avoid humiliation.
The 4-3 defeat was a seven‑goal thriller in name only, Bayern comfortable once in front, their superiority pronounced over a United team unable to fire in more than fits and starts. Still, it was not a disaster for United. They knew their Champions League progress would not rest on this match.
As United departed the competition on Tuesday night, rock bottom of Group A, without even the consolation of a drop into the Europa League, it was after another one-goal defeat by Bayern, this time 1-0 at Old Trafford. Again, the Bundesliga champions were just too good. Already qualified for the last 16 as group winners, they lacked cutting edge, those do‑or‑die imperatives that bring the best out of the very best. Which was a relief for United.
It was a strange occasion, so lacking in basic excitement. The Bayern manager, Thomas Tuchel, had talked beforehand of the “electricity” of Old Trafford. Well, the lights were on but …
United brought what they had at the outset, pressing hard, throwing themselves into tackles, playing for the shirt – and the manager, Erik ten Hag. But it was as if everybody in the stands knew it would not be enough. The home crowd seemed resigned to their fate. There was no sustained anger at the end, just a brief bit of booing from those who had stayed. At least it was not a humiliation.
This is where United are amid an increasingly wayward season; how far they have fallen. Whenever they have played anyone of note, they have lost. When United look at the Premier League table, they can count only one scalp from the top half – that of 10th‑placed Fulham, against whom they burgled a stoppage-time 1-0.
The damage to their Champions League hopes was done before Tuesday; in the home and away games against Copenhagen and Galatasaray, each one a mini-epic, although United’s points haul did not keep pace with the high levels of drama.
They have come to measure defeats by their severity, in relative terms, rather than the defeats themselves, which is the sign of a club going nowhere, one that is losing hope.
The broader question concerns the salvage operation over the second half of the season and whether that will allow Ten Hag to cling to his job. At best, United have a top-four or top-five place to secure, another Champions League campaign to set up, though it would be an irony if fifth were not enough because the club’s European woes had lowered England’s coefficient. There is also the FA Cup.
By any objective analysis, Ten Hag has to be approaching borrowed time. The Bayern defeat was United’s 12th of the season; across Europe’s five major leagues, only Burnley, Almería and Union Berlin have lost more games.
The good news for Ten Hag is that, to put it bluntly, there is nobody to sack him at present, as the club waits for Sir Jim Ratcliffe to complete the purchase of a 25% stake from the Glazer family and assume control of the sporting side of the operation.
United have an interim chief executive in Patrick Stewart, the chief legal officer, after Richard Arnold stepped down and it is unlikely the football department, headed by John Murtough, would act as they are about to hand over to Ratcliffe’s people.
Does Ten Hag deserve to remain in situ for the remainder of the season? The question speaks, in part, to what he was able to do last season when he had better luck with injuries. Also, to the risk and disruption of a mid-season change. It did not work out when United did it previously, bringing in Ralf Rangnick for Ole Gunnar Solskjær in December 2021. There are unhappy players. Of course, there are. But it is difficult to say precisely how many. Match-going fans, meanwhile, have not turned. They remain remarkably supportive.
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Things can change quickly. They did for Solskjær, the tipping point being the 5-0 home defeat against Liverpool. And, right on cue, Ten Hag has Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday – the scene of his darkest hour, the 7-0 mauling last March. Ten Hag recovered from that. It was viewed as an outlier against the overall arc of progress. The climate is different now.
United will travel nervously, given their form and what has become a selection crisis. It was interesting to hear Ten Hag lament the club’s injury problems on Monday and particularly those in defence. For Ten Hag, everything starts at the back, not only in terms of keeping out the opposition but the way he wants to set the play in an attacking sense.
United’s best football last season came when they punched their way up through the thirds with synchronised movements, incisive first-time passes, getting into spaces between the lines. Luke Shaw was fundamental at left-back, often driving with the ball and linking with Marcus Rashford on the wing in front of him.
The cohesion has been less evident this season, less sustained, and it is worth noting that each time in the Champions League, Ten Hag was forced to make two personnel changes to his back four from the previous tie – and, sometimes, use defenders in different positions as well. It has been no basis for solidity and bedding in a new goalkeeper with a new style in André Onana.
Ten Hag was without the injured Lisandro Martínez, Victor Lindelöf and Tyrell Malacia against Bayern. Then he lost Harry Maguire and Shaw to muscle injuries during the game. Down to the bare bones barely covers it, especially when the midfield absentees are factored in. Casemiro, Mason Mount and Christian Eriksen were injured for Bayern; Bruno Fernandes misses Liverpool through suspension.
Ten Hag faces an anxious wait on medical bulletins and the next step for him is fraught with danger. Avoiding humiliation will be the order of the day.